DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach Predicted Donald Trump Victory Here is Ms Abramowicz Full article from Bloomberg Gadfly/Gundlach Webcast Info
Gundlach Takes a Moral Victory Lap
By Lisa Abramowicz
...This just shows how difficult it will be to win big over the next few months, even if a money manager gets a few big bets right. Opportunities will abound, but so will the risk of failures (see the Mexican peso, 30-year bonds and emerging-market debt.) Mutual-fund investors have made a clear statement since the crisis -- they don't want to lose a ton of money again. Investment managers are tasked with balancing out risks and hedging against being wrong, even at a significant cost.
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-11-11/doubleline-s-gundlach-called-trump-s-victory-but-played-it-safeNo Gloating Allowed ? Gundlach to host his first post election webcast Tue November 15thDoubleLine Asset Allocation - Core Fixed Income & Flexible Income Live Webcast
hosted by Jeffrey Gundlach
Tuesday, November 15, 2016 1:15 pm PT / 4:15 pm ET / 3:15 pm CT
Register here:
https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1085785CHART OF THE WEEK
30-YEAR US TREASURY YIELDS "TRUMPED" BY US ELECTION
https://www.payden.com/Here's another rare event,although much more predictable.Supermoon Forecast: The Moon Hasn't Been This Close (to Earth ) in Almost 69 Years
By Joe Rao, SPACE.com Skywatching Columnist | November 11, 2016 07:00am ET
On Monday (Nov. 14) at 6:1
5 a.m. EST, the moon will arrive at its closest point to the Earth in 2016: a distance of 221,
524 miles (3
56,
508 kilometers) away. This distance, which is measured from the center of the Earth to the center of the moon, is within 8
5 miles (137 km) of the moon's closest possible approach to Earth; to be sure, this is an extreme perigee.
Supermoons can appear 30 percent brighter and up to 14 percent larger than typical full moons.
http://www.space.com/21693-supermoon-full-moon-2013-stargazers-photos.htmlhttp://www.space.com/34660-closest-supermoon-full-moon-in-69-years-forecast.htmlhttp://www.timeanddate.com/moon/usa/madison
Lipper Mutual Fund Category Performance Report 10/20/16 + Lipper Yardsticks & Indexes:11/10/16
Did I miss the memo? Emerging Markets Bonds Hank, I'm actually going to free up some money today to move back into PRPFX. Haven't owned it for about
5 years, but with how things have played out this week I think PRPFX with it's gold and Swiss Frank allotment plus the commodities sector may be some what of a safe haven. Anyway, thanks for the reminder on this fund.
U.S. Treasuries Staged A Wild Intraday Swing After The Election Hello,
Here is what's happening with me.
Since, Mr. Trump's victory was a surprise to many it also seems to be as well for the market. In my own portfolio, I have had some winning sectors as well as some laggards. All in all my portfolio has the same value comparing market close of November 7th to the close on the 10th. While some things have increased in value some things have also fallen in value netting me even. I guess this is one of the benefits of good diverfication. While my fund managers are perhaps making some changes ... I myself plan to just sit tight and rock along not dong much of anything until things gets sorted out by Mr. Market. Seems, by my math, the market as defined by the S&P 500 Index is up 1.6% form its 11/7 close of 2132 to its 11/10 close of 2167.
My three best performing sleeves since the election are my small/mid cap sleeve found in the growth area of my portfolio followed by my domestic hybrid sleeve found in the growth and income area along with my global hybrid sleeve which is also a member of the growth & income area as well. Its also interesting that my income area has held up much better than anticipated being flat like my portfolio as a whole. Seems, my hybrid income sleeve has, thus far, covered the losses that were a product of my income sleeve netting the area out flat.
Currently, I still lead my bogey ... The Lipper Balanced Index, although it has made some gains of late where I have been flat.
It will be interesting to see how things go today.
Skeet
Did I miss the memo? Emerging Markets Bonds It's pretty wild, so I had to doublecheck this on the Powershares site after seeing it on M*: PCY (US$) and LEMB (local currency) both fell in price today ~ 2x the drop in the IIV, resulting in very wide discounts, for etf's.
Here's PCY, discount now of 1.9%, and
here's LEMB, discount of 3.4%. From the charts a little way down from the top of the M* page, it looks like these may be the widest discounts ever for both.
Note also the very large trading volume.
Edit: Junkster mentioned HYD -
same thing going on there, too.
Looks like some panicky selling happening ... or maybe several big players adjusting allocations at the same time for the new national order? You'd have to bet EM oef's will be down much less than the etf's today.
Exactly and why I would never ever buy a bond ETF.
Edit; well, that was a shock. The open end fared worst than I thought with some of the emerging markets bond funds on my screen down 3% to
5% (OEMYX)
U.S. Treasuries Staged A Wild Intraday Swing After The Election I'm flat too, up 0.25% since 9/30 as of yesterday's close
U.S. Treasuries Staged A Wild Intraday Swing After The Election Hi
@hank,
While I have the market, as measured by the S&P
500 Index, up about 1.4
5% my portfolio is only up by 0.3% from the 11/7 market close (2132) vs. the 11/9 market close (2163). This is in part due to my sector allocations, my sizeable cash position, plus my global holdings have not yet begin to participate in the recent rally. My income area held up well with slight gains.
In my early morning viewing today, I am seeing many foreign markets gaining traction. With this, I'm looking for my global holdings to have some good gains today. For the past rolling five days, I am up overall about 1.2% throuh the 11/9 market close while I have the Index up better than 3.
5%. I'm thinking my portfolio's returns will be much improved by week's end ... and, perhaps, your's will be as well.
In addition, I lead my bogey ... The Lipper Ballanced Index.
Skeet
The Breakfast Briefing: Dow Futures Drop 300 Points, Off Worst Levels, As Trump, Republicans Sweep
Lipper apparently begins its 1-5 ratings at 3y of performance, like M* [edited] msf said: "Also, Lipper's rankings are linearly distributed (1/5 in the top quintile, duh), while M*'s are more bell shaped (10% get 1 or 5 stars, 22.5% get 2 or 4 stars, and 35% get 3 stars.)
That's fascinating. Appears to be a type of front-loading or levering-up by M* similar to how a gambler (or investor) might use leverage to magnify a correct wager. And if he calls it incorrectly, the error is also magnified. Now I understand why M* sometimes makes so little sense to me when I try to match their ratings with my own perceptions after researching a fund's history.
Edit: The larger issue, IMHO, remains the difficulty of classifying funds so that meaningful comparisons can be drawn. Than again: What would we have to talk about here?
2016 Capital Gains Estimates While Artisan has not announced their 2016 distribution estimates, their website says:
"Artisan Partners Funds 2016 distribution record date will be November 16th and the Payment or Ex-Dividend date is November 17th"
My question is which is the latest date I can sell one of their funds and not receive the distribution? Is it by 4:00 PM on the record date Wednesday the 16th or is it by 4:00 PM on Tuesday the 15th?
Mona
Lipper apparently begins its 1-5 ratings at 3y of performance, like M* [edited] Until this decade, Lipper said that a fund that fell within the top quintile was in the first quintile. Apparently too many people thought that quintiles were the same as stars, and concluded that first quintile performance was lousy. So Lipper inverted its rankings a few years ago.
Also, Lipper's rankings are linearly distributed (1/
5 in the top quintile, duh), while M*'s are more
bell shaped (10% get 1 or
5 stars, 22.
5% get 2 or 4 stars, and 3
5% get 3 stars).
None of this speaks to the methodology, just the scoring.
Lipper apparently begins its 1-5 ratings at 3y of performance, like M* [edited] I misspoke in using the word 'star'; Lipper does a 1-5 rating, no star graphic. If you go to www.lipperleaders.com now, you indeed find results for the two DoubleLine Cape Enhanced, so their ranking start point must be 3y, same as M*. Don't know why it did not turn up on Marketwatch, should doublecheck. Ah, today they do show up. So 3y is there answer to my query, and never mind :) .
Q&A With Jim Rogers: Serious Economic Crisis Coming; Here's What I'm Doing
In the long run, Jim Rogers has been about as wrong as any guru out there on just about every asset class under the sun. Reminds me of the ex-resident stock picker on this forum now vanished whose stock picks were among the worst I had ever seen in my
50 years in this game. Sadly many here fell for his spiel and are now holding severely underwater stocks. Bottom line is be fiercely independent as an investor or trader and don't buy/sell based on the opinions/advice of others.