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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Global Valuations
    Here are two sites that I follow for global valuations:
    Global Stock Market Valuations and Expected Future Returns
    Global Stock Market Valuation Ratios
    The following article demonstrates how CAPE and P/B reliably predict future market returns and market drawdowns in both domestic and foreign equity markets:
    Predicting Stock Market Returns Using The Shiller Cape

    Excellent excerpt from this last article:
    "Existing research indicates that the cyclically adjusted Shiller CAPE has predicted long-term returns in the S&P 500 since 1881 fairly reliable for periods of more than 10 years. Furthermore, the results of this paper indicate that this was also the case for 16 other international equity markets in the period from 1979 to 2015, and in addition to this, CAPE also enabled equity market risks to be gauged. In this manner, low market valuations were not only followed by above average market returns but also lower drawdowns. On the contrary, high market valuations led to lower returns and faced higher market risks."
    As far as investing, what does all this mean to me. Since CAPE matters globally, I am inclined to consider the ETF CAPE (however, average daily trading volume is too low for me), the ETF GVAL, and the mutual funds DSEEX/DSENX and DSEUX/DLEUX.
    In our portfolio, I am confident in using CAPE and P/B for investment selection, and have an 18% position in DSEEX and a 10% position in PXH.
    Kevin
  • Abhay Deshpande CINTX and CENTS - any opinion?
    It sounds like an advertisement, because the first two sentences were copied from the web, but the end of it was mine: First Eagle funds are famous for their stability, safety and growth. I always wanted to have a chance to invest with them, but their funds either require 5% load, or 1 M for the institutional shares. Right now First Eagle Overseas has 15B AUM, and First Eagle Global has 51B AUM. Some of their leaders such as Jean-Marie Eveillard and Abhay Deshpande left. Meanwhile AUM of Centerstone funds is 1000 time smaller.
  • What Are You Buying ... Selling ... or Pondering?
    @Old_Skeet - You did well and stuck with your methodology. I like a bond-only portfolio because of the lower maximum draw down, which was 0.8% vs 8.5% for the S&P in Feb 2016.
    I hope we all do well in 2017.
  • M* nominees for US fund managers of the year 2016
    Some strong candidates. Its only for 2016 but I have been invested in twvlx since 1994 and tweix since 2006. IMO Mr. Davidson and team consistently have provided good risk/return performances over multiple time frames and cycles.
    http://corporate.morningstar.com/us/asp/subject.aspx?xmlfile=174.xml&filter=PR5719
  • What Are You Buying ... Selling ... or Pondering?
    Since, the topic has move to portfolio and investment performance Morningstar reports my investment return for 2016 at 10.1% while my brokerge house reports my combined account(s) returned 8.3% for the year which includes my sizeable cash position of about 20%. My bogey, the Lipper Balanced Index, is being reported to have returned 7.0% for 2016. With this, I score myself successful for the past year although my return fell short of my five year average return of 9.0%. I use my five year average return rate to help set my portfolio's annual distribution rate. Generally, I take no more than a sum equal to one halve of my five year average return.
    My best performing sleeve for 2016 was my small/mid cap sleeve found in the growth area of my postfolio with a return of 38.7%. The next two best were found in the growth & income area of my portfolio with my domestic equity sleeve which returned 16.8% which edeged out my domestic hybrid sleeve with a return of 16.6%.
    Seems though some of you active bond fellas (Junkster & SlowLane) left me snockered with your returns. I am happy with my return so I know you two have to be excitied with yours.
    For infromation purposes and according to Instant Xray my portfolio bubbles at 20% cash, 25% bonds, 34% US stocks, 16% foreign stocks and 5% other as I open 2017.
    Wishing everyone "Good Investing" as we move through 2017.
    Again, nice going @Junkster & @SlowLane!
    Old_Skeet
  • REcommendations for International SmallCap Fund (Value or Blend) at Fidelity
    Fidelity will accept $2500 for QUSIX in an IRA.
    Fidelity will likely let you transfer in shares (e.g. from Vanguard) to a taxable account even if you don't have $1M. But you should check to be sure, and also make sure that they'll let you buy more once you transfer the shares in.
  • M*: Lower-Cost T Shares Coming To A Fund Near You
    A shares make sense if you hold them for long periods of time ( usually 7 years or longer) to take advantage of their generally lower ER, even factoring in the opportunity cost of not investing the 5.75% immediately. ... If you use a broker whose advice you find excellent, this is a small price to pay and probably a better deal than the 1% of all assets Merrill Lynch is reportedly going to charge their customers yearly. ... There are some brokers whose advice is excellent. Advisers, fee only or in wrap accounts or whatever, will not work for nothing. I would rather know what I was paying them than find hidden fees buried in the prospectus
    John Rekenthaler, Vice President of Research at M* would seem to agree with you. He makes essentially the same point in Barron's ("The View From 30,000 Feet" - Jan. 9, 2017). Rekenthaler adds: "I think A shares, in which you pay a one time commission (known as a load) are underappreciated."
    ---
    (This is from the print edition. However, Ted's recent link, "How to Pick Great Funds", should take you to the online version.)
  • What Are You Buying ... Selling ... or Pondering?
    Two trades late December:
    Sold remaining shares of PRNEX - up 25% in 2016.
    Bought PIEQX - up 1.43% in 2016.
    Sell high. Buy low.
    "Nobody's ever made money in commodities."
  • What Are You Buying ... Selling ... or Pondering?
    55% in bank loan fund BXFYX and 45% in junk corporate IVHIX. Bank loans are overloved and overbought while junk corporates are just overbought. Since 12/08 my goal has been to beat the S&P total return trading bond funds and with minimal drawdown. Except for 2013 made my goal. Something tells me unless 2017 is a bear market for stocks, I will fall short of my goal this year.
  • REcommendations for International SmallCap Fund (Value or Blend) at Fidelity
    I am not sure there is a compelling reason to own smallcap value or smallcap growth per se. Why not look at the entire Intl smallcap space? QUSIX has been a good option for actively-managed funds. I would compare it to DLS even though DLS is a lot more dividend oriented. Expenses are a big deal. You will pay 73 bps more for active management that won a bit over five years, broke even over three, and lagged by 600 bps over last 12 months. Will management be able to match the 5-year comparison going forward? SCZ is a blend of value and growth. It has similar numbers with expenses of only 40 bps. Also note that QUSIX has about 20% in EM small caps, so the potential volatility is higher. Maybe the bigger question is whether you need an international small cap at all. Will this really bump your returns or just increase the potential risk?
  • M*: Lower-Cost T Shares Coming To A Fund Near You
    In addition to having no alternatives in Annuities and some 401k, some of us have worked with brokers in the past who only have access to A or C shares. I have done the math many times, and old_skeet is correct... A shares make sense if you hold them for long periods of time ( usually 7 years or longer) to take advantage of their generally lower ER, even factoring in the opportunity cost of not investing the 5.75% immediately.
    If you use a broker whose advice you find excellent, this is a small price to pay and probably a better deal than the 1% of all assets Merrill Lynch is reportedly going to charge their customers yearly.
    There are some brokers whose advice is excellent. Advisers, fee only or in wrap accounts or whatever, will not work for nothing. I would rather know what I was paying them than find hidden fees buried in the prospectus
  • REcommendations for International SmallCap Fund (Value or Blend) at Fidelity
    @LLJB
    I'm a little surprised Intrepid has only been able to raise $17MM in assets with a good record over more than 2 years. It almost seems like the risk of liquidation for ICMIX could be pretty high if it doesn't garner a good amount more interest in the next 12 months. They're eating almost half of expenses under the expense waiver and that most likely means "future" shareholders will eventually bear those costs if the expense ratio eventually falls below the waiver.
    Thank you for your preceding comments. Let me add a few points.
    Intrepid seeks to put the shareholder’s interests first and generate great risk-adjusted returns. They have six different mutual fund strategies launched since 2005 and have been patient with each of these strategies, recognizing that it takes time for the asset base to grow and for the funds to start showing up on screens.
    They give every fund they launch a multiyear timeframe to prove itself, which should at least reflect a full market cycle, and specifically have little expectation that any new fund will grow materially until it secures a three-year track record and receives a Morningstar rating.
    ICMIX is on track with their initial assumptions for asset growth, does not foresee eliminating its expense ratio caps, and hopes to reduce the expense ratios as the fund grows.
    As Franklin said in his 3Q 16 commentary, “Thank you for letting us build”, i.e., the building process takes time, and that being patient and building the portfolio right pays off for everyone.
    I appreciate your interest in this month's article.
    Best.
  • What Are You Buying ... Selling ... or Pondering?
    bought little of CANADIAN NAT RES LTD NOTE CALL MAKE WHOLE 7.20000% 01/15/2032 cusip 136385AC5 last wk
  • marijuana mf in focus -
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/4035753-marijuana-mutual-fund-focus
    Sorry if this article offend anyone
    I never used this but this maybe tip of iceberg in term of good vehicle/income to hold in the near future
  • M*: Lower-Cost T Shares Coming To A Fund Near You

    And, @JoJo26 of your bold comment ..., I am most thankful that you don't govern my affairs for you appear, to me, you might be a person that is penny wise but dollar foolish.
    Old_Skeet
    Talk to me in 15 years and we will see whose portfolio performs better. Why on earth would you want to dig yourself into a 2-5% hole by paying loads.....
  • M*: Lower-Cost T Shares Coming To A Fund Near You
    @BobC - thanks for your post. In some cases at least, as @catch22 pointed out, the learning experiences weren't even mistakes. At the time there were sound reasons for the choices, whether they worked out or not.
    Small companies often use annuities in their 401(k) plans. The annuities generate so much income for the insurance companies that they don't charge the employer (plan sponsor) anything for all the filings and administrative work they provide. This makes the employer happy, the employees less so.
    With C shares, some annuities give you credit for the trailing fees they are getting from the funds. So instead of paying, say 1.25% for the annuity and 1.77% for TEGBX, you'd get credit for the 1% kickback, and get charged a total of :
    (1.25% - 1%) + 1.77% = 1.25% + (1.77% - 1%) = 2.02%.
    Effectively, you're getting TEGBX for 0.77%.
    Regarding archives - google is your friend. Of course, you have to know what you're looking for :-)
  • M*: Lower-Cost T Shares Coming To A Fund Near You
    Hi @msf
    Yup, have held TEGBX (C shares); cause I/we wanted the fund holding at the time and the fund was only available via a company retirement offering. I don't recall all of the nuts and bolts of the share pricing at the time, but that the outright E.R. is/was .77%.
    Our house history with this fund:
    ---Purchase about May, 2009.........sell May, 2012 total return for this period = +27%
    ---this fund ran about another year with solid returns; May 2012-May 2013 = +14%
    ---Two price peaks occurred near May, 2013 and again at Sept. 2014
    ---May 2013 return through present = -1%
    ---Sept 2014 return through present = -2%
    I won't "dis" the manager's skill and/or knowledge of global bonds. Our house was merely attempting to wade through the nasty investing environment of the time. The U.S. was still moving to the next Q.E. policy, Euroland was still in austerity mode, Greece was blowing investing "stuff" up every 6 months or so and bonds were still having positive price moves (U.S. credit rating downgrade, Aug. 2011). TEGBX during our holding period was another diverse area in bondland, aside from investment grade and high yield. Playing in bondland is about as much of a challenge as one may choose in the investment world, IMHO. So, we got lucky with our "in" period for this fund, but apparently left when the leaving was good.
    I will presume @JoJo26 never had to be concerned with "A" or "C" share choices inside an offered retirement program. We all have different plates of choice, at least involving retirement plan offerings via an employer.
    I will nominate you, @msf for the MFO archiver award. :)
    This link is overview of this fund and class info:
    https://www.franklintempleton.com/forms-literature/download/406-FF
    Regards,
    Catch