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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Yale’s Endowment Learns Hard Diversification Lesson
    Connecting the David Swenson discussion dots:
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/36708/conversation-with-david-swenson#latest
    @MikeM2, using VWINX (VWENX) as a retirement distribution strategy is also another worthy attribute of the fund.
    VWINX is the clear winner. Providing 25 years of inflation adjusted 4% annual distributions with a residual value over 89% greater than its beginning value
    long-term-growing-income-open-end-mutual-fund-possible
  • Yale’s Endowment Learns Hard Diversification Lesson
    **But Yale’s allocation to U.S. stocks is simply too low. And Swensen may need to acknowledge that the passive strategies he derides have stacked up well against endowments in the past 10 years.**
    In Dr. Swenson's book he lays out a passive portfolio with Vanguard funds for the average investor(like me). Derides seems a little strong. The article didn't mention the portfolio's standard deviation relative to the SP500 or a 80/20 stock bond portfolio. Something else I find interesting is that Vanguard's Wellesley Income (40%dividend/value stock/60% income) has a 10 year record competitive with the SP500 if you consider that that the Admiral shares are 15 basis points and the 10 yrs STD deviation is 6.34.
    JMHO,
    Mike
  • U.S. Junk Bond Funds Post 4th-Biggest Week Of Outflows Ever
    FYI: U.S. fund investors walloped high-yield funds with their biggest week of withdrawals since March, Lipper data shows.
    The junk bond mutual funds and exchange-traded funds posted $4.4 billion in net withdrawals during the week ended Nov. 15, the fourth-largest weekly outflow on record dating back to 1992.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/u-s--junk-bond-funds-post-4th-biggest-week-of-outflows-ever-35781.html?print
  • Mohamed El-Erian – Which Asset Classes Are Most Vulnerable
    FYI: Mohamed A. El-Erian is the chief economic advisor for Allianz SE. Before joining Allianz, Dr. El-Erian held positions as chief executive and co-chief investment officer of PIMCO and president and CEO of Harvard Management Company, the entity that manages Harvard’s endowment and related accounts. Dr. El-Erian was also a managing director at Salomon Smith Barney/Citigroup in London and spent 15 years with the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC.
    Dr. El-Erian has published widely on international economic and finance topics. His 2008 best-seller, When Markets Collide, was named a book of the year by The Economist, and one of the best business books of all time by The Independent (UK). He was one of Foreign Policy’s “Top 100 Global Thinkers” for four years in a row, and is a contributing editor for the Financial Times. His newest book – The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability and Avoiding the Next Collapse – is another New York Times best-seller.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2017/11/15/mohamed-el-erian-which-asset-classes-are-most-vulnerable
  • Buy - Sell - and - Ponder November 2017
    Hello,
    Here is the Market barometer report for week ending November 17th.
    This week the barometer closed with a reading of 147 (up one point form the previous week) leaving the S&P 500 Index in fair value. The Index closed down 0.13% for the week at 2579. The three best performing sectors for the week were discreationary (XLY) up 1.27% ... staples (XLP) up 0.88% ... and, utilities (XLU) up 0.54%. Industrials (XLI) scored just barely undervalued this week on a technical score basis.
    Currently, Old_Skeet is just watching and awaiting a pull back (3 to 5 percent) before putting new money to work.
    Have a good week ... and, thanks for stopping by and reading.
    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
  • New ETF Is A Bet On The Death Of Retail Stores: (EMTY)
    Thanks Ted. This new inverse ETF makes me chuckle.
    While it's true that XRT is the most shorted ETF, it's also true that high short interest in an ETF is usually a predictor of OUTperformance, not UNDERperformance, at least with ETFs that are decently traded.
    Here's a test I ran on the period 1999-2017:
    Assumptions:
    Universe: All Unleveraged Equity ETFs in the Top 50% of average daily turnover.
    Rebalance: Weekly on Mondays at the Close
    Slippage: Assumed at 0.1% per trade
    Ranking: Buy Top 10 each week with highest Short Interest Ratio
    Results: 7.2% annualized return for the period, compared to 5.9% for SPY.
  • ZEOIX mixed?
    Hi Ben. I'm afraid I am the culprit here. I read each of David's profiles and make an "objective" assessment. At the time, he mentioned a few dings, which influenced my assessment. If I recall, here are some of the statements:
    Management’s stake in the fund
    As of the last Statement of Additional Information (April 2013), Mr. Reddy and Mr. Cook each had between $1 – 10,000 invested in the fund. The manager’s commitment is vastly greater than that outdated stat reveals. Effectively all of his personal capital is tied up in the fund or Zeo Capital’s fund operations. None of the fund’s directors had any investment in it. That’s no particular indictment of the fund since the directors had no investment in any of the 98 funds they oversaw.
    Expense ratio
    The reported expense ratio is 1.50% which substantially overstates the expenses current investors are likely to encounter.
    Fund website
    Effectively none. Zeo.com contains the same information you’d find on a business card. (Yeah, I know.) Because most of their investors come through referrals and personal interactions it’s not a really high priority for them. They aspire to a nicely minimalist site at some point in the foreseeable future. Until then you’re best off calling and chatting with them.
    Break, break.
    Venk and Paige were kind enough to provide an update via telecom last month and after discussion with David, we're trying to set-up a visit with them in mid December for a profile update in January commentary.
    Since 2014, they've doubled in AUM ... much better website now, lower er (if not low enough), not sure of director stake yet. But, in any case, they remain genuinely thoughtful in approach to investing and investor solicitation.
    Here are some of their impressive risk numbers (click screen to enlarge):
    image
  • ZEOIX mixed?
    ZEOIX has done precisely what I tasked it to do...serve as a low risk bucket one holding, essentially cash-like, but also to ideally earn 2-3% a year in a no-drama fashion. And, it actually is the best performing of the 5 funds similarly tasked.
    Ted, the problem you're making in your analysis is to compare this against a pool of high-yield bond funds...the same mistake that MS makes, and which has been discussed more than once in the MFO commentary.
  • David Snowball's November Commentary Is Now Available
    *hmgodwin
    Thank you, openice. I didnt know that the past commentaries were available. Such is sufficient to determine if a personal investment is warranted. Thank you for the knowledge.
    Appreciate that!
    @lewis braham
    Thanks for your cautionary remarks about composite returns -- well-taken. I also find these returns helpful but not definitive.
    Here is a summary of what I learned from a call this morning with Louis Shapiro, one of the PMs-- what he said and what he's verified from my own research/assessment.
    The managers have never had liquidity issues in the small cap composite despite having concentrated positions. At the same time, he acknowledges that liquidity could happen in the funds -- a point you raised. What they are hoping for is that the new funds will have sticker assets as well. (Of course, this is unknown,)
    His feeling is based on holders in the composites having been long-term investors who have invested more when markets have done well and in those that have done poorly -- a conclusion I reached and brought to his attention after seeing the performance statistics for all their calendar years. He said that they will see how new fund investors react to dislocations in the markets and with more AUM in these funds.
    Last, he feels that the new products are repeatable and scalable for those who are not chasing performance, who understand the strategies because they are clearly communicated, e.g., the funds do well in up markets but also see that most of the money is made when stocks fall out of favor for certain periods. (The practical qualifiers)
    The funds are now available at Schwab:
    SMID Funds: Basic and IRA-- SHDYX N Class $100 basic and IRA; SHDIX I Class 250K; SHDYX Y Class 100K
    All-Cap Funds: Basic and IRA -- SHXPX N Class, SHXYX Y Class, and SHXIX -- Ibid.
    So currently, the preceding is all I can write. I will remain cautious in view of what you've said and the summary above.
  • ZEOIX mixed?
    @MFO: A ZEOIX by any other name would smell just like another high-yield bond fund, a far cry from a money market fund ! It has lag the average high-yield bond fund, YTD, 1-5 Yrs., has an extremely high ER and below average yield. So once again, I 'm sticking it in the over for Thanksgiving Day turkey !
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Mark Hulbert: When You Realize How Much Luck Goes Into Investing, You Might Change Your Methods
    Thought this link was worthy of the thread.
    The article's introduction grabs you like a good novel:
    It had been a little over a week since anyone had seen Karina Chikitova. The forest she had walked into nine days prior was known for being overrun with bears and wolves. Luckily, she was with her dog and it was summer in the Siberian Taiga, a time when the night time temperature only dropped to 42 degrees (6 Celsius). However, there was still one major problem — Karina was just 4 years old.
    a-little-knowledge-is-dangerous
    Could be Russian Fake news, but I hope not:
    dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2721673/The-real-Mowgli-Russian-girl-survives-11-days-nights-lost-Siberian-wolf-bear-infested-wilderness.html
  • AdvisorShares Plans Vice ETF: (ACT)

    It'll be interesting to see how its composition will compare to VICEX with its 1.45 ER.
  • AdvisorShares Plans Vice ETF: (ACT)
    FYI: A filing from AdvisorShares outlines the firm’s plans to launch an actively managed ETF that will target companies involved in the tobacco, alcoholic beverage or marijuana industries. The AdvisorShares VICE ETF (ACT) is slated to list on the NYSE Arca and come with an expense ratio of 0.75%.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.etf.com/sections/daily-etf-watch/advisorshares-plans-vice-etf
  • ZEOIX mixed?
    As far as the CD - ZEOIX comparison, ZEOIX has averaged about 3% return over the last 5 years, 2.8% over the last 3. You can now get a CD through Goldman Sachs Bank at 2.4%. Personally, if you are working outside a brokerage, I would ladder 5 year CDs as opposed to owning ZEOIX, but to each their own.
  • The Breakfast Briefing: Weekly Win For U.S. Stocks In Jeopardy As Russia Probe Moves Closer To Trump
    FYI: U.S. stocks were setting up for a slight pullback Friday, putting weekly gains for the S&P and Dow average in jeopardy, as traders assessed the latest developments in an ongoing investigation into Russia’s interference in the U.S. presidential election last year.
    Regards,
    Ted
    U.S.: (MarketWatch)
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/weekly-win-for-us-stocks-in-jeopardy-as-russia-probe-moves-closer-to-trump-2017-11-17/print
    U.S.: (IBD)
    https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/the-new-growth-stocks-are-wal-mart-cisco-gm-sp-500-futures/
    U.S.: (CNBC)
    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/17/us-stock-futures-earnings-data-tax-on-the-agenda.html
    Asia-Europe-U.S.: (Bloomberg)
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-16/stocks-in-asia-to-climb-in-end-to-tumultuous-week-markets-wrap
    Europe: (MarketWatch)
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/european-stocks-stumble-on-company-news-broker-downgrades-2017-11-17/print
    Europe: (Reuters)
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets/world-stocks-claw-back-losses-but-set-for-second-weekly-fall-idUSKBN1DH02Y
    Europe: (CNBC)
    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/17/european-markets-earnings-data-draghi-speech.html
    Asia: MarketWatch)
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nikkei-rallies-looks-to-notch-10th-straight-weekly-gain-2017-11-16/print
    Asia: (Reuters)
    https://www.reuters.com/article/japan-stocks-close/nikkei-rises-to-1-week-high-but-breaks-9-week-winning-streak-idUSL3N1NN2CP
    Asia: (CNBC)
    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/16/asia-markets-global-equities-tax-reform-oil-prices-in--focus.html
    Current Futures: Mixed
    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
  • ZEOIX mixed?
    I see pluses and minuses for the fund. I looked at it a couple years ago in my IRA and decided it wasn't worth the cost, high exp. ratio and TF at Schwab. If you are using it as a "superior mattress fund" outside a brokerage, wouldn't buying a 5 year CD be even more comfy thean that mattress fund? CD's make about the same yearly return and (IM<HO) CD's have no place to go but up. HY bonds, even very short term, you can't guarantee the same. In fact down is more likely.
    You won't get very good CD or money market rates at a brokerage, so if that's the case ZEOIX may be a good option. But if you are talking money that has more options, money that you want to stash in a safe place, I wouldn't go there. I'd start looking at CD's.
  • Baird LargeCap Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1282693/000089418917006085/baird-lrgcap_497e.htm
    497 1 baird-lrgcap_497e.htm SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS
    Rule 497(e)
    1940 Act File No. 811-09997
    1933 Act Registration No. 333-40128
    BAIRD FUNDS, INC.
    Supplement to Prospectus dated May 1, 2017
    and Summary Prospectus dated May 1, 2017
    As Previously Supplemented September 29, 2017
    Baird LargeCap Fund
    (Investor Class: BHGSX)
    (Institutional Class: BHGIX)
    The Board of Directors of Baird Funds, Inc. (the “Company”), based upon the recommendation of Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated (“Baird”), the investment adviser to the Baird LargeCap Fund (the “Fund”), has determined to close and liquidate the Fund. The Board has concluded that it would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders that the Fund be closed and liquidated as a series of the Company effective as of the close of business on or about December 28, 2017 (the “liquidation date”). As previously announced, Baird and L2 Asset Management, LLC (“L2”), the Fund’s subadviser, have mutually agreed to terminate the Sub-Advisory Agreement between Baird and L2 and the Fund was closed to new purchases and incoming exchanges effective after market close on October 4, 2017 (except purchases made by existing accounts of current shareholders of the Fund and purchases made through the automatic reinvestment of Fund distributions).
    The Board has approved a Plan of Liquidation (the “Plan”) that determines the manner in which the Fund will be liquidated. Although the Fund is closed to most new purchases, you may continue to redeem your shares of the Fund as provided in the Fund’s Prospectus.
    The Fund’s portfolio managers will likely increase the Fund’s assets held in cash and cash equivalents in order to prepare for the orderly liquidation of the Fund. As a result, the Fund is expected to deviate from its stated investment objective, policies and strategies. All remaining assets held by the Fund will be liquidated as of the close of business no later than December 22, 2017. Baird will bear all expenses of the liquidation to the extent such expenses are not part of the Fund’s customary fees and operating expenses.
    Pursuant to the Plan, shareholders who have not exchanged or redeemed their shares of the Fund prior to the liquidation date will have their shares redeemed in cash and will receive one or more payments representing the shareholder’s proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund as of the liquidation date, subject to any required withholdings. Shareholders (other than tax-qualified plans or tax-exempt accounts) will recognize gain or loss for federal income tax purposes on the redemption of their Fund shares in the liquidation. In addition, the Fund and its shareholders will bear the transaction costs and tax consequences associated with the disposition of the Fund’s portfolio holdings prior to the liquidation date. The Fund expects to make a distribution of net capital gains and net investment income, if any, on December 26, 2017, with a final distribution of the proceeds from the liquidation of the Fund to be made promptly following the liquidation date. Shareholders should consult their tax adviser for further information about federal, state and local tax consequences relative to their specific situation.
    Important Information for Retirement Plan Investors
    If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax adviser regarding the consequences of redeeming Fund shares. If you hold your Fund shares through a tax-deferred retirement account, you should consult with your tax adviser or account custodian to determine how you may reinvest your redemption proceeds on a tax-deferred basis. If you will receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account (IRA) or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA that is terminating as a result of the liquidation of the Fund, you must either roll the proceeds into another IRA within 60 days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year, if applicable, or request the distribution be made directly to another IRA or eligible retirement plan. Please note you can make only one tax-free rollover of a distribution you receive from an IRA to another (or the same) IRA in any 12-month period, regardless of the number of IRAs you own. If you receive a distribution from a 403(b)(7) custodian account (tax-sheltered account) or a Keogh account, you must roll the distribution into an eligible retirement plan within 60 days in order to avoid disqualification of the plan and inclusion of the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you are the trustee of a qualified retirement plan or the custodian of a 403(b)(7) custodian account (tax-sheltered account) or a Keogh account, you may reinvest the proceeds in any way permitted by its governing instrument.
    This Supplement should be retained with your Prospectus for future reference.
    The date of this Prospectus Supplement is November 16, 2017.
  • Your Choice: One Mutual Fund to Hold For the Next 10-15 Years
    The "technicalities" concern owning just one fund. By hypothesis, one would have to divest of other investments prior to going on that "three hour tour". So an investor would be stuck with lots of cash (as well as holding that fund) if the fund were presently (hard-) closed.
    The possibility that the selected fund might close in the future while one is on that island is of no import, because even hard closed funds allow reinvestment of dividends. Thus a purported advantage of passive investments (that they don't close) isn't real.
    With that in mind, would you reconsider your newly stated preference for passive investments? Also, what does "equity instrument" mean? Does it include ETNs, individual securities, perhaps even perps, or just mutual funds?
    I agree with the "global equity" aspect, and stated so previously. I didn't suggest a fund because (with a cursory look) I didn't see one that particularly excited me. The usual suspects all seem to be showing signs of bloat, and few others stand out (to me).
    FLPSX has been suggested - it's virtually a global fund anyway (50/40 US/foreign). But it is also huge (Tillinghast manages other funds as well in a similar style) and has management risk (Tillinghast is 59, and Fidelity started adding comanagers six years ago). I'd also prefer something with more EM exposure. DODWX is better with EM exposure, but is lacking in small (or even midcap) exposure.
  • AAII Investor Sentiment Survey: Bullish Sentiment Crashes
    FYI: It looks like all of the negative talk from some high profile investors in recent days has made its way into the heads of individual investors, causing them to turn increasingly bearish on equities. According to this week’s sentiment survey from AAII, bullish sentiment crashed from 45.1% down to 29.35%. That’s the largest one-week decline since April 2013! With bullish sentiment now sporting a 20-handle, it’s also safe to say that the streak of sub 50% readings that has been in place for 150 straight weeks now won’t be broken anytime soon.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/bullish-sentiment-crashes-2/