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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • GAVAX in 2017?
    @VintageFreak, In the World Allocation space, I would prefer MTOIX, which is available in Fidelity retirement accounts for a $500 minimum + TF according to a test trade I just made.
    Kevin
  • A Good Year and a Dire Forecast
    Hate to rain on the proceedings, but Hussman had another Dire year. HSGFX was down 11.74%. $10,000 invested at the beginning of 2007 would be worth about $6,055 today.
    http://funds.us.reuters.com/US/funds/overview.asp?symbol=HSGFX.O
    Sad for those who've lost money. There have to be a lot of lessons to be gleaned from a once popular manager (way back in FA days). I'd say first - It's hard to time markets, and second, playing defense perpetually doesn't work. Am sure there's many more.
  • A Good Year and a Dire Forecast
    So I did some calculating of the returns. According to M* my entire mess was up 16.8% in 2016 (Brokerage: 18.6%, SEP-IRA: 12.1, Roth: 21.8). I'll take it.
    To be fair, I don't invest much with mutual funds anymore mostly because I suck at selecting them or at least formulating a strategy around their selection despite all that Roy and David have tried to teach me. At this point I hold 6 funds which are on autopilot and I hardly ever look at them. I do use CEF's though so when the board discusses a mutual fund or fund category of interest I'll often look for a similar offering in the CEF pile.
    What I do invest in mainly is a dividend growth strategy based portfolio containing 20-25 stocks. For a great example of what this entails see here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/4033646-dividend-growth-portfolio-2016-review-2017-preview?uprof=46&isDirectRoadblock=false
    No this is not me or my exact portfolio but the idea, returns and many of the holdings are the same. I am overweight Reit's & Energy but not underwater on any of those positions. I'm looking to spread some of that into Tech and Industrial holdings if I can find the right positions. Healthcare related things were my biggest detractors to better results last year. Damn you Gilead, pull it out already!
    My most valuable lesson learned was that the less I fiddled with things, the better I did. Honestly I don't trade this portfolio much unless a dividend gets cut (KMI got me) or I can swap a good one for a better one.
  • Keeping SFGIX?
    Good year, in 2016. I've been in it for a bit more than 4 years. Is it really up by about 15% in 4 years---or so? Double checking myself.
    Are you really trying to buy in and out of active funds on an annual basis? IMO, that is a losing formula...
  • Keeping SFGIX?
    Good year, in 2016. I've been in it for a bit more than 4 years. Is it really up by about 15% in 4 years---or so? Double checking myself.
  • "Thinking About Asset Allocation 2017"
    The link below will take you to a piece written by Brian Gilmartin of Trinity Asset Management about his thoughts for his retail account holders asset allocations for 2017. He has made post under the handle "fundmentalis."
    http://fundamentalis.com/?p=6570
    Enjoy the read ...
    I wish all "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • A Good Year and a Dire Forecast

    LOL. You forgot two:
    1) "Average investor" also: probably buys high, sells low, and while they may read on their internet device they don't do serious due diligence before taking action in the markets.
    2) "Average investor" = someone with some money in the markets who is ripe for 'expert' advice from 'broke-ers' and mass market newsletters advertising on late-night TV / website overlays.
    I just love the term "average investor" - So damn precise.
    Let's see ...
    Most likely human (male or female)
    Probably has a pulse with a body temp over 95 F
    Probably possess some wealth (amount unknown)
    Probably can read and write and/or operate an internet connected device
    Probably assumed more investment risk during 2016 than bank CDs would afford
    Got it. :)
  • 2016 At A Glance
    After an early year scare, US equities fared well in 2016, especially since November 6th ... ending year up a handsome 12%.
    image
    Just about the opposite for US aggregate bonds. After a strong first half, they have given up much of their gains to close the year up 2.4%.
    image
  • A Good Year and a Dire Forecast
    I'm happy to say in 2016 my ~ 60% eq :25% bond :10% cash:5% gld, Charles Schwab Intelligent Portfolio returned 11.8%. So far so good on the robo. Not sure what it will do in a down year, but I'm sure to find out at some point. Maybe 'direly' soon.
  • A Good Year and a Dire Forecast
    I just love the term "average investor" - So damn precise.
    Let's see ...
    Most likely human (male or female)
    Probably has a pulse with a body temp over 95 F
    Probably possess some wealth (amount unknown)
    Probably can read and write and/or operate an internet connected device
    Probably assumed more investment risk during 2016 than bank CDs would afford
    Got it. :)
  • A Good Year and a Dire Forecast
    5% on average!!! That's it? I don't feel like I did so badly now but it sure looked sucky back in February.
  • Trump Throws Monkey Wrench Into REIT Sector
    Real Estate Annual Performance Review from Hoya Capital Real Estate
    Hoya wrote a brief annual recap this week, "REIT Awards: 2016." We noted the moderate 6-7% total return in the REIT indexes hides significant divergences within the real estate sector.So how does 2016 stack up by historical standards? Believe it or not, the seemingly strong 6% return is actually among the lowest annual returns since the beginning of the "Modern REIT Era" in 1992, a testament to the robust performance of the real estate sector over the past quarter century.imageimage
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/4033516-real-estate-weekly-reits-end-2016-high-note-christmas-retail-sales-surge
  • Change in share class of BBH International Equity Fund
    This is actually modestly curious news. The $10,000 retail shares disappear but the $5,000,000 institutional shares become available for $10,000. In addition the e.r. drops and the management teams change.
  • Gold
    Not sure what your time frame is for up. Miner stocks have had a good year on their roller coaster ride as shown above by TGLDX ( I think TGLDX is one of the very few if not only PM fund that does hold a very small amount of real gold), up around 40+% in 2016. Gold on the other hand is up around 18% for the year. But both these funds/ETFs are down considerably since summer. I believe TGLDX was up in August 2016 to about 100%, so it has taken a drastic slide since then. GLD is down around 15% in that same time period, August to now. Over the last 10 days, GLD is up around 2% if that is the 'up' you mean.
    I'm just not seeing a clear up trend... yet. And as an investment, IM<HO, gold may be an investment, miners are very, very speculative.
  • Gold
    Today the Sellers/Profit Takers Moved In
    TGLDX
    Quote data as of close 12/29/2016
    NAV Change
    $34.58
    +2.03 (+6.24%)
    Quote data as of close 12/30/2016
    TGLDX TOCQUEVILLE GOLD FUND $33.77 -$0.81 -2.34 %
    52 Week NAV Range $22.25 - $47.92
    @ today's close
    1 Week Change 8.20%
    1 Month Change 0.78%
    3 Month Change -20.63%
  • Trump Throws Monkey Wrench Into REIT Sector
    HERE'S A HANDY CHART Shows most of the points made.This is a weekly feature and nice re-cap of the REIT industry posted on Seeking Alpha by the authors.I've posted it on this site several times.
    image
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/4032479-real-estate-weekly-record-high-home-prices-consumer-confidence-reit-rally-pauses
  • Trump Throws Monkey Wrench Into REIT Sector
    "Donald Trump's election in November further contributed to those trends. The election and his attraction to a stronger dollar have helped spur higher rates ...". This quote has it backwards.
    It's the other way around. Higher rates since the election caused the Dollar to soar against other curriencies. (The author suggests the opposite). And I'm not sure there was any intent on the part of Trump either. Investors, fearing higher inflation if he funds massive infrastructure with debt have reacted predictably by demanding a higher rate of return on money lent. That's why rates have risen since his election. Currency traders, seeing the now higher rates available on U.S. debt have consequently bid the dollar higher against other currencies. Remember, however, the dollar was already sitting at multi-year highs before the election. Even at 1.37% on the 10-year the dollar looked attractive against many other currencies where negative rates had been imposed by central banks desperate to spur growth and inflation. (The Federal Reserve also contributed to higher rates, but the trend was well in place before they acted.)
    As suggested by others, a strong dollar cuts both ways. It makes imported goods cheaper for Americans to buy but harms U.S. exporters by making their products more expensive (and less competitive) abroad. Perhaps missing from the article/discussion is that a strong currency can have deflationary consequences. That's one reason nations around the world have been attempting to weaken their currencies. As for REITS, don't feel too sorry for them. I purchased a small hold in OREAX in early September, 2015. In fewer than 16 months it's up 17.5% - not too shoddy.
  • 2016 Capital Gains Estimates
    So, Mairs & Power might well be the very LAST to pay-out profit to shareholders:
    MPGFX $5.04/share
    MAPOX $1.58
    MSCFX $0.46 cents