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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Treasury vs Non-Treasury MM funds
    By definition, prime MMFs are not exclusively invested in federal government securities, let alone treasuries. This is why the SEC instituted regulations on prime MMFs that require them to impose redemption fees and/or restrict redemptions when they have liquidity issues.
    To both avoid those restrictions and to make sure that your MMF owns only government securities, buy a "government MMF". For the most safety, buy a MMF that by prospectus says that it invests substantially all of its money in Treasuries.
    VUSXX comes close. Its prospectus reads:
    Under normal circumstances, at least 80% of the Fund’s assets will be invested in U.S. Treasury securities; the remainder of the assets may be invested in securities issued by U.S. governmental agencies.
    For 100% in treasuries, FDLXX's prospectus reads: "Normally investing at least 99.5% of total assets in cash and U.S. Treasury securities."
    Fidelity also offers FZFXX. That isn't really a Treasury fund despite its name, because it can invest any amount in repurchase agreements. Those don't have the same Treasury protection, nor are they state tax exempt (at least as of a 1994 Supreme Court ruling). Only 30% of its income last year was state exempt, meaning the rest wasn't in Treasuries.
  • Fall out from covid-19
    FWIW...my brother is a pulmonary specialist at a large hospital in a very large Midwestern city. Spoke to him yesterday. They are have not and are not seeing any noticeable increase in patients with respiratory issues to date. They are expecting to do so and are preparing. Just started testing for Covid-19 last week. Let's all hope that everyone heeds the advice of the CDC and does their utmost best to follow their instructions so we can beat this virus into submission.
    On another note and maybe slightly off topic but in the same genre as utilities. American Water (AWK). Maintains and operates water and wastewater systems in the USA. Buys out municipal controlled water systems as the local muni's want to get out from the pension liabilities and/or can't afford to operate/maintain the systems. Likely the most recession "resistant" company stock you can buy in today's world? I would think that data center REITs might be a good are to look as well? The problem I am having in terms of mutual funds is that most energy/infrastucture funds hold energy companies as well and I can see those getting hammered due to lower energy usage by mfg orgs as described in the commentary noted by others. Maybe Reaves (RSRFX)?
    (full disclosure: I own AWK stock)
    FWIW, for entertainment purposes only, take of you and yours, everyone stay healthy
    Baseball Fan
  • TARP , TALF , QE - Infinity , what will be plan neXt , as in "X"
    Really short on time this AM, a bit sloppy for this post.
    TARP and TALF were the monetary back stops for the 2008 market melt, the last chance at the time. Aside from the state of the equity side of life and the focus there; the forgotten parts regular investors don't think about much; is the health of the "other" monetary areas of the economy. There are the every day, don't pay much attention to; large institution that are important in many aspects of everyday life; being large insurance companies and pension funds.
    One example: As a result of the 2008 market melt, Lincoln Financial Group purchased a small S & L in order to qualify for a bail out package. The organization was at the edge of collapse.
    More on this and a few links are at this April, 2017 MFO page.
    The below Fed Act is a broad search, so you'll have to pick and choose by newest date for likely best review; if you have interest in this.
    Federal Reserve Act, Sect. 13(3)
    CNBC article
    Overview, IMHO: Gonna have to be a pile of fiscal action via Congress, aside from whatever is "legal" from the Treasury or Fed. Reserve.
    Will repeat, Treasury check to the adults; and $2 Trillion other money; as a start
    Hey, what do you think???
    Take care of you and yours,
    Catch
  • Fall out from covid-19
    The US does have more ICU beds per capita than other countries as the graphic shows. A Johns Hopkins page provides similar data.
    That's certainly one measure of preparedness. But it's just one of many and IMHO underscores how the US healthcare forces are underprepared and poorly utilized compared with other countries. The Johns Hopkins page notes that the limiting factor on ventilator therapy is not the amount of hardware available but the number of medical professionals in the field.
    Under normal circumstances, a country having a greater reserve capacity as measured per capita means that it is more likely to be able to handle a surge in medical needs without suffering additional deaths. But in extraordinary circumstances, a surge can far exceed capacity.
    The number of additional deaths is then determined primarily by the spillover of the surge, not by the comparatively small number of ICU beds available. This is why the critical factor is not the number of ICU beds per capita but how well a country spreads out the surge, i.e. "flattening" it by early intensive government intervention.
    It's not just ICU beds and ventilators that are needed. It's a whole infrastructure - health care professionals, hospital beds in toto (where the US lags far behind per capita), it's an integrated healthcare system (e.g. Taiwan is able to ration masks to ensure availability), and so on.
    The US is very good at spending money on the most expensive equipment and drugs. Not so good at allocating resources where they can do the most good for the most people.
    It provides the best medical care money can buy, even if that best care is bought from other countries.
  • Time for Plan B?
    Hank, I’ve already been converting my 401K to my Roth IRA in blocks each year, at a rate that keeps us from bumping to a higher tax bracket. My question really concerns SS, since we will unavoidably jump to the 22% bracket once I start drawing it. We’ve been planning to delay my SS as long as possible as a sort of longevity insurance, however, my family doesn’t have a history of long lifespans, so that might be unnecessary.
  • Overseas market brief news _Some share markets rebound after US plunge, but concerns linger
    https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/share-markets-rebound-plunge-concerns-linger-200317082608323.html
    Some share markets rebound after US plunge, but concerns linger
    Some investors say they are selling everything, including gold, to raise cash as coronavirus spreads.
  • multiple hedge funds lost during outbreaks
    https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/hedge-fund-and-insider-trading-news-ricky-sandler-anthony-scaramucci-ray-dalio-lansdowne-partners-raymond-james-financial-inc-rjf-chimerix-inc-cmrx-and-more-819926/
    Hedge Fund and Insider Trading News: Ricky Sandler, Anthony Scaramucci, Ray Dalio, Lansdowne Partners, Raymond James Financial, Inc. (RJF), Chimerix Inc (CMRX), lost during outbreaks
    Totally Understandable,’ Scaramucci Says (CNBC)
    It’s “totally understandable” why U.S. stock futures plunged after the Federal Reserve’s latest moves to counter the economic hit from the coronavirus outbreak, said Anthony Scaramucci, a hedge fund investor who briefly served as President Donald Trump’s White House communications chief. “The reason why markets are selling off right now is we have a ton of information about the virus, but a very, very little amount of understanding,” Scaramucci, founder and co-managing partner of Skybridge Capital, told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” on Monday
  • Covid19 stock crash - Should you buy bonds right now
    https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/03/16/coronavirus-crash-should-you-buy-bonds-right-now.aspx
    /The COVID-19 outbreak has thrown global stock markets for a loop, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES:^DJI) down almost 30% from their recent highs. Those with stock-heavy portfolios are scared to look at their brokerage statements because of the losses they've likely endured./
    Imho maybe best have diversed portfolio in these market conditions because difficult find bottoms and stocks may have rebounds massive upswing days/folks sitting too much bonds may miss those boats
  • Stocks Are Plunging -- Here's What You Need to Know
    Hi guys, Old_Skeet is thinking of reducing my cash allocation area from 20% to 15% and raise my income area from 40% to 42% and my equity area from 40% to 43%. Seems muni's have taken a beating of late and I'll buy a little there plus continue to buy on the equity side mostly in my equity income sleeve. And, so it goes. Take care. Old_Skeet
  • Now The Time To Buy Energy Stocks?
    https://www.gurufocus.com/news/1069611/is-now-the-time-to-buy-energy-stocks
    /Now The Time To Buy Energy Stocks?
    The price war has energy stocks plummeting, but that may not mean value buys are ahead/
    Energy so cheap...maybe reasonable to start nibbling
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    The barometer will be moving to the other investment category from off topic. So, in the future start looking for it in the other investment category going forward.
    Yesterday, Old_Skeet just watched. I'm thinking of buying should the Index reach a 32%/33% decline mark. In addition, yesterday my income area got hit pretty hard so it is starting to look attractive as well for some nearterm buying activity. Still sitting on a sizeable cash position but may reduce down to about the 15% level soon.
    By the way ... The barometer is pegged on the high side at 180+.
    Take care ...
  • Fall out from covid-19
    Interesting thoughts. I assume the big investment banks use models of this sort. I know Goldman Sachs has recently predicted a significant drop in GDP - from the attached:
    “ The coronavirus pandemic will drag the US into a recession after a sharp decline to economic activity through the first half of the year, Goldman Sachs said Sunday.
    GDP growth will slow to a halt in the first quarter before shrinking 5% in the second quarter, the bank's analysts wrote.”
    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/economic-recession-forecast-coronavirus-fuel-us-gdp-contraction-market-goldman-2020-3-1028999426
  • Sell US dollar?... markets bottoming soon??!
    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/morgan-stanley-says-markets-bottoming-022115915.html
    Morgan Stanley Says Markets Are Bottoming So Sell U.S. Dollar
    (Bloomberg) -- Global financial markets are now in a bottoming phase, and investors should start to add risk and sell the U.S. dollar, according to Morgan Stanley.
  • Don’t look at your 401(k)
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-look-at-your-401k-2020-03-16
    /Don’t look at your 401(k)
    Published: March 16, 2020 at 9:51 a.m. ET
    By Brett Arends
    Yes, it’s down now — but that won’t matter when you retire/
    Best advice heard all day
    Along with getting few kegs Heineken
  • Very Safe Blue Chips To Buy During This Bear Market
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4332110-15-safe-blue-chips-to-buy-during-this-bear-market
    ry Safe Blue Chips To Buy During This Bear Market
    CFR, UMBF, ADM, CAT, GD, PH, CNI, GWW, MDT, SWK, TJX, ROST, CB, ADP and APD
    The bear market so many have long feared is here. Stocks didn't just enter a bear market last week, they crashed into one with gusto.
    COVID-19 panic, combined with worst oil crash since the Financial Crisis, have combined to create a perfect storm of fear, literally the second highest in 30 years.
    However, regardless of when this bear market ends (and it surely will), great companies are always on sale, BUT especially when the market is panicking.
    CFR, UMBF, ADM, CAT, GD, PH, CNI, GWW, MDT, SWK, TJX, ROST, CB, ADP and APD are 15 very safe blue chips who have collectively delivered 15% CAGR returns over the last 23 years.
    From today's 25% undervaluation they could deliver about 17% CAGR long-term returns. Just don't forget to always use the right asset allocation for your needs, because when the bears roar on Wall Street, almost no stock is spared short-term pain
  • AAA longer duration bonds a bit better, U.S.T. issues, March 20, Friday PM close, watching.....
    PTIAX granted scheduled mid-month dividend. That should account for some of the .10 cent loss per share. The div was for .06 cents/share.
  • AAA longer duration bonds a bit better, U.S.T. issues, March 20, Friday PM close, watching.....
    Monday, March 16 close numbers; which will be reflected in your bond fund holdings or allocation fund; depending on sector exposure and percent mix.
    Gov't. issues, except LQD
    --- SHY = (1-3 yr bills) +.16%
    --- IEI = (3-7 yr notes) +1.04%
    --- IEF = (7-10 yr notes) +2.64%
    --- TLT = (20+ Yr UST Bond +6.48%
    --- EDV = (Vanguard extended duration gov't) = +6.04%
    ---ZROZ =Treasury, 30 yr. zero coupon = +8.39%
    --- LQD = (corp. bond proxy) -1.42%
    Bonds acted a bit more normal today, in relation to the equity markets.
    We'll discover what later in the evening may bring forth.
  • Fall out from covid-19
    The utility sector (see for example XLU) has benefited from the drop in energy prices and has done pretty well compared to most of the other sectors (see https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?[SECT] for example) , but I don't think it's going to be all roses for them. In particular, the power companies are going to have a huge drop in demand.
    Sitting in Boston I think about National Grid, our local electric utility. --- B.U. and Northeastern between them have sent 100,000 students home, and that 's before you think about MIT, Harvard, the various U Mass branches and the smaller universities. These universities are not heating or lighting the dorms, the classroom buildings, the labs etc.
    And then there's all the lights and heat not being used in the public schools, the parochial schools, the churches, (all of which have, in the past, been immune to recessions and are now closed).
    Plus just the lights in restaurants and stores.
    Of course, in some places there will also be lost sales to mfg plants.
    Many, many years ago I used to teach something called the Leontieff Input-Output model ---- it is a matrix with all the industries across the top and down the side and the entries are the units of what one industry uses from another. (How much electricity does the auto industry use and how many autos/trucks does the electric industry use?) Leontieff won a Nobel Prize for this -but it also allowed people to ask questions like "what happens to GDP if there is a steel strike?" And it seems to me, that is what we need here. I don't know if any of the big forecasters are using this or not (& I certainly don't know the entries in the matrix).
    Any thoughts? Anyone who would know this 'trickle down' effect?
  • Stocks Are Plunging -- Here's What You Need to Know
    I'm going to finally start a cash-position. All my "cash" is just the combined amount that my Fund Managers are sitting on. I can't believe things will turn around before the election in November. If things bounce-back quickly, I won't be sad. What about the prospect of a 1930s extended Depression? Oil is one good indicator. Bouncing around like a yo-yo. I paid for more expensive gas in California in October than I ever have in Hawaii. And generally, Hawaii's gas is 30% higher than I was accustomed to, back East. (Something about the "West coast rip-off" I have been told about, besides.) Now, oil has taken a tumble. ..... History teacher long ago told us that in the '30s, you could buy a whole meal at a not-so-fancy restaurant for a quarter. ..... But with the gummint greasing the economy, DEFLATION doesn't seem like any kind of realistic prospect. These massive debt numbers leave me numb. What is the dollar worth, anymore? Two cents? Portfolio is down from the recent high by -15%. That's digestible, though not pleasant, of course. I moved a big chunk to bonds last year, and that helps, but bonds are still sinking along with everything else, notwithstanding.... Gonna send a small amount to BIAWX.