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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • TDAmeritrade woes and recommendations for alternatives
    I just took a chance and called Charles Schwab. Got thru in 10 secs and had a great chat w/account rep who answered my questions. I think I may make a fresh start & open new account there to avoid the integration nonsense with .@TDAmeritrade as an acquired customer .. I've been acquired enough times over the years (OPXS, OpenEcry, ThinkorSwim, now TDA) to know it's seldom a smooth experience for those being acquired.
    Schwab's customers seem to be longer-term investors and would NOT tolerate this kind of nonsense, I think.
  • COVID-onomics: Should You Invest in Biotech Stocks Now?
    https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/935875
    COVID-onomics: Should You Invest in Biotech Stocks Now?
    Dennis Murray
    August 18, 202
    Many physicians are looking for ways to replace lost income and save for the future. At the same time, partly as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, developments in technology and biotechnology, including potential vaccines and treatments, have prompted many to consider biotech as having sound possibilities for successful investing.
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/investmentu.com/invest-covid-19-stocks-biotech/?amp
    Could be a long way to go before heading down
  • The Struggles of a 60/40 Portfolio for Pensions and Individual Investors
    It is always my hope to seek out fund managers who are seasoned at these dynamics managing risk/reward (tail risk, interest rate risk, equity risk, etc.).
    Who are your favorite fund managers and what are your favorite managed funds when it come to portfolio risks?
    Despite the longest economic expansion in U.S. history, the gap between the present value of liabilities and assets at U.S. state pensions is measured in trillions of dollars. To make matters worse, pensions are now faced with the reality that standard diversification — including extremely low-yielding bonds — may no longer serve as an effective hedge for equity risk.
    While I was at CalPERS, concerns arose in 2016 about the effectiveness of standard portfolio diversification as prescribed by Modern Portfolio Theory. We began to recognize that management of portfolio risk and equity tail risk, in particular, was the key driver of long-term compound returns. Subsequently, we began to explore alternatives to standard diversification, including tail-risk hedging. At present, the need to rethink basic portfolio construction and risk mitigation is even greater — as rising hope in Modern Monetary Theory to support financial markets is possibly misplaced.
    At the most recent peak in the U.S. equity market in February 2020, the average funded ratio for state pension funds was only 72 percent (ranging from 33 percent to 108 percent). That status undoubtedly has worsened with the recent turmoil in financial markets due to the global pandemic. How much further will it decline and to what extent pension contributions must be raised — at the worst possible time — remains to be seen if the economy is thrown into a prolonged recession.
    Article:
    Investors-Are-Clinging-to-an-Outdated-Strategy-At-the-Worst-Possible-Time
  • If history repeats, the stock market will hit a new high by the end of August
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-stock-market-history-repeats-the-s-p-500-will-close-at-a-new-high-by-the-end-of-august-11597676415
    If history repeats, the stock market will hit a new high by the end of August
    By William Watts
    S&P 500, on average, has made new highs 8 days after closing within 1% of record, CFRA’s Stovall says
    So much exuberant out there...any chance double dip or large corrections beforeelection?!...
  • BONDS AAA, a bit twitchy this past week; Update AUG 28
    Hi guys,
    My income sleeve made a little money yesterday (8/17) being up +0.08% but is down -0.17% for the rolling five day period. I had one fund that was down and that was Pimco Income with the others being flat to up for the day. For the day the portfolio as a whole was up +0.30% while the S&P 500 Index was up +0.27% and for the rolling five day period the portfolio is up +0.49%. And, do +0.49% every week and that equates to a little better than +25% for a 52 week period or a little better than +2% per month. Based upon my asset allocation currently of 15/45/40 (Cash/Bonds/Stocks) I'm only looking for an average annual return, from my funds, in the 6% to 8% range. So, overall yesterday, on average, was better than a normal day for me. Currently, my ten year annual average total return is +9.86% which includes profits made from my equity spiff positions. So, buying the dips and selling the rips through special investment positions, from time to time, has added alpha to my overall portfolio returns.
    Thus, I plan to keep on using Old_Skeet's Market Barometer which drives a suggested equity weighting for me within my asset allocation. With stock market valuations being scored as elevated, by the barometer, this suggested weighting is currently 40% for my stock allocation, which I am presently at.
    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • Vanguard Energy Fund changes
    https://tinyurl.com/ixc-vgenx-xle
    See above link to PortfolioVisualizer... For the last 10 years or so, VGENX (VG's Energy Fund) has been quite similar to IXC, iShares Global Energy ETF. XLE (Energy SPDR), not so much.
  • Foreign frontier funds
    These days, investing directly in foreign stocks sold on foreign exchanges is pretty easy. I'm guessing that's what you've been doing. Investing in offshore funds is more difficult.
    Several years ago, I looked briefly into making use of a dual citizenship to invest in offshore funds. My reason then was to gain access to funds investing in regions beyond what US-based vehicles offered at the time. Reminding you that this was just a cursory look, what I found was that the loads and higher fees didn't make it worth investigating further at the time.
    Now, if your interest is in Africa ex-SA with a focus on sub-Saharan countries (a la African Lions), there's an ETF traded on JSE, The AMI Big50 ex-SA ETF. Not a recommendation, just an observation that you don't have to go the overseas OEF route.
    If your concern is rapid devaluation of the dollar, keep in mind that most US-based foreign equity funds are unhedged. If your concern is truly a substantial collapse of the US monetary system, then I expect most people here would disagree with the idea that in that event, other parts of the world will do fine.
    Sovereign Man confuses empires with the nation states that arose in the past two centuries, notably after WWI. If the US is indeed an "empire" as asserted, then its scope is worldwide, and we should expect a dark age of global proportion when this "empire" collapses.
    As you observed, taxation needs to be handled carefully. Note that even if one elects to treat the PFIC as a QEF, dividends are taxed as ordinary income, not as qualified divs.
    Regarding the funds you're looking at - they carry restrictions somewhat analogous to those of private placements in the US. The are sold only to the equivalent of accredited or sophisticated investors (i.e. based on your assets/income and/or demonstrable investment experience), and generally not offered publicly. Even if you circumvent these restrictions, it's worth keeping in mind that they're there for a reason. As you noted honestly, this is not your forte.
    Here are a couple of excerpts:
    (African Lions Fund):
    This Website has been set up in connection with the private offering and sale of the shares of AFRICAN LIONS FUND ...
    As a Private Fund the Fund is suitable for private investors only and any invitation to subscribe for fund interests may be made on a private basis only. ...
    the requirements considered necessary for the protection of investors that apply to public funds in the BVI [British Virgin Islands] do not apply to private funds. An investment in a private fund may present a greater risk to an investor than an investment in a public fund in the BVI. Each prospective investor is solely responsible for determining whether the Fund is suitable for its investment needs.
    (Sturgeon Capital)
    [T]here shall [not] be any sale of any investments or commitments in connection with this website in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, or sale would be unlawful, including the United Kingdom and the United States.
    ...
    The regulated services provided by Sturgeon Capital are only accessible to Eligible Counterparties or Professional clients as defined in COBS 3.5 & COBS 3.6 or in the case of Fund investors COBS 4.12 of the Financial Conduct Authority handbook. ... the same levels of protection afforded to Retail Clients would not be available to prospective clients of the firm.
  • TDAmeritrade woes and recommendations for alternatives
    The below is a well done overview and I presume unbiased. You're correct about futures trading at Fido; according to the list in the link.
    Disclaimer: Fido biased customer since 1978.
    TD vs Fidelity
  • ? DSENX-DSEEX a little help please if you can
    I too reducd QQQ and high growth funds and rotated to VGK, Europe ETF. They have COVID-19 situation in control and manufacturing is steadily returning.
  • TDAmeritrade woes and recommendations for alternatives

    So TDAmeritrade's ThinkorSwim platform (and maybe others) have been mostly offline since 925ET this morning following last night's update. TDA has acknowledged the problem but it's becoming a s---tshow over there with their messaging (er, lack of it) ... the easiest thing would be to roll back the update, but they've chose not to, and thus many folks are unable to trade.
    TDA's been fairly solid for me since 2007 .... but I'm flashing back to the dark days of 2012-14 when every update would cause havoc and break things. Schwab's gotta be livid since they just announced TD's active platform ThinkorSwim would be their platform going forward, too.
    Anyway, I'm curious folks' thoughts on E-Trade or Fido as a possible all-in-one non-wirehouse brokerage replacment for TDA/Schwab for stocks/options/futures/OEFs.
  • The rise of the upper middle class
    The change in the skewing within the middle class looks to me to be a positive development.
    Three quick thoughts emerged from my morning walk:
    1. It is encouraging the "real" incomes of Americans have in general increased through recent decades.
    2. The chart suggests two reasonable sources of additional tax funds as needed to address widely perceived inequities in the current distribution of assets and incomes in the population: the upper class (the rich) and the upper middle class.
    3. My personal list of priority inequities that need to be mitigated: (1) access to adequate housing and medical care, (2) access to enhanced educational opportunities for disadvantaged children, and (3) access to enhanced job training and retraining opportunities.
  • Vanguard Energy Fund changes
    FWIW, the management fees are going up by 1 basis point (each share class), because Wellington charges more than Vanguard's Quant Equity Group (QEG).
    Also, there's a technical error in the supplement. I have sent the following to Vanguard:
    The fund's Prospectus Supplement dated August 17, 2020 reads in part: "Additionally, in the fourth quarter of 2020, the Fund will change its primary benchmark to a custom market-cap weighted blend of the MSCI ACWI Energy Index and the MSCI ACWI Utilities Index to better reflect how Wellington intends to position the Fund within the energy industry (as currently described in the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus)."
    I believe this needs to be corrected. The alluded to description of how Wellington manages this fund does not appear in the Summary Prospectus. It does appear in the Statutory Prospectus, p. 11 (pdf p. 16). So the August 17, 2020 Supplement (to both the Summary and Statutory Prospectuses) should be corrected to reference the description only in the Statutory Prospectus.
    That prospectus reads in part: "Wellington Management uses a bottom up approach, in which stocks are chosen based on the advisor's fundamental analysis and its assessment of valuation. Although oil and gas price expectations are considered, company-specific factors such as the quality of the companies' assets, internal reinvestment opportunities, investment plans to capitalize on those opportunities, and quality of management are key inputs in the decision-making process."
  • Berkshire Makes a Bet on Gold Market That Buffett Once Mocked
    “Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. added Barrick Gold Corp. to its portfolio in the second quarter, sending shares of the world’s second-largest miner of the metal surging.”
    According to the above excerpt from John’s article, the purchase was sometime in the second quarter (April-June). Not necessarily all at one time. Might have caused an upward tic in Barrack at the time. More likely, the real impact will be on the retail investor crowd (you and me) now that the purchase was disclosed. I dunno. I can see a big run-up towards the election. But the big players can “pull the plug” anytime and send prices reeling - at least for shorter periods as they did recently.
    Folks will recall the March 7-15 period where gold and miners fell through the floorboards dropping 20% or more in a few days. I’m not sure when the recovery in (gold and miners) price started, but would guess sometime late in the first quarter (before WB apparently bought in). Note that he bought Barrick mining - not bullion - big difference.
    BTW - miners up 5% today at last look.
  • The rise of the upper middle class
    Decline of the middle class, or a skewing within the middle class?
    1967: 84% middle class
    2016: 85% middle class
    The working class is another story. As the WaPo concluded: "Falling behind is the lower middle class, once called the working class."
  • Vanguard Energy Fund changes
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/734383/000168386320012536/f6661d1.htm
    497 1 f6661d1.htm VANGUARD ENERGY FUND 497
    Vanguard Energy Fund
    Supplement Dated August 17, 2020, to the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus Dated May 29, 2020
    The board of trustees of Vanguard Specialized Funds (the “Board”) approved restructuring of the investment advisory team of Vanguard Energy Fund (the “Fund”), removing The Vanguard Group, Inc.'s Quantitative Equity Group (“QEG”) as an investment advisor to the Fund. Wellington Management Company LLP (“Wellington”) will serve as the Fund’s sole advisor. All references to QEG, and all other details and descriptions regarding QEG's management of certain assets of the Fund in the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus are deleted in their entirety.
    The change in the Fund's investment advisory arrangement is expected to change the Fund's expense ratios to 0.33% for Investor Shares and 0.25% for Admiral™ Shares.
    Additionally, in the fourth quarter of 2020, the Fund will change its primary benchmark to a custom market-cap weighted blend of the MSCI ACWI Energy Index and the MSCI ACWI Utilities Index to better reflect how Wellington intends to position the Fund within the energy industry (as currently described in the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus).
    Prospectus and Summary Prospectus Text Changes
    The following replaces a similar table under the heading “Fees and Expenses” in the Fund Summary section:
    Annual Fund Operating Expenses
    (Expenses that you pay each year as a percentage of the value of your investment)... (see link for table)
  • ? DSENX-DSEEX a little help please if you can
    The other good thing for ETFs, in my mind, is you can place a trailing stop order. Like @carew388 I'm also skeptical of this market, especially going into the typical September swoon not to mention what will for sure be a tumultuous election process.
    I did this recently with QQQ. I sold a chunk of AKREX and put it into QQQ with a trailing stop of 5%. It's almost close to where if the order kicks in I would break even. I just don't want to ride all my equity money down 10, 15, 20% in another free-fall.
  • ? DSENX-DSEEX a little help please if you can
    @carew388: using ETFs is a good way to avoid the short-term transaction fees Schwab and TDA assess. Not using TDA much anymore, but I remember some MF’s had a 180-day holding period there.