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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Reduce Growth Significantly By Being Out Of The Market!
    Somebody needs to send a copy of this “Reduce Growth Significantly By Being Out Of The Market” thread to Warren Buffett.
    Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway dumps $75.5 billion worth of stock and halves Apple stake
    ”Berkshire Hathaway Inc. slashed its stake in Apple Inc. by almost 50% as part of a massive second-quarter selling spree that sent billionaire Warren Buffett's cash pile to a record $276.9
    billion.”
    (Fortune - August 3, 2024)
    But look at the performance of BRK/B since Q3(7-1-24). It beat the SP500 by 8% (https://schrts.co/XnbnPKQD)
  • Schwab Automatic Investment Plan
    There is a maximum fee of $10 (instead of $49.95) when purchasing
    many transaction fee funds via the Schwab Automatic Investment Plan.
    Can investors cancel participation in Schwab's plan after making a single fund purchase?
    Fidelity allows investors to do this in their corresponding plan.
  • Reduce Growth Significantly By Being Out Of The Market!
    Somebody needs to send a copy of this “Reduce Growth Significantly By Being Out Of The Market” thread to Warren Buffett.
    Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway dumps $75.5 billion worth of stock and halves Apple stake
    ”Berkshire Hathaway Inc. slashed its stake in Apple Inc. by almost 50% as part of a massive second-quarter selling spree that sent billionaire Warren Buffett's cash pile to a record $276.9
    billion.”
    (Fortune - August 3, 2024)
  • Mergers and Acquisitions funds
    IMO, Corporate Restructuring is a painful area. Think about all the activist hedge funds and how many blow ups there have been. If any one is itching to entertain themselves with corporate restructuring investing, distress credit investing could be a fruitful one. If that is not enough entertainment, try out deep value equity fund investing. Or pick individual companies that have announced Corporate Restructuring but have not completed. There are many e.g., INTC, BA, KSS, DD, etc. My personal success rate in this category is at best 50%. In any case, try not to work for a company that is in the midst of a corporate restructuring - even as a consultant, it is a bit painful and of course, there are folks that spend their entire life as bankruptcy consultants/ lawyers. Some people are always drawn to a challenge!
  • Reduce Growth Significantly By Being Out Of The Market!
    BB, as I said already it has been proven decades ago that the SP500 beats most mutual funds over long term.
    This is how Vanguard got so big, but millions still trade, go figure.
    Many times the investors who don't know much and do nothing, out perform the ones who know more and trade, including pro fund managers.
    I also have been saying for years that investment sites encourage people to trade more.
    The most revealing are small and often trades without impact.
  • Mergers and Acquisitions funds
    Slightly different category, but "Kinetics Spin-off and Corp Restructuring Fund" (LSHAX) returned roughly 150% YTD for 2024. It holds a whopping 70% in 1 position - Texas Pacific Land Corp.
    Only has $54M in TTL Net Assets.
  • Mergers and Acquisitions funds
    If i want excitement not provided by passive equity funds or active equity funds (practicing some element of factor investing), then I try M&A investing on my own with individual stocks than buy one of these funds. Why waste capital on one of these funds?
    My M&A trades involve my expectations whether a company will be acquired or an announced transaction will fall through. But mostly it is entertainment for me as I do not make much difference to my portfolio (never large enough) but I have done better than many of these funds. The max I ever have is 5% of portfolio - Activision acq by MSFT. It is a needless entertainment, part of growing up as an investor, I tell myself.
    My current M&A play is CPRI. I had not checked M* fair value until now. It says $55 while current price is 23. My mental target has been $30-35. If no announcement of an impending acquisition by then, I bail. I might also bail anytime. Pl do your own DD.
    I personally think good investing is always boring.
  • Mergers and Acquisitions funds
    I always used either MERFX or ARBFX. They always claimed a steady ride, but both blew up in July 2021 when one heavy position blew up. I can't remember which.
    EMAYX far more volatile . I have never been able to tolerate Gabelli's self promotions and bombast. 82 funds there and only one rated 5 stars by M*. I think the SEC went after him a while back too.
    In his favor he signed "Giving Pledge" and is giving away most of his Billions.
  • Mergers and Acquisitions funds
    In the Event Driven category, HMEZX is most steady, but then you have lower expected returns (typcially 4% to 5% annually).
    EVDAX has a much higher SD, but higher overall returns expected.
  • Reduce Growth Significantly By Being Out Of The Market!
    While the above is true, it missed an important fact. What is better, missing the 10 best days or the 10 best worst days? The answer is the worst days.
    Read my link
    Conclusions:
    1. The stock market historically has gone up about two-thirds of the time.
    2. All of the stock market return occurs when the market is already uptrending.
    3. The volatility is much higher when the market is declining.
    4. Most of the best and worst days occur when the market is already declining because markets are much riskier than models assuming normal distributions predict.
    5. The reason markets are more volatile when declining is because investors use a different part of their brain making money than when losing money.
    Timing is difficult but not impossible.
    * Beating the SP500, especially when you have a large portfolio, is not always the goal. Since 2000, my goal has been to have the best risk/reward performance.
    * When US LC doing well, it's usually the best risk/reward category. But, over long time, think 2-3 decades; it's definitely at the top or best. So why do most investors don't use the SP500 as their only stock choice? After all, Bogle and Buffett recommended it for decades.
    * After years of tweaking, exploring and trading, I concluded that timing works very well with slower bond OEFs, and not great with higher volatility categories. Read (link).
  • interesting search construct

    would be interested in hearing how to construct a search that best approximates this finding over multiple (3,5,10,20 yr) time periods :
    "managers with the skill to outperform on the 5% of days with the worst market returns generate about as much unconditional future outperformance as managers with the skill to outperform on the remaining 95% of days"
    very short article well-worth reading...
    https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/want-to-know-if-a-fund-manager-is
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 11/27/24
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 11/27/24
    BEARISH became the top sentiment (38.6%, above average) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (24.3%, below average); bullish became the middle sentiment (37.1%, average); Bull-Bear Spread was -1.5% (below average). Investor concerns: Budget deficit, debt, inflation, the Fed, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (144+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (59+ weeks). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds up, oil flat, gold up, dollar down. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 63.77% (positive). PCE +2.3%, core +2.8%. Stock rally remains intact. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1750/thread
  • Reduce Growth Significantly By Being Out Of The Market!
    I recently received the latest Fidelity Viewpoints newsletter.
    One of the articles referenced in the newsletter is titled "6 reasons why you should consider investing right now."
    According to this article, "a hypothetical investor who missed just the best 5 days in the market since 1988
    could have reduced their long-term gains by 37%."

    I've read many articles over the years which draw similar conclusions, but still find it amazing
    that being out of the market for only a few days has such a detrimental effect on long-term returns.
    This is just one reason why I don't try to time the market!
    https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/wealth-management-insights/reasons-to-invest-now
  • PRWCX availability
    lessons from fishing :
    it is assumed that people realize the MF is not updated daily, and the overlap tool shows in order of combined weight, not in order of weight similarity.
    that being said, i had to go all the way to ~30 on the list to find a stock not in both.
    up to that point, the weight difference looked to be usually ~0.5%.
    when you consider the NAV is ~30X different (w/ similar median mkt caps), and has the same managers, i stand by my view that these equity sleeves are pretty much being run the same. differences in weights are probably just timing and reporting lags.
    and just to be very clear, these different vehicles w/giroux serve to provide a loose commitment to different levels of asset exposure, not explicitly to vary in how that asset is expressed.
  • Vanguard offers new Options for Meeting Investors’ Short-Term Liquidity Needs
    Their MMF competitors would be Treasury MMFs, both for security quality (Treasuries backed by the US government) and IMHO more importantly, for state income tax exemption.
    If you can't find a very cheap Treasury only MMF (e.g. no low min cheap funds at Schwab or at Fidelity), then a 0-3 month Treasury ETF can fill that gap. While costs do matter, if I owned SGOV (0.09% ER), I don't think I would jump ship for Vanguard's new shorter term ETF (0.07% ER).
    If I were still investing at Vanguard, I would carefully consider whether the added limited volatility of an ETF were worth at best a small increase in return over VUSXX.
    Going longer, with Treasuries maturing in up to a full year, theory says one will get better returns in exchange for added volatility. I still buy that theory in the face of data that contradicts that - giving a whole new meaning to faith-based investing :-)
    See Portfolio Visualizer comparing iShares (SHV), Invesco (TBLL), and Goldman Sachs (GBIL) with 3 mo Treasuries (proxy for cash). At least it does show that the cheapest ETF (TBILL, 0.08% ER) comes out best in this space where costs really should be paramount.
    PV comparison
    Something to keep in mind is whether the Vanguard ETFs will be 100% invested in Treasuries. You don't get a tax break for repurchase agreements (see, e.g. FZFXX). While VUSXX is now about 98% Treasuries, a couple of years ago it dipped as low as 50%+ (from memory). Previously it had always held 100% in Treasuries and suddenly changed. In light of that, it remains to be seen what percentage of these ETFs are really invested in true Treasuries.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Thank you, Joe. I tried to place the trade and 25161FZX9 is no longer available at Schwab (was never available at Fido).
    I bought today when the dealers were selling them in the secondary market. Transaction fees applies. Schwab quote includes the transaction fees.
    Not yet available at Fidelity
  • Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 10/31/24
    Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 10/31/24
    Small reductions in stocks. The changes for OEFs + ETFs were based on a total AUM of about $38.42 trillion in the previous month, so +/- 1% change was about +/- $384.2 billion. Also note that these changes were from both fund inflows/outflows & price changes. #ICI #Funds #OEFs #ETFs
    OEFs: Stocks 53.07%, Hybrids 5.76%, Bonds 17.95%, M-Mkt 23.23%
    ETFs: Stocks 82.05%, Hybrids 0.40%, Bonds 17.55%, M-Mkt N/A
    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 61.62%, Hybrids 4.36%, Bonds 17.84%, M-Mkt 17.17%
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1749/thread
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Thank you, Joe. I tried to place the trade and 25161FZX9 is no longer available at Schwab (was never available at Fido).
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Yesterday's post -"3130B3W82 - Inventory at Fidelity and not at Schwab."
    Today, I bought more of and whatever was left of this new issue. Currently, at Fidelity the highest yield of new issue Agencies maturing in 2034 is 5.5% (only one issue). If you would like a higher yield from a new issue Agency, you have to go to 2044 maturity.
    I am inclined to wait until after Thanksgiving for more new issue Agency offerings.