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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Fund Focus: Franklin Rising Dividends Fund
    Thanks. Funds that I'd looked at in the past for friends and relatives included Bernstein Short Duration funds (Calif., NY), which were also marketed under Alliance Bernstein (now AB). The AB Advisor shares had similar costs to the Bernstein offerings, while the AB load classes had higher ERs.
    I must not have checked these out for awhile, as they were liquidated about nine months ago. (You probably posted this and I missed it.)
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/832808/000119312517021341/d331564d497.htm
    My experience with all second (or third) tier brokerages is that their service isn't the greatest. When I use any of them, it's for a limited purpose (such as access to lower cost shares).
    Firstrade has an interesting background starting out as a neighborhood brokerage in Flushing, Queens, NYC - with a large Chinese community (somewhat analogous to the Richmond district in San Francisco).
    2007 Press Release
    Invetopedia review/background
  • Future U.S. Equity Returns: A Best-Case Upper Limit
    FYI: The following chart shows the distribution of future return assumptions that state and local pension funds were using to value their liabilities as of February 2017:
    The average expected return was around 7.5%. How can any large fund, much less a pension fund with a conservative mandate, expect to generate such a high return in the current environment? Where exactly would the return come from? Certainly not from anything in the fixed income universe:
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Tax reform; list of companies, bonuses and hourly pay rate increases. Best investment areas?
    Maurice, have you been able to discover the holdings in VGWAX? The Vanguard website shows the 10 largest, which is 14.5% of total. But if one digs for more details Vanguard tells you that this fund has no holdings of bonds or of stocks! Or of cash reserves either.
  • House Panel Backs Bill To Scrap Floating Prices For Money Funds
    "However, SEC mandated reforms were implemented at the time which further restrict the type of investments the retail funds can make. Many (most?) became government-backed money market funds. These changes made the retail funds much less profitable."
    Brokerages and mutual fund companies seem to have done their best to confuse matters. They certainly made it appear as though people were being forced to accept lower returns.
    If you were already investing in a US Treasury fund (e.g. PRTXX) or a US government fund (T. Rowe Price did not have one), nothing changed. If you were invested in a prime fund (i.e. one that could invest in corporate paper and other non-US government securities), things may have changed.
    Financial institutions were reluctant (perhaps prohibited, I'm not sure) to allow you to use a fund that could freeze redemptions as your core/transaction/checking account. So they had two choices - convert their "core" fund offerings from prime to government, or require you to pick a different fund (a government fund) as your core account. They went with door number 1.
    TRP changed Prime Reserve to Government MM (PRRXX), Fidelity changed Cash Reserves to Government Cash Reserves (FDRXX), etc. But T. Rowe Price also did something else. It took its high minimum (higher yielding) retail prime fund, Summit Cash Reserves, lowered its min to $2500 (dropping the "Summit" high min part), and renamed it Cash Reserves (TSCXX). So one still had a prime fund available; arguably a better one than Prime Reserve.
    Here's T. Rowe Price's description of the changes required and what it did:
    https://www4.troweprice.com/mmr/content/dam/money-market/articles/MMF Reform_US_04-12-2016_Update_v2.pdf
    TSCXX wasn't forced to change anything. Here are the portfolio compositions as given in the April 2014 and October 2017 reports.
       Security Type     2014    2017
    Commercial Paper 53% 52%
    Muni Obligations 28% 23%
    Foreign CDs (USD) 7% 5%
    Treasury Notes 6% 9%
    Domestic CDs 5% 3%
    US Treasury Bills 1% 4%
    Other (net) 0% 4%
  • Don’t Chase High Utility Yields
    Back in the old days - like the 1950s through the 1980s - one of the best if not best leading indicators of the stock market was the action of the Dow Jones Utilities Index. Two of the more prominent examples were the peaking of the Utilities in November 1972 and January 1987. I quit following this indicator after 2000 and have no ideal if it still has validity. However, with sentiment indicators at extremes not seen in generations, I would be wary of the stock market.
  • Don’t Chase High Utility Yields
    @Crash: I was wondering if you were still holding on to PNM after regulators rejected the increase. I've got solar panels, so I don't help you much. I pay about $150 per year to them for all my electricity. With sun 300+ days per year, it works nicely :)
  • Don’t Chase High Utility Yields
    I note that my single-stock utility, PNM has "slud" downward badly in 2018, as Dizzy Dean might have expressed it. Before the end of 2017, the company raised its dividend. Third or 4th time since I got in, in Sept. of 2015. The NM regulatory body was not being helpful to shareholders, preferring to adjust a rate agreement already signed-onto by the parties concerned, including the environmentalists. Last 2 days, the stock rose nicely. We've already removed some of our stake with a decent profit, for traveling purposes. I sent them another check 2 days ago. PNM's yield is NOT among the high-fliers in the utility sector. But we are still ahead of the game. I initiated at $25 and change. Today, it's at $37.00.
  • Buy -- Sell -- Ponder -- January 2018
    Hello, @Catch22: The three I've zeroed-in on are: PTIAX, TUHYX and RPIHX, though the latter is "global," not strictly domestic. ...PTIAX is mostly MBS. ... TUHYX is corporate junk. ...RPIHX is corporates, with just a bit of bank loans. What they spit-out and distribute to shareholders right now is considerably higher than the monthly div. from PRSNX.
    I bought (EM) PREMX in 2010, late for the 2009 go-go-full steam ahead party in EM bonds. I bought initially at $13.26, and have never seen PREMX at $13.26 again. But I've reinvested everything, and along the way, I pulled a huge chunk out to re-deploy into a more normal diversified portfolio. PREMX has made serious money for me, despite the share price remaining below my initial purchase-price. I added a bit to it after end-of-year 2017 cap gains and dividends in my other TRP funds. And PREMX has not disastrously imploded on account of the Venezuela holdings.
    ...When share price sinks, yield rises, I understand. I see that PRSNX holds bonds in many cases in places like DEVELOPED Europe, where bonds are yielding less than 1%. I'd like to get more than PRSNX is offering. My timing might be all wrong, but timing the market is a thing I never tried to do. I started investing in 2003, and do not play around much with my portfolio--- though the current portf. is quite different from the way it looked 15 years ago.
    Yield:
    RPIHX 5.78
    TUHYX 4.75 (30-day)
    PTIAX 5.51
    PRSNX 3.41
    I'm not worried at all about finding a bond fund to replace PRSNX which is of a similar sort.
  • Don’t Chase High Utility Yields
    Tax reform package and utility companies......I'd read through some of this article before thinking about a pure utility investment at this time. I recall that Michigan utilities had to submit their plans regarding rates and such going forward yesterday (Jan 19); as to the benefit to customers.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2018/01/11/utility-stocks-and-tax-reform-what-investors-need-to-know/#31c75d554d82
  • Buy -- Sell -- Ponder -- January 2018
    Howdy @Crash
    Have you a yield number from a bond fund which you consider to be high enough, to suit your needs, at this point in the bond(s) investment cycle?
    PRSNX indicates a current 30 day yield of 3.5% and a trailing 12 month yield of 3.41%. The yield is already increasing, yes?
    If one is seeking a 20% yield increase from this fund this would = about a 4.2% yield, a 30% yield increase would = about 4.55% yield. Would these yields satisfy your yield/dividend requirements for a bond fund of this style?
    With a active managed bond fund, one would hope that management would be able to keep the price decline of the fund to the minimum as bond yields increase.
    This would be the trade off for a higher yield at this time, a reduction of pricing for the fund (less value to the investor, but perhaps a wash from a higher yield).
    Regards,
    Catch
  • Consuelo Mack's WealthTrack : Guest Bill Miller: Disruptive Technology Innovations
    FYI: Miller Value Partners’ Bill Miller holds the record for being the only mutual fund manager to beat the market for 15 years in a row. One way he did it is by investing in new technologies that the Wall Street establishment thought were crazy at the time – Amazon, Google, and Facebook among them. His latest “crazy” idea: Bitcoin.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://wealthtrack.com/bill-miller-on-investing-in-disruptive-technologies-including-bitcoin/
    M* Snapshot LGOAX:
    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/LGOAX/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot LOGAX:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/lgoax
    LGOAX Is Ranked #43 In The (MCB) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/mid-cap-blend/miller-opportunity-trust/lgoax
  • Don’t Chase High Utility Yields
    FYI: More than most sectors, utility stocks have felt the sting of rising interest rates.
    While the Standard & Poor’s 500 is up nearly 5% this year, the utilities in the index are down 4.5%, besting only the real estate group, which has lost 5%.
    Still, utilities, which were yielding about 3.6% late last week, remain attractive to income investors. With rates so low, these stocks serve as bond proxies.
    At a time of rising rates and strong economic growth, though, investors are more apt to move from the sector into riskier parts of the market. And higher bond yields pose competition.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.cetusnews.com/business/Don’t-Chase-High-Utility-Yields.B1tqTUeBf.html
  • Buy -- Sell -- Ponder -- January 2018
    Hello.
    This is Old_Skeet’s weekly barometer report for the weekending January 19, 2018.
    Last week I reported that the 500 Index was extermely overbought with a barometer reading of 128. This week the reading is found to be the same at 128 and, with this, the Index remains extremely overbought as scored by the metrics found in the barometer. If the reading should drop much lower it will be off the scale. Generally, a higher barometer reading indicates there is more investment value in the Index over a lower reading.
    For the week short interest for SPY is found to be 1.8 days to cover.
    In review of the 500 Index compass the lead pack remains XLE (energy), XLF (financials) & XLY (consumer discretionary). Within the lead pack my spiff hound remains XLY and has for sometime as the consumer continues to spend. The bogey hound for this compass is EQL.
    In review of the global compass the lead pack consists of GSP (commodities), EEM (emerging markets) & EWJ (Japan). Last week EEM had pulled back a bit but has now regained its momentum and edges out VTI (domestic stocks) for third place. Within the lead pack my spiff hound remains GSP and has for sometime as good demand for commodities continues. The bogey hound for this compass is VT.
    This investment strategy was derived from a betting strategy I used years back at the dog track. The betting strategy was that I’d bet three dogs to either win, place or show during the early to mid races. This strategy provided a number of ways to have a dog (or dogs) be in the money. And, for me, this resulted in some good winnings as I had a prety good system that aided me in picking some good opportunity dogs for a wager.
    Thanks for stopping by and reading.
    I wish all … “Good Investing.”
    Old_Skeet
  • Fund Focus: Franklin Rising Dividends Fund
    VFINX or pretty much any other S&P 500 index fund, no load, 0.14% ER, 1.69% yield. I just don't see any reason for me to own this fund. There are many other dividend-centric funds out there that give you better bang for your buck with the same degree of risk.
  • Buy -- Sell -- Ponder -- January 2018
    2017 was quite a good year. My 2 core funds, my anchors, are still PRWCX and MAPOX. The first is about double the size of the second. Today, I sliced a sliver off PRDSX and added that sliver to PRIDX. The trade will go through on Monday. PRDSX is 6.14% of portf. and PRIDX is 7.71%. I still have just 11% of portf. in foreign stuff. As for bonds, I'm 15% in PREMX and 9% in PRSNX--- STILL. I have not pulled the trigger on PRSNX yet. (Thought I might switch into TUHYX or RPIHX.)
  • Fund Focus: Franklin Rising Dividends Fund
    So let me see. a 5.75% load, a 0.9% ER and a yield of 1.08% No thanks, I think I'll pass.
  • Have you lost confidence in FMIJX/FMIYX, S-T or L-T?
    Very valid points made by all. Maybe "hedge" was the wrong term and misused as BrianW points out.
    I almost feel like adding to FMIJX now or waiting for it to pull-back further, could be trying to catch a "falling knife"; i'm just not sure and maybe way off.
    NO DOUBT 13 months does not a trend make. But if significant under-performance continues for the next year or two and I have not, at least, consider another alternative, am i not doing myself a disservice? I'm not divesting from FMIJX, just reducing it from low-to-mid double-digits to just over 9%. I don't believe that's unreasonable, maybe i'm wrong though.
    As BriansW says FOMO is maybe what is motivating me to branch out. The category is doing very well, but what will happen when the category goes south? Is FMIJX going to be the superhero as in the past? There are concerns as have been previously pointed out, asset bloat, weaker$, etc.
    Lastly, I'm not saying 15.5% absolute return is bad; I would take it EVERY YEAR, but we all know that is a pipe dream. I guess my thoughts are if FMIJX continues to SIGNIFICANTLY under-perform the category, is it not worth a look-see and try to enhance performance while the getting is good?
    Please let me know if I am off-base and/or missing the point! Thx!!!!
  • Parabolic Moves Don't End By Going Sideways
    Interesting comment. Thanks, Ted.
    Parabolic moves in stocks that end in an up spike are rare. Typically, stocks make rounded, distributed tops and spikey bottoms when fear reigns.
    Commodities are usually the opposite, making rounded accumulative bottoms and spikey tops when greed reigns.
    The weekly RSI on the S&P is well above 80. Bear markets don't normally start from that level.
    But we are certainly due for a garden variety 5% correction. In fact, it would be healthy in my view.
  • Have you lost confidence in FMIJX/FMIYX, S-T or L-T?
    If you aren't a purist (Value Investor), may I suggest a simple FOMO checker. I would setup a hypothetical portfolio on Morningstar. I would use Index funds divided equally between Value and Growth. Your decision point is when either becomes 5% out of band. If you have your eye on this Growth fund, buy it when Value is 5% greater (55% of the portfolio). This isn't perfect, but it will keep your emotions in check.
  • Have you lost confidence in FMIJX/FMIYX, S-T or L-T?
    FMIJX returned 15.5% in 2017. I'll take that every single time, thank you!
    Know what you own and why you own it. FMIJX is exactly where one would expect it to be. If you are even looking at 2018 performance--which is to say around 12 trading days so far--you are better off indexing.