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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Revisiting Defensive Funds
    Taking a quick look at MWFSX, I couldn't help but notice that M* reports a rather suspiciously high SEC yield of 8.55%! Just curious how that is possible in today's low interest rate environment? Certainly raises a red flag for me.
    MWFSX : ER is a turn off for me. Wavier will expire the end of July '21 , if I'm reading fees correctly.
    I did address these, but tersely, and I concur with the concerns.
    Fees: I suggested MWFSX as an alternative to EIXIX, which has a fee waiver expiring end of Oct '21. Without speculating on the relative likelihood of either waiver being extended, it does not seem to me that this is more of a concern for MWFSX than for EIXIX.
    As stated, the high SEC yield comes from the low average weighted price of the holdings - under 90% of par. Think of YTM for a single bond. The greater the discount, the greater the YTM. The SEC yield of MWFSX is not coming from the coupons, which average 3.52%; that's not much more than EIXIX's 3.26%. EIXIX's SEC yield, while not as stratospheric, is above 5%, which is still rather rare outside of EM bonds and TIPS.
    Long duration bonds can sell at large discounts simply because there are so many below market rate semiannual coupon payments for which the discount must compensate. But when the duration is short and there's still a significant discount, that's a strong indication that you're deep into junk. Indeed, over ¼ of MWFSX's portfolio is below B, while its duration is a modest 2.94 years.
    At least I know that, because Met West (now a TCW subsidiary) is a transparent company. I know that over 60% of the portfolio securities (weighted) have durations under 1 year. I have no idea what the average credit quality or duration is of EIXIX, let alone a bar chart of credit quality or duration for its portfolio holdings. I just have to assume it's in a similar ballpark to MWFSX based on the few data points already described.
  • Revisiting Defensive Funds
    MWFSX : ER is a turn off for me. Wavier will expire the end of July '21 , if I'm reading fees correctly.
    Derf
  • Revisiting Defensive Funds
    Was looking for a HY bond fund that had held up decently ("defensive?") in 1Q 2020. Found EIXIX with a 5.5% SEC Yield.
    I took only a cursory look at EIXIX so all I've got are lots of questions, not clear statements:
    • What is the average credit rating for this fund? Is it really "high yield" aka "junk"? The annual report says:
      These securities that the Fund invests in are at or near the top of the capital structure, which make them relatively insulated from losses by the deal structure’s credit enhancement (i.e. preference over bonds junior to the respective tranche we are buying)
      It makes it sound like it's investing in the most senior tranches - the ones rated AAA before the GFC.
    • The annual report also says that it "invests primarily in ... non-agency residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS) that were created pre-crisis", i.e. legacy RMBS. By definition they're not issuing more of these. What is the size of that pool? How will the fund invest going forward?
    • What is the average duration of the portfolio? The latest semiannual report seems to show most of the holding having non-fixed rates. That would suggest a very short duration. In addition, both the annual and semiannual report tell of a smattering (< 5%) interest only securities. They have negative duration, further shortening the portfolio's average duration.
    • If most of the holdings are variable rate, which generally trade near par (little interest rate risk), what accounts for the average weighted price being just 82% of par (per M*)? This is why the SEC yield is so high - it's building in an increase in price as bonds approach maturity. (M* notes that "neither TTM nor SEC yields reflect the potential impact of future defaults.")
      Is the credit risk so severe? The annual report suggests that it is: "Legacy non-agency RMBS have measurable credit risk." It reports 18.2% of the underlying loans are 60+ days delinquent.
    I haven't read up on legacy non-agency RBMSs. So all I can do is raise these questions. I don't know which numbers are most meaningful for this type of holding or what sort of risk profile they present. As I said, questions, not answers.
    With respect to the 1Q20 performance, EIXIX had a drawdown of 13.76% between March 5 and March 25 (per M* interactive chart tool). M* provides tabular monthly data, that shows EIXIX losing 8.30% in March. Looking at an entire quarter gives you information about speed of recovery but less insight into the magnitude of risk.
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=EIXIX
    For better 1Q20, March 2020, and max drawdown (daily) figures, I might look at MWFSX. It went up in 1Q20 by 1.23% (vs EIXIX dropping 6.79%). It went down in March by 1.92% (vs. EIXIX dropping 8.30%). And it's max drawdown in 2020 was 5.57% between March 5 and March 25.
    All that said, it's fairly similar to EIXIX, and thus suffers from some of the same risk factors. Except that it has much greater transparency (you can find its portfolio statistics here), is more diversified ("only" 2/3 in securitized debt), and is managed by a first rate, well known team.
    Portfolio Visualizer comparison.
  • Revisiting Defensive Funds
    +1 jd thanks for info on HEGD-seems to compare well with JEPI and PHDG .
  • Revisiting Defensive Funds
    TGHNX lost 6.8 % in 1Q 2020.
    Thanks, Carew.
  • Revisiting Defensive Funds
    Currently, due to high equity valuations, my portfolio's limited equity exposure is confined to these three defensive funds: CTFAX, JHQAX and VWINX. For the bond portion I use CLMAX, NVHAX and RCTIX, along with the bond-like alternative fund ARBIX. The rest of my portfolio, roughly 15%, is in cash and may find a temporary home in SH, the inverse equity ETF, during the next market crash.
    Since my retirement, I have found the advice of another poster always very helpful: "I don't really need a lot more money - but I certainly don't want to lose a lot. I need to remind myself to err on the side of caution."
    In the current market environment, I am quite satisfied if my annual total return is within a range of 4 to 6%.
    Good luck, and many thanks to Lynn Bolin for his valuable contributions.
    Fred
  • Revisiting Defensive Funds
    Was looking for a HY bond fund that had held up decently ("defensive?") in 1Q 2020. Found EIXIX with a 5.5% SEC Yield. $2,500 min at VGD (TF). May be my newest addition.
    Looked at GAVAX, gave up quickly on that. Sold my SWAN and DRSK. Not sure that TMSRX is going to be a keeper.
    Holding onto my ARBIX and HRSAX.
    Recently bought some SVARX and SFHYX (Fido).
    Will keep adding to CTFAX (a keeper).
    Hiding out in various bond funds (DAAIX, EXCPX, PEGAX, FPFIX, MWFSX, etc) in the hopes equities peel back. Won't hold my breath, though.
    Merger arb is stalling a bit this month, but that sleeve will remain (BALPX, MERFX, HMEAX) intact.
    Still liking HEGD, just wish average daily volume would increase. Will add here.
    D-E-F-E-N-S-E
  • Revisiting Defensive Funds
    derf I was looking for a fund, to invest idle cash, with limited correlation to the stock and bond markets. ARBOX has a 1,000 minimum and didn't require 25k like ARBIX. By investing now, I wished to get in the fund before it closed,etc, as Schwab is notorious for listing funds as open to existing shareholders, restricted, or available for institutional customers only. My annual rate of return goal for idle cash is 50 basis points(Marcus money fund pays this) so if this fund only returns 100 or 200 basis points annually, I'm ok with that.
  • Revisiting Defensive Funds
    Hi @Rickrmf,
    I have put a lot of time into analyzing defensive funds. My ranking system is based on seven factors applied equally to every fund. After the article last month I now apply the seven factors differently to Mixed-Asset Funds, Uncorreclated Funds, and the remainder of the stock and funds. I also apply them differently to funds by MFO Risk levels. For example, I do want good performance for the Mixed Asset Funds and Uncorrelated Funds, but momentum is not a determining factor in finding these funds.
    Combining these funds can reduce volatility. You asked about GAVIX/GAVIX. It is one of my poorer performing funds in the short term but not the long term. That is the benefit of combing uncorrelated funds. Some will be up while others are down so that they do not all rise and fall at the same time. I thought about selling GAVIX, but now classify it is as an uncorrelated fund and am content with it.
    I also own COTZX/CTFAX, DIVO, ARBIX and TMSRX. You may also want to look at CDC which I also classify as an uncorrelated fund. I am working on an August article which covers this topic.
    We may well be in a year like 1998 or 2007 with good recent performance. However, Federal Debt to GDP is almost as high at during WWII. The federal deficit is also high. The rise in asset prices is due more to massive stimulus than growth. Even conservative Vanguard is estimating very low growth over the next decade due to high valuations.
    For the past 120 years the stock market has returned 6.8% plus inflation. Limiting downside risk in this environment is likely to lead to outperformance as it did following 1998 and 2007. Stimulus has also inflated expectations. Notice how Mr. Buffett always seems to be sitting on cash when the bear market arrives.
    Regards, Lynn Bolin
  • Revisiting Defensive Funds
    @Rickrmf - I don’t know anything about ARBIX (but that’s never stopped me from voicing an opinion).
    M* doesn’t appear to have a rating for it
    It scores very well on Lipper. Be aware their “rating” is actually a reflection of recent performance.
    - Performance 4/5
    - Total Return 4/5
    - Capital Preservation 5/5
    (Lipper does knock it down on expenses giving it just 1/5 in that area.)
    What I think is significant is that the “chainsaw gang” over at Max Funds
    rates it fairly highly by their standards:
    Good +74/100
    What’s really “wild” IMHO is that if you click the “Holdings” tab at Lipper you’ll see that ARBIX has a negative 50% weighting in stocks. That’s some shorting. I’ve never seen anything quite like it.
  • Reshma Kapadia, Time for Actively Managed Mutual Funds
    Great point. The FAANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google (Alphabet)) have dominated the broader US index for the past 10 years while the value stocks trailed by sizable margin until late 2020.
    As @hank suggested above, it would be a good idea to review the top 10 holdings in each funds in your portfolio on a regular basis. Case in point, the value oriented Wellington fund, VWELX, now holds: Alphabet Inc, Microsoft, Facebook and Apple among the top 10 holdings per 5/31/2021 reporting. The fund is now categorized as blend according to M*. In the same period, Wellesley Income, VWINX holds more the traditional financial, pharma and consumer staples stocks. Also Global Wellington holds only Microsoft as #4 position. Likely I will move fund away from Wellington.
  • AMG to Acquire Parnassus Funds
    Here's a more detailed history of AMG:
    https://www.referenceforbusiness.com/history2/13/Affiliated-Managers-Group-Inc.html
    Until I checked, I also thought: "Affiliates operate independently" and "AMG invests in independent investment managers and allows them to remain independent". But it surely can't be coincidence that a large number of AMG branded funds had complete management changes and sometimes radical objective changes in or around March.
    AMG is not as hands-off as I once thought.
    The firm replaced third-party subadvisors on thirteen mutual funds earlier this year as part of a broad strategy change. AMG's affiliates will now manage $5B in assets previously subadvised by these third parties.
    "'Over the past two years, we have evolved our global distribution resources and clarified our strategy for the benefit of our affiliates,’ said AMG president and chief executive Jay Horgen. ‘Focusing our US wealth platform exclusively on in-demand strategies from our affiliates will ensure that clients are choosing from highly differentiated products.'"
    Citywire
    AMG Fund Updates
  • Revisiting Defensive Funds
    Lots of ways to slice and dice this one. I did some revamping recently. (Same funds / different way of viewing) - Risk Assets (equity-centric & commodity related) are targeted at 35% of portfolio. Alternatives & Fixed Income are each targeted at 32.5%.
    Truly “defensive” to me would be the fixed income portion. Despite all the talk about rising rates, a diversified income approach concentrated in short to intermediate duration bonds (and maybe some TIPS) stands to loose less during a time of market duress than either equities or alternatives.
    However, @Rickrmf is asking, I suspect, more about the alternative type funds and @Derf seems to confirm that. A lot of people seem to view TMSRX as an “everything or nothing” option. What I do within the alternative sleeve is mandate that at least 40% be in TMSRX. The remaining 60% (or less) is split between PRPFX (which I’ve held for many years) and Invesco’s ABRZX.
    Surprisingly, TMSRX has been around for 3 years already! So throwing together TMSRX’s 3-year performance of 6% at a 40% weighting and than adding equal portions of PRPFX (12.9% for 3 years) and ABRZX (8% for 3 years) I get something in the vicinity of an 8.7% average for the 3 alternative funds working together over the past 3 years. One can look at returns for PRPFX and ABRZX farther out than 3 years, of course, if they wish.
    Like I said earlier, alternatives aren’t necessarily risk-free. But over time they should prove more stable than equity-centric or 60/40 funds. Of course, their return over longer periods should also be lower.
    Footnote: I was curious how my tracking fund PRSIX stacks up against that 8.7% return for the alternatives.
    PRSIX: 3 years +9.5% // 5 years + 8.78% // 10 years +7.7% (close)
  • Revisiting Defensive Funds
    Thanks to Charles Lynn Bolin for his attention over the past year+ to screening and using defensive funds to better position portfolios for this high valuation/low interest rate environment. I’m curious if he and/or others who may have added defensive funds over the past year think of their performance, and what you may have learned. Here are funds I’ve selected a year ago for my defensive sleeve, with some thoughts/questions. Thanks in advance for sharing. I do swap funds occasionally, and slowly, but prefer a more Buy and Hold approach.
    CTFAX: I bought it when it was positioned more aggressively, now it is almost a cash sub. Very pleased.
    GAVAX: I bought it for its very compelling risk stats. It seems to be rate sensitive? performance so-so. Thoughts currently?
    SWAN: It proved itself to me in the downturns. Recent performance has been better, concerned with rate sensitivity with all its Treasuries. I don’t think it should categorized with equities, although it does capture a portion of the S&P returns.
    TRSMX: Steady alt, like its safety. Considering adding another alt fund, ARBIX?
    I cap my % in any one fund to 10%, so there is some diversification in this sleeve as well. I also have GIBLX as a high quality ballast bond fund, which is rate sensitive. Not sure I might trade for another in the defensive sleeve and continue reducing my bond holdings.
    I do hold 40% in equity sleeve, which I reduced from 60% to further position defensively. I am investing for growth, not income, but am considering DIVO, HNDL, JEPI others for their risk/reward profiles…just not sure how to consider these in terms of portfolio allocation, perhaps income bond sleeve (even though income would be reinvested)?
    Thanks in advance for sharing,
    Rick
  • AMG to Acquire Parnassus Funds
    Here's a more detailed history of AMG:
    https://www.referenceforbusiness.com/history2/13/Affiliated-Managers-Group-Inc.html
    Until I checked, I also thought: "Affiliates operate independently" and "AMG invests in independent investment managers and allows them to remain independent". But it surely can't be coincidence that a large number of AMG branded funds had complete management changes and sometimes radical objective changes in or around March.
    M* (human) analysis of parent AMG, Nov 2020: While AMG's stronger affiliates have held up relatively well, net outflows have caused the firm and its affiliates to liquidate or merge subscale offerings, including AMG GW&K US Small Cap Growth and AMG River Road Dividend All Cap Value. In another instance, affiliate Chicago Equity Partners shuttered its business entirely, spurring a subadvisor and name change on AMG GW&K Global Allocation. Recent challenges in AMG's quantitative offerings have contributed most substantially to outflows, with shops such as AQR suffering the most.
    Here's AMG's current 55 fund lineup. Lots of recent "independent" changes this year. Maybe it's a one-off and AMG is done tinkering for awhile. (See more under Brandywine below.)
    https://www.amgfunds.com/products.html
    M* (automated) individual fund analyses:
    Beutel Goodman funds
    ADBLX (formerly AMG Managers DoubleLIne CorePlus Bond Fund, formerly ASTON/DoubleLine Core Plus Fixed Income Fund) - Although this strategy was incepted in July 2011, its listed management team turned over completely two months ago. Therefore, the fund’s historical team data is largely no longer applicable, as it’s not representative of the current strategy.
    APINX (formerly AMG Managers Pictet Int'l, formerly ASTON/Pictet Int'l) - Although this strategy was incepted in April 2014, its listed management team turned over completely two months ago ...
    Brandywine funds(Proxy Statement, April 2021): The proposed changes for the Funds, which have been approved by the Board of Trustees, are part of a strategic repositioning of the AMG Funds complex for greater alignment with AMG, in which each fund not currently subadvised by an AMG Affiliate will be transitioned to an AMG Affiliate subadviser ...
    BRWIX (formerly Brandwine fund) - Even though this strategy’s track record dates back to December 1985, there has been a high degree of turnover on the management side recently, resulting in a thorough overhaul of its listed team two months ago. Therefore, the fund’s historical team data is largely no longer applicable.
    BLUEX (formerly Brandywine Blue) - This strategy underwent a complete overhaul of its listed management team two months ago. And even though their record dates back to January 1991, it's difficult to analyze the new team until they spend more time on the strategy.
    GW&K funds
    MGFIX (formerly AMG Managers Loomis Sayles Bond) - Even though this strategy’s track record dates back to June 1984, there has been a high degree of turnover on the management side recently, resulting in a complete overhaul of its listed team two months ago ...
    MBEAX (formerly AMG Chicago Equity Partners Balanced) - The team that took over this fund in April 2020 lacks proven expertise in several elements of this strategy.
    MGGBX (formerly Managers Global Income Opportunity) - Even though this strategy’s track record dates back to March 1994, there has been a high degree of turnover on the management side recently, resulting in a complete overhaul of its listed team five months ago ...
    MECAX (formerly Managers Cadence Emerging Companies) - This strategy underwent a total overhaul of its listed management team seven months ago. And even though their record dates back to June 1993, it's difficult to analyze the new team until they spend more time on the strategy.
    SKSEX (formerly Skyline Special Equities) - Although this strategy was incepted in April 1987, its listed management team turned over completely five months ago. ...
    ASCTX (formerly ASTON/Silvercrest Small Cap) - This strategy underwent a total overhaul of its listed management team two months ago. And even though their record dates back to December 2011, it's difficult to analyze the new team until they spend more time on the strategy.
    ACWDX (formerly AMG Managers LMCG Small Cap Growth, formerly ASTON Small Cap Growth, formerly ASTON/Crosswind Small Cap Growth) - Even though this strategy’s track record dates back to November 2010, there has been a high degree of turnover on the management side recently, resulting in a complete overhaul of its listed team two months ago. ...
    Harding Loevner - majority owned by AMG, this family has been unscathed.
    (Managers) Montag & Caldwell
    MCTFX (formerly AMG Managers Montag & Caldwell Growth Fund, formerly ASTON/Montag & Caldwell Growth fund) - This strategy underwent a total overhaul of its listed management team two months ago. And even though their record dates back to November 1994, it's difficult to analyze the new team until they spend more time on the strategy.
    Pantheon - CEF, accredited investors only, acquired by AMG in 2010, not worth further investigation
    Renaissance - some funds liquidated: AMG Renaissance Int'l Equity RIEIX (2018), Masters Renaissance Large Cap Equity (2006)
    MLRTX - in 2017, AMG merged its AMG Managers Cadence Capital Appreciation Fund MPRFX into this fund.
    River Road funds
    FQUAX (formerly AMG FQ Long-Short Equity, formerly AMG FQ U.S. Equity) - This strategy underwent a total overhaul of its listed management team two months ago. And even though their record dates back to August 1992, it's difficult to analyze the new team until they spend more time on the strategy.
    CHTTX (formerly AMG Managers Fairpointe Mid Cap, formerly ASTON/Fairpointe Mid Cap) - Although this strategy was incepted in September 1994, its listed management team turned over completely two months ago ...
    TimesSquare - majority owned by AMG since 2004, this family has been unscathed
    Tweedy Browne - majority owned by AMG since 1997, this family has been unscathed. Oddly, AMG lists only one of its funds, TBGVX, in its list of current offerings.
    Veritas funds
    MGSEX (formerly Managers Special Equity) - This strategy underwent a total overhaul of its listed management team two months ago. And even though their record dates back to June 1984, it's difficult to analyze the new team until they spend more time on the strategy.
    MMCFX (formerly AMG Managers Emerging Opp) - [M* human analysis] AMG Managers Emerging Opportunities will soon undergo a complete overhaul under a new subadvisor, changing from a U.S. microcap fund to a China fund. ... As of May 21, 2021, AMG is replacing this fund's three current subadvisors with Veritas Asset Management, a London-based global investing boutique majority-owned by AMG.
    MFQAX (formerly AMG FQ Tax-Managed U.S. Equity, formerly First Quadrant Tax-Managed Equity) - Although this strategy was incepted in December 2000, its listed management team turned over completely zero months ago ....
    BLUEX - see under Brandywine, above.
    Yacktman funds - unscathed
  • The Amazon Customers Don’t See
    Re - The Amazon Customers Don’t See
    It’s the July 4th holiday and a USPS driver just delivered a $10 package to my doorstep. I already knew that Amazon contracts with the USPS for deliveries on Sundays. But making non-critical federal employees work on the July 4 holiday somehow seems beyond the pale.
  • AMG to Acquire Parnassus Funds
    @Observant1 Thanks! I own PARWX and am pleased with the PM's Billy Hwan management of the fund since Jerome Dodson stopped running it. Hwan has added more holdings, reduced fund concentration, and lowered volatility. My spouse owns the ESG BIAWX, about which David and I have written, and so we're well invested there.