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Those pining for a bottom to the gut-wrenching stock market selloff may be disappointed to learn that mega one-day rallies like the historic one witnessed on Tuesday are typically not the start of a durable recovery.
Going by history, those looking to time the end of the bear market should be more encouraged by days when investors take modest bites at risky assets rather than great big mouthfuls.
RPHYX is supposed to offer a more steady ride, not outperform over mid- to long-term. In that, it has succeeded.
In this crash, it [RPHYX] has underperformed both vanilla bond funds like MWTRX and Vanguard's bond index fund, VBMFX ...
It was supposed to offer minimal downside. As it turns out, in this stress situation, it has offered more downside than a total bond market index fund ...
https://fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/markets-sectors/stock-market-drops-2020Key takeaways
The big questions are when will the growth rate of new COVID-19 cases peak and will the fiscal and monetary policy response be enough?
The significant drop in the stock market has been made significantly worse by the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, as well as forced deleveraging and a soaring dollar.
Earnings estimates for the next few quarters tumbled last week, and will likely fall further in the coming weeks.
While further US stock market declines are quite possible or even likely, my technical work suggests that the momentum of this decline may diminish in the weeks ahead.
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