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Corporate Emerging Market Debt Poised to Shine in 2021 (12/15/2020)We think EM corporates will outperform EM sovereign credits ... EM investors are still largely invested in EM sovereigns, not EM corporates. The EM hard currency corporate market is dominated by Asian issuers, of which more than half are China issuers. Given the V-shaped recovery of China and the positive spillovers onto much of the region, we expect Asia to outperform other EM regions. We also expect Asian corporates to outperform corporates from all other EM regions. When you take into account a yield of about 7.4% in Asia high yield, with help of some credit spread tightening, we are looking at returns of high single digits to 10% next year.
Banks (Financials) seeing a rebound...With the two runoff wins in GA, Biden will now have both the house and senate on his side. His agenda will get thorough easier. Just today other sectors and small caps advance while the technology fell. Once the vaccine rollout quickly to vaccinate the general population we would start to return to normal perhaps by summer.
In a somewhat more forgotten corner of the Constitution is the Disqualification Clause (Section 3) of the 14th Amendment.It's time to invoke the 25th amendment.
https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/fourteenth_amendment_0Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment disqualifies an individual from serving as a state or federal official if that person has "engaged in insurrection or rebellion against" the United States. Although the clause was written in the context of the Civil War, it would theoretically still apply for members of future rebellions or insurrections against the United States.
There's an interesting footnote, literally, to this section of the Amendment. It says that in 1885 the Attorney General issued an opinion that this disqualification from holding federal office does not apply to those receiving Presidential pardons before this Amendment was adopted. Which suggests that even a pardon is insufficient to permit someone who has engaged in insurrection to hold federal office.And be it further enacted, that any person who shall hereafter knowingly accept or hold any office under the United States, or any state to which he is ineligible under the third section of the fourteenth article of amendment of the constitution of the United States, or who shall attempt to hold or exercise the duties of any such office, shall be deemed guilty of a misdemeanor against the United States, and, upon conviction thereof before the circuit or district court of the United States, shall be imprisoned not more than one year, or fined not exceeding one thousand dollars, or both, at the discretion of the court.
https://reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-removal-explainer/explainer-can-trump-be-removed-from-office-before-his-term-ends-on-jan-20-idUSKBN29C01I?il=0Frank Bowman, a professor of constitutional law at the University of Missouri, said Trump “arguably fomented sedition,” or an attempted overthrowing of the U.S. government.
But Bowman said Trump could also be impeached for a more general offence: disloyalty to the U.S. Constitution and failing to uphold his oath of office. Congress has discretion in defining a high crime and misdemeanor and is not limited to actual criminal offences.
“The essential offence would be one against the Constitution - one of essentially trying to undermine the lawful results of a lawfully conducted election,” Bowman said.
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