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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Value time again ??? Recent indicators and returns pointing a new direction for the hot money?
    I cruise through the Fidelity family funds to look at the various funds and their actions. At the Thanksgiving period I noticed that most of the funds that were associated with "value" were having positive days when growth funds were either neutral or down. I continued to watch and perhaps the hot money wants to move to the down trodden market area; at least relative to growth for this year.
    You do not need to login to view this Fidelity list. Click upon the the NAV% column to sort for return percentage for the day.
    Another day of significant change between growth and value types.
    http://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/fidelity-funds-daily-pricing-yields?refpr=MFRes_016
    Value and Growth do rotate.....a short view in this chart.
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?JKF,JKE&p=5&O=011000
    Chart for etf's listed in below link. The visual short term changes between value and growth of all capsizes, which started a more dramatic move around Nov. 25.

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?JKF,JKE,JKI,JKH,JKL,JKK&p=0&O=011000

    Lipper over view of categories/styles:
    http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3020-lipperindx.html?mod=topnav_2_3023
    Lastly, the daily return for these two today:
    ---JKF = +1.1%
    ---JKE = -1.2%
    The past week for these two:
    --- JKF =+4%
    --- JKE = -1.2%
    JKF has a YTD return of: +13%
    JKE has a YTD return of: +28.9%
    Well, anyway; perhaps something to think about viewing your favorite growth and value investments comparison.
    Most assuredly would appreciate comments.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Dash of Insight - Fund Sectors Impacted by Tax Overhaul
    Potential Impact of Cash Repatriation on EPS of Stocks (S&P 500 and Tech) :
    fundamentalis.com/?p=7403
    A look at 4th Quarter Earnings Estimates and Interesting Cash Repatriation Spreadsheet:
    fundamentalis.com/?p=7397
    Close-up of Spreadsheet:
    fundamentalis.com/wp-content/uploads/cashrepat113017.png
  • Dash of Insight - Fund Sectors Impacted by Tax Overhaul
    Mondays are always a good day to read this blog (linked below).
    This Monday discusses (among other things) the Impact that The Tax Overhaul will have a financial sectors:
    image
    Link to the entire Blog:
    dashofinsight.com/
  • What To Consider Before You Dash Into Cash
    FYI: As stocks continue to march mostly higher, many investors are asking the same question: Isn’t this a good time to sell stocks and put more of my portfolio into cash?
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-to-consider-before-you-dash-into-cash-1512357360
  • What Are Donor-Advised Funds?
    FYI: These funds allow investors to set aside money for a future charitable gift, but get the tax deduction immediately.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-are-donor-advised-funds-1512356401
  • Why buy bonds, and a few short lists
    Junkster's Forum Comment
    Here is looking at you @MikeM.
    Discuss > Single Post All PostsForumsBlogsSharingTopicsJoin
    Re: Bond OEFs - what now
    Junkster 11-02-2017, 11:05 AM | Post #3880685 |
    0
    >>>> FD says "Most of my money is in 3 horses PIMIX,IOFIX and NHMAX(switched from PHMIX was luck or skill??). IOFIX last jump was 8/22, are we going to see the next one this month? let's see if the pattern will continue.<<<<<<
    Hope you are right about IOFIX FD. My problem is when a pattern becomes too well known and predictable....... Last year it had a big jump on September 30 and then it wasn't until February 24 of this year for the next one. Plus AUM which have grown dramatically may impact the pattern. But I will stay put with IOFIX for awhile. Pimco's Mark Kiesel said just the other day that non agencies are mispriced and " are among the few bonds that have price upside"
    I've found a newer fund and a mini IOFIX I haven't seen mentioned anywhere. It's not available in all states and I contacted them to have it blue skied in my home state of KY which takes but a few weeks. I went through that process with SPFRX when it was a young fund back in 2015. Regardless, looking forward to 2018 and seeing where the momentum will be. Junk corporates are so unloved because of valuations they may surprise. Or maybe bank loans because we may have more aggressive rate hikes.
    Will check back in next year. After this post immediately deleting all my trading and investing forums. Winter off trail hiking is just around the corner. At 70 years old hanging out on forums has lost much of its appeal. Good luck to everyone.</blockquote>
    And your point is? The Master of Misrepresentation strikes again conveniently omitting this was a post made on the Morningstar board. Trying to stir things up? That was simply my way of saying goodbye to the Morningstar forums. Had never posted there till IOFIX became a topic of conversation after my comments made on this board earlier in the year. Some great posters and conversations over there but not my cup of tea. But no way was I able to delete this fine board try as I could. As for that mystery fund much ado about nothing. The River Canyon Total Return Bond fund for the time being will not be available on any retail brokerage platforms.
  • Why buy bonds, and a few short lists
    Junkster's Forum Comment
    Here is looking at you @MikeM.
    Discuss > Single Post All PostsForumsBlogsSharingTopicsJoin
    Re: Bond OEFs - what now
    Junkster 11-02-2017, 11:05 AM | Post #3880685 |
    0
    >>>> FD says "Most of my money is in 3 horses PIMIX,IOFIX and NHMAX(switched from PHMIX was luck or skill??). IOFIX last jump was 8/22, are we going to see the next one this month? let's see if the pattern will continue.<<<<<<
    Hope you are right about IOFIX FD. My problem is when a pattern becomes too well known and predictable....... Last year it had a big jump on September 30 and then it wasn't until February 24 of this year for the next one. Plus AUM which have grown dramatically may impact the pattern. But I will stay put with IOFIX for awhile. Pimco's Mark Kiesel said just the other day that non agencies are mispriced and " are among the few bonds that have price upside"
    I've found a newer fund and a mini IOFIX I haven't seen mentioned anywhere. It's not available in all states and I contacted them to have it blue skied in my home state of KY which takes but a few weeks. I went through that process with SPFRX when it was a young fund back in 2015. Regardless, looking forward to 2018 and seeing where the momentum will be. Junk corporates are so unloved because of valuations they may surprise. Or maybe bank loans because we may have more aggressive rate hikes.
    Will check back in next year. After this post immediately deleting all my trading and investing forums. Winter off trail hiking is just around the corner. At 70 years old hanging out on forums has lost much of its appeal. Good luck to everyone.
  • Polen Global Growth
    @VintageFreak
    This fund has been in my portfolio since 2015. Watching to see what happens with current fund management and holdings makes sense. Polen Capital executes a specific process. The remaining managers know that process. The firm has been putting some focus into international investing in recent years. I'll hold on to see how things go in 2018. Given the low turnover rate and small number of holdings, I don't expect there will be any rapid decline in performance over the short term due to the management change. So, I don't feel a need to make a rushed decision.
  • David Snowball's December Commentary Is Now Available
    Thanks, Ted.
    Thanks, too, for the heads-up on the Steadman Funds. He really was a visionary (how many people would devote a fund to ocean nodule mining ... oh, wait! The same folks who'd imagine a fund devoted to 3D printing!) and a crackpot.
    I think the bitcoin piece was worth writing, and might be worth reading. It's easy for most of us to shake our heads, mumble about tulip bulbs and move on. It's likely important, though, to anticipate how we might be affected by the securitization of bitcoin speculation: that is, what happens when average investors are tempted into moving parts of actual portfolios in ETFs tied to bitcoin derivatives? What happens when institutional investors follow the same path? It now looks like the window for answering such questions is no more than 18 months and might well be "sometime in 2018".
    It's interesting to watch the evolution of Rondure and the continued strength of their partner, Grandeur Peak. They do offer some credibility for the case that (a) true talent is rare and (b) true talent exists.
    I'm a bit sad that the team at Sentinel Balanced wasn't transferred to Touchstone Balanced; I have a nice "left behind by Morningstar" profile of the fund written, and was just waiting for the transition of ownership to close before sharing it. It may turn out to be a fine new fund, but it really becomes a new fund now rather than a star in the shadows. The equity sleeve seems more promising than the income sleeve, so we'll wait and watch. The Small Cap and International funds, though, seem worth more immediate attention.
    More than a bit sad at the closure of the Croft funds. Good people and a good longer term record who seem to have been undone by this last, least rational phase (umm, the long-term average p/e in the stock market is about 15, the average p/e for our more conservative slice - large cap value funds - today is 23).
    And really quite sad about losing the Amazon relationship. In round figures, that's $7000/year that just vanished. If we move to their Amazon Smiles program instead, those same purchases would net us a cool $550 instead. And we're not signing-on to commercial clutter in what I think of as "the last quiet spot" on the web. Nuts.
    Ed continues to think interesting thoughts, and listening to people that most of us miss. Charles continues rewiring the system behind the scenes. Chip continues to make it all appear, and appear effortless. I'm deeply grateful to them all.
    And to you.
    David
  • S&P 500 Returns In December: 1950-2016
    FYI: Do some months have significantly different market returns than others?
    This calculator uses sixty-odd years of S&P 500 data to let you see for yourself. Select a month; the calculator will show you its good and bad years and overall return, for the years from 1950 until recently.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.moneychimp.com/features/monthly_returns.htm
    CXO Advisory Trading Calendar: December
    https://www.cxoadvisory.com/trading-calendar/december/
  • M*: ETF Fund Focus: SPDR S&P Dividend ETF: (SDY)
    If one insists on going this dividend payment route then you might want to look at VYM where you can up the yield by 0.50% and cut your expense ratio from 0.35% down to 0.08%.
  • Why buy bonds, and a few short lists
    Still buy corp bonds - recently bought macys and Hughes satellite system both > 5.7% yield. Still have and added to PFF ..
  • Most "Expert" Investment Advice? Feel Free to Ignore It
    @Mark: Link this at 4:50 AM this morning. Scroll Down
    Regards,
    Ted :)
  • Ping Old_Skeet: +/- 5% Rebalancing Bands for your Fund Portfolio
    I believe the equity market can act as its own re-balancing mechanism. Market price conditions change "moment by moment". When you are in the accumulation stage of life you might dollar cost average (dca) into these price conditions and in a sense your "dca" helps you re-balance into the market's price. Dca into investments over a long time horizons (many overbought and oversold changes) usually provide a positive return on investment. This might be considered a component of a re-balancing growth strategy.
    When you move from the Accumulation (growth) Stage to the Distribution Stage, re-balancing is often impacted by the spending ("distribution of cash") of your portfolio. Re-balancing as a result of spending comes in many forms - retirement income, RMDs, one time tuition payments, wedding costs, house buying, and divorce to name a few. Most of these involve raising cash from your invested investments.
    Raising cash in a portfolio is somewhat a kin to running a farm. Equities are the cows, the hens, the crops. The bonds are the working capital needed to run the farm- the fertilizers, the machinery, the outbuilding, the land, the service costs, etc. Think of cash as the profits from the corn, the hay, the eggs the milk. When a cow needs to be milked...milk it. When the field needs to be hayed, "make hay when the sun shines". Harvesting is part of farm's life and I believe it should also be a dynamic part of a portfolio's inner workings with respect to the cash needs (financial goals) of the portfolio.
    Another take on re-balancing:
    Using @Catch22 portfolio (50% FCNTX and 50% PIMIX) this farm has hired hands (Danoff and Ivascyn) who help manage the production and the operation of the farm separately. You need to roll up your sleeves and coordinate how these two managers are "running" your farm and "re-balance" their efforts. If your are young and your goal is long term growth, buy more FCNTX, but remember that you may need more land, more equipment, more fertilizer...so also buy some PIMIX. In a growth portfolio (with no need for short term cash) I would own enough PIMIX to cover the downside risks (Maximum Draw Down or MAXDD) of FCNTX. So every dollar you spend for future growth of FCNTX, an additional amount (in MAXDD percent) should be directed at PIMIX to hedge FCNTX's MaxDD risk. This will allow you to not sell FCNTX at the wrong time (in case you did need cash), but might even provide an opportunity to buy more FCNTX during oversold times.
    For me, I gauge "overbought and oversold" using my portfolios holdings. I use PIMIX as my "risk off" portfolio indicator comparing it to my "risk on" investments, in this case FCNTX. "Overbought and oversold" conditions of FCNTX are compared against the performance of PIMIX dynamically. . In other words I use PIMIX to tell me when FCNTX is over or under performing PIMIX. Also, using @Old_Skeet's upper bands as a re-balancing trigger (+20% gain on the upside for FCNTX compared to PIMIX) - sell FCNTX and move proceeds (re-balance back into) PIMIX. Conversely, a (-10 percent loss of FCNTX compared to PIMIX) - sell PIMIX and buy (re-balance) into FCNTX
    We can hire a manager to do this for us with hybrid/allocation/glide path retirement funds or we can "farm" a portfolio ourselves with individual securities (stocks or bonds) or with additional hired hands (stock or bond mutual fund managers). Either way, we still need to identify a strategy to deal with the spending dynamic and determine how that spending impacts portfolio re-balancing as we move through the distribution stage of life.
  • Lewis Braham: How Smart Investors Give To Charity
    I have the feeling of deja vu with Lewis' article. Had it appeared somewhere else before?
    In any case, this fall M* ran a series of five columns on donor advised funds: intro, one each on Fidelity, Schwab, Vanguard, then a comparison.
    Is a Donor-Advised Fund Right for You?
    How Does Fidelity Charitable's Investment Menu Stack Up? (previously linked by Ted)
    A Closer Look at Schwab's Donor-Advised Fund
    Under the Hood at Vanguard Charitable
    5 Questions to Ask When Choosing a Donor-Advised Fund
    There's a very detailed/lengthy 2015 Kitces column, previously linked by heezsafe in this MFO thread.
    https://www.kitces.com/blog/rules-strategies-and-tactics-when-using-donor-advised-funds-for-charitable-giving/
    One curious gotcha is that you cannot use these funds to receive your IRA RMD (i.e. they cannot accept qualified charitable distributions).
  • Why buy bonds, and a few short lists
    Interesting discussion and yet no love for IOFCX or SEMPX. Hmmm. To be honest I get my bond exposure from PDI & PCI but they both violate msf' no leverage rule.
    Yup, I don't even screen for leveraged closed end funds. (We each have our personal blind spots.) Your funds may be excellent - I've never checked.
    A couple of other blind spots of mine - loads and high cost bond funds. Well, high cost anything, but especially when it comes to bonds. For those reasons, I haven't looked at IOFCX. Perhaps I can offer a suggestion about the load problem. Instead of buying level load C shares, you should be able to buy IOFAX A shares NTF at Schwab, and get rid of 0.75% in 12b-1 fees.
    Schwab page for A shares.
    I hadn't looked at SEMPX for a different reason. I prefer to delegate some asset management to my fund managers. So I don't explicitly seek out junk (I'm happy using multisector funds for that). I took a quick look now - virtually all MBS, potentially leveraged, low grade junk (single B average). Yikes! Definitely not my cup of tea, but it seems to work for you. Everyone builds their portfolio differently.
  • Buy, Sell and Ponder December 2017
    The barometer report.
    This week saw Old_Skeet's market barometer finish the week with a reading of 140 indicating the S&P 500 Index is overvalued. A reading one point lower and the Index would fall into the overbought area. Generally, a lower reading indicates there is less investment value over a higher reading. Based upon a seasonal investment strategy I am overweight equities at this time over what my equity weighting matrix calls for by about 5%.
    Also, at this time, the barometer is not finding any of the major sectors within the Index to be undervalued or oversold from a technical score perspective. With this, I am still with my cash build mode within my portfolio where most of my mutual fund distributions are taken in cash. This in of itself will be a rebalance of sorts as a good number of mutual funds will be making their annual capital gains distributions in December. With this, I'm expecting my allocation in cash to rise and my allocation in equities to fall. Come the end of December or the first part of January I may do some buying. Currently, I'm thinking in the hybrid fund area and looking at convertibles and multialternative funds.
    In addition, you might find my comments and those made by others of interest in the thread linked below which centers around methods used to rebalance a portfolio.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/36992/ping-old-skeet-5-rebalancing-bands-for-your-fund-portfolio#latest
    Have a great week and thanks for stopping by and reading.
    Old_Skeet