Thanks @BemWP. Spot on. I’ve got enough other “addictions“ without playing individual stocks and ETFs. A conscious decision made years back to protect me from myself. Every once in a while, however, I’ll spot a mutual fund at one of the houses where I invest that’s off 30, 40, 50% over the past 12 months and I’ll buy a little. Usually plan to hold no longer than 3-6 months. Works most of the time for a quick gain.
I guess like everybody else, I’m looking for niche plays to add a bit of return in this extremely low interest rate environment. And the macros look compelling with the Fed throwing money at the system and the Administration goosing markets as much as they can for the election. If all that isn’t enough, there’s speculative fever in the air and a tendency to want to jump on the bandwagon!

I give up! But thanks all for the ideas.
Looking at the 3-month charts, nearly everything is up anywhere from 5-15% over that short period, even though YTD several funds still lag. Real estate might be OK as a bet, but not sure. Suspect it would pull back along with equities on the next market correction. IMHO better buying opportunities will come along. Not selling anything. Just not ready to speculate. I already have 3 small 1-2% spec plays running: PIEQX, PRLAX and OPGSX.

I received a “section 19a” document from Alpha Centric via Schwab informing shareholders about the percentage of monthly distributions that is income and that which is return of capital. It seems to me this is the first such notice I have received, but I could have missed something previously. In the event, to date, ROC amounts to 56% of the gross distributions with the remainder as true income. I believe the cost basis of one’s holding in the fund must be reduced by the amount of the ROC. I have no idea if what Schwab reports to the IRS accounts for this, nor do I know if TurboTax can account for this. Apparently, upon sale of the MF, if the ROC is not factored in, the shareholder could be in violation of IRS rules. I did not sell when IOAFX cratered, but I did hear on the board of others bailing out. I hope this is post is not too wonky.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4371359-closed-end-funds-4-municipal-bond-funds-for-your-portfolio
Closed-End Funds: 4 Municipal Bond Funds For Your Portfolio
AMBTT, EIM, EVN
Summary
We are taking a look at several of our Taxable Income Portfolio holdings.
The four funds we are diving into are in the muni space, providing plenty of federally tax-free income.
The four covered today are investment-grade funds, i.e. not "high yield" munis - this can help more conservative investors
Tax considerations could be a large factor in term selection and buying more muni tax free incomes... matbe able sleep better at night if you end up selecting safer tax free muni plays
Hy muni - not so much... we did bought hy muni many yrs ago ( did not know start out as a new rookie) that vehicle bellied up, ended up losing 4k back then...have to be very careful w dull diligence research before jumping in
imho Probably best buy more muni etf from now on

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-settle-for-skimpy-bond-yields-and-make-dividend-stocks-your-best-income-play-fixed-income-veteran-says-2020-08-27
Don’t settle for skimpy bond yields and make dividend stocks your best income play, fixed-income veteran says
The fixed-income market ‘is as much of a challenge as I have seen in 41 years,’ says Dan Genter, CEO of RNC Genter Capital Management
Bonds and treasuries mm yields are in the toilets....not many options left
What else are you folks doing? More junk and prefered???
We did buy/add more BAC PREFERRED few days, maybe good play medium long terms
(BAC.PRA)
Pff
Jnk

I find it interesting from a psychological perspective that the one fund I recommended that is hot right now VWIGX is the one many MFOrs are interested in while the two value ones I mentioned that are also good funds in their categories--QUSOX and HFQTX-- but their categories are not in favor right now are overlooked. Investors tend to chase performance to their detriment, yet it is more complicated that that. Short-term 12-month or one-moth momentum in funds tends to persist while long-term outperformance doesn't and actually the opposite is the case. You want to buy the best funds --or perhaps the lowest cost funds--in the categories that underperformed in the last three to five years. Click here: https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2018/09/03/chasing-mutual-fund-performance-follow-the-momentum/ Yet no matter what I do or say, for as long as I've been on this board most posters have always been talking about what's hot right now and generally overlooked the contrarian play. All of that said, I think VWIGX is good for its category, and fees always matter in every category--a lot--and VWIGX has very low fees for an active fund.

Here is an article that discusses factors that may need to be considered to properly interpret this indicator today.

Why Is The Buffett Indicator Less Meaningful Now?
The first argument is that the current Buffett Indicator reading includes the very steep GDP drop that occurred during Q2. Almost all analysts forecast that this GDP drop will not be a lasting one and that the US economy will fully recover in the not-too-distant future. The current GDP reading is thus artificially low due to the pandemic impact during the most recent quarter.
On top of this issue, there are other, more structural and long-term reasons why the Buffett Indicator reading maybe isn't as meaningful as it used to be.
1.Tax Rates.
2. More overseas revenues and profits
3. Changes in the industries that make up the US market capitalization
4. Interest rates and inflation are lower
5. Buffett himself seems to have lost confidence in the indicator

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4371273-buffett-is-genius-investor-is-why-you-should-forget-indicator

Here's Vanguard's press release (largely duplicative of the above info)
https://pressroom.vanguard.com/news/Press-Release-Vanguard-Announces-Changes-Money-Market-Fund-Lineup-082720.html

Over the past two decades, Vanguard’s approach has helped Prime Admiral Shares outperform 97% of the competition. However, Prime Investor Shares have only slightly outperformed Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund over this same time period. This shift in the fund’s portfolio [to US government securities] underscores Vanguard’s belief that government money market funds can better meet investor needs for capital preservation and liquidity while avoiding undue risk.

Pardon a bit of cynicism here, but it doesn't take two decades to come to this conclusion. Unless something unspoken has changed, like risk. Not necessarily risk to the investor, but to Vanguard. Jane Bryant Quinn wrote in 1990:

The last year has seen at least two near-misses. Integrated Resources defaulted on commercial paper that was being held by some money funds, and paper owed by Mortgage & Realty Trust was threatened. Among the victims: funds carrying the good names of Value Line, Liquid Green, Alliance and T. Rowe Price.
In each case, the sponsor stepped in to absorb the loss. But if it hadn`t, the fund`s investors would have come up short.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-1990-05-21-9002110461-story.html
The risk in a prime MMF is largely to the fund sponsor - eat the loss or lose face.
Why doesn't Vanguard simply merge the fund with VMFXX? Prime MMF is going to have a similar portfolio anyway. So even if you stay with the fund, you'll get the lower yield of a government MMF. The ER of VMFXX is just one basis point more than the Admiral shares of Prime. With Prime MMF Admiral shares you lose the ability to write checks; with VMFXX you can still write checks.

I've been impressed by the approach taken by Grandeur Peak (as well as by the performance). They seem interested in serving their clients, not merely themselves. In tough markets, like 4th quarter 2018, they may drop like a rock but seem to recover quite well. I used to own OAKIX. Performance, both medium and long term, can now be described as no better than average while volatility is off the charts and fees are too high. The comment about FMIJX reports sounding like a broken record struck home. So many redemptions there, year end capital gains distributions may be ugly for a taxable account. Sold that earlier this year. It's hard to overlook the hot streak VWIGX has been on. Gaudy is the word. But even when you back out 2020 performance it has done very well historically. Personally, I've also opted for rock bottom expenses in the form of VTMGX.

I can recommend WAMCX. It’s not a mid cap but rather a domestic small cap growth fund which is closing to new investors on 9/11.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/106830/000168386320012840/f6773d1.htm
497 1 f6773d1.htm VANGAURD PRIME MONEY MARKET FUND 497
Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund
Supplement Dated August 27, 2020, to the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus Dated December 20, 2019
Change in Strategy, Name, and Designation
The board of trustees (the “Board”) of Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (the “Fund”) has approved changes to the Fund’s investment strategy and name, and a change in the Fund’s designation to a “government” money market fund. These changes will be effective on or about September 29, 2020.
The Fund is currently designated as a “retail” money market fund. The Fund invests primarily in high-quality, short-term money market instruments, including certificates of deposit, banker’s acceptances, commercial paper, Eurodollar and Yankee obligations, and other money market securities, including securities issued by the U.S. government or its agencies and instrumentalities. The Fund invests more than 25% of its assets in the financial services industry.
The Board has determined that it is in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders to change the Fund’s designation to a “government” money market fund. Pursuant to Rule 2a-7 under the Investment Company Act of 1940, a government money market fund is required to invest at least 99.5% of its total assets in cash, U.S. government securities, and/or repurchase agreements that are collateralized solely by U.S. government securities and/or cash (“government securities”).
Accordingly, effective on or about September 29, 2020, the Fund will invest at least 99.5% of its total assets in government securities and the Fund’s name will change to Vanguard Cash Reserves Federal Money Market Fund. The Fund will continue to invest more than 25% of its assets in the financial services industry (i.e., issuers principally engaged in providing financial services to consumers and industry), which includes securities issued by government-sponsored enterprises, such as the Federal National Mortgage Association (“Fannie Mae”), the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (“Freddie Mac”), and the Federal Home Loan Banks. Currently, the Fund has no limit on its ability to invest in government securities, and will continue to increase such investments prior to changing its designation to a government money market fund.
In addition, in connection with the change in the Fund’s name, the Board also approved the implementation of a policy for the Fund to invest, under normal circumstances, at least 80% of its assets in securities issued by the U.S. government and its agencies and instrumentalities. This policy will become effective concurrent with the other changes to change the Fund’s designation to a government money market fund.
Lower Investment Minimum
The Board has also approved lowering the investment minimum for AdmiralTM Shares of the Fund to $3,000, effective immediately. Investors may convert their Investor Shares to Admiral Shares at any time by accessing their account at vanguard.com or by contacting Vanguard.
It is anticipated that all of the outstanding Investor Shares of the Fund will be automatically converted to Admiral Shares beginning in the fall of 2020 and continuing through 2021. Once all investors have been converted from Investor Shares to Admiral Shares, the Fund’s Investor Share class will be eliminated.
The Fund’s registration statement will be updated on or about September 29, 2020, to reflect these changes.
© 2020 The Vanguard Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
or
https://investornews.vanguard/changes-to-our-taxable-money-market-fund-lineup/

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1005020/000110465920099646/tm2029720d1_497e.htm
97 1 tm2029720d1_497e.htm VIRTUS RAMPART EQUITY TREND FUND
VIRTUS OPPORTUNITIES TRUST
Virtus Rampart Equity Trend Fund
101 Munson Street
Greenfield, MA 01301
(800) 243-1574
IMPORTANT NOTICE REGARDING CHANGES TO THE FUND’S SUBADVISER, NAME, PRINCIPAL INVESTMENT STRATEGIES AND PRINCIPAL RISKS
August 27, 2020
Dear Shareholder:
I am writing to inform you of important changes to the subadviser, name, principal investment strategies, and principal risks for the Virtus Rampart Equity Trend Fund, to be renamed the Virtus FORT Trend Fund (the “Fund”).
As previously communicated, on June 17, 2020, the Board of Trustees of Virtus Opportunities Trust approved the replacement of the Fund’s current subadviser, Rampart Investment Management, LLC, with FORT Investment Management LP (“FORT”), and in connection therewith, a change to the Fund’s name, principal investment strategies and principal risks, in order to address concerns that the Fund’s current strategy was not performing as expected due to changes in the way the market operates since the current investment strategies and the quantitative model on which they were based were established. The Board’s approval was based upon the recommendation of Virtus Investment Advisers, Inc. (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser to the Fund. The changes to the Fund were disclosed in a supplement to the Fund’s prospectus dated June 18, 2020, and are anticipated to take effect on or about August 31, 2020 (“Effective Date”).
In summary, the Fund will continue to seek long-term capital appreciation. Consistent with this objective, as of the Effective Date, the Fund’s investment program will consist of two elements: (i) an actively managed portfolio of a broad spectrum of worldwide financial and non-financial futures contracts, which may include, but are not limited to, contracts on short-term interest rates, bonds, currencies, stock indices, energy, metals and agricultural commodities; and (ii) a portfolio of cash equivalents, U.S. government securities (including money market funds that invest solely in U.S. government securities) and other short-term, high grade debt instruments. The Fund expects to seek to gain its exposure to the futures contracts described in this section by investing up to 25% of its total assets in a wholly-owned subsidiary of the fund (the “Subsidiary”) organized as a company under the laws of the Cayman Islands. The Fund may also engage in short sales of any instrument that it is permitted to purchase for investment, and may invest without restriction as to country, currency, or underlying asset type. As of the Effective Date, the Fund will therefore maintain the potential for a significant allocation to cash or cash equivalents and high-quality short-term securities but, unlike before, the Fund will hold interests in derivatives and commodities rather than equity securities.
In connection with the new strategy, as of the Effective Date, the Fund will no longer be subject to Equity Securities Risk and Sector Focused Investing Risk as principal risks, and it will be subject to the following new principal risks..:

George Soros called me and said buy a 1000 shares of GLD etf (using a market order) at 10:45 am EDT on 10/7/2020. Said the trade will be good until 1/20/2021. He's calling me back later to advise me as to which model of the Bentley Bentayga I should buy !

Oh gosh @Derf, I don't have the guts to do anything "all-in" :) . I'm well diversified through my Schwab robo account and my self managed account combined. I'm really trialing this stop-order idea in my self managed. Basically I sold a chunk of a mutual funds, AKREX and YAFFX, and moved that money to QQQ with the stop-order. I wanted to reduce equity because I also believe valuations are very high but I did not want to guess when the next big drop will come (stay in until Mr. Market decides a pullback). Granted, this type of action isn't for everyone but it is no different really to trend following ala Junkster or FD. At least in my mind. You just take the emotion out of it and let the computer do the work. Same potential for being whip-sawed too. Prevent defense is now the new term I'll use for it.
Last I looked, Schwab said my over-all was about 43/35/10/12 (eq/bonds/cash/other). The "other" category is an interesting combination of gold and alternative hedge type funds and ETFs that are non or loosely correlated to equity.
Bills 17- Packers 16 !... Is that the next super bowl prediction!!!

Date of Speech: August 27, 2020
- Fed will target 2% inflation rate on average, in softening of policy
- Fed will also monitor shortfalls in unemployment rate, with less concern about overshoots
- No mention of forward guidance
- Speech and statement suggest rate hikes are a long way off
- Stocks and gold rise, dollar falls slightly
Above loosely excerpted from: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/08/27/markets-live-latest-coronavirus-news-pound-euro-ftse-100/
(Ignore the time stamps. That’s London time.)

https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4371007-gld-next-buying-opportunity-in-6-weeks-time
GLD: Next Buying Opportunity In About 6 Weeks' Time
Aug. 26, 2020 10:35 PMSPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)
Summary
Gold is trying to confirm its daily cycle low.
We are on week 24 of the intermediate cycle.
The momentum of the yearly cycle and 8-year cycle should mean we have a couple of years left in this bull market.
We did added more gold recently [both physicals gold silvers also from AMPEX.COM and GLD]. think could be more gas left in the tank especially Feds keep pumping more money and central banks around the world keep borrowing to keep their economies afloat.

Checking up on a famous indicator.......

The metric earned its nickname after Buffett once said it's “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” The Buffett indicator is calculated by dividing the total value of all stocks in the U.S. market and by the gross domestic product of the U.S. Traders typically use the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index as a measure of total U.S. market cap.
Historically, the Buffett indicator average has been between 93% and 114%. The ratio peaked at 107.5% at the peak of the housing bubble in 2007 and at 139.5% during the dot-com bubble in 2000. In 2020, the Buffett indicator has spiked to new all-time highs of 182.7%, and it continues to climb higher with each new stock market high.
Benzinga’s Take: Even if the stock market is overvalued, it doesn’t mean a sell-off is imminent. However, it does mean that investors should keep that stretched valuation in mind when assessing risk and balancing a portfolio accordingly.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/called-buffett-indicator-hits-time-211520943.html

So to sum up are discussion, ETF +1 , if thinking to get back into the market.
Bills 17- Packers 16 !
Derf
@MikeM: Did you throw all into ETF or will you buy in steps? I'm thinking ave. in might also be a better risk provider.

Prevent defense is a good term for it @Derf.
But's let's turn your comment around, "what if" you are staying out of the market, holding excessive cash while the market goes up (as davidrmoran alluded to) because you just know there is going to be a fall at some point and 2 months later you find the market is up another 10%.
A stop-order is 'prevent defense' from getting in at just the wrong time. It limits that risk and gives you the prospect of higher returns by staying in the market.

...I see no profit when that happens.

Let's turn that around. I see no profit keeping everything in cash as the unpredictable market is trending up.

In other words everything doesn't go up after a purchase

Of course not. That's the (minimized) risk you take with this idea. I bought QQQ 3 weeks ago when I thought it was already very high. It's up +8% from my buy. Turn it around and you can say I "risked" losing that 8% gain by being in cash waiting for a QQQ pullback.
The pullback will happen no doubt. But being out of the market just waiting for the pullback to happen is a risk also.

Thanks. Yes. Hard to sit when you enjoy the game plus have some dry powder to play around with. My metrics are obviously the reverse of momentum investing. For short-intermediate term spec, I look for things that have done very poorly for several years and have really flopped the past 12 months. But which “under the hood” appear solid longer term investments. Scanned Price’s historical performance yesterday and found I already hold the “best of the worst.” Those are PRLAX and PRNEX - both have begun to come alive but still deeply submerged.
Not talking about core investments, just play money. I’m forever influenced by Bogle’s “reversion to the mean” and also a comment by Sir John Templeton about 30 years ago that “very rarely’” does a market go down more than 50% from its high and stay there for long. However, that’s a rule of thumb - not a fact. Japan has disproven him to some extent. Very narrow markets like gold and silver have also had no problem diving more than 50% from peak in the past. And than, there was the “tech wreck” around 2000.
On the shopping list are some EM equity and bond markets, formerly fine international funds like DODFX, and real estate funds. None appear badly enough beaten up at this point to dive in. My cash is at a relatively low 10%. Everything else is in some type of more aggressive investment, be it income producing, commodity related or diversified equity. Part of me wants to lower exposure to balanced funds and increase more “pure” equity due to the present “return-free“ nature of most investment grade bonds. But, that might be akin to jumping from the pot into the fire.
Thanks for your input.