FYI: Bill Nygren calls himself a value investor: He buys stocks selling at a deep discount to what he thinks the underlying businesses are worth.
So he isn’t surprised when shareholders in his $20 billion Oakmark Fund raise their eyebrows upon finding out that he owns high-flying technology names like Apple Inc., Alphabet Inc. and Netflix Inc. With a price-earnings ratio of 241, Netflix is no obvious bargain in a market that trades at a 22 multiple.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/how-top-bargain-hunters-learned-to-love-the-high-flying-faangs-37546.html?print

@davidrmoran
Some may prefer a chart with a $10,000 baseline start point, as with the below M* graph for FSICX. I seldom use this, unless I'm at the page doing something else.
If I'm interested in a "what if" had I chosen one investment vs another in terms of an actual dollar value; I'll place the ticker symbols into the charts like I linked in the earlier post, set a begin point, view the total return to the current date and then use my handy-dandy HP-12C calculator to find how much "money" I would have made on a $87,000 investment into FSICX over a 1 year time period. I round the total % return to the nearest 1/10th percentage, and in the example, would have a cash gain of $4,785, more or less; as FSICX has a 1 year percentage return of 5.5%. I personally don't need more than the view of percentage returns. Although all I really needed to satisfy my curiosity was the percentage returns.
But, we all process values differently in our brains; and in particular, various types and styles of graphic displays are more pleasing and understandable to the viewer of data. I'm sure studies have been performed of this process. In particular, for a graphic; I don't find scatter or dot plots graphics to be pleasing to my brain input and processing the view for a meaningful "ah-ha" moment of understanding.
Our wonderful world of online instant data in various formats should be of great benefit for investors willing to discover the style that suits their needs. Not unlike the various add-ons one finds most pleasing with the final preparation of a hot dog or hamburger.
I try to keep all of this as simple as possible, as I fully understand the limits of my abilities to process whatever data into meaningful results.
http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/FSICX/quote.html
Take care,
Catch

Butterfly spreads are options trades when you think the uderlying stock or ETF will stay within a given range. Some options trades do have weird/funky names to them.
Say ABC is at 32.51 ... you can set up a butterfly spread with the max profit reachedat either 30 or 35 if you think it will move into that range.

@Old_Joe.... Butterfly sounds like something you would hear on an infomercial for get rich quick schemes at 0500.

Like most I have assumed [gradual upward drift in rates] would mean trouble for bond fund performance, and generally I am skeptical of 'this time it's different'. But the fed fund rate has tripled since 12/15 (still very low of course), and if you compare over that period two pairs of similar-performing bond funds, FTBFX + DODIX and PONDX + FSICX, it seems as though they hardly notice. Must this be because the rate is so low and not the 4%-5% of "normal" economic times?

Intuitively, it makes sense to consider multipliers in rates ("rate has tripled"). For example, if you've got a long term bond paying 1% ($1 on a $100 bond), and then market rates triple to 3%, you'd expect the price to get cut on the order of 2/3 - so that the buck of interest would then represent a 3% yield on the $34 bond price. But such effects are already incorporated into the duration figure, so all that matters is the amount of increase (in this example, 2%), not the multiplicative factor.
So while it's true that fed fund rates tripled from 0.5% on Dec 17, 2015 to its current value of 1.5% on Dec. 13, 2017, if one is using duration to estimate price change, what matters is that the rate rose by 1.0%.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Where the two perspectives (multiplicative rate change and incremental rate change) come together is in how the duration is calculated. The lower the current rate, the larger the duration for a given bond. So when rates are low and a 1% increase represents a tripling, the duration of a bond is relatively high. If rates were at 4% and a 1% increase represented merely a 25% increase in the rate, the duration of the same bond would be lower. Intuition isn't wrong, it just needs to be applied judiciously.
A second consideration is which rate increase is the appropriate one to look at. When rates increase, the yield curve does not shift up uniformly. It may flatten (longer term rates shifting less) or steepen (longer term rates shifting up more rapidly). So it is important to look at the appropriate portion of the curve. For that matter, it's also important to look at the appropriate curve - high yield, corporate, treasury, etc.
For example, the Federated page I cited above shows that the 10 year treasury yield rose 1.00% between 7/29/16 and 12/31/16. During that period of time, the fed funds rate rose just 0.25% - from 0.5% set on Dec. 17, 2015 to 0.75% on Dec 14, 2016. If one wants to look at multiples, the fed funds rate rose 50%, while the 10 year treasury yield went from 1.46% to 2.45%, a 67% increase.
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldYear&year=2016
It's not so much that "this time is different", but that every time is a bit different. Yield curves shift differently based on economic conditions and people's expectations. When investors expect a recession, they may bid up long term bonds (pushing down their rates) to lock in yields. Should the fed funds rate be raised at the same time, that would likely strengthen the decline of long term rates.
For an example of how each time is different, look at the Federated data: from 8/21/10 to 3/31/11, ten year treasury yields rose 1.00%, and the US Aggregate index dropped 0.77%.
From 7/29/16 to 12/31/16 the ten year yield again dropped 1.00%. But this time, the aggregate index lost over 3%.

Howdy @davidrmoran
Although I watch bond funds and Treasury yields, I have not viewed this mix together; so I threw your mentions along with FCBFX.

Chart (below) for a 1 year period through March 6, 2018. During this period there were 2 yield bumps of some consequence versus a smooth uptrend, being Sept. 7 and Dec. 14, 2017.
For these 5 funds, the following total returns for 1 year are:
FSICX = +5.5%
PONDX = +5.1%
FCBFX = +3.1%
DODIX = +2.4%
FTBFX = +1.5%

Since Sept. 7, 2017.......
FSICX = +.4%
PONDX = +.4%
FCBFX = -1.9%
DODIX = -.8%
FTBFX = -2.1%
Since Dec. 14, 2017.......
FSICX = +.2%
PONDX = -.8%
FCBFX = -2.4%
DODIX = -1.1%
FTBFX = -1.8%
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?FTBFX,DODIX,PONDX,FSICX,FCBFX&p=5&O=011000
One year chart of yield changes for 30,10,5 and 1 year Treasury issues.These, of course; are not the original issues yields, but the yields as determined by market forces. In this case of yield and not performance, the % increase shown at the right edge are the % change upward in the yield for the 1 year period.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?$UST30Y,$UST10Y,$UST5Y,$UST1Y&p=5&O=011000
Well, beyond central bank plans and such, overall; with the equity market shakes of the past several weeks, folks have not been running to safe haven bonds. Maybe individuals; but apparently the big money is missing. Are they go'in to cash? I don't have a clue.
But, as we began shedding equity; we did not move into safe haven bonds, as would have been the case 10 years ago, the sell money moved into money market. And there it sleeps for now, earning a tiny annual yield, but safe from a large draw down.
Take care,
Catch

>> how about a market where rates gradually drift higher (lower bond prices)?
Like most I have assumed this would mean trouble for bond fund performance, and generally I am skeptical of 'this time it's different'. But the fed fund rate has tripled since 12/15 (still very low of course), and if you compare over that period two pairs of similar-performing bond funds, FTBFX + DODIX and PONDX + FSICX, it seems as though they hardly notice. Must this be because the rate is so low and not the 4%-5% of "normal" economic times?

XHB and IYR are two ETFs that are exposed to this sector.
Seeking Alpha Article:

iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR) has delivered a NEGATIVE total return (-2.9%) over the last year, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained +17.7% and +28.9%, respectively. And the REIT performance is even worse when you look across certain sub-sectors. Additionally metrics worth noting is short interest (a lot of investors are still betting against certain REITs by selling them short)

market-rover-100-plus-big-dividend-reits-mass-exodus-continues

"but you are less likely to get caught in a sharp downdraft"
What is the objective, starting with why invest in bonds? This is not a flippant question. If preservation is paramount, with an eye to getting a little something, as opposed to, say, diversifying a portfolio, then cash/CDs/Savings Bonds meet that need.
The question posed suggests that at least part of the objective is to avoid losing in a sharp downdraft. But how about a market where rates gradually drift higher (lower bond prices)? If the drift is slow enough, one could do better than ultra short bonds by going longer, taking a somewhat bigger hit on price, but making that up with higher yields. Then again, if the focus is on preventing losses in a sharp downdraft, cash provides better protection.
I've written before that in taxable accounts, I like short-intermediate munis (such as VMLUX that sma3 mentioned). They can provide as much after-tax income as taxable bonds, while interest rates on munis tend shift less than they do on taxable bonds (because muni nominal rates are just a fraction of taxable bond rates).
Skeet listed bond categories that are positive YTD. There's yet another category, one where every fund is positive YTD. At least it used to be a category, before it imploded during a sharp downdraft. All that remains are three survivors, not enough any more for their own category.
Adjustable rate (not floating rate) bond funds. Back in '91, Scott Burns wrote of "the growing number of funds dedicated to adjustable rate mortgages. ... Adjustable Rate Mortgage funds may be the Ultimate Intermediate Security ­ ­ ­ they provide the return of 5 to 10 year securities with the price volatility of a 1 or 2 year security."
Then reality came along around 1994 and crushed theory. The category crashed and burned, most funds were converted to different types of funds or shuttered. For example, T. Rowe Price's Adjustable Rate U.S. Government Fund became T. Rowe Price Short-Term U.S. Government Fund March 31, 1995, which merged into PRWBX around Nov 1, 2000. The three survivors (this is not a recommendation) are: FEUGX, FISAX, EKIZX.
As I recall, the problem with these funds was that the rates didn't adjust fast enough, prices dropped quickly, and a feedback loop developed. Not 100% sure, though. The major point is that buying into any particular line of reasoning may be the investing equivalent of buying a Maginot Line (or a "wall", if one wants to update that). The minor point is that how interest rates move can affect prices in unexpected ways.
Circling back to earlier points: if preservation is paramount, IMHO cash/CDs etc. do the best job. If there are other objectives, one can protect against some rising rate risks at the expense of exposure to other rate risks, or diversify using a variety of bond fund types.
Here's a 2 page pdf from Federated showing the rising interest rate periods from 1993 through 2016, and how a few different types of bond indexes did (e.g. HY, EM) during those periods. Federated lists a half dozen different type of funds that might be useful, followed of course by the funds it offers in those categories.
http://www.federatedinvestors.com/FII/daf/pdf/literature/45685.pdf

I'll give it a shot...
The fund currently has $5.2 BN of assets. I think the costs involved in buying and selling the actual stocks or an etf that holds the stocks would most likely exceed the "cost" of the swaps when you'd have to buy and sell more than $1.25 BN at month-end. The swaps also rebalance with no activity because they're based on Barclay's index and that helps keep costs down as well.
The most important aspect I think is that the swaps let Doubleline invest that $5.2 BN in bonds to generate income which has historically more than offset the cost of the swaps and therefore has added to the return.
I certainly don't think the fund is made less risky by using the swaps but I don't think it's made a lot more risky either. In my opinion they do a good job with the ladder of swaps and the liquidity of the bonds so I don't have a lot of concern but without knowing the terms of the swaps I don't think we can be sure.
If the fund experienced very large redemptions in a short period of time and if they weren't able to redeem swaps before their maturity then the fund could end up over-invested in stocks. Presumably the reason for a run would be stocks going down so that would make the fund riskier. I'd hope they have a clause in their swaps that allows them to redeem them before they mature, maybe with a penalty, and that would mostly address the problem. They also have to be able to liquidate bonds to deal with redemptions. Anytime I've looked at the portfolio I've been comfortable that they have enough highly liquid bonds to deal with anything normal, but in an extreme case, especially one where the bond market dried up, then I guess that could be a problem but they'd probably just give shareholders the actual bonds to meet redemptions rather than cash.
In general I don't think the structure of the fund creates more risk than most other funds but some of the details I don't think we know could sway me if they had overlooked the potential need for flexibility with maturities of the swaps.

Hi @Old_Skeet
This house, not unlike your's; "hearts" investing profits, but capital preservation is imperative.
As interest rates continued to creep up in late 2017, and viewing reactions over a period of months found real estate to continue very weak into early 2018......all of our real estate was sold. Also took the money and run from broad Europe holdings.
As the equity markets became more "insane" in January, sold away most of our technology and healthcare related.
In mid-January our portfolio was about 80% equity and is currently at 38.5%. The majority of this remains in tech. and healthcare related.
As bonds were still stuck in "suck land", what would have been a normal area for us to travel to with equity sells, all moved to plain cash.
So, we took the money and ran. Below is where we are parked at this moment.
EQUITY = 38.5%
BONDS = 21.4%
CASH = 40.3%
Sidenote: small caps continue to attempt to become better performers, so far this year.
Take care,
Catch

FYI: Investors appear to be paring exposure to U.S. bonds as selloff pressure endures in the world’s largest debt market.
The biggest fixed-income exchange-traded fund -- the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF, ticker AGG -- was hit by a record $798 million outflow Monday, the largest one-day withdrawal since its September 2003 inception.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/u-s--aggregate-bond-etf-hit-by-largest-one-day-outflow-on-record-37520.html?print
M* Snapshot AGG:
http://www.morningstar.com/etfs/ARCX/AGG/quote.html

FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
They were in a culture where they believed their vision and values have carried them for the past 30 years and were continuing to carry them," said Sister Nora Nash, who oversees retirement funds for Sisters of St. Francis of Philadelphia, which led the proposal. "Obviously, there was tremendous risk in their culture, and we need to take a serious look at the code of ethics, accountability and really look at the needs of the customer and community."
Regards,
Ted
https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=u-mfWtHsFc685gKE2JS4Ag&q=How+nuns+got+Wells+Fargo+to+address+its+ethical+lapses&oq=How+nuns+got+Wells+Fargo+to+address+its+ethical+lapses&gs_l=psy-ab.3..35i39k1.6635.6635.0.13834.3.2.0.0.0.0.100.100.0j1.2.0....0...1.2.64.psy-ab..1.2.211.6...113.xpJHvAOP-AI

Investing.com combines the S&P 500 Futures with "News of the Day"...hover over the "N" of the chart linked.
https://investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-futures
What's that saying? "Buy the Rumor...sell the News", but a lot of news these days is T"rumor"p. "Maybe short or sell the the T-"rumor"-p...forget the news".
what-does-buy-the-rumor-sell-the-news-mean

MAINX is up YTD +1.73%. Morningstar "World Bond" category, but we all know Matthews is an all-Asia shop. (07 March, 2018 early in the day before US Market opens.) The best I can produce from among my own holdings right now as to fixed income is PRSNX, down by -0.35% YTD. Morningstar also puts it in "World Bond" category. Not exactly apples-to-apples comparison, though. My EM PREMX YTD is down by -1.39%. Venezuelan bonds the reason? Probably to some extent. The monthly div. has been shrinking, too. I like to compare PREMX with Fidelity's FNMIX. YTD, FNMIX is down by -1.4%.

Howdy,
Getting crazier and crazier. Way too insane for me. I'm further lightening up.
Oh, and while I hate to predict things - kids, this doesn't look like it's going to end well for anyone anywhere on the planet.
Time to go batten down the hatches. As Cpl. Ford used to say back some 50 years ago, 'keep your flak jackets close and your asses low'.
and so it goes,
peace,
rono

Hello,
Due to rising interest rates I've reduced my bond fund positions (from nine funds to six) within my income sleeve and I'm increasing my CD Ladder along with adding to my convertible securities fund plus a few other hybrid funds as well. I'm thinking most bond funds are going to take a hit in a rising interest rate environment I don't care how highly rated they might be or how good they are. Bond funds in general are going to take a hit in a rising interest rate environment. There is no magic sauce to prevent this although some will fair better than others.
Within my fixed income sleeve the average duration is 2.7 years with an average maturity of 5.35 years. Thus far this year on a total return basis the sleeve is at break even with my bank loan fund (GIFAX) and a strategic income fund (NEFZX) performing the best. In my hybrid income sleeve my best performer is my convertible securities fund (FISCX) followed by some hybrid type income funds (AZNAX) and (ISFAX). These funds are carrying their respective sleeves and if it was not for their stellar returns thus far this year both these sleeves would have negative year-to-date total returns. In addition, faltering funds might get trimmed and/or eliminated as the year progresses.
With this, I'm planning on expanding the size of my step positions within my CD Ladder as the steps mature plus I may add some more to my convertible securities fund and the other hybrid income funds that have positive year-to-date returns.
If you have a fixed income fund with positive total returns thus far this year please let your fellow MFO members know. I'm thinking they are few and far between. In my review of Morningstar's Fund Category Returns the bond fund categories with positive year-to-date returns are emerging markets, bank loan, world bond, non traditional bond, and ultra short bond.
I have provided a link below to Morningstar's Category Fund Return site.
http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/
The pickings seem to be thin within fixed income funds that have positive year-to-date returns.
Old_Skeet

Will check global futures later tonight for any reaction; other than the more than -1.5% current for U.S. markets. Asia will be open soon.

FYI: U.S. stocks were higher Tuesday in a session marked by swings in and out of negative territory as investors debated the potential impact of a trade war in the wake of President Donald Trump announcing a pair of tariffs, a strategy that has faced opposition from key Republicans like House Speaker Paul Ryan.
Regards,
Ted
Ted
Bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-05/equity-gains-to-reach-asia-as-trade-worries-ease-markets-wrap
Reuters:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-street-advances-on-signs-of-north-korea-talks-idUSKCN1GI1FR
MarketWatch:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-aims-at-2nd-day-of-gains-as-trump-tariff-plan-faces-gop-push-back-2018-03-06/print
IBD:
https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/this-index-beats-the-nasdaq-as-stocks-rally-chips-and-computers-lead-again/
CNBC:
https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/stocks-skid-but-nasdaq-rises-on-three-pieces-of-good-news/
AP:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/F/FINANCIAL_MARKETS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
Bloomberg Evening Briefing:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-06/your-evening-briefing
Curriencies:
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-global-forex/dollar-falls-as-korea-talk-offsets-trade-worries-idUSKBN1GI050
Bonds:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasury-yields-slide-as-congressional-republicans-push-back-on-tariffs-2018-03-06/print
Gold:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-gains-as-dollar-index-drops-with-korea-talks-trade-row-under-watch-2018-03-06/print
Oil:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-gains-as-global-equities-find-their-footing-2018-03-06/print
WSJ: MarketS At A Glance:
http://markets.wsj.com/us
SPDR's Sector Tracker:
http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
SPDR's Bloomberg Sector Performance Pie Chart:
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/sectors
Current Futures: Positive
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
Quote
Quote

FYI: In an earlier post looking at breadth among the different industry groups in the S&P 500, we noted that Retailing was the top performing group in the S&P 500 YTD with a gain of over 15%. Looking at the table below, however, you would have hardly guessed by looking at the performance of brick and mortar retailers in the S&P 500 on a YTD basis. Of the 25 individual brick and mortar companies listed, just nine are up YTD, and the average YTD performance of these stocks has been a decline of 0.77%. To be sure, there have been some winners with stocks like Kohl’s (KSS) and Macy’s (M) up over 20% and a total of five stocks up more than 10%. At the other end of the list, though, there are also five stocks down by double-digit percentages.
The table below shows the YTD returns of all the stocks in the S&P 500 Retailing Industry Group. That includes all the names highlighted above plus the four non-traditional brick and mortar retailers in the group (highlighted in green). As shown, all four of the stocks not listed in the table above have seen stellar returns so far in 2018, with Netflix’s (NFLX) 67% gain leading the way higher. Right behind NFLX, Amazon (AMZN) has rallied over 30%, while Booking (BKNG) and Trip Advisor (TRIP) round out the top five. In this table, we have also included a column showing what each company’s market cap equals as a percentage of the industry group’s total market cap. By itself, AMZN accounts for almost 45% of the industry group, while NFLX accounts for another 8.4%. BKNG is no slouch either at 6.1% of the industry group’s total market cap. What’s really amazing about these four stocks is that together they account for just under 60% of the industry group’s total market cap, yet when you think retail, for most people they aren’t the first companies that typically come to mind.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/how-can-this-be-the-best-performing-industry-group-in-the-sp-500/
M* Snapshot FSRPX:
http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/FSRPX/quote.html