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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Portfolio for possible early retirement
    Hi ZoneBlitz!
    You have some great picks. I own VWINX, PONDX, DLTNX. I sold DLTNX a while back but will buy again when this rate thing is over. I will add VWELX.....higher in stocks. But 30% stocks might not be enough in the long run. Also, I will say PTIAX is also very good. Maybe drop small amount in the S&P 500.
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • Portfolio for possible early retirement
    The overall expense ratio for the entire portfolio was .51%. Thanks again for your help
  • Portfolio for possible early retirement
    SCHD is a good choice. Super low ER.
    Another option are income funds. In particular, multi Asset Income funds. They give the manager a wider scope to find income sources wherever they may be. I know TRowe Price has a few in their stable as well as Fidelity and Vanguard. Since I use American Century, I use AMJVX. It could be prudent to not depend on one single fund for this purpose but to have two or three.
    Thanks! I was just playing around with numbers and came up with this. Morningstar's X-ray claims that expense ratio is just .51% and the portfolio yields over 4%. Going to research these funds a bit further. Thanks again.
     
    Vanguard Wellesley®
    Allocation--30% to 50% Equity - 31.25%
     
    Principal Global Div
    Allocation--30% to 50% Equity - 18.75%
     
    Invesco Income Alloc
    Allocation--30% to 50% Equity - 18.75%
     
    DoubleLine Total Ret
    Intermediate-Term Bond - 12.50 %
     
    PIMCO Income D - 12.50%
    Multisector Bond
     
    Schwab US Dividend E - 6.25%
    Large Value
  • Portfolio for possible early retirement
    Hello,
    Due to some medical issues I may be forced to find ways to generate income. I have read this forum for some time and think the members here are top notch. I've managed my own investments for about 15 years and consider myself pretty knowledgeable. However, truth be told, I'm no expert with bonds or bond funds.
    I have sought out the advise of a financial advisor and one consultant from a major discount brokerage. Both had very different opinions. The financial advisor recommended a basket of American Funds. The consultant recommended several ETF's, like BAB and high yield mutual funds. ( The actual recommended portfolio only had 18% dividend paying stocks)
    Most of the assets are in a taxable account. But, I guess, I can't allow the possible tax ramifications to dictate every investment decision.
    I'm thinking of funds like:
    VWINX
    PONDX
    SCHD
    DLTNX
    High yield bond ?
    Short term ?
    Trying to generate around 4% yield with around 30% in high quality stocks, if possible. I know that interest will likely keep going higher and this could cause serious issues with the bond portion.
    I would absolutely love to hear the thoughts and opinions from forum members. Thanks in advance
  • Seafarer Overseas Value Fund now available
    @AndyJ, I am investing with Andrew Foster's fund but not this new EM value fund. For now it is too new for me and I prefer the Seafarer Oversea Growth and Income fund. Mr. Foster track record goes back to the days of Matthew Asia Growth & Income fund.
    If you wish to invest in the institutional shares, Seafarer makes it possible for retail investors with a minimum of $1,500 with an automatic investment of $100 (minimum). So you really don't need $25K as the minimum. Also you can transfer additional IRA fund from other brokerages to Seafarer if you wish. Andrew Foster is one of the few fund manager I follow for many years.
  • Managed Futures Funds Gaining Traction Among Advisers
    Wow! A manager of a managed-futures fund produces a survey which might spark interest in its fund... Yeah, no conflict of interest there...
    Altegris' managed-futures fund (EVONX) is rated 5-star by M*, meaning it has among the best historical records in the managed-futures category. But let's take a look at that record. It commenced operating late 2011. So full year returns as follows:
    2012...(3.17)
    2013....0.67
    2014...25.92
    2015....3.02
    2016...(-0.33) [through 12/16/16]
    The above returns are net of 1.94% expenses (ouch!)
    My reaction? "meh". One "super" year. 4 X "ehh" years. The sequencing/size of the returns almost looks like one might "earn" at one of the gaming tables in Vegas. Makes one wonder what the 3-star rated fund returns look like in this category...
    Others may be interested, not I. When considering alternatives, I am looking for something that delivers mostly consistent, positive returns. I'm not looking for outsized returns, but consistent (-positive) ones. If an 'alternative' vehicle can't do that, well, there is fixed-income for ballast & income & equities for growth (with risk). In fact, old, reliable Vanguard Wellesley delivers more consistent, positive returns, thus a "smoother ride", and larger 5-year trlg returns.
    p.s. - looks like Gundlach is one of the managers.
  • Holiday Greetings From Roy Weitz
    @Archaic, Outstanding insight, and I fully agree !! I am a better saver and investor, and financially wealthier thanks to Roy (and of course Ted, the resident Linkster )!
    I always tell my beloved wife and loving mother of our seven children that there is only one thing worse than being old, and that is being old and poor. Statistically I will die before she will, and I don't want to see her live her last days in poverty. Granted, wealth does not ensure happiness, but maybe ...
    Money Can Buy Happiness
    Kevin
  • After Rate Hike, Low-Volatility Funds Fall Short
    Au contraire !!
    About one week after the election, we shifted funds to XSLV, which has worked over the past month and since inception. XMLV has not done as well in the short-term, but still has performed well since inception.
    CHART
    Kevin
  • The Closing Bell: Stock Market Gains Evaporate After China Seizes U.S. Underwater Drone
    @Anna, After January 20th 2017,Who knows?
    China state newspaper warns Donald Trump over Taiwan:
    'Pride comes before a fall'
    A Chinese state-run newspaper has launched an unprecedented attack on Donald Trump
    “The calculating businessman might feel shrewd about seizing China's fate by the throat through the Taiwan question,” the piece read. “However, the truth is this inexperienced President-elect probably has no knowledge of what he's talking about.”
    “He has overestimated the US's capability of dominating the world and fails to understand the limitation of US powers in the current era...China is now confident enough to arm-wrestle with the US."imageChina flies nuclear bomber over South China Sea as a 'message' to Donald Trump
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/china-bomber-flight-send-message-donald-trump-taiwan-a7468021.html
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/china-state-newspaper-donald-trump-taiwan-one-china-policy-a7471326.html
    More Trump Repercussions in Today's MarketFrom Seeking Alpha
    A dark shadow has crossed over parts of the retail sector as more analysts weigh in on the negative impact of a border tax adjustment on goods sourced from outside the U.S. The GOP and President-elect Trump are expected to agree to support some form of border adjustments.
    The border tax could be especially difficult for apparel and footweat companies to overcome.
    The border tax could be especially difficult for apparel and footweat companies to overcome.
    Retail stocks that trade weak today amid the discussion include Deckers Outdoor (DECK -6.6%), Fossil (FOSL -5.7%), Coach(COH -3.1%), Iconix Brand Group (ICON -2.9%), Ralph Lauren (RL -2.5%), Wolverine World Wide (WWW -2.3%), Lululemon .....
    http://seekingalpha.com/news/3231209-concerns-border-tax-whack-retail-names
  • Lower Cost Index Funds do not always outperform?
    All Indexes are Not Created Equal - a three paragraph article showing how large a difference index selection can make. Two small cap value index funds, two different indexes, large recent divergence.
    I've included below the 1 year graph from the article, comparing IWN (Russell 2000 Value index ETF) with VBR (CRSP Small Cap Value index ETF). Performance values are for NAV. Over the past year, the performance difference was about 7%.
    This shows how much of a difference index selection can make.
    The funds themselves outperformed their indexes (NAV) before fees. The Vanguard fund came in 5 basis points below benchmark, but with an ER of 8 basis points (3 basis points above benchmark before fees). The iShares fund did even better: 15 basis points above benchmark before fees of 0.25%.
    image
  • The Closing Bell: Stock Market Gains Evaporate After China Seizes U.S. Underwater Drone
    FYI: U.S. stocks traded lower Friday, with the Dow industrials swinging to a loss following reports that a Chinese warship seized an underwater U.S. Navy drone in international waters off the coast of the Philippines.
    Even as the Dow was curtailed from its advance to the psychologically important 20,000 level, the blue-chip average is still on track for its longest weekly winning streak, at six, in more than a year.
    Regards,
    Ted
    Bloomberg:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-15/dollar-solidifies-its-climb-on-fed-outlook-as-japan-futures-rise
    Reuters:
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-idUSKBN1451N9
    MarketWatch:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-set-to-edge-closer-to-20000-even-as-other-markets-take-a-breather-2016-12-16/print
    USA Today:
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2016/12/16/asian-shares-muted-dollar-climbs-rate-outlook-sinks/95508208/
    IBD:
    http://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-backs-away-from-20000-oil-rises-alexion-gets-a-big-bounce//
    CNBC:
    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/16/stocks-open-higher-as-traders-eye-us-dollar.html
    AP:
    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/F/FINANCIAL_MARKETS?SITE=AP
    WSJ Markets At A Glance:
    http://markets.wsj.com/us
    Sector Tracker:
    http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
    Bloomberg Sector Performance Pie Chart:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/sectors
    Current Futures: Negative
    http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
  • Seafarer Overseas Value Fund now available
    LOL. @VintageFreak: PRIJX (TRP) ...A very young fund, going back to Sept, 2015.

    Now you are talking. You guessed I asked the question because I wanted a place where I could buy without load and at brokerage. I do have an account with TRP and this seems like a good option to research.
    Thanks much.
    Let us know what you find!
  • Consuelo Mack's WealthTrack Preview: Guest: François Trahan, Co-Founder, Partner Cornerstone Macro
    FYI:
    Regards,
    Ted
    December 15, 2016
    Preview Clip:

    Dear WEALTHTRACK Subscriber,
    The U.S. has been the place to be for investors this year, even more so after the election of Donald Trump as President. Since November 8th, U.S. stock markets have been on a tear, reaching new records and extending their lead over international markets by a substantial margin.
    As a recent Wall Street Journal headline put it: “The global dominance of U.S. stocks has been boosted by the post-election rally”, as well as the strength of the U.S. dollar, which has also been appreciating rapidly against other currencies. It hit a 14 year high Thursday against a basket of currencies. The market capitalization of U.S. stocks reached over $25 trillion in December, comprising more than 40% of the world’s stock market value, levels not seen since 2006.
    No other country comes even close. Despite rapid gains in China’s stock market size and value, it still has less than a 10% share of global market value.
    With low unemployment, corporate profits expected to pick up and stimulus anticipated from infrastructure spending, corporate tax cuts and regulatory roll backs more investors are jumping on the bullish bandwagon. Even the Federal Reserve acknowledges that economic conditions have improved significantly enough to allow it to boost interest rates this week, for only the second time in a decade. The way things are going, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen expects to raise interest rates another three times next year, in 25 basis points, or a quarter of a percentage point increments.
    Improving conditions and this positive outlook are why the message from this week’s guest is such a stunner.
    In a WEALTHTRACK exclusive, Wall Street’s top ranked investment strategist is saying it’s time to put on the brakes and get much more defensive!
    He is François Trahan, Co-Founder, Partner and head of the Portfolio Strategy team at Cornerstone Macro, an independent macro research, policy and strategy firm he and his partners launched in 2013.
    Trahan was recently inducted into the All-America Research Team Hall of Fame by Institutional Investor magazine, having been ranked the number one portfolio strategist for 10 of the past 11 years by institutional investors.
    Up until recently Trahan was correctly bullish on the US stock market, as he has been for well over a year.
    No more. He is adamantly telling clients that this rally should be sold. He will explain what has changed.
    If you’d like to see the show before it airs, it is available to our PREMIUM subscribers right now. We also have an EXTRA interview with Trahan about what he describes as investing’s great mystery. Intrigued?
    Plus, WEALTHTRACK is available on a YouTube Channel. So if you are unable to join us for the show on television, you can watch it on our website, WealthTrack.com, or by subscribing to our YouTube Channel.
    Thanks for watching! Have a great weekend and make the week ahead a profitable and a productive one.
    Best regards,
    Consuelo
  • 2016 Capital Gains Estimates
    I also looked. Rainer hasn't even posted its 2015 dividends. See, e.g.
    http://rainierfunds.com/Strategies/SmallMidCapPortfolio/Pages/DistributionHistoryOriginal.aspx
    They'll know at closing today because they distribute on or about the 15th. Again, see link above for historical distribution dates, except for the 12/15/2015 distribution, which Morningstar gives you here.
    The figures Rainer is talking about won't be estimates but exact numbers after the funds close on their record date.
  • Investors Toast A Renaissance For Active Stock Managers
    FYI: Is active management poised to make a comeback?
    Increasingly shunned by investors in favor of so-called passive strategies, active management—where the holdings of a portfolio are chosen by an individual, rather than being pegged to a benchmark, as with passive—seems to be having a shining moment, if not increased usage.
    According to a survey by Natixis Global Asset Management released this week, a majority of institutional investors said they favored active management over passive in the current environment, with 73% saying the market environment would likely be favorable to the strategy. This matches other recent forecasts. Earlier this month, Candace Browning, the head of B.of A. Merrill Lynch Global Research, wrote that “2017 could be the year of the active investor.”
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-see-renaissance-for-active-stock-managers-2016-12-15/print
  • Lower Cost Index Funds do not always outperform?
    Of course Vanguard plays games. They all do, the question is which games and how well they play them. For example, Vanguard lends securities. A few, not all. And I believe that Vanguard plows all the earnings from that practice back into the funds, as opposed to some other managers who take a cut.
    https://advisors.vanguard.com/iwe/pdf/Sec_lending.pdf (Vanguard practices)
    https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/icrsl.pdf (variations with risks and benefits)
    Then there's sampling. Usually full replication is used for S&P 500, but sampling is often used for funds that include smaller cap stocks. Both POMIX and VTSMX use sampling. Different managers, different samples.
    Then there's the question of which index they track. Even if over time two indexes for the same market segment do about the same, there can be a fair amount of difference from year to year. POMIX and VTSMX track different indexes.
    Then there's the question of timing. Some families have rigid rules about when they must add/drop securities from their portfolios. Others are a bit more flexible, which allows for slightly better (or worse, if poorly executed) performance, but at the expense of slightly greater tracking errors. (This is a feature I checked years ago; I don't know if some funds still allow greater leeway.)
    Then there are quirky attributes. Most funds immediately put the cash they receive from portfolio dividends to work. But SPY is prohibited from doing this because it is a unit investment trust. The fund must hold the cash; it's only when the cash dividends are distributed and you buy more shares through your broker's reinvestment program that this money gets put to work (quarterly).
    I vaguely recall an S&P 500 fund many years ago (Safeco? Transamerica? X??) that said it tracked 499 stocks, excluding its own. Index funds are not necessarily the simple vehicles people expect.
    Lots of reasons why the performance of index funds diverge - from each other and from their theoretical returns (index return less expenses).
  • Lower Cost Index Funds do not always outperform?
    JohnChisum is correct...we do not invest in index funds to beat the market. True index funds are designed to mirror the returns of their benchmark, minus their expense ratios. Some funds will, by design, employ some special sauce to enhance their returns compared to their benchmark. A quick look at true S&P 500 index funds gives me these numbers YTD:
    S&P 500 12.60
    SPY 12.44
    SWPPX 12.45
    VFINX 12.46
    VOO 12.56
    Darned close to what we would expect from pure index funds.
  • Lower Cost Index Funds do not always outperform?
    T. Rowe Price index mutual funds verses a comparable Vanguard index mutual fund with the closest minimum investment required as of 12/12/16.
    Expense Ratios:
    POMIX=.33% vs VTSMX=.16% Total Market
    PREIX=.27% vs VFINX=.16% S&P 500
    PEXMX=.38% vs VEXMX=.22% Extended Market
    POMIX vs VTSMX
    YTD
    13.59 - 13.43
    1Y
    15.39 - 15.28
    3Y
    10.13 - 10.11
    5Y
    15.16 - 15.06
    10Y
    7.17 - 7.24
    15Y
    7.28 - 7.37
    PREIX vs VFINX
    YTD
    12.50 - 12.62
    1Y
    14.35 - 14.48
    3Y
    10.35 - 10.47
    5Y
    14.94 - 15.07
    10Y
    6.83 - 6.96
    15Y
    6.55 - 6.69
    PEXMX vs VEXMX
    YTD
    17.17 - 17.18
    1Y
    18.87 - 18.93
    3Y
    8.58 - 8.50
    5Y
    15.22 - 14.99
    10Y
    7.96 - 7.86
    15Y
    9.52 - 9.45
    The difference in expense ratios does make a bit of a difference, but surprisingly, not in all cases. The TRP index funds tend to hold more cash than VG index funds and their expense ratios are higher, but still manage to outperform their comparable VG index fund during certain time periods...especially the total market and extended market funds.
    Any thoughts as to why?
  • Dow Jones Thousand Point Thresholds
    Dow 20,000
    Posted on December 12, 2016 by Bob Fleming
    Acropolis Investment Management Insights
    ...part of the reason that it’s doing so well this year (16.4 percent, vs. 12.9 percent for the S&P 500) is that it is heavy in industrial and financial stocks, and underweight in technology stocks – a near perfect combination for the Trump bump.
    I’m not making a prediction, but if the DJIA grows by 7.7 percent over the next ten years (which is how much it grew over the last 10 years), we’ll be looking at Dow 43,000.
    http://acrinv.com/dow-20000/
  • Seafarer Overseas Value Fund now available
    Interesting observation about "Total". Seems to be correct, though there are only four EM funds with "Total" in their name.
    Of the 85 non-index funds of any type with "Total" in their name, only 15 are in a broad sense balanced (at least 10% bond and at least 10% US or 10% foreign stock). Four are the EM funds, one is a large cap fund (DHDIX), six are "true" domestic allocation funds, one (MFSRX) is a "true" world allocation fund, and three are multi-alternative funds.
    What is distinctive about the Blackrock fund (BEEIX) is not so much that it's balanced, as its use of derivatives. 111% long in equity (net 54%), 62% bond, and 38% long in cash (net -17%). Not your typical "Total" fund. More like the multi-alternative funds that just happen to include bonds in their toolbox.