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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Defensive fund options
    @FD1000...I hold a six figure + position in IQDAX...they do post a risk profile on their website from late June...kinda gives you an idea of how the fund would react dependent on vol, crude, fx, etc, but still there is a "black boxey" element to it and it makes me a tad uncomfortable to invest more...who knows what you really own there and what kind of down day out of the ordinary could happen?
    I saw you mentioning ADVNX, North Square Strat Income on the other board...interesting fund...curious if you have follow on thoughts about that one?
    How do you feel about investing in funds that are not simply, stock and bond holdings? Do you limit to part of your portfolio or to what level of assets would you be comfortable investing to?
    Best regards to all,
    Baseball_Fan
    (sure would be entertaining to see a White Sox vs Padres World Series!)
  • Defensive fund options

    My goal for this part of my portfolio is to reduce risk and perhaps start to replace some of my vulnerable bond funds and low vol. equity funds. I already added SWAN (which seemed to perform in the mid range of this group), and looking seriously now to pair it with one of the alt. mutuals. I’m still intrigued by David’s TMSRX write up, but ARBIX and IQDAX look good as well.
    My choice would be ARBIX. I like its risk/reward, the chart looks better without drastic up/down days and consistency. Also check PV(numbers). It has the best performance, SD, Sharpe, Sortino.
  • Upside-Down Markets: Profits, Inflation and Equity Valuation in Fiscal Policy Regimes
    @FD1000 Your comment puzzles me. The section of Jessie Livermore's commentary that discusses equity market valuations is fairly bullish. It provides support to the TINA perspective and to a gradual rise in the P/E ratio in the current investing environment. (However, the author does appear to be certain a problem will arise if the P/E ratio eventually approaches infinity!) Your copy and paste list appears to be a carpet bombing attack focused on bearish perspectives. It's not clear how it relates to his comments.
    By the way, its my sense you invest as a market technician. Old_Skeet frequently posted comments that provided technical insights relating to stock market conditions. Junkster occasionally offered his technical insights related to bond market conditions. Your posts related to bond fund investing have had a technician's perspective. Hopefully, there will be more of those posts to come.....
    In the last several years and especially in the last several months I have heard so many bearish stories and why I made my comment. Most investors shouldn't try to time the market and/or make big changes. My comment included several "experts" to show that even they can't predict the market.
    Sure, stocks PE is high and bond yield is low but the long term concepts of investing for most investors should stay about the same.
    I'm mostly a bond trader with very specific goals according to our needs: we need just 4% (including inflation) for decades to come to keep our current lifestyle, with that in mind I want to make 6+% average annually + never lose more than 3% from any last top. The trades involve technical aspect but others things such as VIX and my generic perception of current risk/reward. When I trade stocks/ETF/CEFs/GLD/other is usually hours to days and involve mostly technical analysis and/or when I see screaming buy opportunities (I had several in 03/2020)
  • Upside-Down Markets: Profits, Inflation and Equity Valuation in Fiscal Policy Regimes
    @FD1000 Your comment puzzles me. The section of Jessie Livermore's commentary that discusses equity market valuations is fairly bullish. It provides support to the TINA perspective and to a gradual rise in the P/E ratio in the current investing environment. (However, the author does appear to be certain a problem will arise if the P/E ratio eventually approaches infinity!) Your copy and paste list appears to be a carpet bombing attack focused on bearish perspectives. It's not clear how it relates to his comments.
    By the way, its my sense you invest as a market technician. Old_Skeet frequently posted comments that provided technical insights relating to stock market conditions. Junkster occasionally offered his technical insights related to bond market conditions. Your posts related to bond fund investing have had a technician's perspective. Hopefully, there will be more of those posts to come.....
  • The stock market is detached from economic reality. A reckoning is coming.
    Is consumer spending still 70% of our GNP? We know who owns the assets. I wonder who does the buying.
    I don't see any problem with having a plan to take profits and rebalance according to your situation and comfort level. That may not involve predictions. But it does mean selling from time to time. And doesn't that involve the estimation that while I could make more, I am happy with what I have made so far?
    .............Sounds similar to the way I'm operating, these days. Simple portfolio, not many changes to be made---- because I did my homework. The one slightly disappointing aspect these days: RPSIX. Dependable, extremely diversified, bond-wise. A TRP fund full of other TRP bond funds, with a small slice of equities. That equity portion makes it a bit unique, I suppose. Might help add to profits, most years, yes? ...But the monthlies have been getting disappointing. Not awful, just going lower in dribs and drabs. So, I've searched and searched TRP for a different bond fund that's worth anything. (Apart from tax-free, specific-State funds. I've even looked at some of them, too: NJ and VA.) But there's no tax-free advantage for us. TRP is really not a bond shop. I just don't want to go starting brokerage accounts that I've never needed, ever before. ...The other bond funds in our stable: PRSNX, PTIAX. That PRSNX is our 3rd-largest holding, at 21%. RPSIX is number two. (Anyone else notice that a few months ago, PTIAX moved their monthly pay-out date to the MIDDLE of the month??? They must have received too many complaints. Performance is rather GOOD, but they play the game about vested shares and "pending" shares. Screw THAT. I told them I don't want to hear about "pending" shares. My money is green and very real. And they take it automatically from my account, monthly. The withdrawal from my account is never shown as "pending."
    ... I'm on a rant, so, get on with it... Once, speaking to a "Supervisor," I asked him: "why are there "pending" shares in the first place? Is it because you have too few people hired to do the record-keeping in a TIMELY manner?" And the phone went dead. Until I broke the silence, and said: "Alright, then. THAT'S clear." Good fund. But that whole business sucks dooky from shrews.
    https://animals.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Shrew-2-650x425.jpg
  • 2/nd wave of C-19
    Thank you. I read that teenager's brain are not fully developed until they reach 25 years old. So it is not surprising they would engage in large gatherings while most likely not wearing face covering. Not sure the administrators are aware of this. They are under a great deal of financial pressure to reopen the schools.
    University setting in lecture halls with > 100 students and in dorms are very challenging to practice social distancing effectively. For those who are in physical science and engineering are having hard time taking their laboratory classes. And there is no good substitute for hands-on learning.
    However, several countries including New Zealand, Taiwan, and Singapore are in much better situation where they have reopened their schools. Their death tolls is very small comparing to that of US.
  • The stock market is detached from economic reality. A reckoning is coming.
    Tend to agree with FD1000 and MJG to the extent that I think one shouldn’t make significant changes in their investing approach (ie: running to cash, loading up on gold, buying treasuries) based on such prophesies as “A reckoning is coming“. I sometimes post such articles as Mark here, but I like to add a disclaimer saying this is for discussion purposes and “not necessarily my own opinion.” Without that, some may interpret the post as some kind of personal financial advice. Just my 2-cents.
    There’s always a reckoning coming. Greenspan spoke of irrational exuberance” in ‘96.
    Vanguard sent out letters cautioning its investors that “trees don’t grow to the sky” in the late 90s. President GWB in ‘08 warned of “ ... a depression greater than the Great Depression.” Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, John Hussman. And so it goes. Bottom line: I want to make money. Not a lot. But a sum substantially greater than the meager returns available on cash. So, I’ll stay the course, ride the markets thru a diversified portfolio, go with the flow .... Maybe “tilt” this way or that for good reason - but no major changes based on the dozens of daily prophesies - often from writers who know less about it than you or I do.
  • "Off-Topic" previously "Off Limits"... now "back in service".
    +1 old joe AEI shill looking for any excuse to still vote for Trump!
  • Donald J. Easley is leaving T. Rowe Price Diversified Mid-Cap Growth Fund
    From the article:
    ...The Diversified Mid Cap Growth fund is ranked 60 out of 163 Mid-Cap Growth funds...
    The larger Mid-Cap Growth fund is ranked 116 in the same category, having returned 47.5% over the same period.
    Probably to boost performance on a larger fund.
  • Donald J. Easley is leaving T. Rowe Price Diversified Mid-Cap Growth Fund
    New Fund (RPMGX) has about $34B AUM. Old fund (PRDMX) has about $2B AUM, and has outperformed the larger fund most recently, and over the last 1, 3 and 5 years.
    Last 1 year: PRDMX @ 15%, RPMGX @ 10%
    Last 3 yrs_: PRDMX @ 16%, RPMGX @ 13%
    Last 5 yrs_: PRDMX @ 14%, RPMGX @ 13%
    Guessing this is a promotion.
    http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=PRDMX
    http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=RPMGX
  • Upside-Down Markets: Profits, Inflation and Equity Valuation in Fiscal Policy Regimes
    Unfortunately I have to post it again
    No. It wasn't necessary at all. We heard you the first time.
    Farmers talk about the weather. Investors talk about the market.
  • The stock market is detached from economic reality. A reckoning is coming.
    @FD1000 OK, ya. But the implication is that all the reports and statistics made public every week, month and year are meaningless. Some of those reported numbers come from private sources, some come from gummint. So: untrustworthy numbers. Untrustworthy gummint. No matter which Party is in control. That's a REAL problem. Yes, it's been going on for decades, maybe back into my teens. Hell, the gummint lied about how many North Vietnamese and Cong were killed each day, on the tv news. I saw something long ago that said if there was simply a blood-trail found, it counted as a casualty. But the "officialized deceit" has been raised and compounded exponentially. It must be admitted that the '08-'09 Crash was a watershed. And the beat goes on. Louder and louder. It's getting almost to the point of "alternative facts." (wink, wink.) And I belong to one of the two major Parties here where I live, only because the Primary is a "closed" one. https://howiehawkins.us/
    https://berniesanders.com/
  • Upside-Down Markets: Profits, Inflation and Equity Valuation in Fiscal Policy Regimes
    Unfortunately I have to post it again
    Over the years we heard the following:
    1) US stocks are over value, the rest of the world is undervalue. US stocks did better in the last 10 years.
    2) The GMO team and Arnott have been wrong for 10 years.
    3) Gundlach was way wrong when he predicted the 10 year will be at 6% in 2021
    4) Bogle was wrong when he predicted stocks/bonds performance based on the past and averages.
    5) Inflation and interest rates can only go up. Both wrong for years.
    6) inverted yield signals recession = wrong. High PE, PE10 signal the end of the bull market...wrong again for years.
    7) There is no way stocks will have a V recovery in March 2020 based on blah, blah, whatever...and they did.
    8) The economy is bad, unemployment is high, the debt is huge = bad future stock market. The reality? Stocks are still up.
    9) If Trump will be elected, it will be a disaster. Reality? stocks were up
    10) New predictions a) The new president will be XXXX so do something now b) Covid-19 cases will be up c) China-US relations got worse
    The Fed successfully managed to do all the above and why many "experts" were wrong
    If you didn't get the message already, most investors should do nothing to very little. Predictions are a flipping coin. Some will be correct just because markets go sometimes down.
  • Brown Advisory Strategic Bond Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1548609/000089418920007697/brownadvisoryfundsstrategi.htm
    497 1 brownadvisoryfundsstrategi.htm 497
    BROWN ADVISORY FUNDS
    Brown Advisory Strategic Bond Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    Institutional Shares (BIABX)
    Investor Shares (BATBX)
    Advisor Shares (Not Available for Sale)
    Supplement dated September 14, 2020
    to the Prospectus, the Summary Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information
    dated October 31, 2019
    The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Brown Advisory Funds (the “Trust”), based upon the recommendation of Brown Advisory LLC (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser to the Fund, has determined to close and liquidate the Fund. The Board concluded that it would be in the best interest of the Fund and its shareholders that the Fund be closed and liquidated as a series of the Trust effective as of the close of business on October 14, 2020. Accordingly, the Board approved a Plan of Liquidation and Termination (the “Plan”) that sets forth the manner in which the Fund will be liquidated.
    The Board has determined to waive any applicable redemption fees and exchange fees for shares redeemed on or after September 14, 2020.
    Effective September 15, 2020, in anticipation of the liquidation, the Fund is no longer accepting purchases into the Fund. In addition, the Adviser will begin an orderly transition of the portfolio to cash and cash equivalents and the Fund will no longer be pursuing its stated investment objective. Shareholders of the Fund may redeem their investments as described in the Fund’s Prospectus.
    If you hold your shares in an IRA account, you have 60 days from the date you receive your proceeds to reinvest or “rollover” your proceeds into another IRA and maintain their tax-deferred status. You must notify the Fund’s transfer agent by telephone at 800-540-6807 (toll free) or 414-203-9064 prior to October 14, 2020, of your intent to rollover your IRA account to avoid withholding deductions from your proceeds.
    Pursuant to the Plan, if the Fund has not received your redemption request or other instruction prior to October 14, 2020, your shares will be redeemed on October 14, 2020, and you will receive your proceeds from the Fund, subject to any required withholding. These proceeds will generally be subject to federal and possibly state and local income taxes if the redeemed shares are held in a taxable account, and the proceeds exceed your adjusted basis in the shares redeemed.
    If the redeemed shares are held in a qualified retirement account such as an IRA, the redemption proceeds may not be subject to current income taxation. You should consult with your tax advisor on the consequences of this redemption to you.
    Shareholder inquiries should be directed to the Fund at 800-540-6807 (toll free) or 414-203-9064.
    Please retain this supplement for your reference.
  • The stock market is detached from economic reality. A reckoning is coming.
    But the larger question still remains. Just how is it that Main Street and Wall Street are so very divorced from one another? The only reason to ignore that question and to point to rosier outlooks is because the metric used to measure the wonderful-ness of the Market has been replaced. Replaced by Fed action and Central Banks around the world, subsidizing the foundations of their economies; and therefore, the world's Economy. Profit no longer matters. Nothing is allowed to fail. Liquidity pumped-into the economy makes The Market a "meth lab," as was referenced here not long ago. The ones who are doing the "cooking" in the "meth lab" can continue to cook, and we can continue to own stocks, AND bonds--- and benefit from owning both. Until it no longer works. Until someone or something "pulls the plug." And it's been going on, in one way or another, since the '08-'09 Crash. ...From "Louisiana 1927" by Randy Newman: "some people got lost in the flood, some people got away alright.... Now, the River broke through, way down in Plaquemines. There were six feet of water in the streets of Evangeline."
    https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-09-14-hurricane-sally-forecast-gulf-coast-storm-surge-flooding
  • Donald J. Easley is leaving T. Rowe Price Diversified Mid-Cap Growth Fund
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1267862/000174177320002708/c497.htm
    497 1 c497.htm
    T. Rowe Price Diversified Mid-Cap Growth Fund
    Supplement to Prospectus Dated May 1, 2020
    In section 1, the portfolio manager table under “Management” is supplemented as follows:
    Effective January 1, 2021, Donald J. Easley will step down as the fund’s co-portfolio manager and Cochairman of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee, and Donald J. Peters will become the fund’s sole portfolio manager and sole Chairman of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee.
    In section 2, the disclosure under “Portfolio Management” is supplemented as follows:
    Effective January 1, 2021, Donald J. Easley will step down as the fund’s co-portfolio manager and Cochairman of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee, and Donald J. Peters will continue to manage the fund and serve as the fund’s sole portfolio manager and Chairman of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee.
    The date of this supplement is September 14, 2020.
    F149-041 9/14/20
    He is going to T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Growth Fund.
    https://citywireusa.com/professional-buyer/news/fund-files-t-rowe-boosts-33bn-fund-with-two-new-pms/a1401062
  • The stock market is detached from economic reality. A reckoning is coming.
    "the stock market and the economy is two very different thing" = correct
    "A reckoning is coming" investing based on predictions isn't recommended.
    Over the years we heard the following:
    1) US stocks are over value, the rest of the world is undervalue. US stocks did better in the last 10 years.
    2) The GMO team and Arnott have been wrong for 10 years.
    3) Gundlach was way wrong when he predicted the 10 year will be at 6% in 2021
    4) Bogle was wrong when he predicted stocks/bonds performance based on the past and averages.
    5) Inflation and interest rates can only go up. Both wrong for years.
    6) inverted yield signals recession = wrong. High PE, PE10 signal the end of the bull market...wrong again for years.
    7) There is no way stocks will have a V recovery in March 2020 based on blah, blah, whatever...and they did.
    8) The economy is bad, unemployment is high, the debt is huge = bad future stock market. The reality? Stocks are still up.
    9) If Trump will be elected, it will be a disaster. Reality? stocks were up
    10) New predictions a) The new president will be XXXX so do something now b) Covid-19 cases will be up c) China-US relations got worse
    The Fed successfully managed to do all the above and why many "experts" were wrong
    If you didn't get the message already, most investors should do nothing to very little. Predictions are a flipping coin. Some will be correct just because markets go sometimes down.
  • The stock market is detached from economic reality. A reckoning is coming.
    Yes, the stock market and the economy is two very different thing. Those of us who have jobs and 401(K) are very different those who live from paycheck to paycheck with little saving, let alone investing for retirement. Unfortunately these income folks will not benefit from the stock market and the bigger pictures of the American Dream.