The June 2025 budget recorded a surplus of over $27 billion, the first monthly surplus since 2017. Economists had expected a deficit of $41.5 billion for the month. A key factor was the surge in customs duties, which totaled roughly $27 billion for the month...up from $23 billion in May...

That’s a $68.5 billion swing in the wrong direction for the experts.
It’s not surprising to me. Economist forecasts make for great conversation—but that’s about it.
If you choose to base your investments on their predictions, that’s your call.
I don’t.

The 1/5/99 event might want to come with an asterisk. Dinky linky.

In the two years leading up to March 24, 2000, the S&P 500 gained 38.1%.
The Dow hit its dot-com era peak in January 2000, but the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 didn’t top out until March. The S&P 500 hit an intraday high of 1,552.87 on March 24.
Over the next two years, the S&P 500 dropped 24.8%, but it held up relatively well compared to the 62.7% drop in the Nasdaq.
Following its March 2000 peak, the S&P 500 wouldn’t make new all-time highs again until 2007. However, it fared much better than the Nasdaq, which wouldn’t surpass its dot-com bubble peak until 2015.

One might wonder, what were the signals to sell in March 2000?

According to the quote in the OP: "Now, Vanguard isn’t eliminating SpecID—but they are making it harder to use by removing it as a default option for your accounts."
This change does indeed better align Vanguard with industry standards. I wrote in my original response: :"Vanguard is a bit unusual in that it allows you to effectively select 'none' as the default method of selecting which shares you are selling. "
Brokers are required to have clients select what Fidelity calls a default "disposal method". In this way clients tell the broker the order in which to dispose of shares in a sale if the client does not specify which shares are to be sold at the time they place a trade.
If a client says that their default disposition method is specific ID, then they are effectively giving no default method to be used in lieu of specific ID. No other institution I'm aware of has allowed clients to explicitly give "specific ID" (i.e. "none") as the default disposal method.
Regarding this change affecting only some Vanguard clients: It is true that only clients that had selected "specific ID" as their default disposal method are directly affected (and I'm guessing are the ones who received email notice). Still, all clients were affected when this change took place because they became unable to change their default disposal method to "specific ID".
This change has already taken place generally. Vanguard currently writes: "[Specific identification] method is not available as a preferred cost basis method".
https://investor.vanguard.com/investor-resources-education/taxes/cost-basis-methods-available-at-vanguard
As to restricting the use of specific ID to market orders, Vanguard's FAQ addresses the rationale. Consider the following limit order to sell 300 shares @$25.00 from three specific lots and only 150 are sold:
Lot 1: 100 shares purchased on 7/1/23
Lot 2: 100 shares purchased on 7/1/24
Lot 3: 100 shares purchased on 7/1/25
The specific ID order says only that these 300 shares are to be sold. Suppose one lot is sold @25.10, then the bids over $25 dry up. A few hours later, the price recovers and the broker is able to dispose of another 50 shares at $25 even. The remaining 150 shares remain unsold.
Which shares did the broker sell at $25.10, which at $25.00? Had a market order been placed, they all would have sold at virtually the same time. (Though admittedly there could still be sold at slightly different prices - placing a market order reduces but does not eliminate the pricing problem.)
The answer to this question affects long term vs. short term cap gains and also current gains (assuming the various lots were acquired at different prices.)
Fidelity is the only place I've found that answers this question (sort of). On its help page for trading specific shares it answers this question:

What is tax lot priority?
If your order receives multiple executions, the first tax lots selected will be used to determine the gain/loss for the shares executed. The shares sorted and selected first (at the top of the list of tax lots) have the highest priority.

As to the order of the tax lots selected, the closest Q&A I can find is:

How are the lots available for trading displayed?
Since the shares you hold may have been acquired at different times and different prices you can choose to have your shares sorted by long-term shares (with a holding period of greater than one year) or short-term shares (with a holding period of one year or less). A secondary sorting option allows you to sort the shares you hold by highest or lowest cost. In addition, you can attempt to minimize your gain or loss. If you do not request a specific sort option, the tax lots will be displayed in first in, first out (FIFO) order - that is, oldest shares acquired to the newest shares acquired.

All well and good, but Vanguard's FAQ raises the question of what happens with automatic distributions (or automatic rebalancing). WIth a default disposal in place, that is the ordering applied. And as I explained above, "specific ID" is tantamount to having indicated no default method.

when the new CEO was selected, base rates for his background were not inspiring ; he made his bones based on hyperscaling ETFs for fees.
with actually zero 'technology' expertise, the more likely outcome for vanguard was same quality of service costing more, and\or cuts to functionality not serving up profits.
now IAV jumps in on a 'not-for-profit' company whose CEO likely is compensated similar (~$30m/yr) to blackrock's Fink.
IAV post 2025 july:
"Many long-term investors have built wealth using low-cost index funds. But it’s the selling of those index funds—not owning them—that’s been filling Vanguard executives’ bank accounts...
Just because Vanguard is private doesn’t mean it can’t disclose compensation details. It simply chooses not to...
For a firm that prides itself on penny-pinching and low-cost indexing, Vanguard’s leaders sure seem to be stuffing their bank accounts with a lot more than pennies."

According to M* VOO is up 6.39% YTD.
I wasn't looking for anything. Stating that the S&P 500 is up 25+% in just 3 months demands a closer look is all in the long run.

You must be missing my point here. I said that a 25% gain in a three month period is a rare historical event. A closer look? It has occurred five other times since 1950.
3/7/75
10/21/82
1/5/99
5/29/09.
6/15/2020.
After those five other times the market was up an average of 16.9% six months later and 22,3% one year later. It was never down 6 months or one year later. Streaks are meant to be broken so time will tell if this new signal will be the sixth winner since 1950. Just maybe a clue the market is going higher. The two Zweig signals ( also rare historical events) in April mentioned here were obviously a better time to have entered or added, but most here were more focused on the negative tariff headlines and not the Zweig signals.
Source Carson Research.
Edit - I see Carson Research must have updated their numbers now showing 13.8% and 21,4% six and 12 months out, The latest signal dated 7/10/25.

According to M* VOO is up 6.39% YTD.
I wasn't looking for anything. Stating that the S&P 500 is up 25+% in just 3 months demands a closer look is all in the long run.

First, the SP500 is up 7.16%, check VOO.
Second, the SP500 made 50% in 2023-4. How much more do you expect in 2025 and why 7+% isn't enough based on that?
Third, declining dollar means there is a good chance that international would make more. VXUS, VGK(Europe) made a lot more at 18+% and 24+%.
Forth, declining dollar usually means that gold would do well, all text book investing.
The chart below may show performance that could be off by a bit. If you want to be sure check several sites starting with VG and M*.
https://schrts.co/fMCQMkiq

Did Salim even bother to show up to the conference or did he just phone it in just like their website?
My son tried to add his bank account to his 529 plan few months back. Of course it doesn’t work, so have to go on a Reddit thread where they have an alternative link for a manual entry, so that takes 3-5 days. Month later he went to withdraw, but his account did not have electronic transfer, only mail by check. I did call once about stopping monthly deposits to 529 and agent did handle that quickly. Did not want to call back about the new electronic transfer issue because sounds like hours on hold and weeks to get working.
Are we sure Vanguard is not a Government agency with lowest bid contract for technology?

The Week in Charts (07/11/25)
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:49 Topics
01:58 Breaking Down the Big, Beautiful Bill
11:18 The Sky's the Limit
16:13 When Do the Chickens Come Home to Roost?
19:38 Waiting for the Cliff's Edge
21:52 From Bullion to Blockchain
24:06 The First $4 Trillion Company
28:41 Another Day, Another Tariff Threat, Another ATH
32:44 Rising Literacy Rates
Video
Blog

For the year to date SPY is up 6.41%. That it gained 25%+ on paper means nothing to me because it came on the back of a loss of -15.3% to start the year. Mix in the magic fairy dust of the tariff tantrum baby and what have we got? Big gains maybe by the insiders who knew ahead of time but the average Joe Blow investor might be up by 6.41% unless they sold. Fun with numbers right?

See this current NPR Report for a larger version of this graphic.

more (pessimistic, arguably)
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/11/opinion/dollar-money-currency-payment.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/05/opinion/weak-us-dollar.html
history:
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/opinion/happy-birthday-money.html

I’ve never invested in the S&P 500, although over the years some of my funds have held some S&P stocks. So the perceived valuation of the S&P is of little interest to me - although a lot of investors fixate on it. It is, however, of interest to me from the standpoint that if it were grossly overvalued (“nosebleed” territory) then it has the potential to crash and bring down the economy and / or a lot of non-S&P stocks along with it. So I don’t dismiss Barron’s or anyone else’s take on the S&P.
And I’m aware that in recent years there’s been more “empty” forecasts of gloom and doom for the S&P than there are likely to be empty beer cans outside a college frat party.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-tariffs-inflation-economy-stock-market-risks-1a9aa88e?st=s8sZDa&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

The prevailing exuberance—and preponderance of nosebleed valuations—hasn’t been lost on the members of the Barron’s Roundtable

I support the idea that the SP500 would not perform as well in the next 10 years as it did in the last 10 years.
Unfortunately, valuations are not a good indicator of an accurate future performance or when markets will correct.
Many times the markets go down based on other unique situations.
2008-the MBS fiasco
2020-covid
2022-Fed rapid rate hike.
Prof Shiller created PE10(P/E over 10 years) which supposed to predict performance based on valuation better than PE
On 05/2012 (the link for this article doesn't work anymore)
Question: You have become famous for your cyclically adjusted 10-year price/earnings ratio. What do the latest numbers say about future stock market returns?
Shiller: we found a correlation between that ratio and the next 10 years' return.
If you plug in today's P/E of about 22, it would be predicting something like an annualized 4% return after inflation.
FD: reality, the SP500 made about 11% after inflation in the next 10 years (04/31/2012-04/31/2022). It was much better than countries with lower PE10 such as Emerging markets.

From the Roundtable article:
The prevailing exuberance—and preponderance of nosebleed valuations—hasn’t been lost on the members of the Barron’s Roundtable, most of whom expect the stock market to stall, or even sink, in the months ahead. Prices are too rich, they say. Tariffs will stoke inflation, and economic growth may look increasingly tepid.
********************
Sonal Desai:
At the start of the year, the dollar was probably at its second-strongest level in 40 or 50 years. Then, three developments took the air out of the rally: DeepSeek, a Chinese AI company, was reported to have much lower development costs than U.S. AI companies; the Germans stepped up their spending commitment on defense; and U.S. tariffs were announced. As a result, investors took profits in their dollar positions. Profit-taking accounts for the dollar’s decline.

I'm very concerned about the potential negative consequences associated with several recent policies.
Since my portfolio allocation and investments are (mostly) satisfactory, no corresponding changes were made.
The VIX closed above 52 on 4/8/2025.
Since 1990, forward S&P 500 total returns for 1 yr., 2 yr., 3 yr., 4 yr., and 5 yr.
were always positive whenever the VIX closed above 50.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVuZH3s5QfM
Refer to the segment from 4:30 - 7:15.
@junkster
I am unfamiliar with many signals.
If you don't mind sharing, I'm curious which bullish signals were present in April.

>>>>What encourages investors to buy (add to) stocks (or bonds) at this point? Is anyone here increasing stock or bond allocations? If so, what is your rationale?<<<<
What can’t be ignored is we just had a 25%+ gain in the S@P over a three month period. A rare event that has only occurred five times since 1950. Most recently in 2020 and 2009 when things looked pretty bleak just as many think things look pretty bleak now. After those 3 month 25% gains going forward another year out all previous periods were positive with average gain of another 22%. So stay tuned. Listen to the signals not the headlines. Back in April all sorts of rare bullish signals kicked in but everyone seemed more focused on the negative headlines.

Following are excerpts from a current report in The Guardian:
Carriers also asked to stop purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from US firms, report says

China has reportedly ordered its airlines not to take any further deliveries of Boeing jets, the latest move in its tit-for-tat trade war with the US. The Chinese government has asked carriers to stop purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from American companies, according to a Bloomberg News article, which cited people familiar with the matter.
The order was reported to have come after the country raised its retaliatory tariffs on US goods to 125% on Friday in response to Donald Trump’s levies on Chinese imports totaling 145%. Beijing was also said to be considering ways to support airlines that lease Boeing jets and are facing higher costs.
About 10 Boeing 737 Max jets are being prepared to join Chinese airlines, and if delivery paperwork and payment on some of them were completed before Chinese ”reciprocal” tariffs came into effect, the planes may be allowed to enter the country, sources told Bloomberg.
The restriction marks a serious blow for Boeing and other manufacturers trying to navigate the escalating trade war between the world’s two biggest economies.
The group chief executive of the budget airline Ryanair, Michael O’Leary, has said his company could delay taking deliveries of Boeing aircraft if they become more expensive. He told the Financial Times that Ryanair was due to receive a further 25 aircraft from Boeing from August but would not need the planes until around March or April 2026. “We might delay them and hope that common sense will prevail,” O’Leary said.
Shares in Boeing have been buffeted by worries about the impact of trade tariffs, as well as complaints from some shareholders that the company has underinvested in its engineering. The company has lost 7% of its market value since the start of the year, and in March its chief financial officer, Brian West, said tariffs could hit availability of parts from its suppliers.
The rival European plane manufacturer Airbus said on Tuesday that it was watching the evolving situation on trade tariffs. Its chief executive, Guillaume Faury, told shareholders the company was having problems receiving components from the American supplier Spirit AeroSystems, which was weighing on the production of its A350 and A220 jetliners.
Boeing was approached for comment.

Comment: Boeing has lost 7% of its market value since the start of the year, with potentially a lot worse to follow. @FD1000 notwithstanding, C

quote

Boeing has lost 7% of its market value since the start of the year, with potentially a lot worse to follow. @FD1000 notwithstanding

It was a "great" call.
Let's see what happened since the above on April 21. Boeing went up 42+%.
https://schrts.co/udiZpgWf

https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/who-we-are/pressroom/press-release-vanguard-launches-three-new-etfs-focused-on-us-government-bonds-070925.html
Vanguard Government Securities Active ETF (VGVT), an actively managed ETF, and two index ETFs, Vanguard Total Treasury ETF (VTG) and Vanguard Total Inflation-Protected Securities ETF (VTP)