@hank,
Thanks for the question.
I hope all is well with you and your family.
Years back before I developed my market barometer and equity weighting matrix system I cut my stock allocation by about 5% during the summer months. And, come fall I'd overweight it. Today, I let the matrix be my guide (along with a few other indicators) in setting my equity allocation weighting within my portfolio.
I'll explain.
Currently, my equity weighting is around 52% to 53% of my portfolio with the high range being 60% and the low range being 40%. Generally, I move between these percentages (45% to 55%). The movement of the barometer reading drives the equity weighting matrix's suggested portfolio's equity allocation. Should stocks go soft during the summer I look for the barometer to key on this softness thus raising the suggested equity allocation in the matrix. As of now, I'm not reducing my equity allocation because it is already inline with what the matrix is calling for. It is indeed possible I will add to my equity allocation later in the summer should softness in stocks develop.
Remember, the three main feeds of the barometer are an earnings feed, a breadth feed, and a technical score feed. Although I will not be posting weekly barometer readings during the summer months should market conditions warrant I'll make a special post plus doing summer monthly postings.
Thanks again for the question.
Old_Skeet

My submission as a contrarian fund fund that I own would be OPGSX because it’s off 7.5% YTD and has lost an average of 5.5% over 10 years. Clearly the thing it invests in (gold) has been out of favor with investors over the past decade and continues to be.

@Hank, YOU would be contrarian to buy a PM fund, not the fund itself. A contrarian fund I believe means the manger buys out of favor stocks - buy low. Not sure that is much different to a 'deep value' fund/manager. Just terms that identify the managers style I think.

FYI: Traders also assess efforts to save U.S.-North Korea summit, ongoing political uncertainty in Spain
U.S. stock futures pointed to a sizable drop at the open Tuesday, as traders getting back to work after a three-day weekend were greeted by fresh Italian political drama.
Another Italian election looks likely within a few months, and it might lead the eurozone’s third-largest economy toward ditching the shared currency — which would represent quite a shakeup to the status quo.
Traders also were assessing efforts to revive a June summit between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, as well as ongoing political uncertainty in Spain, where Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy was struggling to stay in power.
Ted
U.S. : (MarketWatch)
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-futures-fall-about-200-points-as-italian-drama-grabs-the-spotlight-2018-05-29/print
U.S.: (IBD)
https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/stock-market-futures-walt-disney-salesforce-momo/
U.S.: (CNBC)
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/29/us-stock-futures-dow-data-earnings-geopolitics-and-international-markets-on-the-agenda.html
Asia-Europe-U.S.: (Bloomberg)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-28/asian-stocks-set-for-lower-open-oil-declines-markets-wrap
U.K.: (Marketwatch)
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ftse-100-faces-worst-day-in-2-months-engulfed-by-european-political-fears-2018-05-29/print
Europe: (MarketWatch)
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/european-stocks-slump-as-political-rumblings-in-italy-rattle-nerves-2018-05-29/print
Europe: (Reuters)
https://www.reuters.com/article/europe-stocks/european-shares-slide-as-italian-election-risk-reignites-euro-break-up-anxieties-idUSL5N1T01F8
Europe: (CNBC)
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/29/european-stocks-political-turmoil-in-italy-unsettles-markets.html
Asia: (MarketWatch)
Asia: (Reuters)
https://www.reuters.com/article/japan-stocks-close/nikkei-hits-1-month-low-as-cyclicals-falter-on-growth-worries-idUSL3N1T02B6
Asia: (CNBC)
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/28/asia-markets-oil-prices-stocks-currencies-and-north-korea-in-focus.html
Bonds: (CNBC)
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/29/bonds-and-fixed-income-economic-data-and-geopolitics-in-focus.html
Currencies: (Reuters)
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-global-forex/euro-near-6-1-2-month-lows-on-italy-concerns-risk-aversion-lifts-yen-idUSKCN1IU01R
Oil: (CNBC)
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/28/oil-markets-expected-output-increase-drags.html
Gold: (CNBC)
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/28/gold-prices-inch-up-but-stronger-dollar-weighs.html
Current Futures: Negative
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx

Point of Order here ...
Wouldn’t a contrarian fund be something that hasn’t done well in recent years? I observe one mentioned in the thread as being contrarian that pulled a solid 10% over the past year and also 10% annually over the past decade. I hate to sound contrarian, but that one sounds more like an agreeable fund to me than a contrarian one. Maybe I just don’t understand contrarian.
Let’s see ... Located a definition in Collins Dictionary ... “A person who typically acts or thinks in a way contrary to popular or accepted opinion; specif., an investor who seeks to make a profit by acting in opposition to majority opinion, prevailing wisdom, etc., as by buying a company's stock when it is out of favor with the majority of investors”. https://www.collinsdictionary.com/us/dictionary/english/contrarian
My submission as a contrarian fund fund that I own would be OPGSX because it’s off 7.5% YTD and has lost an average of 5.5% over 10 years. Clearly the thing it invests in (gold) has been out of favor with investors over the past decade and continues to be.
Just saying ...

will be interesting to see where this goes:
https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2018/5/25/17394422/nfl-knee-kneeling-labor-law-kaepernick-free-speech-protest-owners

Interesting; hadn't heard of the 'partial strike' rule. So besides legal action on the failure to consult the players' union, apparently the only immediate response possible is a general strike.

will be interesting to see where this goes:
https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2018/5/25/17394422/nfl-knee-kneeling-labor-law-kaepernick-free-speech-protest-owners

FYI: t’s often tempting for mutual fund investors to buy whatever has been doing well recently and to avoid funds that have lost money or lagged the market. Almost inevitably, funds that go on a hot streak attract lots of new assets, while investors tend to flee from funds going through a slump.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.morningstar.com/articles/867399/5-great-core-funds-for-contrarians.html

Who are the real patriots?
https://americanprogress.org/issues/poverty/reports/2017/09/26/439661/5-ways-president-trump-congressional-republicans-betraying-veterans/

Would be good to know median pay increase for worker. Yours truly's salary in most recent job over 7 years is a grandtotal of 5.5%. So you can figure how much it is per year compared to the 8.5% per year for CEOs.
Sometimes I wonder why workers don't all get fired. I mean why keep them around? Only to rub it in? What is more sadistic?

FYI: Seventeen months into his tenure as CEO of Morningstar Inc., Kunal Kapoor finds himself in a familiar situation — selling to advisers, yet competing with them in some areas.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=HmUKW5SwM8qT0PEPlreU4AY&q=investment+news+Morningstar+Evolving+Well+Beyond+Its+Origins+Analyzing+Mutual+Funds&oq=investment+news+Morningstar+Evolving+Well+Beyond+Its+Origins+Analyzing+Mutual+Funds&gs_l=psy-ab.3...2021.16405.0.17732.18.17.0.0.0.0.122.1868.0j17.17.0....0...1c.1j2.64.psy-ab..1.16.1758.0..0j35i39k1j0i67k1j0i131k1j0i20i264k1j0i20i263k1j0i131i67k1.0.Q00VZDQhSoI

FYI: Fidelity, based in Boston, has taken an 10.9 percent stake in the Bala Cynwyd-based radio station group whose shares are now trading around a five-year low after a first-quarter earnings miss.
Wall Street has punished the stock, knocking 25 percent off its value from early May, as Entercom CEO David Field has said he does not expect a recovery until later this year. Entercom stock was down $. 05, or .64 percent, to close Monday at $7.75.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.philly.com/philly/business/comcast/fidelity-entercom-communications-stock-cbs-radio-20180521.html

FYI: Chief executives at the biggest public companies got an 8.5 percent raise last year, bringing the median pay package for CEOs to $11.7 million. Across the S&P 500, compensation for CEOs is often hundreds of times higher than typical workers.
The pay increase matches the bump that CEOs received in 2016, according to salary, stock and other compensation data analyzed by Equilar for The Associated Pres
Regards,
Ted
http://www.leadertelegram.com/News/Daily-Updates/2018/05/26/div-class-libPageBodyLinebreak-A-CEO-average-Joe-11-7M-div.html

Why post this bogus Fox crap? Oh, right, patriotism.
Unworthy of this weekend.
Like the militarization of the opening of sports events. Come on.
No company would not love to hire more vets when they can do the work, or close enough.
This equation of military display (not only at sporting events) w/ patriotism is such pernicious, divisive, destructive crap.
Coach Kerr has got it:
https://www.facebook.com/NowThisSports/videos/831418063695194/
Btw, if you do not know, this is a guy whose famous academic father was murdered by terrorists in Beirut.

Maybe they hold PDI and PCI in addition to their 15-20y bonds ....

in any browser punch f5 a few times,
or use a different browser,
or launch a private / incognito session
go to fidelity.com
in the search field enter ponax
voila

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1558107/000139834418007999/fp0033376_485apos.htm
Seven Canyons Strategic Income Fund
Seven Canyons World Innovators Fund

DODIX and MWTSX. Needless to say, they are underperforming so far this year.

You may need to say, because DODIX is at the 14th percentile so far this year, MTWSX is at the 42nd percentile. They have outperformed AGG (a proxy for the domestic investment grade bond market) by
0.93% and 0.26% respectively YTD.
These funds don't just invest in short term bonds, but across the maturity/duration spectrum, and also delve a little into junk (around 6% or so currently). You're right that generally to have generated significant positive returns YTD, a bond fund must have been short term (or shorter), or taken on more credit risk.
Normally, I'd say that the extra yield offered by a longer (read intermediate term) fund has a good chance of compensating for greater losses than a short term fund would experience due to rising interest rates. But currently the yield curve is fairly flat - 2 year treasuries yield 2.58%, 10 years 3.08%, and 30 years barely any more at 3.20%.
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield
An intermediate bond fund with, say a 5 year duration would lose 2.5% if there are a couple more (1/4%) rate hikes this year - that should pretty much eat up its SEC yield for the year. So for now (read: the next 2-3 rate hikes or the rest of the year), a short/ultra short term bond fund might be the better choice.
There is another alternative that meets your requirements. Buy 6 month treasuries - they currently yield over 2%, and after six months, if interest rates rise as expected, you can buy higher yielding treasuries or buy a bond fund at that time.
Regarding PONAX:
1) It's an excellent fund at what it does
2) Its performance is just about the same as DODIX YTD
3) While derivatives don't spook me, I am concerned that I can't explain its duration. On PIMCO's page for the fund, the duration for each sector of the fund is listed as under 3 years, yet it says that the effective duration for the fund as a whole is 4.13 years. Which is why I don't know how it is computing its numbers (i.e. I don't understand how its portfolio is acting as a whole, to lengthen its effective duration beyond that of all of its components).
https://www.pimco.com/en-us/investments/mutual-funds/income-fund/a
4) The fund is sold without a transaction fee and load-waived at Fidelity and elsewhere.
https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/summary/72201F474

FYI: It is risky to ride a bicycle blindfolded. It is risky to walk over broken glass barefoot. It is risky to drink a hot beverage without checking its temperature. These foolish risks are one-sided in that they have a downside, but no real upside.
Buying stock is different. In the stock market, risk simply means uncertainty — not knowing which way stock prices will go next. The risk is two-sided, in that things may turn out worse than expected, but they may also turn out better.
How do investors weigh the upside and downside risks? Most investors are risk-averse. They are not interested in a stock that has a 50% chance of going up 20% and a 50% chance of going down 20%. They want stocks that, on average, have positive returns. In fact, studies of loss aversion suggest that the pain of a prospective loss is typically twice as powerful as the pleasure of a possible gain — most people would not buy a stock with a 50% chance of a 20% loss unless there was a 50% chance of a 40% gain.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-probably-have-less-money-invested-in-stocks-than-you-should-2018-05-23/print

FYI: I OFTEN RECEIVE letters and emails from retired individuals in need of financial advice. Many of their queries mention that they attended one of those ubiquitous free lunch seminars offered by investment advisors and estate planners.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.humbledollar.com/2018/05/taking-shelter/

THDAX (and its other share classes) started 12/16/09, so the only peak to trough period to compare is the later one:
04/30/11 to 09/30/11: THADX -25.3%, peers -26.1%, APHEX -30.9%
FWIW, the relative performances over the extended flat period, 4/29/11 to 9/5/14 are:
THADX 18.7%, peers 0.3%, APHEX -13.3%
Sorry I didn't detect your sarcasm.