Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    @Tarwheel I shall certainly look at PTTFX. I did consider the very thing you mentioned about RPSIX, and initially decided that I liked its monthlies, and if there's a bit of a boost at the end of the year from the small position in stocks, all the better. I'm still trying, but not very hard, to get to 60 bonds, 40 stocks. Right now I'm 56 bonds and 36 stocks, and 7 cash. My fund managers, together, have all decided in the aggregate to create that 7 percent in cash. And there might be 1 or 2 percent in "other."
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    @Tarwheel, you are correct, M* puts PTTFX in the Intermediate Core-Plus category but I would call it MS(Multi Sector) light.
    The best risk/reward category over the last several years is securitized.
    M* says that PTTFX has over 50% in it and it's the biggest category.
    VCFAX has about 90% in securitized...JMUTX 49%...PUCZX 32%...IOFIX 90+%.
    Portfolio Vis (link) shows that VCFAX,JMUTX,PUCZX have better performance, SD, Sharpe, Sortino.
  • 1.90% 30 yr UST.....change notice, 1.00% w/.54% on 10 yr UST; "Welcome to the Twilight Zone"
    Yes, I'm bumping this to add a link for those who may have an interest in COVID 19. The page link is a global map, that I have found to be "decent" with update periods, when compared to other sources. This is not the only such data map for this subject, but allows the viewer to move/drag and zoom the map; as well as clicking onto an area of interest to obtain data for a particular location and in many cases, a link to the source of the data.
    NOTE: I find the data may be one day behind in reporting; as is the case with South Korea.
    I going to monitor this periodically, with refreshing the map web page.
    COVID 19 DATA MAP
    Take care of you and yours,
    Catch
  • 1.90% 30 yr UST.....change notice, 1.00% w/.54% on 10 yr UST; "Welcome to the Twilight Zone"
    From a Feb. 17 note I posted:
    Our continued concern is what will become of the COVID19 virus and its impact on supply chain for various sectors. Tech. in particular could be an overwhelming favorite for profit taking.
    ***30 year bond yield dropped below 2%
    We've maintained our tech. equity positions and of course, don't want to give money back; but some areas of tech. will be less impacted. Data crunching and related services should maintain, while some areas of the hardware providers may see problems from supply chain difficulties.
    Investment grade bonds (U.S., more so for gov't issues) will have another nice pop today, if nothing changes with status reports for COVID 19; and in particular for my view is the virus and impacts into South Korea.
    Those with portfolio exposure to long gov't. issues and especially directly exposed to the likes of: EDV, LTPZ, ZROZ will profit nicely. These 3 etf's however, travel at a fast rate in both directions; so hold on tight if you have monies here.
    I'll add this yield chart that I use. The chart is for 1 year and is YIELD, not pricing. Hover the cursor on the chart lines for rate and date info.
    Have a good remainder.
    Catch
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    DODIX is a top fund in the Intermediate Core-Plus category. I like to show how a good Multisector fund can have better performance, SD=voltility and why Sharpe+Sortino are higher.
    See 3 year performance at PortVis(link)
    See the chart (here)
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    The 10 year treasury is down again.  TLT (20+ treasury ETF) is at all-time high.  That's a good time in bond land  :-)
  • BUY - SELL - OR PONDER February 2020
    Since, equities have had a strong run during the third and fourth quarters of 2019 I've had to buy in the fixed income area of my portfolio to help maintain balance within my asset allocation. This month, I added to my muni income fund (FLAAX) with it being the best performing fund within my income sleeve year to date with a total return, as of 2/20/2020, of 2.65%. The sleeve's next best year to date performer was LBNDX with a total return of 2.49%. My income sleeve's total return for its rolling twelve month period was found to be listed at 8.25% with its yield, about half that, at 4.13%. The three best performing funds within the sleeve for the rolling 12 month period were LBNDX +10.98%, FLAAX +10.32% and PGBAX +10.06%.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    Let's look at RPSIX PRSNX PTIAX and compare them to several other Multi sector funds in my list such as VCFAX,JMUTX,PUCZX,IOFIX
    Looking at PV (link)
    You can see below that VCFAX,JMUTX,PUCZX,IOFIX are better RPSIX PRSNX PTIAX The last 2 columns are Sharpe +Sortino.
    See this link (link)
  • Warren jumps on etf train
    IKR! Since May 31, 1990 BRK.A is up only 4,711.19% while SPY is up 670.05%. Dumb as a rock that Warren. Terrible money manager.
    p.s. those dates merely reflect the charting dates provided by the Max button on a M* chart. I'm well aware that it is silly to extoll his management capabilities based on one random chart but you can find all the performance data you want with a simple search.
    A Simple Look
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    “I can make 20-30+%“
    Funny thing about quoting percentages is that seem higher than they appear to be.
    Say if a bond fund returns 3%, a 30% increase amounts to less than 1% increase in return.
    Is the effort worth it for a tiny 1% increase in return?
    Are other assets classes (stocks) or asset allocations (stock to bond ratios) better to target?
    You will find out when the floor falls out from under an equity. Loss of 2% in one day? No problem. Bond OEFs move much slower.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!

    This tread intention is to discuss only open-ended bond funds.
    Not stocks vs Bonds
    Not CEFs vs bonds
    Not asset allocation
    Not how anybody invests currently and in the past.
    Not about retirement or accumulation phase.
    If you like to discuss the above non-related topics please start a new thread.
    + 1
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    “I can make 20-30+%“
    Funny thing about quoting percentages is that seem higher than they appear to be.
    Say if a bond fund returns 3%, a 30% increase amounts to less than 1% increase in return.
    Is the effort worth it for a tiny 1% increase in return?
    Are other assets classes (stocks) or asset allocations (stock to bond ratios) better to target?
    @BigTom
    Nope, it's not only 1% increase it's much more than that.
    Several examples:
    1) PIMIX vs BND (link)=in the last 10 years PIMIX made 5% more annually with higher SD(but still low) and much better Sharpe+Sortino
    2) IOFIX vs BND (link)=IOFIX made almost 8% more annually with similar SD and much better Sharpe+Sortino.
    3) A relative used to invest in MM, I told him to use SEMPX instead after I explained it to him. In 5 years SEMPX made 4.4 while VG VMMXX made 1.2%, this is more than 3% annually.
    4) I told another relative to use HY Munis instead of some of his MM/CD and he made over 7% in the last 3 years instead of 1.5-2%.
    This tread intention is to discuss only open-ended bond funds.
    Not stocks vs Bonds
    Not CEFs vs bonds
    Not asset allocation
    Not how anybody invests currently and in the past.
    Not about retirement or accumulation phase.
    If you like to discuss the above non-related topics please start a new thread.
    It's a pretty simple concept, you post a bond fund and we discuss it generally and compare it to other funds.
    So, do you have a bond fund in mind you like to discuss?
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    “I can make 20-30+%“
    Funny thing about quoting percentages is that seem higher than they appear to be.
    Say if a bond fund returns 3%, a 30% increase amounts to less than 1% increase in return.
    Is the effort worth it for a tiny 1% increase in return?
    Are other assets classes (stocks) or asset allocations (stock to bond ratios) better to target?
  • Where To Get Income In A Low-Yield World

    How many times do you see returns listed this way ?
    DErf
  • Rebalancing Your Portfolio
    Ignore gold shills.
    Rebalancing is not too hard. Don't be afraid of capital gains taxes, they are at historic lows if you have little or no earned income.
    I am wary of bond funds. As I shave off my stock index fund gains little by little, I've actually been buying individual bonds of 1 to 2 year duration until recently. The offerings really dried up in January, though, and even money markets are paying more than 1-2 year near-junk-grade stuff. Once rates hit zero (and I think they will) what will happen to valuations? I dunno.
    My calculations say I can live for a few years off my for-now 3% bond ladder yield so I am buying my time. 15% cash as well, shooting for higher.
    Don't forget that I-series savings bonds pay over 2% if you are willing to hold them a long time.
    I am curious why you are wary on bond OEFs? There are 2 excellent posters here that do a lot of research on them. From those 2 I have learned a lot about bond funds. I do not follow anyone blindly but still do my own due diligence.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    My intention is to put forward several of my best ideas and compare them to funds that others own. So, if you have any fund in mind we can discuss it.
    I'm also looking to make more than the average with bond funds but still, have reasonable low volatility, if I can make 20-30+% more money with portfolio overall SD lower than 2.5 than I accomplish my goals.
    Bonds are where great managers can add performance + sometimes lower volatility compared to a generic index such as BND.
    HY Munis continue to be my favorite category. OPTAX jumped 2 days, each at 0.9% which is very unusual. YTD...OPTAX 4.3%...NHMAX 3.65...ORNAX 3.4% (chart).
  • Rebalancing Your Portfolio
    I'm glad you mentioned that zero, because it highlights the distinction between current yield (interest payments), and yield to maturity (for individual bonds) or SEC yield (for bond funds).
    That zero "yielded" zero (duh). It paid no interest. That 5.6% figure was the rate of return you got on the bond, including interest payments (none) and "appreciation". That is, total return.
    (BTW, that "appreciation" would be taxed as ordinary income under today's tax laws.)
    Now suppose you bought a 10 year bond for $1090 (par $1K) with a coupon of 3%. Your current yield would be 2.75% ($30/$1090). But your yield to maturity would be only 2%, because you'd get back just $1K at maturity.
    http://www.moneychimp.com/calculator/bond_yield_calculator.htm
    A way to think about it (and the way the IRS thinks about it), is that part of that $30 in annual "interest" is return of principal. Effectively, this "current yield" is eating away at your investment.
    This is why I prefer to look at SEC yield. This is also why in your post it helps to compare the SEC yield of the bond funds with the yield to maturity of the zero bond. Were the bond fund yields you gave current (or trailing) yields, or were they SEC yields?