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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Infinite QE Is Destroying Traditional Bond-Fund Strategies
    Interesting reading. Themes include low interest rates for now, inflation possible down the road, cash is king, and lack of clear historical context for current situation.
    Core tenets such as what constitutes a safe asset, the value of bonds as a portfolio hedge, and expectations for returns over the next decade are all being reconsidered as governments and central banks strive to avert a global depression.
    QE Kills Valuation Models -- Ordinarily, the prospect of a multi-trillion-dollar government spending surge globally ought to send borrowing costs soaring. But central bank purchases are now reshaping rates markets -- emulating the Bank of Japan’s yield-curve control policy starting in 2016 -- and quashing these latest volatility spikes.
    Inflation Risk -- Many market veterans agree that faster inflation may return in a recovery awash with stimulus that central banks and governments may find tough to withdraw...“There’s tension in all of this,” said Hamish Pepper, fixed-income and currency strategist at Harbour Asset Management Ltd. in Wellington, New Zealand. “I don’t think it’s necessarily about waking up one morning realizing that bond yields should be 100 basis points higher from here -- but you have to think about inflation at some point.”
    Haven or Not? -- “Will government bonds play the same role in your portfolio going forward as they have in the past?” he said. “To me the answer is no they don’t -- I’d rather own cash.”
    “It’s very hard to look at this in a historical context and then apply an investment framework around it,” said BlackRock’s Thiel. “The most applicable period is right before America entered WW2, when you had gigantic stimulus to spur the war effort. I mean, Ford made bombers in WW2 and now they’re making ventilators in 2020.”
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/infinite-qe-destroying-traditional-bond-174459945.html
  • Massive Carnage In The CEF Space
    Summary
    ° All high yield assets have been crushed in this market - in some cases worse than equities.
    ° The declines in price and NAV of most CEFs have been nothing short of massive. Investors are selling anything and everything.
    ° This is all liquidity driven declines. What we are seeing are the pitfalls of a daily liquidity "wrapper" holding illiquid securities.
    ° It is still far too early to think about jumping in en masse and reloading up portfolios with leveraged CEFs. That said, we have a shopping list ready to go.
    ° We are in a 1% interest rate environment. Anything yielding in excess of that level has some assumption of risk. You must accept that risk if you want to produce.
    SA Article Continues
  • Edward P. Bousa of Wellington Fund to retire
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/105563/000168386320001038/f2772d1.htm
    497 1 f2772d1.htm WELLINGTON FUND 497
    Vanguard Wellington™ Fund
    Supplement Dated March 27, 2020 to the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus Dated March 27, 2020
    Important Change to Vanguard Wellington Fund
    Effective at the close of business on June 30, 2020, Edward P. Bousa will retire from Wellington Management Company LLP and will no longer serve as a portfolio manager for Vanguard Wellington Fund.
    Loren L. Moran, Daniel J. Pozen, and Michael E. Stack, who currently serve as portfolio managers with Mr. Bousa, will remain as portfolio managers of the Fund upon Mr. Bousa's retirement. The Fund's investment objective, strategies, and policies will remain unchanged.
  • Recapturing Portfolio Loss

    I've been buying into the falling knives, but the losses are .... okay for the moment. Doing little if any selling, because I rarely sell into a down market.
    On some existing stock positions I've put on combo positions using options to hopefully accellerate the recovery. To wit: My cost basis on a large long-term position in EPD is in the mid-20s. When it was down around 10 the other week I sold a double-batch of the 10 puts and bought the same number of 13 calls, all of which expire in 2022 ... plenty of time for a recovery. And if not, I'm happy to have the stock put to me at 10 or less. (With the market these past few days, they've already almost halved the losses on that position already, btw.)
  • If today's gains hold up....
    Totally agree. What @davidmoran described resembles the 2004 tsunami in Indonesia. Can't located the footage showed on CNN that go something like this: an earthquake occurred out in the Pacific Ocean and people were running into the exposed beach as the ocean pulled back. Then the outer waves grew taller and taller as they moved inland quickly and continued to surge. Boats, cars, and houses were tossed around like toys. The sound of people were indescribable.
    Here is one video that showed the carnage resulting from the tsunami in Thailand.
    https://bing.com/videos/search?q=tsunami+indonesia+youtube&&view=detail&mid=A3A63753C8C7FF817A0CA3A63753C8C7FF817A0C&&FORM=VRDGAR&ru=%2Fvideos%2Fsearch%3Fq%3Dtsunami%2Bindonesia%2Byoutube%26qs%3DMM%26form%3DQBVR%26sp%3D7%26pq%3Dtsunami%2Bindonesia%2B%26sk%3DHS1MM5%26sc%3D8-18%26cvid%3D1B1D0441DBF3432DB7A12BAE798AD205
    The impact of this global virus crisis, termed by Ed Yardeni is far from over and likely to last for awhile before recovery.
    Just imagine those people who went into the exposed beach as the ocean pulled back.
  • Best websites for tracking portfolios?
    The advantage to M*, when it worked, is that I could track and compare fund returns YTD, and 1,3,5,10 and 15 years. I don’t see how I could do that using a spreadsheet. M* also allows you to customize portfolio views so that it displays yields, expense ratios, standard deviations and other factors. My problem isn’t with their portfolio function, per se, but the fact that the site won’t let me stay logged in. It’s crazy. I utilize dozens of websites that don’t have an issue keeping users logged in, only M*
  • When to start buying
    Hi guys.
    From the closing low on the S&P 500 Index at 2237 on 3/23 I have the Index up through today's market close of 2630 at 17.5%. Since, I bought at the 8, 13, 19, 26, 28 & 26 percent decline marks my average buy computes to 20% off the Index's 52 week high at about 2710. This is the point that I will go green on my packaged buys; however, as I write, I currently have three buy steps in the green (26% down, 28% down & then 26% moving back upwards). For now, I'm on hold going forward with nearterm equity buys as there is no longer an open to buy on the equity side of my portfolio as I'm at a near full allocation.
    However, I might do a little nearterm buying on the income side of my portfolio. Fixed income has taken a beating of late and with my open to buy now on the fixed income side of my portfolio ... it says ... its time to shop.
    Take care ... and, I wish all "Good Investing."
  • Money Market Funds
    @Mona- Thanks for that- it's very similar to the Schwab layout. I need a list that is able to include funds from Schwab, American Funds, and American Century, and no mutual fund company is going to provide that kind of info for competing fund companies. M* does, but it's getting increasingly flaky to use.
    With respect to the SWKXX NAV, Schwab only shows the $1 share price, and not the actual internal accounting value that msf found.
  • If today's gains hold up....
    +21% up on 3 days, fastest recovery/fastest recession [only lasting 17days]. Any chance double dip?
    Interesting read -where stocks go from here
    https://www.thestreet.com/investing/where-to-stocks-go-from-here-prior-correlations-provide-a-playbook?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo
  • Money Market Funds
    @msf- Could you do me a favor and explain how you obtained that "Its NAV has dropped in the past week from $1.0002 to $0.9987" info? I looked around the Schwab site but couldn't find any NAV info at all.
    Thanks- OJ
  • RMB Mendon Financial Long/Short Fund to be reorganized
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/30126/000089418920002257/rmbmendonreorganization497.htm
    497 1 rmbmendonreorganization497.htm RMB MENDON 497E
    RMB Mendon Financial Long/Short Fund
    Class A Ticker RMBFX
    Class C Ticker RMBCX
    Class I Ticker RMBIX
    Supplement dated March 26, 2020 to the
    Statutory Prospectus and Summary Prospectus dated May 1, 2019
    IMPORTANT NOTICE REGARDING FUND REORGANIZATION
    At a special meeting of the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of RMB Investors Trust (the “Trust”) held on March 25, 2020, RMB Capital Management, LLC (“RMB”) proposed, and the Board approved, the reorganization of the RMB Mendon Financial Long/Short Fund (the “Financial Long/Short Fund”), a series of the Trust, into the RMB Mendon Financial Services Fund (the “Financial Services Fund”), also a series of the Trust (the “Reorganization”) (each, a “Fund” and together, the “Funds”). In making its decision, the Board considered the recommendation of RMB, the Funds’ investment advisor, that the Reorganization has the potential to benefit shareholders of both Funds through increased efficiencies leading to lower Fund operating expenses borne by shareholders.
    Pursuant to an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization, the Financial Long/Short Fund will transfer all of its assets and liabilities to the Financial Services Fund and Class A, Class C and Class I shareholders of the Financial Long/Short Fund will receive the same class of shares of the Financial Services Fund that are equal in value to their shares of the Financial Long/Short Fund that they held immediately prior to the closing of the Reorganization (although the number of shares and the net asset value per share may be different). Upon receipt of the Financial Services Fund shares, the shares of the Financial Long/Short Fund will be null and void. Shareholders of the Financial Long/Short Fund will not pay any sales load, commission, or other similar fee in connection with the Financial Services Fund shares received in the Reorganization. Expenses associated with the Reorganization will be borne by the Funds to the extent of a Fund’s estimated operating expense reduction during the first year following completion of the Reorganization.
    It is currently anticipated that the Reorganization will be completed as of the close of business on or about June 12, 2020. It is also intended that the Reorganization will qualify as a tax-free reorganization under the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended, which means that generally no gain or loss will be recognized for federal income tax purposes by the Financial Long/Short Fund or its shareholders as a direct result of the Reorganization. However, prior to completion of the Reorganization, the Financial Long/Short Fund may make net investment income and capital gains distributions to shareholders. Shareholders of the Financial Long/Short Fund should consult their tax advisors regarding the effect of the Reorganization and income and capital gains distributions on their particular tax situation.
    Shareholders of the Financial Long/Short Fund will receive an Information Statement/Prospectus that describes the Reorganization in greater detail, as well as important information about the Financial Services Fund. The Board determined that the Reorganization does not require approval by the Funds’ shareholders.
    Please retain this Supplement with the Statutory Prospectus and the
    Summary Prospectus.
  • Best websites for tracking portfolios?
    @MikeM and @sma3 - Thanks for your input. I do need a breakdown to the individual fund level, and your confirmation re unavailability @ Schwab is helpful. I find the "total asset" lists that you can construct at Schwab and many other places to be worrisome in this day of hacks almost everywhere. The possibility of some entity knowing where every dollar of our reserves is located scares the hell out of me, to be honest.
    While our "portfolio" at M* does list every fund that we own, each is shown as only $1. I don't need M* or anyone else to do the calculations, so they have no need to know the actual number of shares held. All I need is the current NAV.
  • Money Market Funds
    msf, could Vanguard prop up or support (I am not certain what this mean) VMSXX so that it does not deviate by more than a cent from $1.00, thus not have the need to re-price its shares to something other than $1.00 (breaking the buck), resulting in no loss of money by the investors?
    In the GFC, there were many families propping up their MMFs. Two reasons why the Reserve Fund broke a buck were that (a) it invested for highest yield and virtually disregarded safety, and (b) unlike Vanguard, Fidelity, etc., The Reserve did not have deep pockets. Its main business was money market funds and similar offerings.
    I don't know if or how the regulations have changed since then that might prohibit Vanguard from supporting its funds.
  • Money Market Funds
    @Sven - Just that the muni bond market is in chaos. Keeping in mind that average maturities of MMFs tend to run in the 60 day range, we have this from Bloomberg (via Yahoo):
    Take a note issued by New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority that’s due in about two months. It traded among securities dealers at yields as high as 11.2% on Friday and hit 90% the day before that -- an unheard of payout for securities that not long ago yielded 0.6%
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wreckage-muni-market-crash-brave-152948684.html
    Fill a MMF with bonds like this, and 4.05% will seem low!
    MTA bonds I believe are A or AA rated. They could have taken a nosedive because the New York MTA is projecting massive deficits ($6.5B) by year end, due to drop in ridership. It is cutting service service by 25%.
    https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/mta-loses-125m-week-amid-coronavirus-outbreak-chairman-says
    Indicating a flight to quality, VMFXX has a much lower yield than VMMXX (prime), which is now at 1.29%. That at least seems sane.
  • Best websites for tracking portfolios?
    @Old_Joe, not sure if this is what you want, but you can link external accounts to Schwab so that the holdings show up in the Schwab account summary. I have my TRP 401k funds listed in my Schwab account summary.
    I have not seen that you can view a portfolio breakdown of all those assets though. I'd love to have that.
  • Money Market Funds
    msf, could Vanguard prop up or support (I am not certain what this mean) VMSXX so that it does not deviate by more than a cent from $1.00, thus not have the need to re-price its shares to something other than $1.00 (breaking the buck), resulting in no loss of money by the investors?
    Mona
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    As of this moment my position constitutes about 1.5% of my total portfolio roughly the same as 2 weeks ago. I can allow myself to ride along for awhile. Here is where confidence in one's active managers comes into play and where Bob C would usually say "I don't think they started taking stupid pills."
  • ? DSENX-DSEEX a little help please if you can
    I don't know how it does it, @davidmoran. What you found above about the nature of ETNs is true. The note (N) is only as good as its issuer, Barclay's. If this bank were to tank, the note could have no value. Barclay's currently has 6 ETNs, as profiled in the link below.
    http://etn.barclays.com/US/7/en/instruments.app?statusId=4,5
    I think they are quite honest in stating the risk of losses. I looked at a 1-month chart of DSENX and CAPE on Yahoo and found the former was down -29.46%, while the latter declined -17.93%. CAPE's performance for this period is almost exactly the same as SPY. My bad is owning more of the MF than the ETN. It would take some time for me to figure out my total return in several different positions, with different purchase and sell dates.
  • Best websites for tracking portfolios?
    Schwab of course provides a daily posting of all Schwab-held assets. But only about 1/3 of our stuff is held at Schwab. I need a listing where I can get the daily NAV of funds held at Schwab, American Funds, and American Century, all aggregated into one list that can be copies and pasted into the spreadsheet. I'll certainly take a look at "Tools" at Schwab to see if there's something there that I've missed. Thanks for the suggestions.