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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The Dukesters Fund Corner II. More portfolios
    @Art
    One of the things I like to do is input the holdings into Xray. In doing this provides me some insight as to your overall portfolio's structure. In review of Xray, I am finding that your portfolio is 142% long, 42% short mostly in the cash and bond areas. The net asset allocation is 18% Cash, 41% US Stocks, 17% Foreign Stocks, 23% Bonds and 2% Other. Within equities it appears you are 50% large & 50% smids. The portfolio appears to have a value tilt with a P/E ratio of 16.66% but is short in the defensive sectors (at about 14% allocated) consisting of staples, health care and utilities. In addition, Morningstar indicates your mutual fund expense ratio on the portfolio is 0.98%. Is this by design?
    Could you share with me and others your positioning along with expectations. If my assessment is close then was this allocation planned or just a happening? And, why? Also, could you share with us tools you use to know what your have and also monitor your portfolio. In addition, is there some things you would like to comment on that your feel might be of interest and possibly a tip you might have for others that has helped you in the past.
    Thanks,
    Old_Skeet
  • The Dukesters Fund Corner II. More portfolios
    Puddnhead, I will start a new thread for my portfolio.
    I am 59, married(3rd time) with plans to retire in 3 years. I will have 40+ years as an IBEW member and have a defined benefit along with a 401 at the workplace. The DB will pay about $150/month per year of service. The exes will get some of that. I also have a small ROTH and IRA. Live in the Midwest. No mortgage. No kids but recent wife has 2 so I inherited grandkids. Portfolio percentages are rounded up or down for convenience. The smaller %'s are in the ROTH and IRA. My wife also has a 401 with DFA and a ROTH. I am not including these monies but when you put it all together and add SS I should have enough money to live on and take the yearly vacation to Florida or somewhere warm, so why do I fret over money spent on kids and grandkids? I guess one of us needs to be conservative while the other spends. Probably like that in most marriages.
    PTTDX-22%
    Cash-11%
    OARIX-11%
    PCVAX-10%
    CHTTX-10%
    OARBX-7%
    VFINX-6%
    AMRMX-5%
    FPACX-4%
    EVGBX-3%
    FARNX-3%
    IVWIX-2%
    ARTGX-2%
    GPROX-2%
    VVPSX-2%
  • The Dukester's Fund Corner II
    @Puddnhead commented:
    The economy is booming in our neck of the woods.
    From this linlked article is an alarming statistic for the Pittsburg, PA area related to Retail Debt Delinquencies.
    image
  • Your Choice: One Mutual Fund to Hold For the Next 10-15 Years
    I like Old_Skeet's idea of a global balanced fund for a one-and-done fund. Although it does not have a long track record, RPGAX has both a great start and all of TRP's resources behind it. I'd feel comfortable putting this in a UGTM account or investing on behalf of "widows and orphans" and leaving it alone for a long time. Over the last 25 years I have become disenchanted with several balanced funds and sold them. Currently own BRUFX and RPGAX. My TIAA account has a slice of Vanguard Balanced.
  • The Chink in the Armor of Retail -$1T of HY Debt is coming due Across all Industries
    Retail only makes up 2% of the $1T of HY debt maturing over the next 5 years, but as an prior owner of FAIRX (large holding of SHLD) and an investor in FSRPX I've been paying close attention to Retail.
    Why is Retail Struggling?
    The root cause is that many of these long-standing chains are overloaded with debt—often from leveraged buyouts led by private equity firms. There are billions in borrowings on the balance sheets of troubled retailers, and sustaining that load is only going to become harder—even for healthy chains.
    The debt coming due, along with America’s over-stored suburbs and the continued gains of online shopping, has all the makings of a disaster. The spillover will likely flow far and wide across the U.S. economy. There will be displaced low-income workers, shrinking local tax bases and investor losses on stocks, bonds and real estate. If today is considered a retail apocalypse, then what’s coming next could truly be scary.
    Article (Bloomberg):
    America’s ‘Retail Apocalypse’ Is Really Just Beginning
  • Your Choice: One Mutual Fund to Hold For the Next 10-15 Years
    I'll go with American Funds ... Global Balanced Fund (GBLAX). There are many ticker symbols for this fund including a no load F-1 ticker of GBLEX. This is a team managed fund with global exposure to both domestic and foregin securities. Although, I don't own this fund I do own Capital Income Builder (CAIBX) which is also considered a world allocation fund and one I have owned for a good number of years. From my perspective either one would be a good choice. Capital Income Builder focus more on income generation while Global Balance takes a more balanced approach towards income and growth. Both funds can be opened with only $250.00. So, they are well suited for a starting investor as I was at the age of 12.
    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/GBLAX/quote.html
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________
    Trailing comment after reading a few comments below. Folks, remember Old_Skeet's first investment (at age 12) was FKINX a hybrid type fund because it gave me exposure to both the bond and stock markets. Like wise, GBLAX does the same thing but from a global perspective. In addition, it has according to Xray about a 23% weighting in growth along with having about a 25% weighting (combined) in the technology and health care sectors. Being team and sleeved managed reduces manager risk.
    Again, I staying with my pick.
  • Your Choice: One Mutual Fund to Hold For the Next 10-15 Years
    Considering that I'm just 31 i might go with GPMCX. Should check ages of its current team leader though.
    Robert Gardiner has to be in the neighborhood of 60, he's been in the investment industry since 1981, but I guess he didn't start Grandeur Peak for 10-15 years of his own thing. I'd guess he'll be around most of his life.
    The two current co-managers, Amy Hu Sunderland and Mark Madsen are both young. I'd guess somewhere around 40 for both of them.
    Blake Walker, who isn't managing the fund anymore but is the CEO and the manager of many of the other funds, is also young. I'd guess he's also right around 40.
    With all the GP funds, I'd guess Gardiner is really the key driver of the process. I'd suspect most of those who came with him from Wasatch were people who think a lot like he does and given the team approach to their research process I wouldn't worry too much about ages and/or succession planning.
  • The Dukester's Fund Corner II
    Morning Pud: I did a quick run through & it appears you have approximately 25% of portfolio from 401-k to invest ? I'm in the same boat only with a little more 33% to put to work. I'm awaiting a pull back to start DCA .
    Good investing to all,
    Derf
  • The Dukester's Fund Corner II
    Hi guys!
    Some personal information to start. I live in PA, newly retired with pension and social security. Mrs. Pudd works at the Post Office. Our son, a college grad, has moved out and is working in his profession. So, it's just us and the Dukester.
    The economy is booming in our neck of the woods. Everybody's working and spending from the looks of things. Now, to the good stuff:
    cash - 30%
    Asset Allocation
    BTBFX
    VWINX - 24% - done!
    Large Caps
    DSENX
    PRBLX - 4%
    FUSVX - 3%
    PARWX - 2%
    Sector
    RAANX
    FSPHX - 5% - done!
    Mid Caps
    PARMX
    UMBMX - 2%
    Bonds - will wait 'til rates rise further to add.
    PONDX - 7% - done!
    GIBLX
    PTIAX
    Overseas
    FTIPX - 5.5%
    FMIJX - 4%
    GLFOX - 6.5%
    Hot Money
    FSRFX - will be sold before 2018.
    FJSCX - 4% - will be sold but don't know when yet.
    Those funds not marked with a percentage (%) have small holdings, as you can guess by now.
    Again, this is a portfolio under construction due to a rollover to an IRA from a 401 account.
    Must go now --- why? One word........leaves!
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • Buy - Sell - and - Ponder November 2017
    Here is the barometer report for week ending November 10th.
    This week the barometer closed the week with a reading of 146 putting the 500 Index into fair value territory. The three best peforming sectors for the week were Real Estate (XLRE) +3.24%, Staples (XLP) +2.15% and Energy (XLE) +1.43%. However, the Index (SPY) closed down -0.21%. In addition, short interest dropped with the days to cover moving form 3.3 days to down to 2.5 days. From a technical score perspective there are no sectors with undervalued or oversold readings this week. For the last two weeks Staples (XLP) has been scored undervalued but has now moved into fair value range and was up 2.15% being the second best performer.
    The equity weighting matrix indicates that Old_Skeet is currently overweight equities by +3% at this time within his portfolio. Generally, I usually raise my exposure to equities during the late fall and winter months and begin to lighten up (rebalance) come spring based upon a seasonal investment stretegy.
    Additional Comment ... Monday, November 13th:
    There is no spiff position currently engaged at this time. I am looking for a barometer reading of 156 range, or higher, before a spiff position (in the Index) is opened. With this, a good bit of energy within the technicals will need to be worked off before the Index becomes a spiff buy along with an improvement in the earnings feed. If retail sales disappoints this holiday season a fairly good size nearterm pullback could emerge. However, looking out in 2018 I'm thinking the bull continues to run. With this, and at this time, I will be a buyer of a nearterm pullback. For me, patience is warranted.
    Have a great week ... and, I wish all "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • Your Choice: One Mutual Fund to Hold For the Next 10-15 Years
    Question: Why has PRWCX been so successful over the past decade?
    - Can’t be the manager, since it’s had (by my count) 3 different ones over that time. (And I’d guess it’s pretty much team managed anyhow).
    - Can’t be its nimbleness & small size, because it isn’t.
    - Can’t be its expense ratio of .70%. While competitive, that’s substantially higher than either DODBX or an index fund and lags rival OAKBX by only .10%.
    - Can’t be its great market timing, because Giroux’s been talking nothing but caution for the past 5,000 points of the Dow.
    - Can’t be its broadly diversified approach. The fund world is loaded with such balanced, hybrid, moderate allocation (or whatever other name one wishes to attach) type funds.
    Don’t mean to be disagreeable (comes naturally) - but you can’t invest looking in the rear view mirror. I know the results have been impressive (and own the fund), but desire some logical compelling reason to think that that performance should continue.
  • Your Choice: One Mutual Fund to Hold For the Next 10-15 Years
    DSEEX + PONDX 50-50 beats PRWCX ... except for this year, hmm.
    I'll stick with my PRWCX, despite @davidmoran choosing PONDX and DSEEX. His recipe works, "but not THIS year." OK. But I look and see "class D" PONDX. I truly don't care which CLASS of shares it might be. Because, how many frikkin' classes of shares do you (anyone) NEED? Answer: one. I just won't mess with menus full of different share classes. "See ya later."
    And DSEEX, I understand, is deliberately filled with swaps. Is that not by definition a "synthetic" bet? I'm touchy about that stuff, after watching "The Big Short" again, recently. Also, check out the short-position in cash in PONDX. (-127%. "Net" -48%.) No, thanks. I think an "Average Joe" like me, who "knows just enough to know better" ought to steer clear of such stuff.
    @bee: despite an overall "hold" recommendation, I continue to add to my PNM, in small doses. In terms of P/E it is no longer the bargain it was when I first bought-in at $25.41, but a necessary, regulated electric utility which is embracing solar, in the US Southwest, looks like a good bet to me. And I just got back from a visit in the Tucson, AZ burbs, went up to Sedona, too. Fabulous sightseeing helicopter ride, there.
    "The Big Short."
    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1596363/?ref_=nv_sr_1
    Sedona:
    http://www.gatewaytosedona.com/images/cathedral-rock-sedona-arizona/cathedral-rock-from-lower-loop-sedona.jpg
  • Your Choice: One Mutual Fund to Hold For the Next 10-15 Years

    Huh? Something may be off or I am misreading the graphs.
    From Magellan inception to mid-May '72, M* shows $10k going to ~$123k. ~12x.
    Ted's span from then to fall '96 shows $10k going to ~$589k, for like 59x.
    No?
    Ted invested in a fund that used to grow faster, but had slowed down by the time he invested with relatively lackluster managers "Dick Habermann, PETER LYNCH, Morris Smith, and Jeff Vinik".
    I could invest in a MMF and if I waited long enough I would "outperform" Johnson as well. Of course, and with apologies to Keynes, by then I'd be dead.
    My point was that the managers Ted invested with weren't quite the best that Magellan had offered over its lifetime. Of course they were still outstanding, and Ted did quite well, both in his choice of fund and by staying with the fund a long time. Much longer than the Johnson era lasted, but also far shorter that it would take me with my MMF to get the same total return. Perhaps I should have put a smiley after my comment?
  • Your Choice: One Mutual Fund to Hold For the Next 10-15 Years
    @ MikeM: What year Target would you take? As for me 2025 or possible 2020.
    Derf
  • Your Choice: One Mutual Fund to Hold For the Next 10-15 Years
    My interest in posting this thread:
    At some point in life one may have to make a decision to simplify their investments for the benefit of lovingly clueless relatives.
    Even Warren Buffet has had to face this question:

    Buffett describes advice he has left in his will as to how the trustee should invest money Buffett is leaving for his wife. Here’s Buffett’s advice:
    “My advice to the trustee could not be more simple: Put 10 percent of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90 percent in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund. (I suggest Vanguard’s.)”
    the-warren-buffett-guide-to-retirement-investing
  • Parnassus Still Finds Value When Value Investing Lags: (PARNX)
    @MrRuffles,
    Just a teacher being a (retired) teacher. Details matter. Thanks for the shout out. Wish I had acted on this, but owning Primecap (POAGX up .5% tonight and VHCOX up slightly tonight) helps soothes the wishful "gain pain" or "investors remorse"...whatever you call, "choking on your wine as you hear this "20% gain" on Nightly Business Report".
    Observations are a lot different than the credit that these fund managers deserve for the conviction that they display for identifying the value in these particular companies and the conviction to buy when it was low and out of favor.
    This is why you should own them!
  • Your Choice: One Mutual Fund to Hold For the Next 10-15 Years
    DSEEX + PONDX 50-50 beats PRWCX ... except for this year, hmm.
  • Your Choice: One Mutual Fund to Hold For the Next 10-15 Years
    @msf
    Sure, but by the time you invested, Magellan's best days were behind it. After Ned Johnson put up annual returns averaging 30.3% you had to make do with Lynch's measly 29.2% average performance.
    Huh? Something may be off or I am misreading the graphs.
    From Magellan inception to mid-May '72, M* shows $10k going to ~$123k. ~12x.
    Ted's span from then to fall '96 shows $10k going to ~$589k, for like 59x.
    No?