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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Is It Better To Have A Team Or A Single Manager Overseeing Your Fund?
    Here's a FT article discussing a 2016 CFA Financial Analysts Journal paper studying The Effect of Management Design on the Portfolio Concentration and Performance of Mutual Funds. Here, "management design" means the use of one manager or multiple managers.
    Unlike the Bloomberg column that looked only at the ten largest funds in each of three groupings, this paper used CRSP data for the whole US fund market, excluding only funds holding fewer than 10 assets, less than $500K AUM, and funds with under 12 months history.
    I think it is worth reading the paper itself (one can skim/skip the detailed analyses and focus on the plain English sections) as well as the FT piece. The paper has many observations, including:
    We showed that portfolios of funds managed by a single manager tend to have a higher degree of both within- and cross-sector concentration. A singlemanager management design, on average, achieves a better net performance and has a higher expense ratio. ...
    First, all else being equal, equity mutual fund investors may be better off selecting funds with portfolios concentrated in the top one or two stocks (relative to the stocks’ own size) within each sector. Investors could also benefit from selecting funds that are concentrated in a few industry sectors relative to the market portfolio.
    My initial impression is that while single management vs. multiple/team management tends to lead to more highly concentrated portfolios, it is that level of concentration more than the management structure that matters. Haven't read the paper carefully enough yet to verify that impression is entirely correct.
    Note also that it also observes that older funds run by long term managers tend to underperform. Your guess is as good as mine as to how one picks newer funds run by short term managers.
  • Here's what the Fed rate hike actually means for you
    @Maurice
    Short term bond funds are not going to get one much of anything in total return, as this is where the rate hikes are landing. Higher rate = lower price.....at least for an initial period, until the traders and others sort out what they want to buy to provide for some price stability.
    This chart link is for total return (6 months) for the below listed etf's. You'll note that longer term has suffered, but short term is basically flat. Short term recent remains safe, yes; but my money would return better in money market at Fido at this time.
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?TLT,LQD,IEF,HYG,AGG,SHY&p=3&O=011000

    June 14, Today returns, after the short end rate hike:
    TLT
    20+ Year Treas Bond Ishares ETF
    +0.83%
    LQD
    Invst Grade Corp Bond Ishares Iboxx $ ETF
    +0.45%
    IEF
    7-10 Year Treas Bond Ishares ETF
    +0.32%
    HYG
    High Yield Corp Bond Ishares Iboxx $ ETF
    +0.29%
    AGG
    US Aggregate Bond Ishares Core ETF
    +0.26%
    SHY
    1-3 Year Treasury Bond Ishares ETF
    +0.04%
  • This Rare 10.5% Dividend Won't Be Cheap For Long
    I happen to own USA as a small percentage (<2.0%) of my dividend growth portfolio. I couldn't afford to buy many of their top holdings outright so I saw this as a way to gain a foothold while getting a little back in return. The author stated that it is run by 5 managers however the company website says: "Multi-managed fund that allocates its portfolio assets on an approximately equal basis among several independent investment organizations (currently three in number) having different investment styles and/or strategies recommended and monitored by ALPS Advisors, Inc., the Fund's investment advisor."
    As Lewis noted nearly all of the return comes from LT capital gains. The last time it returned capital was in 2014 and that was roughly $0.07/share.
  • Here's what the Fed rate hike actually means for you
    For income investors, the yields on saving accounts and CDs are improving with 0.25% rate hike yesterday. Two additional rate hikes are expected for 2018.
    While the average interest rate on a savings account is still only 0.09 percent, some top-yielding savings accounts are now as high as 2 percent, up from 1.1 in 2015
    https://msn.com/en-us/money/markets/heres-what-the-fed-rate-hike-actually-means-for-you/ar-AAyB7Q1?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp
  • Salient Adaptive Growth Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1535174/000119312518191657/d602674d497.htm
    497 1 d602674d497.htm 497
    SALIENT MF TRUST
    Supplement dated June 13, 2018
    to the Salient Adaptive Growth Fund Class A, Class C and Class I Prospectus and Salient Adaptive Growth Fund
    Statement of Additional Information
    each dated May 1, 2018, as supplemented
    NOTICE OF LIQUIDATION OF SALIENT ADAPTIVE GROWTH FUND
    On June 8, 2018, the Board of Trustees of Salient MF Trust (the “Trust”), including all of the Trustees who are not “interested persons” of the Trust (as that term is defined in the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended), approved the liquidation of the Salient Adaptive Growth Fund (the “Fund”), a series of the Trust. The Fund will be liquidated pursuant to a Board-approved Plan of Liquidation on or around August 13, 2018 (the “Liquidation Date”). On the Liquidation Date, the Fund will distribute pro rata to its respective shareholders of record as of the close of business on the business day preceding the Liquidation Date all of the assets of the Fund in complete cancellation and redemption of all of the outstanding shares of beneficial interest, except for cash, bank deposits or cash equivalents in an estimated amount necessary to (i) discharge any unpaid liabilities and obligations of the Fund on the Fund’s books on the Liquidation Date, including, but not limited to, income dividends and capital gains distributions, if any, payable through the Liquidation Date, and (ii) pay such contingent liabilities as the officers of the Trust deem appropriate.
    IN LIGHT OF THE PLANNED LIQUIDATION, EFFECTIVE ON JUNE 14, 2018, SHARES OF THE SALIENT ADAPTIVE GROWTH FUND WILL NO LONGER BE OFFERED TO NEW INVESTORS OR EXISTING INVESTORS (EXCEPT THROUGH REINVESTED DIVIDENDS) OR BE AVAILABLE FOR EXCHANGES FROM OTHER FUNDS OF THE TRUST.
    PLEASE KEEP THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
    ****
    SUPP ADP GRWTH LIQ 06132018
  • Anyone own Wintergreen (WGRNX)?
    @BrianW
    The Evermore Global Value Fund (the “Fund”) is a series of Evermore Funds Trust, an investment company registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940. The Fund offers two share classes — an Investor Class (EVGBX) and an Institutional Class (EVGIX). The Fund’s shares are currently available on over 50 mutual fund platforms, including Charles Schwab, Fidelity, TD Ameritrade, Pershing, LPL, UBS, RBC, etc.
    Derf
  • Anyone own Wintergreen (WGRNX)?
    I sold WGRNX in the downturn. Trying to buy it ever since, but never made it.
    Evermore Global - I've always felt this fund is more hype than anything. Other's may beg to differ. I did own it briefly in the past. Be ready for many years of underperformance. Like I keep saying when you buy more important than what you buy. Good for those who bought at right time. If we take a look at WGRNX you will see the same thing.
    image
    Please nobody say these funds are not in the same "category". IF both managers are following Michael Price, they are going wherever "value" is. They need to be compared together. As always, we look at recent performance, Morningstar rating and 5 and change our minds. We just pretend we know what we are doing.
    STILL, if you want to compare EVGBX against its category the chart does that for you as well. Look at the beginning of the chart, and tell me honestly you would have held on to that fund.
    PS - I'm actually building a position in MDISX and MQIFX
  • Anyone own Wintergreen (WGRNX)?
    @hank: I agree. Not sure if the 'deep value' has been the problem, however. There are other funds/teams employing a value strategy and not having the same issue as Winters. It is true that growth has been on a tear lately, but I'm heavily into value and have still been able to capture 88% of the upside returns (portfolio vs s&p 500). I too invested in 05 and bailed after his failure to protect in 08. As Sven mentioned, I moved to FMI, and Yacktman; couldn't be happier. But its amazing to see him out there charging 2%
  • Anyone own Wintergreen (WGRNX)?
    No - never owned. But it’s sad to see this. I was very impressed by Winters and came close to investing with him when he opened his own fund. His WGRNX has had very poor performance since it opened in ‘05. Lipper places it near bottom among its peers in most areas. I did own Michael Price’s very fine Mutual Series for a time in the 80s or 90s. Winters worked under Price.
    Part of problem is that deep value hasn’t done well over that time. (Ed Studzinski had some interesting remarks on the modern day challenges confronting deep value investors in the June Commentary). Another aspect of this is the idea of a “one man band” (single manager) vs a team approach. That issue has been batted around here a lot lately.
    I think the topic is valuable (possibly instructive) even for those of us who don’t own the fund. For those who might be intrigued by your post, here’s some information on Winters from Wikipedia: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_J._Winters
    “David (Winters) joined Mutual Series in 1987, during Max Heine's tenure. Heine died the next year, so David was mentored in value investing by Michael Price. One key component of his value investing methodology is not to just buy at a discount, but to help management unlock that potential value as an active investor. He also looks for value where others don't want to look and is willing to go the extra mile in finding ways to invest money.
    “He was named Director of Research of Mutual Series in 2000 and President and CIO in 2001. During his time with Franklin Mutual Advisors, he was also the portfolio manager of the Mutual Discovery Fund from February 2000 to May 2005. After leaving Mutual Series in 2005, (Winters) formed Wintergreen Advisers and the Wintergreen Fund in Maine ... The companies are named after the official state herb of Maine, the wintergreen. He was encouraged by others to open a less-regulated hedge fund, but opted to run a comparatively strictly regulated mutual fund.”

    I’m not familiar enough with how the fund is invested to say whether I would sell or hold. But, I’m not opposed to sticking with a manager during rough times if I understand what he’s trying to do and think there’s still a chance the strategy will pay off. The 2% ER, however, is a turn-off - and probably the reason I didn’t invest with him when the fund opened.
  • Josh Brown: You Have To Live Through The Statistics
    Hi VintageFreak,
    I agreed with 100 % of your insightful submittal until your last few observations. I do not believe that "Free advice is never good". The "never" is far too all inclusive.
    Certainly free advice is sometimes wrong, but it is also sometimes spot on-target. Surely a good life rule is that you get what you pay for. But exceptions exist. Being cautious is always a good practice, even when you pay for advice. Experts often overstate their qualifications, especially in the mathematics arena. Here is a Link to an article that identifies 6 red flags that suggest bad advice is forthcomng:
    https://www.fastcompany.com/40438756/these-are-the-six-red-flags-that-youre-getting-bad-advice
    Commonsense helps to defend against bad advice even on these pages.
    Best Wishes
  • Cyclical to Non-Cyclical Stock Weighting Ratio At 40 Year High
    FYI: Below is an updated look at S&P 500 sector weightings. As shown, Technology now makes up more than a quarter of the pie, while Financials, Health Care, and Consumer Discretionary are the next largest sectors (in that order).
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/cyclical-to-non-cyclical-stock-weighting-ratio-at-40-year-high/
  • Zero Cost Mutual Funds a Near Term Reality
    Hi Guys,
    How would you like your mutual fund fees to go to zero? I love it and suspect you would too. Some professors from Chicago think that is a near term likelihood. I hope so. Here is a Link to a recent article they published:
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/next-stop-for-mutual-fund-fees-zero-1528652532
    I'm sure it's a tough battle. However, money in my pockets is better than in their rich pockets.
    Best Regards
  • The Momentum Bond Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103243/000141304218000161/momentumbond497cls.htm
    497 1 momentumbond497cls.htm
    The Momentum Bond Fund
    A series of PFS Funds
    Supplement dated June 8, 2018
    to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information
    each dated September 1, 2017
    The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of the PFS Funds (the “Trust”) has approved a Plan of Liquidation (the “Plan”) relating to The Momentum Bond Fund (the “Fund”), effective June 6, 2018. NWM Fund Group, LLC, the Fund’s investment adviser (the “Adviser”), recently completed a strategic review of the management and operations of the Fund and determined that it does not desire to continue to support the Fund and has recommended to the Board to approve the Plan. As a result, the Board has concluded that it is in the best interest of the shareholders to liquidate the Fund.
    In connection with the proposed liquidation and dissolution of the Fund called for by the Plan, the Board has directed the Trust’s principal underwriter to cease offering shares of the Fund immediately as of the date of this Supplement. Shareholders may continue to reinvest dividends and distributions in the Fund or redeem their shares until the liquidation.
    It is anticipated that the Fund will liquidate on or about June 29, 2018. Any remaining shareholders on the date of liquidation will receive a distribution of their remaining investment value in full liquidation of the Fund. If you have questions or need assistance, please contact your financial advisor directly or the Fund toll-free at 1-888-331-9609 or the Adviser at 1-707-252-1343.
    IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
    If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax advisor regarding the consequences of any redemption of Fund shares. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA, you must roll the proceeds into another Individual Retirement Account within sixty (60) days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you receive a distribution from a 403(b)(7) Custodian Account (Tax-Sheltered account) or a Keogh Account, you must roll the distribution into a similar type of retirement plan within sixty (60) days in order to avoid disqualification of your plan and the severe tax consequences that it can bring. If you are the trustee of a Qualified Retirement Plan, you may reinvest the money in any way permitted by the plan and trust agreement.
    This Supplement, and the existing Prospectus dated September 1, 2017, provide relevant information for all shareholders and should be retained for future reference. Both the Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information dated September 1, 2017 have been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, are incorporated by reference, and can be obtained without charge by calling the Fund toll-free at 1-888-331-9609.
  • MFO Ratings Updated Through May 2018
    All ratings have been updated on MFO Premium site, including MultiSearch, Great Owls, Fund Alarm (Three Alarm and Honor Roll), Averages, Correlation, Dashboard of Profiled Funds, and Fund Family Scorecard.
    The site is now using the Lipper Global Data Feed, which will serve as basis for much expanded content, and it provides risk and performance metrics and a myriad of screening tools on all US Mutual Funds, ETFs, CEFs, and Insurance Funds.
  • Long-Term Bonds as Insurance?
    Omitting one (unnecessary) sentence in the quoted passage brings out what I believe the passage is really saying. It than reads as follows:
    "there is a large class of investors for whom long-dated Treasuries have an almost unique virtue. ... It consists of holders of other riskier assets, such as stocks, houses (real estate generally??) or high-yield corporate bonds, who wish to hedge against falling prices in the event of a recession."
    Yes, longer dated bonds are often used by money managers to hedge risk from other types of assets because they tend to move inversely to those other assets. A high yield bond fund, for example, will sometimes hold long term Treasuries to help offset the risk from the junk they hold.
    Other than that observation, I’d say your guess is as good as mine where the economy is heading and whether one will be happy 5-10 years out that they bought some long dated bonds today. (Wouldn’t be my choice.)
  • Long-Term Bonds as Insurance?
    I'm not sure that investing in case of recessions would be profitable over any length of time, particularly with rates as low as they are at present. I have looked at using WHOSX as a hedge against market draw downs. And it does ying when the stock market yangs but over time it falls behind the S&P 500.
    The M* comparison between whosx and Fusex:
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=WHOSX&region=usa&culture=en-US
    Just my thoughts....
  • The Linkster's Mutual Performance Update
    How about cash? Most portfolios have some of it! I'm currently at about 15% cash.