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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Oakmark Funds - and Alternative suggestion(s) ?
    The Morningstar downside capture of 148 is during the drawdown period of 11 months in 2018. I checked this under risk of OAKIX. Called Morningstar and they stated there were a lot of inquiries and they have to redo their website as the reliability and meaningfulness of there capture figures measure too narrow a time period and is in question.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    >> I sold ... PINCX ... BCOIX
    >> I bought PINCX+BCOIX earlier last week
    short-term-trading penalties / fees ?

    PAID $49.95 ST for PINCX. Paid nothing for BCOIX. Made thousands :-)
    I don't pay for buying Inst shares, selling doesn't have any fees. Many times I don't pay for ST penalties either. I have a special arrangement.
    how nice for you
  • Oakmark Funds - and Alternative suggestion(s) ?
    I had OAKIX in an IRA and after a good 15-20 years got tired of its performance and swapped it for more VTSAX and never looked back (it wasn't a large amount). I've posted before that upon recs here and other research, I've channeled my int'l holdings into MGGPX and VWIGX and content with that. Good luck!
  • funds that are holding up in bad markets, thriving in good
    I'm always curious to learn and, in particular, learn about who's managing well across different environments since those strike me as candidates for long term holdings (though certainly not sure things). I ran a quick screen at Morningstar looking for funds that have top 15% returns over the past month (through 3/9/2020) and over the past three years as well.
    Here's the code: fund / category / 4 week percentile rank / 36 month percentile rank / 36 month APR. In each category I took the fund with the lowest combined rank: a fund in the 1st percentile and 4th percentile would beat out a fund in the 5th percentile and 1st percentile (total 5 versus total 6). With more time, I would have done something more sophisticated.
    Columbia Thermostat / 15-30% equity / 3 / 2 / 7.2%.
    Madison Conservative Allocation / 30-50% equity / 1 / 9 / 5.3%.
    Walden Balanced / 50-85% equity / 9 / 3 / 6.5%
    PIMCO Stocks Plus Long Duration / 85%+ equity / 1 / 1/ 20%
    ATAC Rotation / tactical allocation / 1 / 2/ 10.8%
    Voya Global Perspectives / world allocation / 7 / 2 / 5.6%
    iShares Edge MSCI Minimum Volatility USA / large blend / 4 / 1/ 10.9%
    Akre Focus / large growth / 1 / 3 / 18.5%
    BMO Low Volatility Equity / large value / 1 / 1 / 7.3%
    ABR Dynamic Blend Equity & Volatility / long-short equity / 1 / 1/ 10.5%. Ummm ... up 20% in the past four weeks?
    Infinity Q Diversified Alpha / multi-alternative / 1 / 2 / 7.7%
    Government Street Mid-Cap / midcap blend / 5 / 2/ 6.6%
    T Rowe Price New Horizons / midcap growth / 1 / 2 / 18.2%
    Virtus KAR Mid-Cap Growth / midcap growth / 2 / 1 / 21.2%
    Jensen Quality Value / midcap value / 3 / 2 / 4.0%. A sad reflection on the state of value investing
    Calvert Small-Cap / small blend / 5 / 3 / 3.3%
    Wasatch Ultra Growth / small growth / 5 / 2 / 21.3%
    Camelot Excalibur Small Cap / small value / 1 / 5 / -0.4%. Eeek.
    The ABR fund invests in the S&P500, VIX futures and cash. In low vol markets, it increases equity and in high vol markets, it increases exposure to the VIX. Expensive but it's sort of worked.
    Akre is amazing. New Horizons, likewise. Columbia Thermostat keeps cropping up. Government Street Mid-Cap is tiny but excellent. The Virtus KAR folks are mostly closed, mostly really good.
    Just some thoughts on what's been working a bit.
    David
  • Dodge and Cox
    "This is why when volatility increases, such as the last 3 years, their funds lag."
    Volatility decreased for DODFX and in foreign markets.
    Std dev Jan 2014 - Jan 2017
    DODFX: 14.81%
    EFV: 12.97% (iShares MSCI EAFE Value, used as proxy for foreign large cap value market)
    VEU: 12.58% (Vanguard FTSE All-World, ex-US, used as proxy for foreign market)
    Std dev Jan 2017 - Jan 2020
    DODFX: 14.13%
    EFV: 12.12%
    VEU: 11.80%
  • Dodge and Cox
    D&C have good funds but many of them are riskier and it shows at market stress such as 2008 and many times when stocks go down at least 10%. This is why when volatility increases, such as the last 3 years, their funds lag.
    I have never owned their funds because I found better choices.
    DODBX-->I used to own PRWCX. In the last 3-5 years, DODBX ranks in its category at 90 and 50. 90 means it's in the bottom 10%. JABAX is much better too.
    DODIX-->is probably their best fund but I still owned PIMIX for several years, I know, it's not the same category. DODIX is really Multi sector light and why yesterday it lost -1% while most core plus did better.
    DODGX--->SP500(VFIAX/VFINX) has better performance for 5-10-15 years. This is PorVis(link) for 15 years that shows that SP500 had better performance, SD, Sortino.
    DODFX has a negative performance for 3-5 years and ranks in its category at 77,78 which is pretty bad. Very easy to find better funds such as AFCNX.
    D&C funds have low expenses which is nice but only one part of the puzzle.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    At Schwab, you enter the trade and before the "PLACE ORDER" it will tell you
    DHEIX isn't available - only to institutions.
    DHEAX-free to buy, min $2500, 90 days early redemption fee at $49.95
    JMISX (Inst share)-it's free to buy(unique, not at Fidelity), $100 min, 90 days early fee at $49.95
    JMUTX-free to buy, min $2500, 90 days early redemption fee at $49.95
  • Oakmark Funds - and Alternative suggestion(s) ?
    FMIJX has only been around since 2011, but it seems to offer a less bumpy ride on the international roads than OAKIX
    Comparison (FMIJX is Blue)
    https://screencast.com/t/aH8SN5eam
  • Vanguard's VMVFX... not so Minimum
    Seems to me like there is room for both VMVFX and PRGSX in a portfolio if one is looking for some global exposure.
    Lipper calls the first a global small/mid cap, and the latter a global multi-cap growth fund. M* calls the Price fund a global large cap, but agrees on the Vanguard fund.
    As mentioned previously, VMVFX is in the top 10% in it's category YTD. Looking at it's performance over the past six years (which is approximately the life of the fund) with the MFO premium tool, VMVFX leads its category in performance with half the standard deviation and twice the Sharpe ratio.
    Using the same tool, and six year period, PRGSX is third in it's category with a better standard deviation, but a lower Sharpe.
    So it seems to me that both funds are doing a pretty good job at what they advertise they are trying to do. When I'm shopping for a fund in a specific category I find it more useful to compare it to other funds in the same category
  • Oakmark Funds - and Alternative suggestion(s) ?
    > with such a sizeable PF value would you be comfortable with a PF that mimics a conservative allocation?
    Looking back over the last 25 years, merely owning a conservative allocation fund such as VWINX and taking a 4% withdrawal annually (based on the PF annual value) would have:
    -limited downside (worst year) losses to 9% (which is where you are right now)
    -provided an ever increasing annual withdrawal never less than year 1 withdrawal
    (4% of $1.87M = $86K)
    -almost doubled your portfolio value during these draw downs from $1.87M to $3.45M
    You have done very well.
    I used Portfolio Visualizer to construct the historical data:
    https://portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio
    >
    Yep, actually I would. I've reflected on that many times in just the past year or so...and VWINX as a benchmark but well you know, hindsight!: ). I'll likely look at some form of consolidation such as you suggest to simplify things, and of course have to take all of the tax aspects into account for the transition. Have been with Schwab for a long time but might consider taking everything to VG and converting it all to a simple handful of allocation funds or whatever it may be;
    Meantime tho, to maintain a diversified PF, have an immediate need to fill in the small OAKEX/OAKIX holdings to be replaced... (about 4.5% of PF combined). Part of me wants to select a managed fund for foreign exposure, but recommendations have leaned toward index ETFs for this, such as FNDC and FNDF (for the OAK funds respectively). ALternately EFAV, IEFA.
    Just having a few percent in EM VMMSX is irking me since I only recently replaced AEMGX with that - and as of now would've been better off simply going to cash with it for awhile ; )
  • Oakmark Funds - and Alternative suggestion(s) ?
    @mikes425 without knowing your income needs its hard to give accurate advice, but with such a sizeable PF value would you be comfortable with a PF that mimics a conservative allocation?
    Looking back over the last 25 years, merely owning a conservative allocation fund such as VWINX and taking a 4% withdrawal annually (based on the PF annual value) would have:
    -limited downside (worst year) losses to 9% (which is where you are right now)
    -provided an ever increasing annual withdrawal never less than year 1 withdrawal
    (4% of $1.87M = $86K)
    -almost doubled your portfolio value during these draw downs from $1.87M to $3.45M
    You have done very well.
    I used Portfolio Visualizer to construct the historical data:
    https://portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio
  • Oakmark Funds - and Alternative suggestion(s) ?
    Mike, in my opinion, there is very little potential downside to selling 1 equity fund and buying or adding to another at the same time. Selling and not buying a new fund would be a different story. At that point you sold at a loss with no potential to get that loss back.
    Mike, yes that's my goal in this case. Definitely want to replace these with a better fund or funds to "cover" this slice of my portfolio's overall diversification - in this case, foreign/international. Currently my total International allocation is less than 10%...
    so now am focused on deciding between candidates suggested here and elsewhere to go with in place of these.
  • Oakmark Funds - and Alternative suggestion(s) ?
    Mike, in my opinion, there is very little potential downside to selling 1 equity fund and buying or adding to another at the same time. Selling and not buying a new fund would be a different story. At that point you sold at a loss with no potential to get that loss back.
  • Vanguard's VMVFX... not so Minimum
    As for comparison of VMVFX and VWINX, VWINX is 33% US stocks, the rest is bonds, whereas VMVFX is 50/50 in US/Non-US stocks, nothing in bonds. Thus it is hard to compare them. Taking into account bad performance of non-US stocks, it is interesting that VMVFX outperformed VWINX during the last 10 years
  • Oakmark Funds - and Alternative suggestion(s) ?
    OAKIX is a really volatile fund. Sometimes that's good, often not. I used to own it; held it for years until its dramatic ups and frequent downs got the better of me. I wanted a smoother ride, even at the potential cost of some measure of lost returns over (what I think would be) a very long time horizon. Plus, I felt the fund was charging too much given its size and poor medium-term performance. In the end I transitioned out of the fund and into a low cost all-cap foreign index fund. That's worked out well, relatively speaking, so far. Annual returns are never in the 99th percentile, which is where OAKIX has been landing (though they'll never be in the top 1% either). I also wonder whether the much smaller asset base during its earlier years had anything to do with the fund's historic outperformance. I'll never know the answer to that.
  • Oakmark Funds - and Alternative suggestion(s) ?
    Thanks for the perspectives. Tough choice on whether to hold from here. Right now
    OAKIX, 2.3% of my taxable account, is down 20.8% as of yesterday. OAKEX, (2%
    position) down 16%. VMMSX -(3% position) down 17%. With the OAK funds, it comes
    down to not if but when I want to exit. I def. want to be in a less concentrated value
    holding(s) for foreign markets - finding an alternative isn't so much the issue as
    whether to cut losses because it's a difficult read how long a slog it might be to even
    get close to break even on these positions for a better price to sell. Appears to be
    pretty much total guesswork at this point.
  • David's March Discussion - a lot of food for thought --- AMEN
    Gary, you noted:
    Quote from David, "continue ignoring financial pornography, screaming heads, click-bait and other appeals to my worst instincts. Between rising market volatility, rising political frenzy and international challenges occasioned by dictators and viruses, that’s going to take some discipline.
    These are personality traits, of individuals; which may or may not be fixable given enough time. Hopefully, this condition doesn't affect their investment judgments; although one will have to presume a law of averages. Hell, at least 50% of long time drivers in Michigan don't know how black ice forms on roadways; and definitely don't remember from the previous winter driving season.
    As to post's here, yes. One should read and understand an article to determine how valid the information is, relative to this forum. You've been here since day 1, too; and have seen enough of the junk posts (which still persist). I/we don't need to read about a precious metals (or whatever) web site trying to justify why it is time to buy right now before the world "goes to hell in a hand basket". This doesn't include a well written document at a web site to justify an investment overview. I just don't need to see a clickable link in the first paragraph so that I may "sign up" for more profound info.
    A poster should be able to provide 10-20 of their own words in succinct fashion as to why they feel the post is relevant. None of the copy/paste of 500-1,000 words format.
    Some may feel I become too chatty with some posts, but I attempt to not write hallow words and thoughts from my viewpoint. I don't bang upon the keyboard for finger exercises.
    Okay, enough from me.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • Vanguard's VMVFX... not so Minimum
    @rforno,
    When I compare VMVFX to PRGSX's performance I have no long term complaints...just that these most recent losses seem worth noting. VMVFX did behaved more in line with its mandate during the last two downturns (2016 & 2018).
    For additional comparison I also charted PRWCX (I have always appreciated that VMVFX closely mimics PRWCX past performance).
    VMVFX since inception (vs PRGSX & PRWCX):
    https://screencast.com/t/ftSTamcSZWtj
  • Vanguard's VMVFX... not so Minimum

    Quick comment before i head off to meetings --
    Using SeekingAlpha data regarding yesterday's pricing:
    VIIIX -20.32 (-7.58%)
    PRGSX -3.00 (-6.91%)
    VMVFX -0.89 (-6.46%)
    So ... yeah a big loss, but on an absolute basis it did technically did 'beat' the market yesterday, albeit by a vey little, which is probably good enough for its managers to say it's meeting its mandate.