If Yardeni (or the street consensus) is right, market is trading at about 19 times 2022 earnings. What do I know, but with interest rates set at zero through 2023, that doesn't seem crazy to me.

Ok, @hank, done :) I may have to change back depending on how the Bills start the season.

+1 @MikeM

@hank Thanks. After my ex-federal-colleagues were hit with the mandatory SS tax deferral and subsequent pay back, I admit I sanity checked to make sure that I wouldn't have to take two RMDs in 2021. Some people thought the SS deferral was the same as Obama had done and would be covered from the general fund. I almost got paranoid enough to go ahead and RMD this year. We pay a lot of marginal tax on our RMDs as it is without two in one tax year.

1) I look for funds that don't own the Behemoths: Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google. And Big Pharma. Then there's private, for-profit prison outfits. Nukes. Armaments. Tobacco. Gambling. Also, the companies whose technologies are assisting Israel to screw the Palestinians. Israeli companies, for the time being, too. Because they don't deserve my money.
2) None of those exist. So, I take solace, knowing that I've seriously reduced my equity holdings by now, to just over one-third of my portfolio.

There are now more than 10,000 US funds (OEFs, ETFs, CEFs). 10,007 to be precise. That excludes Insurance Funds, which number 2,107. Add in all share classes and the number explodes to 32,094.
Here's the breakout ...
https://www.member.mfopremium.com/2020/09/16/an-overkill-of-funds-in-august-mfo-ratings-update/

+1.

Since that awful time in March, I've never used MultiSearch and Portfolios tools more.
I find myself setting the Display to periods before March (like Trump Bump, Obama Bull, GFC Bull), to see which funds performed best in last bull market.
I'll also set Ferguson ratings, looking for that sweet-spot Brad defined of performance and consistency.
As well as Alpha and Tracking Error ratings (thank you Michael).
I'll save the resulting funds (symbols) to a Watchlist, then run them across current cycle or YTD to see how bad the damage could be ... and if they're old enough, across GFC Bear. Similarly, across December 2018 Selloff and Normalization (of interest rates) periods.
c

Here’s Yardeni’s optimistic view: https://www.yardeni.com/pub/yriearningsforecast.pdf
It’s also interesting to look at the estimated sector earnings here: https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/additional-material/sp-500-eps-est.xlsx?force_download=true
Seems to me the stock & bond markets can be totally divorced from Main Street. Certainly now that there is always the Fed put. Which is to Sa the Fed will always stop the markets from falling. Years ago I believed folk like David Stockman who said a day of reckoning was coming. Now I’m more inclined to believe FD1K.

5.9% is not unusual as a top 10 holdings and often that is without the limits set forth in the prospectus. When it gets over 10%, the managers better has a lots of conviction that the stock will go up. Just keep watching to see if the manager will trim the position if Amazon continues to climb. Focus or concentrated funds often have the top 10 holdings that constitute over 50% of the funds.

Numerous southern hemisphere countries are reporting record low cases of influenza in their winter, perhaps due to masking, hand washing, social distancing, etc.
https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/07/24/coronavirus-restrictions
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/09/12/the-southern-hemisphere-skipped-flu-season-in-2020

“RMDs are waived for 2020, which means they are effectively canceled. You do not have to receive two RMDs in 2021. This is true even if 2020 is your first RMD year and, therefore, not required until April 1, 2021. If 2020 is your first RMD year, the first RMD you have to take will be for your second RMD year (2021) and is due December 31, 2021.”
Old news I thought worth repeating. Good to know you only need to take 1 RMD next year.
https://www.fedweek.com/fedweek/tsp-expands-guidance-on-required-minimum-withdrawal-suspension/

I’d be more inclined to sell rather than buy today. Haven’t yet set aside my anticipated 2021 distribution, which is my my preferred method. Normally, that $$, or a large portion would be parked in cash by now. That omission is mainly because I don’t know how much, if any, will be spent on travel next year. Without travel (and any big ticket items) the pension and SS are pretty much adequate. Of course, RMD will need to be taken in ‘21. But with close to 70% under a Roth, RMDs on the remaining aren’t too large.
Remain a bit underweight on cash. What I look for for short term speculation are funds that appear well managed and invested in things that are badly beaten down and appear to have good upside potential. My math isn’t so great. But I’d think if you dumped $$ Into an equity fund that’s off 50% or more over the past year and it bounced to “only“ being down 25% in short order, you’d have pocketed a quick 25% gain - even though the fund is still underwater. I’m always on the lookout for such opportunities. Sparse pickings at present.
I’m not seeing “dark shadows on the ceiling”, but do feel somewhat mesmerized by all that’s happening both politically and on the monetary end (Fed policy). Hard to get a solid bearing. But even without all that extraneous stuff going on, election years tend to favor equities. A motto of sort: “When in doubt, do nothing.“ So currently just a lot of sitting and looking. Where might someone go hunting if eager to buy? A lot of the foreign developed markets and EM have lagged the U.S. over the past decade.

No contrarians? by the time it hits the NYT or Marketwatch, I have never made any money.
I generally agree that this will go on a long time but I think there will be far better prices in the next few months. The market is priced for perfection and assumes 1) the Fed will keep pumping money in 2) there will be a perfectly effective vaccine by late fall and everyone will take it 3) things will return to normal next spring, and SP500 earnings with it 3) There will be a split Congress and the election results will be available soon after the election 4) no inflation
Some of these are mutually exclusive or at least contrary to each other.
When there is another 10 to 15% dip you will need to know if that is just the first shot of a long war. a lot of things may get much cheaper
I think we are at least a year away from solving Covid and maybe longer. Look a the inability of most people to accept minor restrictions. A vaccine that is almost 100% effective is the only thing that will solve that. It will be difficult to determine that without vaccination millions and seeing who gets infected.
If Trump really refuses to concede or if the Democrats win everything things will really tank.

@Baseball_Fan
I'm mainly a bond fund trader who uses momentum and usually 2-3 funds but several times annually I trade stocks/ETF/whatever for hours-days when I think I have a good chance to make money. I don't invest in alternative funds because most/all don't have long term reliable risk/reward. My goals at retirement are very specific based on a need of just 4% annually including inflation for the next several decades: make 6+% annually + never lose more than 3% from any last top. I did much better since retirement in 2018. Any time I feel risk is elevated I just sell a big % of my portfolio.
ADVNX is doing very well year-to-date (rated at M* in the top 4% for Multi sector funds) but management changed on 2/21/2020 so you can't rely on previous risk/reward.

"Snowflake SNOW, , the cloud software company backed by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway BRK.B, 0.91%, goes public in a hotly demanded initial public offering. Snowflake priced its IPO at $120, after initially seeking as little as $75 per share. Also on the IPO front, Israeli software company JFrog priced its initial public offering at $44, above its $39 to $41 price range.
Derf

Howdy folks,
Well, hell is here to stay for a while so we might as well deal with it. By this point, I can't imagine that everyone has a least some cash on hand and is itching to get into the game. I am NOT buying but making a list of things to watch and perhaps nibble on if they go on sale. For those more adventurous, you can DCA. feh.
So, in all fairness, we're looking at a virtual economy for several years. Perhaps not until well into 2024. Many of the traditional face to face interactions of life are never coming back. All these attempts at reopening and face to face anything are one by one exploding. Oh, and the flu season is approaching and it's getting colder so folks are headed indoors. Really.
So. The shut down darlings are going to continue to be the winners. Amazon, Google, Netflix, Zoom. Rural real estate. Lumber and building supplies. Survival basic materials.
Same with the losers. The existing losers are going to continue to lose. Airlines, cruise lines, casinos, resorts, hotels, tourism, travel, shopping malls, urban office space, etc.
What else? What am I missing? What if everything shuts down this coming winter? If things really get bad? Geez, even in 1919 it was worse than 1918 and we're repeating history . . . or denying it. Regardless, winter looks rather bleak.
We did send in our passports to be renewed. Gaslight city!!!
and so it goes,
peace and wear the damn mask,
rono

Howdy folks,
I too dread the 2nd wave. We've learned a lot and come a long way but still not practicing safety in sufficient quarters. The kids have been locked up all summer and now they're back in school and being kids. All age levels with college probably being the worse. Throw in an attempt at high school and college contact sports. Face to face schooling is going to be nigh impossible. Switch over to main street and the gyms and restaurants are all trying to open up for indoor operations as we approach fall and winter. The President is telling his supporters it will all go away they shouldn't wear a mask and the vaccine is on the way . . . and there are enough that believe him that the entire country is well and truly screwed.
It's shaping up to be a hibernation winter.
As for more positive news, we're now able to put better time parameters on this pandemic and it's lingering effects. Vaccines will probably start rolling out after the first of the year. The first ones will be so-so effective but the subsequent vaccines will get better. Vaccine development will be a dynamic process perhaps taking years. Throw in the fact that between the anti-vaxers and those that are doubting the 'warp speed' virus's safety and efficacy, and we won't see any sort of vaccination relief until the fall of 2021 at the earliest and perhaps until 2022. This is also when they might have better luck with face to face schooling.
With all this cheery news, and while we have not yet booked, I'm tentatively looking at a Med cruise for spring of 2022. Indeed, we just sent in our passports to be renewed.
and so it goes,
peace and wear the damn mask,
rono the optimist

Looking at CVSIX (Calamos Market Neutral), the last negative calendar year it had was 2008. The downside is that its 10 year annual return is just over 4%. Maybe a nice Bond fund substitute? It does its job quietly.