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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Current Asset Allocation
    https://www.google.com/search?q=corporate+bond+default+rates+historical&oq=corporate+bonds+rates+defau&aqs=heirloom-srp.1.0l5
    Www.moodys.com - sign up and acct registration free to look at muni bonds previous history
    Also call Vanguard bond desk ask sale rep for history of bond cusip before buying ask them. About red flags about missed payments and any potential issues before buying
  • Current Asset Allocation
    @shipwreckandalone
    https://www.google.com/search?q=Google+book+invest+bond&oq=Google+book+invest+bond&gs_l=mobile-heirloom-serp.12...4360.13206.0.14009.24.19.0.5.5.0.183.2441.1j18.19.0....0...1c.1.34.mobile-heirloom-serp..9.15.1486.jbvUOXro7Kk
    Hi sir/mam
    Not Ted but investing in private corp/muni bonds for quite while
    I usually buy bbb- bonds or higher (sometimes bb+ too) do diligence resreach s on cusip before buying. Check company data sheets and devaluation ovtime if companies high risks for default. Google the cusip and if several etf or funds hold the bond you know that bond maybe good to buy
    If you do it for a few years you will get 'hangs of things'
    Read at least 3 or 4 books about bonds before buying... At least this is what I did
    Best thing about buying private Corp or muni bonds you don't have pay annual fees and you can sell Anytime.
    Ted gave a great example hzt Corp grading is bad but the cusip has many etf and funds holding the Corp bond. I also set up a junk Gmail account and place google.com/alerts w 'hertz bankruptcy' title search engine to that Gmail acct. You will get tone junk emails and you will know quickly if you need sell bond or not if any fishy comes up.
    I buy Corp or munis bonds from Vanguard Merrill edge or schwab. Schwab has Corp very safe all bbb- or higher and Vanguard has many bonds include high risks defaults bonds (I tend to stay away from those)
    You can do diligence research w/company evaluations w schwab research (probably one of best research engines in market stick research) before buying bonds...
    You may consider buying just few bonds and see how they do at first.
    Most bonds take at least 1k to 5k to 10k to buy (plus 10 or 20dollars commissions one time fees) . Some good corp bond you think may never bankrup (one time I found) has at least 250k to buy - I could never touch this bond not enough $$ lol. Great bout bonds u never worry about additional fees., good hedge to put in Corp bonds instead of cash, and if u choose safe Corp bonds you maybe sleeping better at night not too much worrying.
    One question I always ask myself is 'is it better to buy 10k of Att Corp bond which yield for 6%over 10or 20+ years or buy Sp500 etf which you will never know yields but risks higher... So the simple answer maybe owing both and owe both vehicles.. You know ATT CORP will never bankrup do its like having cash
    I am 45 yo but have about 20 or 25 %of portfolios in private corp bonds
    Worst thing about corporate individuals bonds are you have to pay capital income taxation to irs and every year you will have to Pay because if Sp500 went down by 20% you do always make 6% from att coupons rate yield
    I had total 3 or 4 defaults bonds and loose all $$capital on the bonds in 2009 and 2010 - I did not know much back then and was too greedy bought b graded bond (which is very badly graded was yield 20%annually)... These bonds belly up over next few yrs and loose all $$... Credit crisis years so lots small companies went out business
    I never buy private reasury bonds Yields so low plus I have 401k at work and part of my portfolio has Treasury automatic placed in it already
    Good luck
  • As Donor-Advised Funds Grow In Popularity, They May Draw More Scrutiny
    FYI: An increasingly popular way to make charitable donations while maintaining the tax benefits of philanthropy could face greater regulatory scrutiny.
    The tax reform law of 2017 eliminated many deductions, including those for charitable contributions, while increasing the standard deduction to $24,000 for couples. In response, so-called donor-advised funds have become a hit.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=6KR7XOvtPKC6jwTt-5moAg&q=As+donor-advised+funds+grow+in+popularity,+they+may+draw+more+scrutiny&btnK=Google+Search&oq=As+donor-advised+funds+grow+in+popularity,+they+may+draw+more+scrutiny&gs_l=psy-ab.3...3017.3017..4082...0.0..0.79.152.2......0....2j1..gws-wiz.....0.dyZBZxFgkjw
  • VMNVX Prospects
    With retirement, I had planned to let this fund manage my money for the next 20 to 35 years. I'm concerned that a new single manager has been assigned. While I trust my judgment for a few years, I know it will decline.
    What's up here? Vanguard rarely relies on a single manager. The fund had some mediocre years, but it was still a M* 4* fund on M*.
    GMO says foreign and/or international funds have the best 7 yr prospects, but the January rally may have changed that assessment.
    While I would like to follow GMO's recommendations, I don't have the resources to engage their services.
    Suggestions appreciated.
  • Tom Madell: How Many Is Too Many?
    Hi guys: As @hank noted ... Here is how Old_Skeet rolls and manages a consolidated portfolio of 49 funds. My thinking is that if you can't manage what you have then you've got to many funds. Being a prior corporate credit manager for a regional distribution company I had to have a receivable system in place to manage a fairly large customer base. Thus, I developed my sleeve management system to help manage my family's investments. Through the years it has worked fairly well. You can read more about this below.
    Sleeve Management System ... Last Revised on 03/01/2019
    Now being in retirement here is a brief description of my sleeve management system which I organized to better manage the investments held within mine and my wife's portfolios. The consolidated master portfolio is comprised of two taxable investment accounts, two self directed retirement accounts, a health savings account plus two bank savings accounts. With this, I came up with four investment areas. They are a cash area which consist of two sleeves ... an investment cash sleeve and a demand cash sleeve. The next area is the income area which consist of two sleeves ... a fixed income sleeve and a hybrid income sleeve. Then there is the growth & income area which has more risk associated with it than the income area and it consist of four sleeves ... a global equity sleeve, a global hybrid sleeve, a domestic equity sleeve and a domestic hybrid sleeve. And, then there is the growth area where the most risk in the portfolio is found and it consist of five sleeves ... a global growth sleeve, a large/mid cap sleeve, a small/mid cap sleeve, a specialty/theme sleeve plus a special investment (spiff) sleeve. Each sleeve (in most cases) consist of three to twelve funds with the size and weight of each sleeve can easily be adjusted, from time-to-time, by adjusting the number of funds held along with their amounts. By using the sleeve system I can get a better picture of my overall investment landscape. I have found it beneficial to Xray each fund, each sleeve, each investment area, and the portfolio as a whole quarterly for analysis. My positions and sleeves can be adjusted from time-to-time as to how I might be reading the markets through using my market barometer and equity weighting matrix system. The matrix system is driven by the barometer. All my funds with the exception of those in my health savings account pay their distributions to the cash area of the portfolio. This automatically builds cash in the cash area to meet the portfolio's disbursements (when necessary) with the residual being left for new investment opportunity. Generally, in any one year, I take no more than a sum equal to one half of my portfolio's five year average return. In this way principal builds over time. In addition, most buy/sell transactions settle from, or to, the cash area with some net asset exchanges between funds taking place. In addition, my rebalance threshold is + (or -) 2% from my target allocation for both my income, growth & income and growth areas while I generally let cash float.
    Consolidated Master Portfolio
    Here is how I have my asset allocation broken out in percent ranges, by area. My neutral allocation weightings follow. They are cash area 15%, income area 35%, growth & income area 35% and growth & other asset area 15%. I do an Instant Xray analysis of the portfolio quarterly and make asset weighting adjustments as I feel warranted based upon my assessment of the market, my risk tolerance, cash needs, etc. I have the portfolio set up in Morningstar's portfolio manager by sleeve, by area and the portfolio as a whole for easy monitoring plus I use brokerage account statements, Morningstar fund reports, fund fact sheets along with their annual reports to follow my investments. I also maintain a list of positions to add (A) to, to buy (B), to reduce (R) or to sell (S). Generally, funds are assigned to a sleeve based upon a best fit basis.
    Currently, my INVESTMENT FOCUS is to increase my portfolio's income stream through positioning new money into income generating assets while letting equities run on the high side to their upper threshold limit.
    Target Asset Allocation (Balanced Towards Income): Cash 20%, Income 40%, G&I 30% & Growth 10%
    Consolidated Master Portfolio Asset Allocation: Cash 16%, Income 39%, G&I 32% & Growth 13%
    Rebalance Action Needed: Decrease Growth Area 1% and Increase Income Area 1%
    CASH AREA: (Weighting Range 10% to 20%)
    Demand Cash Sleeve ... Cash Distribution Accrual & Future Investment Accrual
    Investment Cash Sleeve ... Money Market Funds: AMAXX, GBAXX, DTGXX, PCOXX, CD Ladder(A) &
    Cash Savings(A)
    INCOME AREA: (Weighting Range 30% to 40%)
    Fixed Income Sleeve: CTFAX(A), GIFAX, LBNDX(A), NEFZX, PONAX(A) & TSIAX
    Hybrid Income Sleeve: APIUX, AZNAX, BAICX, DIFAX(A), FISCX(A), FKINX, ISFAX(A), JNBAX, PGBAX & PMAIX
    GROWTH & INCOME AREA: (Weighting Range 30% to 40%)
    Global Equity Sleeve: CWGIX, DEQAX, DWGAX & EADIX(A)
    Global Hybrid Sleeve: CAIBX, TEQIX & TIBAX
    Domestic Equity Sleeve: ANCFX, FDSAX, INUTX(A) & SVAAX
    Domestic Hybrid Sleeve: ABALX, AMECX, FBLAX, FRINX(A), HWIAX & LABFX
    GROWTH & OTHER ASSET AREA: (Weighting Range 10% to 20%)
    Large/Mid Cap Sleeve: AGTHX, AMCPX & SPECX
    Small/Mid Cap Sleeve: AOFAX, NDVAX & PMDAX
    Global Growth Sleeve: ANWPX, NEWFX & SMCWX
    Miscellaneous, Specialty & Theme Sleeve: LPEFX, PCLAX & PGUAX
    Ballast & Spiff Sleeve: No position held at this time.
  • Bright Lining: (LSBRX)
    "Around this time last year ... the Republican agenda was intact."
    @Ted - you put this in play
    The article continues ... "All that changed in the last three months of the year.   ...[Elaine Stokes] says 'We went from a Republican-led agenda to a mixed Congress with stalemate situations '"
    What was that agenda that became stalemated only after September? Serious question. I get nervous when managers let their politics drive their investing.
    According to National Review (Jan 2018),
    At the White House, infrastructure is the big idea. ...
    Speaker of the House Paul Ryan keeps talking up welfare reform: ... He also says that reform of Medicare and Social Security is on his wish list, although he does not see it happening this year.
    Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell, meanwhile, says action on welfare is unlikely but suggests that bipartisan legislation on immigration and financial regulation might be possible.
    https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/01/worthwhile-republican-agenda-2018/
    That was January. In April, CNBC's headline was: Trump keeps calling for major legislation, but Congress isn't listening – especially with midterms coming.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/03/trump-congress-dont-expect-big-legislation-in-2018.html
    It's one thing to have hopes (of whatever political persuasion), it's another for a fund manager to look at a 2018 Congress that was dysfunctional and believe that only now has it become stalemated.
    Especially since much of the major 2018 legislation was bipartisan, e.g. sanctioning of Russia, criminal justice reform, opioid crisis response act. Not to mention the farm bill that passed with wide support once a provision to restrict food stamps was pulled out.
    http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/01/25/a-productivity-scorecard-for-115th-congress/
  • Tom Madell: How Many Is Too Many?
    I have 5 regular funds and 6 ETFs, and a very conservative AA at 35/65.
    I am spread across the global equity market and the domestic bond market (no long term and no junk) with maybe 10% in foreign bonds. I could dump 3-4-5 of the funds and still be as diversified, and still maintain my AA.
    But everything is working so I'll just leave it alone.
  • Tom Madell: How Many Is Too Many?
    FYI: A reader recently raised an important question: Does an investor really need to own a lot of funds, or, can one still expect to obtain good results with a much more limited number of funds, or perhaps, even with as few as one? More specifically, it seems, he was indirectly questioning the need in my last Model Portfolios (Oct. '18) for so many funds (15 stock funds and 11 bond funds to be exact). Even my new "Recommended" stock and bond fund listings (see below), which now replace my Model Portfolios, now show 20 funds altogether.
    Great question! Let's be honest - it would be highly difficult, and most likely unneccesary, for most investors to acquire each and every one of my recommended funds. (Even I don't own all 26 of the Oct. '18 funds, although I do own all of the 20 funds listed below. By way of explanation, I have been at this for more than 2 decades and once I find a fund I am satisfied with, I rarely close it out, thus leading to perhaps too many funds - yes, I admit it.)
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://funds-newsletter.com/mar19-newsletter/mar19_new.htm
  • Current Asset Allocation
    @JohnN: The Hertz Bond is a slam dunk some small capital appreciation, bought at slight discount, plus a 7.375 yield who could ask for anything more.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Current Asset Allocation
    FYI: I'm very happy being out of the market, although I must admit its hard not to be trading !
    Regards,
    Ted
    74.82%: 4 CD (3-6-9-12 Months)
    18.41%: Funds (PONCX 12.37% - MVRXX 6.04%
    6.74%: 50 Hertz 7.375% 1/15/21 Bonds
    03%: Cash ( Morgan Stanley Bank Account)
  • David Snowball's March Commentary Is Now Available
    I have a question as to how/where David got his numbers for the cash holdings for funds in 15/15 funds update piece? In my research, the Artisan Thematic fund doesn't have 30% in cash but instead less than 10% and the FMI International doesn't have 59% in cash.
  • Labor Department investigating Fidelity over hidden mutual fund fees--WSJ

    Translation: "If you're annoyed by these fees, just buy OUR funds!"
    What a lame non-response response by Fido.
    From Fidelity Monitor & Insight:
    "As we went to press, The Wall St. Journal is reporting that an“obscure fee” charged by Fidelity to third-party fund companies for the right to distribute their offerings on Fidelity’s Funds Network platform, has caught the attention of federal regulators. Of central concern is whether a purported fee of 0.15% is being absorbed by the
    fund companies themselves, or if it’s being passed to fund shareholders in the form of higher, undisclosed fees. Note: This matter does not affect Fidelity funds. "
  • Labor Department investigating Fidelity over hidden mutual fund fees--WSJ
    From Fidelity Monitor & Insight:
    "As we went to press, The Wall St. Journal is reporting that an“obscure fee” charged by Fidelity to third-party fund companies for the right to distribute their offerings on Fidelity’s Funds Network platform, has caught the attention of federal regulators. Of central concern is whether a purported fee of 0.15% is being absorbed by the
    fund companies themselves, or if it’s being passed to fund shareholders in the form of higher, undisclosed fees. Note: This matter does not affect Fidelity funds. "
  • Income Ideas From Every Corner Of The Market: (FKIQX)
    FYI: When Ed Perks graduated from Yale University in 1992, he packed up his Mitsubishi hatchback and drove from his childhood home in Levittown, N.Y., to San Francisco. The fact that he didn’t have a job waiting for him in California did little to temper his enthusiasm. “The San Francisco area really stood out to me as an opportunity in the early ’90s because of the community that existed here in the finance industry,” says Perks, who is 48. “You had smaller investment banks and hedge funds, but also established asset managers
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/income-hunting-ignore-the-market-and-focus-on-companies-says-this-fund-manager-51551445200?refsec=bonds
    M* Snapshot FKIQX:
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/fkiqx/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot FKIQX:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/fkiqx
    FKINX Is Rank #6 In The (30%-50%-E) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/allocation-30-to-50-equity/franklin-income-fund/fkinx
  • Bright Lining: (LSBRX)
    FYI: Around this time last year, Elaine Stokes, co-manager of the $11 billion Loomis Sayles Bond Fund, thought the stage was pretty well set for an economic upturn. Most major economic indicators were pointing upward, the Republican agenda was intact, and a recession was the last thing on most people’s minds.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/bright-lining-43471.html?print
    M* Snapshot LSBRX:
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/LSBRX/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot LSBRX:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/lsbrx
    LSBDX Is Ranked #15 In The (MB) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/multisector-bond/loomis-sayles-bond-fund/lsbdx
  • State Funds Enhanced Ultra Short Duration Mutual Fund (STATX) to liquidate
    @TheShadow - You are on the ball!
    I sold $25k of STATX on Thursday, 2/28/2019, and the funds are in my Vanguard settlement account today. It looks to be an orderly closing so far ...
  • The Six Secrets To Beating The Market
    Too easy a charge to make. There were puhlenty of mainstream articles from 20+ years ago, and older, saying that 'here are 5 (or whatever) consistently excellent funds that appear poised to do well over the longterm future'. DODGX, FCNTX, FLPSX, TRBCX, and surely some from Vanguard. And others, but those are in memory. I know because I already owned some and followed their coverage, and w/ OCD about it (then, less so now) was always on the lookout for future adds.
  • The Six Secrets To Beating The Market
    Almost everyone can run a screen that can beet the market looking backwards. Can anyone you tell me how many of them will beat the market in the next 5 years or even 3 years?
    Often money managers that had great records with small amounts of money under management struggle with popularity rises and more assets flow in. Other manager take note as well. They analyze the investments and strategy of the manager and try to replicate the success and suddenly too many fishers are fishing in the same pond and alpha is gone.
    You know there are incubation funds as well. Fund companies incubate funds for 3 or 5 years and if they are successful they are opened to bigger public. So, the previous record is incorporated to the fund that almost never benefited it. There are a lot of tricks the fund industry is playing to show alpha but rearview investing can take so much. Future is uncertain as ever.
  • The Six Secrets To Beating The Market
    Related. Think Ted post this article last yr
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.kiplinger.com/slideshow/investing/T052-S001-10-funds-beat-the-market-another-decade.html
    Most mf have 1 2% annual fees will put large dink in long term returns - long term superior returns may not be possible
  • Ed Slott: Why Roth IRAs Are Here To Stay
    @AndyJ- Oh, yes... some 65 years and many floods. They were a lot more fun when I was a kid. The flood in '95 was the last straw for the old original house. We had to tear that one down and then built the new place. And yes, it's still beautiful: the view over the Russian River from our rear deck hasn't changed at all since I was a kid. Timeless. As long as there's no fire, that is.