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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • But there's no inflation...
    everything costco is excellent, almost; wish I had put a hundred thou into the stock long ago, $10k to $5M since 1982, criminy, and yes there are better, but still
  • Stimulus checks
    According to the statute (see p. 1966 out of 5593!), this 2021 "stimulus" check is an advance of a tax credit on your 2020 return - same as the last check.
    You can't file your 2020 tax return before January 27th, which is why I think the IRS is saying that it will get all payments sent by mid January. Your tax software will have to be updated because it doesn't currently include code or worksheets to handle the second payment.
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    While not small cap, I encourage you to take a look at FSEAX which is exclusively focused on Asia and has top 10% returns for the past 1, 3, 5, and 10 year time frames for both Asia Ex-Japan and also emerging markets overall. It is the most consistent fund with strong returns that I have found in EM over the long term. Also held up well in the March downturn. Available at Schwab
  • But there's no inflation...
    Dole, Mixed Tropical Fruit Syrp Passn Fr, 15.25 Oz - slightly different name, same size, same ingredients, same nutritional content, same product of Thailand. (Label says "in light syrup and passion fruit juice".)
    Amazon Pantry: $1.21 per can, unit 1 (= $14.52/dozen).
    This product comes with various different labels with slightly different names. Just look at the first two images shown for for the same Amazon 12 pack to see two different examples. Possibly anything advertised with your label of choice commands a premium now. Or maybe they're just messing with your head.
  • Stimulus checks
    If you get the deposit on the 1st of January, 2021, is the income it ultimately is tested against income in 2021? My tax program claimed more of the 1st deposit by applying the income test to 2020 where RMDs were waived. 2019 income was originally used for the deposit. RMDs aren't waved in 2021 so if you have large RMDs like we do, will you qualify pre-RMD if you received the deposit on 31st December, 2020, but face a large reduction if you received it on 1st January 2021? (We don't need the money and think it silly to give it to us instead of more needy people. I was testing my taxes in TaxAct today to see if I needed any increase in my last quarterly estimated tax. TaxAct increased the 1st deposit and it made me wonder about the applicable tax year for the 2nd deposit.)
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    Agreed VAESX and WAEMX have high ER's. VAESX at 1.85 and WAEMX art 1.95 but their performance has been good. I prefer VAESX of the 2, M*5 vs M*4 for WAEMX.
  • January 2012 MFO Commentary is up.
    The year 2020 was a wild roller coaster ride. Hopefully 2021 is better.
  • But there's no inflation...
    March 18, 2020:
    DOLE Mixed Tropical Fruit in Light Syrup and Passion Fruit Juice, 15.25 Ounce Can (Pack of 12)
    Sold by: Amazon.com Services LLC
    $16.56
    June 24, 2020:
    DOLE Mixed Tropical Fruit in Light Syrup and Passion Fruit Juice, 15.25 Ounce Can (Pack of 12)
    Sold by: Amazon.com Services LLC
    $16.56
    Was thinking about reordering...
    Jan 3, 2021:
    DOLE Mixed Tropical Fruit in Light Syrup and Passion Fruit Juice, 15.25 Ounce Can (Pack of 12)
    Ships from and sold by Amazon.com.
    $30.99​
    Obviously Amazon has jacked up their price outrageously, yes?
    Well, maybe not-
    Jan 3, 2021:
    DOLE Mixed Tropical Fruit in Light Syrup and Passion Fruit Juice, 15.25 Ounce Can (Pack of 12)
    Walmart
    $47.87
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    I noticed MEASX several years ago.
    The fund performed exceedingly well within its category the first three full calendar years.
    12-31-2016
    3 Yr return: 10.9% (top 2% of category);
    standard deviation of 8.91%
    MEASX seems to be in a slump since 2017.
    05-31-2020
    3 Yr return: -13.8% (bottom percentile); 5 Yr return: -4.0% (bottom percentile);
    standard deviation of 21.40%
    Note: Morningstar moved MEASX from the 'Pacific/Asia ex-Japan Stock' category
    to the 'Miscellaneous Region' category sometime after May 31, 2020.
  • Dodge & Cox Emerging Markets Stock Fund update
    That's a good point - I don't know how the author arrived at 6%.
    As you mentioned, the D&C Fact Sheet from September 30 indicates that 19.8% of the fund's assets are allocated to emerging markets. The Semi-Annual Report from June 30 implies that 19.6% of the fund's assets are in emerging markets.
    Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) 12.7%
    Latin America 3.9%
    Africa 2.2%
    add Russia +1.8%
    subtract Hong Kong -1.0%
  • Brexit
    The (only) land border affected is Ireland/Northern Ireland, and an exception was made to make sure things flow freely there--- after all the deliberations and efforts at cooperation between Stormont and Dublin, ever since the Good Friday Accords in the 1990s... Otherwise, I think there's a sigh of relief, because there was NOT a no-deal Brexit, after all. The British fisherman got screwed. And the "deal" that was agreed to contained precious little about how the financial sector will work things out. Direct, simple access to the EU's banks and such is no more. A unified Europe is a step further away, now. The Brits never did adopt the euro. There are one or two others who "joined" without adopting the euro, too. Anyhow, it's hard for me to imagine Europe at war with itself, AGAIN. When I was back visiting Ireland in 2009, the euro was killing me at $1.51. But look at it, now, eh? There will be no more tension in the air about the prospect of a no-deal exit. That, at least is something. A near-term consideration.
  • Decision Moose
    FYI - https://decisionmoose.com/home-page is open for free viewing until January 6th. I see that his formula has made 20% this year, primarily IMO due to switching to cash in February and back out in May (didn’t nail the March 23 low).
    Current Call

    date signal type at until at change
    -- 20-Nov-20 Hold Equal Weight (RSP) $120,931
    10 12-Nov-20 Switch to Equal Weight (RSP) CI 117.46 31-Dec 127.54 8.58% $111,374
    9 6-Nov-20 Switch to Growth (IUSG) BS 84.30 11/12/20 83.67 -0.75% $112,212
    8 28-Oct-20 Switch to Cash (SHY) SL 86.42 11/6/20 86.38 -0.05% $112,264
    7 7-Oct-20 Switch to Momentum (MTUM) BS 149.25 10/28/20 145.8 -2.31% $114,921
    6 18-Sep-20 Switch to (SHY) SL 86.49 10/7/20 86.42 -0.08% $115,014
    5 22-May-20 Switch to Growth (IUSG) BS 67.90 9/18/20 77.93 14.77% $100,211
    4 24-Feb-20 Switch to Cash (SHY) SL 85.03 5/22/20 86.64 1.89% $98,349
    3 7-Feb-20 Switch to Growth (IUSG) CI 71.41 2/24/20 69.29 -2.97% $101,358
    2 31-Jan-20 Switch to Momentum (MTUM) CI 130.26 2/7/20 133.20 2.26% $99,121
    1 3-Jan-20 Switch to Fundamental (QUAL) CI 101.22 1/31/20 100.33 -0.88% $100,000
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    I own Grandeur Peaks - GPEOX. $3b mkt cap
    I'm considering also Matthews Emerging Asia - MEASX, $1b mkt cap
  • January 2012 MFO Commentary is up.
    "Farewell to 2020!" was particularly enjoyable.
  • Dodge & Cox Emerging Markets Stock Fund update
    " ... (DODFX), which currently has around 6% of its assets in emerging markets." Link
    DODFX has always kept a healthy slug of money in EM. As of Sept. 30th, M* reports that of the fund's 98.71% in equities, 16.09% are in emerging markets. That works out to 15.88% of its assets in EM.
    http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/summary?t=DODFX&region=usa&culture=en-US
    D&C itself reports as of Sept. 30th that the fund holds 19.8% in EM, counting holdings in Brazil, China, Mexico, Peru, Russia, South Africa, South Korea and Thailand.
    https://dodgeandcox.com/ISF_character.asp
    These two figures can be reconciled simply by deciding whether S. Korea is counted as an EM country (D&C figure) or as a developed market country (M*). The fund's largest holding, at around 4%, is Samsung.
    Where the 6% came from is anybody's guess. (Actually, my guess is that the writer added up the Latin American and African equities, forgetting about Asia and a smidgen in emerging Europe. But that's pure speculation, based on nothing but these numbers adding up to 6%.)
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    High expense ratios pose a sizable hurdle to overcome in the fund's performance. Also VAESX carries a 5% front load. The institutional share is no-load but it requires $100k at Fidelity.
    May want to consider international small cap funds which often have 10-20% EM small exposure. Matthews Asia Small Companies come to mind. Grandeur Peaks and Wasatch are good companies to research, but pay attention to the ERs.
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    VAESX or WAEMX
    I suppose the great results make up for the utterly and outrageously high ER on those two.
  • MFO Premium Webinar: Guest Lynn Bolin and Back To Basics
    Mike, I like MFO's Portfolio Tool for the metrics. I use Fidelity's because it it quick and combines funds held elsewhere. Morningstar's has some neat features, but I haven't used it in a while. The December data is available on MFO. I uploaded them into my Ranking System. Here are some of the defensive funds that I own or have written about recently. Over the past few months I sold or reduced holdings in SWAN, DRSK, IAU, and TAIL. I will cover the December Rankings in the Webinar.
    Name, Symbol, Lynn's Rank, MaxDD, APR, Rtn 3 mon, Trend, Flow, Yield, SMA10
    Aptus Defined Risk, (DRSK), 89.2, -3.1, 13.4, 0.2, 0.6, 4.5, 1.18, 5.3
    KL Allocation Inst, (GAVIX), 82, -2, 17.2, 4.9, 3, -0.1, 2.16, 11.3
    BlackRock iShares Gold, (IAU), 78.2, -10.3, 21.2, 0.2, 2.4, -0.5, 0, 12.6
    T Rowe Price Multi-Strtgy Tot Rtrn, (TMSRX), 77.1, -4.7, 10.3, 4.6, 2, 9.5, 0.83, 4.5
    Amplify BlackSwan Growth & Treas Core, (SWAN), 62.4, -5, 19.4, 5.1, 3, 0.4, 0.35, 7.8
    Invesco S&P 500 Downside Hdgd, (PHDG), 56.4, -6.2, 13.4, 0.3, 1.5, -0.1, 0.64, 14.6
    Hussman Strategic Total Return, (HSTRX), 45.3, -2, 11.4, 0.4, 0.5, -1.7, 0.52, 8.7
    ATAC Rotation Inv, (ATACX), 20.5, -8.1, 36.3, 16, 9.4, -4.4, 0.06, 29.1
    Cambria Tail Risk ETF, (TAIL), 19, -14, -4.1, -5.1, -1.7, -7.1, 0.36, 3.3
  • disconnect analyses
    I think an increase in individual investors was also a factor. Betting on stocks when sports weren’t available. - WSJ article, open for some reason
    “ 2020 will be known as the year that individual investors dove into financial markets and doubled down, ....Driving the interest was a combination of factors that started with an industrywide shift to commission-free trading in 2019 but swelled as market volatility grew. As the coronavirus rolled across the U.S., millions of new investors found themselves stuck at home, some with extra time on their hands to learn about the markets. Others, unable to bet on sports or visit casinos, found the stock market’s outsize swings presented the perfect outlet to make bets.”
    And as posted earlier this week: Market Edges Toward Euphoria, Despite Pandemic’s Toll
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/26/business/investors-bull-market-pandemic.html?referringSource=articleShare
    “ The appetite of individual investors has been an unexpected byproduct of the pandemic. For many, trading stocks started as a way to indulge their speculative itch when other avenues, such as sports gambling, were effectively shuttered.”
  • Dodge & Cox Emerging Markets Stock Fund update
    I have been disappointed with Dodge’s international strategy. DODFX has been an average performer for some time. I am skeptical about an EM offering unless they are looking to bring in a new team.
    "The following are listed on the filing as managers of the new emerging markets fund: Charles F. Pohl, Diana S. Strandberg, Mario C. DiPrisco, Sophie Chen, Rameez Dossa, and Robert S. Turley.
    Pohl, Strandberg, and DiPrisco are also named managers on the $37.1bn Dodge & Cox International Stock fund (DODFX), which currently has around 6% of its assets in emerging markets."
    Link