Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    It can't all go up in a straight line. Domestic Indices were up--- apart from R2000. My PRWCX special sauce was not so special today, though. My biggest holding: oversized, at almost 31% of portf.
  • What do you hold in taxable accounts?
    @soaring - PRGTX, PRMTX, WAMCX and AKREX have all been winners for me. FCNTX is a fund my parents have held for decades and are really pleased with it. WAMCX is closing to new accounts on 9/11, here’s a recent MFO thread on its closing:
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/56704/wasatch-ultra-growth-fund-wamcx-wgmcx-to-close-to-new-investors#latest
    I hold these funds because they've outpaced their benchmarks. I'm younger than you so my risk tolerance may be higher than yours. Best wishes!
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    Thx...
    We picked up GM, bought fordbonds ytm 7.07% rated bb+ never bankruptcybefore, added more to vanguard wellington and vang2045, also got new commodities-silver bars...
    For mama portfolio - bought more fidelity2020 and fbnd bnd pci...she is complaining making too much from portfolio last yr and paying more to uncle Sam this yr lol...I guess something is heading right directions. I told her If something drastic happens to 2021 election may not be a rosey pictures in terms of capital gains /stocks bonds performance/and taxations changes 2021
  • Here’s a useful link if you want to track mining stocks during the day
    Both links show the change in the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF, providing a minute by minute glimpse of what the miners are doing. Quite possibly this is widely known, but thought I’d share. The price of gold / silver is one matter. The action in mining shares (owned by most “gold” funds) is an entirely different matter.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/gdx/
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/gdx/
    FWIW - I bailed from a small position in miners a few weeks ago. Than after the $100 down day reopened a very small position. I’m hoping to add a little more on another big downdraft. Today, Gold’s just above $1900 and the miners were off 3% at 2 PM.
  • We Have Crossed the Line Debt Hawks Warned Us About for Decades
    The debt of the United States now exceeds the size of its gross domestic product. That was considered a doomsday scenario that would wreck the economy. So far, that hasn’t happened.
    Here is one explanation for why that hasn't happened yet.....

    .....since the 2008 financial crisis, traditional thinking about borrowing by governments — at least those that control their own currencies — has further weakened, as central banks in major developed markets became enormous buyers in government bond markets.
    “Fiscal constraints aren’t nearly what economists thought they were,” said Daniel Ivascyn, chief investment officer for PIMCO, which manages nearly $2 trillion in assets, mostly in bonds. “When you have a central bank essentially funding these deficits, you can take debt levels to higher debt levels than people envisioned.”
    https://nytimes.com/2020/08/21/business/economy/national-debt-coronavirus-stimulus.html
  • MFO Ratings Updated Through July 2020 … New Bull Market
    Next favorite is MultiSearch Input Page (Expanded View) ... shows all screening criteria available, more than 100.
  • Thursday close
    Hi Derf, According two a couple of feeds in my barometer they have reflected over the past couple of days a softening and from past history this has often reflected that a dip (decline of 0% to 5%) or even a pull back (decline of 5% to 10%) perhaps even a correction is in the making. To me, this makes some sence due to political convention activity. We shall see. As I write the futures are down in most risk on asset classes. I not looking for an up day in the market as it is Friday and most traders will close out their open positions rather than carrying them open over the weekend. This is Old_Skeet's scientific wild ass guess (SWAG) so no gurantees on the above are made. My account was down -0.06% (6/100ths).
  • What do you hold in taxable accounts?
    Howdy,
    In our taxable account, it's all about being a TAXABLE ACCOUNT. We have a few funds such as PRPFX, SGDLX and FMHTX. Otherwise, it's dividend paying stocks of companies with whom we do business. CMS (2.7%), T(7.0%), VZ (4.2%), DTE (3.5%), etc. One exception is NCV (10.4%). We own that in EVERY account we can. It's all about the yield and NCV is the best I have found and have been owning it for decades. It's a secret though, so don't tell anyone. I want dividends and minimal taxes.
    good luck and wear the mask,
    rono
  • Thursday close
    BRUFX was up. Also, PTIAX. I'm mostly bonds, but still own stock funds. Everything else was DOWN. Strange, but it happens. My total portf. was down by -0.1%.
  • Thursday close
    Schwab shows that following:
    DJIA
    27,739.73 +46.85 (+0.17%)
    NASDAQ
    11,264.95 +118.49 (+1.06%)
    S&P 500
    3,385.51 +10.66 (+0.32%)
    Russell 2000
    1,564.30 -7.77 (-0.49%
    My account resulted in(-.4%)
    This isn't the first time being negative after an up day. I was wondering if other MFOers have the same results in their accounts from time to time ?
    Looking for a better Friday close , Derf
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    Hi guys,
    Politics aside.
    As of market close today ... Old_Skeet's market barometer which follows the S&P 500 Index has experienced a softening in some of its feeds over the past few days. Enough for me to make this post. If you are short of cash within your portfolio and wish to position for a possible market dip of pull back then ... I'm thinking ... now might be a good time to raise some cash. No gurantees; but, I see the possibilty of a storm brewing. How big it might become is a guess.
    For me, I'm about 15/45/40 (cash, bonds, stocks) so I'm sitting tight and not doing anything since I'm already position with enough cash to open an equity spiff if felt warranted.
    Have a good evening.
  • What do you hold in taxable accounts?
    Yes, FSMEX opened again on April 1, 2020
    1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs Life
    26.36% 21.42% 18.37% 19.91% 15.23%
    Thanks for that. I'll keep an eye on it.
  • 5 Automakers Lock In a Deal on Greenhouse Gas Pollution
    The five — Ford, Honda, BMW, Volkswagen and Volvo — sealed a binding agreement with California to follow the state’s stricter tailpipe emissions rules.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/climate/california-automakers-pollution.html
    One highly placed person feels that auto makers outside of these five will “produce far less expensive cars for the consumer, while at the same time making the cars substantially SAFER.” OTOH, "Stanley Young, a spokesman for California’s Air Resources Board, said the agreement achieved “continuous annual reductions in greenhouse gas emissions while saving consumers money.”
    So which is it? Should someone looking at the auto industry invest in companies that make cars that may be less expensive off the shelf, or companies that make cars with potentially lower TCO, depending on miles driven, price of gas, etc.? (I ask this as someone who has put 3500 miles on our car since purchasing it three years ago.)
    One benefit of the agreement is certainty for the five companies. Usually that's something the stock market likes.
    “This represents consistency from a policy point of view,” said Bob Holycross, vice president for sustainability, environment and safety engineering with Ford.
    “Whether it is from one political party to another or the changes from elections or what the makeup of Congress is, we have to have regulatory certainty beyond just political cycles governing the investments we make,” he said.
  • Foreign frontier funds
    Thank you for your reply, msf, especially the information on the Africa ETF and the excellent references on PFICs.
    I won't be circumventing any restrictions on making a purchase, and will answer all eligibility-to-invest questions honestly. This will limit me to funds set up to be offered to US persons. I have been finding out that that does reduce what is available to me substantially. Many funds have separate structures set up for selling to US and non-US persons, and some just don't sell to US persons at all, probably because of the draconian reporting requirements, which the IRS has managed to push non-US companies into complying with.
    The language in the Sturgeon disclaimer is unclear, and I don't think they have that regional restriction, mostly because they know I'm in the US and they're talking with me. The disclaimer seems to say that they won't sell where selling is illegal, and they especially won't sell in the UK or US if selling is illegal there. I doubt that means to say that selling is illegal to US persons, or they wouldn't be talking with me. It's a website disclaimer, and I suspect that what it's getting at is that they can't sell on the basis of anything on the website, meaning that if I'm interested they'll send me a 100+ pages of more legalese to read before investing.
    I don't think Sovereign Man (nor I for the purpose of choosing investments) cares about the historian's distinction between empire and nation state. What matters in this context is whether the US economy is sustainable for another ten to 20 years, and if it isn't, how that will affect my finances before I die. I agree that it is likely that the collapse of our economy will drag down the rest of the world. In that case, we're all cooked. But it's also possible that some other regions may be less affected, and if that happens, then one may benefit from owning something in those other regions.
    I'm thinking that my new portfolio may come out looking something like:
    • 17% US-based funds of US businesses (mutual/ETF)
    • 17% Europe-based funds of Western European businesses (domiciled in Europe, denominated in euros/Swiss francs)
    • 17% Asia-based funds of developed-market Asian businesses (domiciled in Asia, denominated in yen/yuan)
    • 25% Emerging market funds (domiciled outside the US)
    • 25% Frontier market funds (domiciled outside the US)
    This is a strategy of diversification by both region and level of economic development. It's interesting that we can talk about the risk of investing in frontier markets because of the potential for political and economic instability and war. But is the US really still a bastion of security? It seems to me that there are some ways in which an investment in Tanzania or Uzbekistan may be safer that one in the United States.
    When I look at the above list, I get scared. What if I make the wrong choices in the last two categories and lose half my nest egg? But when I ask that, the converse fear comes to mind. What if I keep my diversification entirely within the US and our system crashes under the weight of debt, disease, or war? Then I lose everything. That's scary too.
    I think I may have found some partial answers to my third question, which was asking for websites that profile non-US mutual funds. I'm still reviewing these sites to see how much useful information I can find without paying exorbitant fees. From what I see so far, they mainly focus on "alternative" investments, which means private placements, hedge funds, etc., but also include emerging and frontier market funds. I'm interested in hearing from more people with information that supports or refutes what I'm saying, or that answers the three questions in my original post. Thanks guys, and thanks David for this great forum.
  • The next bubble: Passive investing in ETFs
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/18/business/passive-etfs-stocks-gold-bonds/index.html
    The next bubble: Passive investing in ETFs
    Individual stock pickers like Warren Buffett are increasingly looking like dinosaurs in a market that's driven by investors scooping up passive exchange-traded funds that simply own the biggest stocks
  • What do you hold in taxable accounts?
    Yes, FSMEX opened again on April 1, 2020
    1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs Life
    26.36% 21.42% 18.37% 19.91% 15.23%
  • Opening checking/savings accounts for the intro bonus
    So, I've received two intriguing offers for cash...one from Fifth Third Bank: get $600 for opening a checking account and maintaining $15k balance for 90 days and one from Chase : get $600 for opening a checking account for $5k and opening a Chase savings account for $15k.
    I have the cash, which I have earmarked for an investment in Q1 of 2021, but if I open these accounts for the bonus and then close them in less than a year, will it negatively impact my credit score?
  • What do you hold in taxable accounts?
    @WABAC I used to slice and dice (or collect) funds am comfortable dealing with complexity. That said, my spouse has no interest managing portfolio and I'm leaning towards holding a core or two and building around it with a few specialties.
    @Irwilliams VTMFX would be a good core if available at Fidelity. (TAIAX) American Funds Tax-Aware Conservative Growth and Income is okay, but trails VTMFX pretty much all periods.
    Keep an eye out for FSMEX re-opening, and jump on it. If you've spent anytime around a hospital you'll know they run through a tremendous amount of stuff. Until then check out the other health care fund he runs for Fido.
    I'ld get a good utility fund, a good consumer staple fund. Fido has all those flavors, although the turnover is a little high for my taste. I like GLFOX for my infrastructure fund. The expense ratio has been declining slowly but steadily. The turnover is a reasonable 33%. And the yield is often north of 6%. I should have bought a NASDAQ 100 fund for my taxable back in March while I was shopping.
    I have a few other oddballs. It's really hard to beat the performance of indexes after taxes. But I break them down into small, medium, and large. I use BRILX as a surrogate "index" for large caps. It keeps the sectors and holdings relatively balanced.
    Lots of fund collectors here. You'll probably get an earful.
  • What do you hold in taxable accounts?
    PRWCX, FSDAX, and soon PRBLX in very large slugs as core positions.
    Several AF's (as 1/3 of another account) as core positions
    Lots of quality dividend stocks (nearly all QDI) that reinvest and accumulate.
    A few speculative trades in one of my taxable accounts
    The only tax efficiency I worry about is balancing capgains/losses. Fund cap gains means I can afford to lose some more cap losses on spec trades. Normally I try to keep that difference under $1000/year if I can help it, even when I'm moving lots of stuff around.
  • What do you hold in taxable accounts?
    I would transfer VGWLX to Vanguard. I use both Fidelity and Vanguard. Over time they were my 401(k) administrators. There is no equivalent global allocation value oriented funds in Fidelity. The subadvisor, Wellington, to VGWLX is well respected.