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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • RayDalio: “Cash Is Trash ” & "Bridgewater Is Long Equity Markets" Two Videos
    This has to be disheartening to Billionaires (or even Millionaires) when the very thing (their financial valuation) is trash. What are future Trillion-aires to do?
    I still think many Hundred-aires and Thousand-aires find cash a necessary part of their everyday life and are impacted greatly by its "trashiness".
    Here is an interesting read on today's financial alchemy which, in part, explains why "Cash is Trash" and other assets aren't much better.
    Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk:
    Artemis_Volatility+and+the+Alchemy+of+Risk_2017
    Ray on Volatility:

  • Dividend Growth Or Dividend Yield?
    Actually I think one can have both dividend growth and dividend yield if one has a plan, and has the patience to execute it. Trust the process:
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4117315-trust-process?uprof=46&isDirectRoadblock=false
    Some on this site think it's utter bunk because of the source (Seeking Alpha) of the linked article but I can say that it has worked for me. I'll leave it to you to draw your own conclusions.
  • Vanguard’s Genocide Problem
    FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
    The first six agenda items for next month’s Vanguard shareholder meeting cover riveting topics such as the appointment of trustees, service agreements, and the investment objectives of certain index funds. The seventh and final item concerns genocide.
    That got serious in a hurry.
    A group of activists is asking Vanguard to adopt a new policy...
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=0kD0WameIoKUjwSG6pko&q=Vanguard’s+Genocide+Problem+Barron's&oq=Vanguard’s+Genocide+Problem+Barron's&gs_l=psy-ab.3...6307.11470.0.11775.12.11.0.0.0.0.76.646.10.11.0....0...1.1j2.64.psy-ab..1.8.564.6..35i39k1j33i160k1j33i21k1.104.S6R5KWZ3TXA
  • SEC Fines UBS $3.5 Million For Overcharging Mutual Fund Customers
    FYI: UBS AG (UBSG.S) will pay a $3.5 million civil fine to settle U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission claims that it overcharged customers on mutual funds, the regulator said on Friday.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ubs-sec/sec-fines-ubs-3-5-million-for-overcharging-mutual-fund-customers-idUSKBN1CW2Z5
  • Best HSA Provider for Investing HSA Money
    To take a medical deduction, you need proof of two different things:
    1) That a qualified medical expense was incurred, and
    2) That you paid the expense.
    Old checks should suffice for #2, but you should also have proof of #1. That check to your dentist might have been for an electric toothbrush. Your doctor might be your next door neighbor who just sold you his old lawnmower.
    EOBs and doctor bills seem to be good ways to show what services were paid for.
    Regarding using HSAs for Medicare premiums - watch out for a gotcha.
    From IRS Pub 969: "if you, the account beneficiary, are not 65 or older, Medicare premiums for coverage of your spouse or a dependent (who is 65 or older) generally aren’t qualified medical expenses."
  • Buy, Sell and Ponder October 2017
    @ Old _Skeet & MFO Members: Here is a complete breakdown of the Sector SPDR's ETF Funds.
    Regards,
    Ted
    One Month % Change
    S&P 500 Index
    +2.55%
    Consumer Discretionary (XLY)
    +1.76%
    Consumer Staples (XLP)
    -1.62%
    Energy (XLE)
    -1.35%
    Financials (XLF)
    +5.55%
    Health Care (XLV)
    +1.17%
    Industrials (XLI)
    +2.18%
    Materials (XLB)
    +5.37%
    Real Estate (XLRE)
    -0.37%
    Technology (XLK)
    +4.93%
    Utilities (XLU)
    +2.03%
  • Buy, Sell and Ponder October 2017
    Hello,
    Today is the last Friday of the month and a monthly close for Old_Skeet. The previous week there was no report on the barometer but the week closed with a reading of 132 and every feed indicated that the S&P 500 Index was overbought. This week a good bit of the overbought condition was worked off as the barometer closed the week, and the month, with a reading of 143 putting it just barely into overvalued territory and close to fair value. Generally, a lower barometer reading indicates there is less investment value in the Index while a higher reading indicates potentially more investment value.
    The three major feeds of the barometer are a breadth feed which measures the number of stocks in the 500 Index above their 200 moving average. An earnings feed that combines both forward earnings estimates and as reported earnings (TTM). And, a technical score feed that is a combination of the Money Flow Index and Relative Strength Index. Combined these three feeds produce the barometer reading. The higher the combine feeds score the lower the barometer reading. And, at times, the slow stoch and short interest feeds factor into the reading. Just this past week short interest in SPY rose form 2.8 days to 3.3 days to cover. If the Index continues to advance I look for short interest (days to cover) to pullback as shorts cover their positions.
    For the month the three best performing major sector etfs followed were XLF, XLB & XLK. From a technical score perspective only XLP (staples) offers investment value, form my perspective, as it is the only sector etf followed that is currently scored undervalued.
    At this time, due to valuation, Old_Skeet is not buying (nor selling) and remains in a cash build mode as my mutual funds make their distributions to the cash area of the portfolio. According to my equity weighting matrix, which is driven by the barometer, I am overweight equities, at this time, by about 4% due to a seasonal investment strategy.
    I wish all "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • CIM: The Gift That Keeps On Giving
    @MFO Members: For those of you who think all I'm good for is linking articles. I also am a reasonable successful investor. Just received my quarterly CIM .50 dividend. On 6/16/15/ I pruchased shares in CIM at $14.55 per share. The stock closed today @ $18.50 that give me a 27.1% capital appreciation and a yield of 13.7%. On 11/28/16 purchased CIM-A preferred shares @24.64 that closed today @25.90 that gives me capital appreciation of 5.1% and yield of 8.1%.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Best HSA Provider for Investing HSA Money
    @Kaspa,
    Lost medical receipts might be retrievable by finding past checking statements (my bank keeps these available online electronicly in pdfs going back multiple years). Once you identify a lost payment save as a pdf (download to a storage device or the cloud). Also, lost payment records by credit card can be retrieved similarly.
    You might even be able to ask your dentist's/doctor's office or hospital billing department to retrieve patient payments.
    Items and services that are reimbursable are linked here (Qualified medical expenses):
    hsacenter.com/what-is-an-hsa/qualified-medical-expenses/
    H.S.A can be very helpful after age 65:
    Many out-of-pocket expenses qualify for tax-free H.S.A withdrawals even after you’re on Medicare. You can use the money to pay premiums for Medicare Part B, Part D prescription-drug coverage or all-in-one private Medicare Advantage plans (but not for medigap premiums). You can also use the money for co-payments and deductibles you pay for medical expenses, out-of-pocket costs for prescription drugs, vision and dental care, and even a portion of qualified long-term-care premiums ($3,500 in 2012 for people ages 61 to 70, for example and more if you’re older)
    Article:
    health-savings-accounts-after-medicare
    IRS Link to Pub 502:
    https://irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p502.pdf
  • In The Battle For Low-Fee Financial Advice, DIY Beats The Robos
    Always has been expensive. Robos aren't doing anything complicated at all and charging 35 bps... Even the least sophisticated investors can, with little effort, construct a "set it and forget" portfolio for free (absent fund expenses).
  • M*: Setting The Record Straight On Our Fund Ratings
    Thanks Ted.
    USNWR also rates mutual funds. You have to be careful with them. For example, they rank the Deutsche Global Macro fund as the top multialternative fund. And if you look at that fund, they have some nice returns on a 3- and 5-year basis:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/multialternative/deutsche-global-macro-fund/dbisx
    The problem is, it was a 100% equity fund until May 2017. Down 48% in 2008! Apparently, Deutsche totally changed the strategy five months ago from long only to global macro. Since the change, the performance has been meager - up less than 2%.
    Morningstar at least informs the reader about the strategy change. USNWR does not.
  • Meb Faber: Investors Overlook Dividend Stocks’ Tax Bite At Their Peril
    Thanks for posting, Ted. This is a fascinating topic, and one that I've spent a lot of time pondering.
    Faber & Gray are smart guys. But they only told half the story. Buffett recognized that paying dividends robs the investor of the magic of compounding (in addition to imposing current tax liability). Imagine how contrarian that concept was 50 years ago!
    As a result of Buffett's rationale, for a long time I never focused on building a dividend stock selection strategy (even though I knew that Buffett did not confine himself to non-dividend paying stocks).
    Awhile ago, however, I came across the ideas of Geraldine Weiss, particularly that a stock's dividend yield cycles between highs and lows like PE ratios, and that high relative dividend yields can be a proxy for value. This led to the creation of a very interesting dividend model that produced far more capital appreciation than income in our testing.
    So when I read Faber and Gray pit value against yield, my initial thought was "why not both?"
  • Best HSA Provider for Investing HSA Money
    This is one of those rare cases where it is possible to prove a negative, because it's a negative of something very specific.
    To prove that something was never used as an itemized deduction, you could hold onto your Schedule A (itemized deductions) from the year of the medical expense. If you did not itemize any medical expenses that year, end of story.
    If you did itemize medical expenses that year, in all likelihood you did include the the medical expense in question as part of the deducted expenses. (Why would you not have done so?)
    Nevertheless, if for some bizarre reason you (a) itemized expenses for a given year, and (b) did not include a particular medical expense you could still prove that:
    You would need to have proof of all the expenses that did go into calculating the itemized medical expense for that year. Those expenses would need to match the expense claimed (after allowing for the fact that 7.5% of AGI was excluded from the deduction). So long as the expense in question wasn't used to add up to the itemized medical expense for that year, you're fine.
    Well, you asked :-)
  • Best HSA Provider for Investing HSA Money
    "The individual can show that the $1,500 HSA distribution in 2005 is a reimbursement for a qualified medical expense that has not been previously paid or otherwise reimbursed and has not been taken as an itemized deduction."
    This presents an interesting situation. How does one go about proving that something didn't happen?
  • Best HSA Provider for Investing HSA Money
    As a public service, here is the elusive Q-39, in it's entirety:
    Q-39. When must a distribution from an HSA be taken to pay or reimburse, on a tax-free basis, qualified medical expenses incurred in the current year?
    A-39. An account beneficiary may defer to later taxable years distributions from HSAs to pay or reimburse qualified medical expenses incurred in the current year as long as the expenses were incurred after the HSA was established. Similarly, a distribution from an HSA in the current year can be used to pay or reimburse expenses incurred in any prior year as long as the expenses were incurred after the HSA was established. Thus, there is no time limit on when the distribution must occur. However, to be excludable from the account beneficiary’s gross income, he or she must keep records sufficient to later show that the distributions were exclusively to pay or reimburse qualified medical expenses, that the qualified medical expenses have not been previously paid or reimbursed from another source and that the medical expenses have not been taken as an itemized deduction in any prior taxable year. See Notice 2004-2, Q&A 31 and also Notice 2004-25, for transition relief in calendar year 2004 for reimbursement of medical expenses incurred before opening an HSA.
    Example. An eligible individual contributes $1,000 to an HSA in 2004. On December 1, 2004, the individual incurs a $1,500 qualified medical expense and has a balance in his HSA of $1,025. On January 3, 2005, the individual contributes another $1,000 to the HSA, bringing the balance in the HSA to $2,025. In June, 2005, the individual receives a distribution of $1,500 to reimburse him for the $1,500 medical expense incurred in 2004. The individual can show that the $1,500 HSA distribution in 2005 is a reimbursement for a qualified medical expense that has not been previously paid or otherwise reimbursed and has not been taken as an itemized deduction. The distribution is excludable from the account beneficiary’s gross income.
  • Best HSA Provider for Investing HSA Money
    No time limit. The only requirement is that you must have opened the HSA (or its predecessor, if you moved accounts) prior to incurring the qualified expenses.
    So if you opened your HSA in May 2010, then you can hold onto all those bills and proofs of payments from May 2010 on, and use them to justify HSA withdrawals that you make in 2025.
    This seemed too good to be true, so years ago I bookmarked an IRS publication on the subject. Look for Q-39 in this 2004 IRS Bulletin:
    https://www.irs.gov/irb/2004-33_IRB
    "there is no time limit on when the distribution must occur"
  • AAII Investor Sentiment: Bullish Sentiment Approaches 40%
    Bullish sentiment has been very high in the past few weeks. Investor's Intelligence peaked at 62.5% bulls recently, with 60% indicating oversold. Likewise, Market Vane Bullish Consensus peaked at 69% last week, with 70% indicating oversold.
    AAII sentiment has not been accurate in showing oversold conditions.
  • Target return of RiverPark Short Term High Yield (RPHYX / RPHIX)?
    Sorry @claimui - Not qualified to answer your good question. Am sure someone will.
    Enjoyed @msf’s analysis above. Spot-on in many respects. What always strikes me are the discussions that arise during times of stress regarding risk as pertains to cash equivalents or cash alternatives. At a time when equities might be falling by 50% or more, some investors appear unnerved by the potential for much smaller losses in their cash accounts. Heck - I’m willing to take a 5% haircut in a mm or ultra-short if the alternative is a 50% or greater loss in an equity fund.
    I hadn’t thought about the possible freeze on withdrawals. That would be a problem if you’re relying on these funds for subsistence or to pay the mortgage. Might also work against equities if investors couldn’t transfer money into depressed equity funds. In imposing the new rules the SEC was attempting to take control of a monster they didn’t create (directly anyway).
    As far as T-Bills and FDIC go, these are as good as the word of the politicians who write and execute the rules. So, even those pose some risk of loss. Helps explain the appeal of alternative currencies like precious metals and Bitcoins to some.