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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Falling Angels? (Crisis In The Bond Markets)
    This is a mostly visual look at the unfolding crisis the bond markets and how we got here. Here are a few excerpts from the narrative. The visuals are worth looking at:
    More than half of corporate bonds are classified by ratings agencies as risky, known as junk. An additional 30% are hovering one notch above.
    ...the U.S. Federal Reserve has pledged trillions of dollars to keep cash in the credit markets flowing. That support, however, is only available to companies with investment-grade debt.
    About 51% of investment-grade corporate bonds globally were rated just above junk last year...a shock to the economy could set off a wave of downgrades, which would push a large and growing number of companies into junk territory.
    When bonds become junk, many investment funds are contractually obligated to sell them. Forced sales can set off negative cycles. Some investors expect the Fed and the U.S. Treasury - whose job it is to work together to keep the U.S. economy on a steady footing - to reach further down the ratings ladder to help non-investment grade companies. At present, it has no plans to extend its safety net to junk.
    As a result of the economic shutdown, and not factoring in any help from the Fed, the most pessimistic estimates by Moody’s project that corporate junk bond defaults will rise to more than 20% by next year.
    https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS/CORPBONDS/qmyvmgylvra/index.html
  • M* Fund Spy: Primecap Can Ride Out Its Airline Stocks' Turbulence
    Note again - this article reflects holdings as of year end 2019. We as shareholders have no idea what these funds hold today nor will we until the first of June, 2020 at best AND even then those holdings data will be stale as well.
  • M* Are Bond Funds 'Broken' as Diversifiers?
    YTD in my IRA: FIPDX +3.47, FNSOX +2.38, TSBRX -.65, DODIX -.91, DBLSX -4.6, and BILDX -7.3.
    In my taxable: AZTYX -2.37, VWLUX -3.56, DMBIX -4.03, and VWALX -6.13.
    Wife's IRA, which is at a different place than mine: VAIPX +3.36, VFIJX +3.30, VSGDX + 2.42, FTHRX +.41, and PYSBX -1.96
    Not a picnic. But not a catastrophe. So far.
    I sure wasn't expecting any action from the TIPS funds.
  • M* Fund Spy: Primecap Can Ride Out Its Airline Stocks' Turbulence
    "The coronavirus’ economic fallout has hit investors in airline stocks especially hard, perhaps none more so than Pasadena-based Primecap Management Company. At year-end 2019, Primecap firmwide owned 14% to 16% of the shares outstanding in three different airlines and stakes in nine other air carriers. As Exhibit 1 shows, shares of each of these airlines shed between 40.7% and 76.1% during the depths of this still-unfolding bear market (Feb. 20, 2020, to March 23, 2020), versus a 33.8% drop for the S&P 500 index."
    All 6 Primecap funds are exposed
  • S&P 500 Stocks Hanging By A Thread As Macy’s Is Booted Off
    https://www.gurufocus.com/news/1094700/sp-500-stocks-hanging-by-a-thread-as-macys-is-booted-off
    /S&P 500 Stocks Hanging By A Thread As Macy’s Is Booted Off
    S&P Global Indices disclosed on April 1 that department store retail giant Macy’s (NYSE:M) “will be removed from the S&P 500 effective prior to the open of trading on Monday, April 6.” The company will be moved to the S&P 600 SmallCap Index instead, and it will be replaced by Carrier Global Corp. (NYSE:CARRW), an air conditioning company being spun off of United Technologies (UTX). According to S&P Global Indices, Macy’s no longer belongs on the S&P 500 because of its low market cap and low growth expectations./
    Unbelievable. One of America's great brand name would no longer be in sp500
  • U.S. High-Yield Bond Funds See Record Inflow After Exodus
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-02/u-s-high-yield-bond-funds-see-record-inflow-of-7-09-billion
    /U.S. High-Yield Bond Funds See Record Inflow After Exodus
    GOLDMAN SACHS GP
    149.93USD+4.64+3.19%
    IVZ
    INVESCO LTD
    8.22USD+0.21+2.62%
    TDG
    TRANSDIGM GROUP
    284.47USD+11.93+4.38%
    Investors poured a record amount of cash into U.S. high-yield funds this week as the junk-bond market recovered from its worst slump in more than a decade.
    The funds added $7.09 billion in the week ended Wednesday, according to data from Refinitiv Lipper. This reversed a course that had seen almost $20 billion withdrawn from those same funds over the last six sessions, including $2 billion last week.
    ‘Tremendous Opportunity’
    As U.S. junk bonds started to find a floor, investors including Goldman Sachs and Invesco are seeing reasons to buy.
    “There are tremendous opportunities out there,” said Ashish Shah, co-chief investment officer of fixed income at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. He estimates junk bonds will return about 20% this year as growth rebounds in the fourth quarter and fallen angels outperform.
    High-yield lost 11.5% last month and is down 13.6% this year. The market fell almost 16% in October 2008. Last year’s total return was 14.3% and high-yield hasn’t been up more than 20% since 2009, when it surged 58%./
    Article discussed positives movements in junk bonds areas past few days. Maybe time to reconsider adding to corp junk bond positions. The curve may appears revived for junks past wk or so. Will it remains stable over next month?...who knows
    https://www.google.com/search?q=jnk+stock
  • Towle Deep Value Fund to reopen to new investors
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318342/000139834420007430/fp0052470_497.htm
    497 1 fp0052470_497.htm
    Towle Deep Value Fund
    (Ticker Symbol: TDVFX)
    A series of Investment Managers Series Trust
    Supplement dated April 3, 2020 to the
    Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information,
    both dated February 1, 2020, as supplemented,
    and the Summary Prospectus dated February 3, 2020 as supplemented.
    IMPORTANT NOTICE ON PURCHASE OF FUND SHARES
    Effective as April 6, 2020, the Towle Deep Value Fund is publicly offered to new investors.
    Please file this Supplement with your records.
  • Oil crash poses severe test for OPEC+ after Moscow, Riyadh miscalculate
    Trump announced that he has word from Russia and Saudi Arabia that they will make large cuts in production. Maybe, maybe not -- he's made pronouncements in the past. But oil stocks predictably jumped up: Chevron up 11% today, Exxon 8.4%.
    If I were a suspicious person, I'd wonder who might have known what he would say.
    Of course, he knew.
    David
  • Oil crash poses severe test for OPEC+ after Moscow, Riyadh miscalculate
    This is a useful overview of the current state of the oil market and the prospects for production cutbacks...
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-crash-poses-severe-test-190309992.html
  • FMIJX = OUCHX
    I know little to nothing about this fund but looking at the holdings Equity/Other as @LewisBraham noted you will see a significant dollar amount of currency hedges primarily the large allocation ($1.9B) to the British Pound. I wonder if they got caught leaning the wrong way on one or all of these. I won't even attempt to analyze this as it's totally out of my ballpark and I have no clue what game they are even playing.
    USD/GBP
    Edit to add: I guess I should have noted that the holdings were dated as of December 31, 2019 so my comments are more useless than normal. Who knows what they may be holding now.
  • transferring shares of closed funds to different accounts
    Just got confirmation from Schwab that 1 share of PRWCX will be transferred into my account from outside account on 4/8.
  • The Selling Has Been Merciless ...
    @MikeW ... Thank you for your question on how I'm fairing. I am much in line with my conersative asset allocation funds which make up better than 25% of my overall portfolio. My best performer year to date in my hybrid income sleeve is CTFAX -1.72% while the worst one is FRINX -28.62%. Overall, this sleeve is down ytd a little under 15% and overall my portfolio as a whole bubbles being down a little above the 15% mark. So, I am running a pretty close to my conserative asset allocation funds which hold 30% to 50% equity.
    The income yield on my portfolio is a little shy of 4% with capital gain distributions factored in the distribution yield moves north of 5%. With this, I plan to keep buying with my portfolio's income gerneration while things are on sale. My current asset allocation is 15% cash, 40% income and 45% equity.
  • The Selling Has Been Merciless ...
    @Old_Skeet. At least I will never criticize you for holding "too many funds". Frankly, nobody's business.
    I manage independent portfolios with different goals/intents with different brokerages which also have different funds NTF. At any given point in time I probably own 70 - 80 different funds across several brokerages, then my IRAs, 401ks (1 for me, 1 for wife), plus a very small number of funds I own direct. I really don't see why I have to use the SAME funds in all portfolios. First off, hard to keep track, second may not be available.
    I own only ONE fund in taxable and IRA. Its FMIJX, absolutely wrong fund to have in both places as it turns out.
  • The futures of the indices are up
    Market's been especially irrational
    @Crash, That is a good one. How about investors being irrational ? Case in point, several months ago @Catch22 posted a topic "Charles Bolin, MFO commentator. Funds that do well; with falling $/rising inflation write" and a new poster, Simon, who disagree with Mr. Bolin's viewpoints and among other thing. I quote his reply
    Simon
    January 13 Flag
    I fundamentally disagree with a lot of Charles's viewpoints (for example he believes the economy is in the "latter stages of an expansion" whereas I think the exact opposite is true) but his articles are some of the finest on the web and I always read them. As Catch said - remain curious about life. Thank you Charles.
    There were few more unpleasant exchanges between Simon and several experienced MFO posters here. He promptly disappeared from this board. Question is who is rational or irrational if his perspective is on? I ran across Charles Bolin articles awhile back in Seeking Alpha and I found his articles are well articulated and supported with data. Mr. Bolin also contributes to our monthly Commentary. I will repost my earlier posting to @Charles on Escape Plan and it listed several very informative articles from Charles Bolin (Seeking Alpha) on risk and current market condition.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/123803/#Comment_123803
    Several low risk portfolio models were posted in his latest article in Seeking Alpha, the loss was modest, -11% as of March 21st which is excellent in light of what is happening today with S&P500 loss at >30%.
  • The Selling Has Been Merciless ...
    @VF - not a whole lot prettier, currently (-30.01%), at the 52-wk low (-40.5%)
    Real Estate Sector
  • Manager insights: Bulls, bears, and bond markets

    From Emily Shanks in the article:
    "However, the market is pricing in the probability that more than 10% of single-A-rated corporate debt would be downgraded to triple-B, and more than 10% of triple-B corporate credit would be downgraded to double-B or to high-yield status."
    This aspect of the bond market, as well as other areas discussed in the article have been chatted about here; too the extent that BBB ratings (pre-melt) for corps. were already considered "good" junk status, at best.
    Be safe.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • The Selling Has Been Merciless ...
    @charles, things happen but you will be a better investor in the future. Perhaps your portfolio is down today but time will allow it to fully recover, perhaps a year or two. Mine did during 2008 and I was scare as hell. Unless you are in total cash at the market peak as of Feb 19th, everyone is down to various degrees if they hold any stocks. So you are in good company with rest of us. Remember that market timing seldom work since you have to be right twice in a row, and the probability is low (at least for me). So cheer up. You have many great posters here.
  • The Selling Has Been Merciless ...
    Really brutal. That's what happens after 11 years of bull market returns. Never want to get complacent again! c
  • The Selling Has Been Merciless ...
    @VF - The article mentioned one, "An investor who bought MFA financial five years ago was up 70% as of February 20th. Now they’re down 73%. It went from $8 to $1.28 in 28 days. Unbelievable move."
    Others include NRZ (-68.9%), TWO (-73.9%), LADR (-73.7%), WMC (-77.8%) and ABR (-65.9%). In addition there are several more with YTD losses of between -50 to -60%.