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How the pandemic will change financial markets foreverQuestion: You’re not predicting outstanding returns from equities either.
Answer: No, but you will have some returns. The traditional 60/40 equity/bond split, which earned 10% a year over the past 40 to 50 years, is now down to 3½%. Even if you’re tilted to equities, you’re still not going to get 10% again. You’re going to get something below 5%, but investors really have to contemplate what their overall asset-allocation parameters will be. In a world of zero yields, Is 80/20 the way to go? Asset classes that are a hybrid between “safe” bonds and equities—such as high-yield bonds and loans, collateralized loan obligations, commercial mortgage-backed securities, convertibles, and equity and mortgage REITs—offer equity-like returns. There’s a case for emerging market debt, because I think yields will have to come down further in emerging markets as well. China is going into [J.P. Morgan’s global bond] index this year, and our longer-term view is that China is going toward zero yield.
https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/R41648.htmlThe temporary reduction in the Social Security payroll tax for employees and the self-employed has drawn mixed reactions from policymakers. Some observers express concern about the potential impact of the payroll tax reduction on Social Security’s long-term finances, despite the general revenue transfers to protect the trust funds from a loss of payroll tax revenues. These observers point out that, although the payroll tax reduction is temporary, the possibility remains that Congress could continue to extend the payroll tax reduction or make the payroll tax reduction permanent in response to political or other pressures. In addition, they maintain that the general revenue transfers to the Social Security trust funds introduce an element of general revenue financing to the Social Security program, signaling a departure from the self-financing mechanism that has been in place since the program’s enactment in the 1930s that could jeopardize the future of the program.
https://www.ssa.gov/history/Gulick.htmlWe put those pay roll contributions there so as to give the contributors a legal, moral, and political right to collect their pensions and their unemployment benefits. With those taxes in there, no damn politician can ever scrap my social security program.
Kochin, Michael S., and Levis A. Kochin. "When Is Buying Votes Wrong?" Public Choice 97, no. 4 (1998): 645-62. Accessed August 9, 2020. http://www.jstor.org/stable/30024452.To quote Justice Brennan of the United States Supreme Court, in his 1982 majority opinion in Brown v. Hartlage (456 US 56):To follow the terminology of Pamela Karlan (1994), the Constitution permits candidates to buy votes wholesale, from many voters with a single promise of political action, but not retail, from a single voter with a promise of a private side-payment.We have never insisted that the franchise be exercised without taint of individual benefit; indeed, our tradition of political pluralism is partly predicated on the expectation that voters will pursue their individual good through the political process, and that the summation of these individual pursuits will further the collective welfare. So long as the hoped for benefit is to be achieved through the normal processes of government, and not through some private arrangement, it has always been, and remains, a reputable basis upon which to cast one's ballot.
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