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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Trump extends unemployment payments, defers payroll tax
    Would be nice to expand on this topic; but I continue to fall back to the aspect that Trump remains to be mentally impaired; as was apparent in his demeaning behavior just before and during his involvement in the Republican debate.
    He remains the most dangerous person in the world; and changes the scale of what I thought was wrong during the Vietnam era......1965-1975, and the ramifications for years to follow.
    Fini
  • Trump extends unemployment payments, defers payroll tax
    The winners and losers in a payroll tax cut are....
    This is from a Forbes article in Early May. (not behind a pay wall)
    Payroll Tax Cut Winners and Losers
  • Trump extends unemployment payments, defers payroll tax
    https://www.npr.org/2020/08/08/900516854/in-executive-actions-trump-extends-unemployment-benefits
    This would seem to have investing implications. I‘ve heard elsewhere that the payroll tax is suspended (oops - “deferred“) only for those earning less than $100,000 per year (last year’s tax return). My pension and SS don’t total that much, but I could easily bump up over that $100K with a substantial distribution from traditional IRA for a major expense. Suspect others are in a similar situation. Also, anyone doing a Roth conversion (or who did one last year) might push their reported income over $100K in the process and miss out on this latest perk. These knee-jerk tax policies set your head spinning.
    No idea how “deferring” payroll taxes until January is going to help anyone. Stimulate the economy & stock market until just past the election? ... Than let it rain (or something like that) on the next fella who takes over in January with the payroll tax having to double? Good grief.
  • Flexible portfolio alternatives to FPACX
    Assuming your investment platform (Fidelity, etc.) allows you numerous choices for purchase; and with some of the funds already mentioned above, part of the choice would be U.S. centered or global, too. I remain U.S. focused at this time.
    The below chart (started before added comments) contains mostly U.S. equity centered, balanced funds (moderate allocation, 50 - 70% equity).
    As to BRUFX mentioned above, this is only available via direct investment (postal) with Bruce and not through electronic choices on other platforms. My concern with Bruce at this time is the age of the managers (2), being 88 and 60; if my information is correct. As to DODBX, their recent lower performance is likely due to more exposure to non-U.S. holdings.
    Viewing the chart backwards for a number of years finds FPACX in the middle of the pack. Recent performance is apparently due to being a bit edgy with the market melt in February, which is understandable. The other funds in this list apparently maintained or added to the equity positions during and after the melt.
    Our accounts are with Fidelity and we have access to many moderate allocation funds, but I remain biased to FBALX , which has an annualized return of 9.4% since inception in 1986 and remains in the upper 90% of the nearly 700 similar funds . During this period, this fund has been through a lot of market swings, and most individual investors would be very pleased to have this long term performance.
    You could build your own with a 2 fund or etf combo of equity and bonds (ex. QQQ and AGG) OR a decent active managed equity and bond fund combo. While I remain biased to high quality bonds, their future may not persist as over the past 40 years. 'Course the death of bonds has been in place for quite awhile. But, if quality bonds lose their value in the coming years with a "build your own", the same lose of value would likely be reflected in an active managed, moderate allocation balanced fund, too. We have a 529 educational account we manage, which was started with and still maintains the same mix of 50/50, being VITPX and VBMPX. The 10 year annualized combined return is 8.8%. We'll take this performance without complaint.
    1 year chart of FPACX , JABAX , CTFAX , ABALX , FBALX , FPURX
    Strictly my opinions and viewpoints. There are many investment paths to follow.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • Are Your Stock, Bond, or Cash Allocations Out of Whack?
    Hi guys,
    I always enjoy reading Dr. Madell's newsletter. Recently, he started offering a free portfolio review for his readers. In this edition, he comments on some of the portfolio's he has reviewed. For me, this was an interesting read.
    As for my cash, bond and stock allocation ... My baseline asset allocation (being retired) is 20/40/40 with the ability to overweight (or underweight) my stock and bond areas by up to 5% each, if felt warranted. I generally let my cash allocation float. Curently, I'm 15/45/40 putting me 5% overweight in the bond (income) area of my portfolio due to low cash yields. I am presently neutral with my stock allocation eventhough I feel stocks are overbought. Within my stock allocation I'm about 50% value / 50% growth along with being about 65% domestic and 35% foreign. My investment foucs over the past five years, since I retired, has been to grow the income stream that my portfolio generates while at the same time continue to grow my principal to offset inflation. Thus far, I have grown (on average) income generation by about 15% a year and principal by about 8.5% a year.
    Old_Skeet
  • Flexible portfolio alternatives to FPACX
    In the same Morningstar category: PRWCX, if it ever opens up again to new investors. Check out BRUFX. (Same category, too.) A "flexible portfolio alternative?" I dunno quite what to make of that... A while ago, people were not happy with FPACX holding 15% in cash. Now it's almost 20%. I think the fund managers aren't buying because the Market is flying high. Stuff is expensive. By the way, the fixed income portion, I see, is rather small compared to peers right now. 22% foreign equities. You ARE looking for a CORE fund. Others: DODBX (Dodge & Cox.) VGSTX (Vanguard, but there has been some dissatisfaction with customer service at Vanguard reported here.)
  • Dodge & Cox Emerging Markets Stock Fund in registration
    @Sven. High hopes for VGWLX and VGWIX. I do believe that every D&C fund 'cept DODWX has beaten its peers since launch (or at least back to 1960). Give it time. But yay, I picked wrong in 2002 going all in on "one fund for life" DODBX instead of VWELX. So much pain! Sucker for value, even now! @gmarceau. I think that is a good move. (If you can stand the pain.) c
  • Stock-market expert sees a ‘monstrous’ rally taking hold next week, if one recent trend holds
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/stock-market-experts-sees-a-monstrous-rally-rally-taking-hold-next-week-if-one-recent-trend-holds-11596827276
    /Stock-market expert sees a ‘monstrous’ rally taking hold next week, if one recent trend holds
    Last Updated: Aug. 7, 2020 at 6:55 p.m. ET
    Could epicenter stocks surge by 30% next week? Fundstrat's Tom Lee thinks so. Getty Images
    The best start to an August for the U.S. stock market in years might get even better, as soon as next week, if the forecast from Thomas Lee, founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, is accurate./
    Not sure if monstrous rally is coming, but DJI gained >36%% since the March crash.
    We have been buying qqq and vht/couple bio tech and Healthcare etf recently. Glad did not pull out to all cash few months back. Couple friends at work did this and missed the slow upward late spring summer rally
    If covid19 data improves/ stabilized next few weeks/month with minimal deaths economy may recover sooner than later
  • David’s August MFO Commentary ....Here!
    @msf,
    I always want to keep my options available for possible opportunities. Sterling Capital allowed Stratton Fund investors to open other "I" share class accounts once the Stratton accounts were consolidated under Sterling Capital moniker. A couple of exchanges from my rebranded Stratton fund allowed me to purchase "I" share class of Sterling Capital's Special Opportunities and Equity Income funds.
    If I remember correctly, Bridgeway Large Cap Value and Large Cap Growth funds were sold to American Beacon using their moniker (still managed by Bridgeway); however, you could not do an exchange of money from the American Beacon Bridgeway Large Cap Value or Large Cap Growth fund "I" share class into other American Beacon funds to receive their "I" share class equivalent.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/916006/000119312511312700/d256598d497.htm (Bridgeway Large Cap Value reorganization).
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/916006/000119312516453235/d125121d497.htm (Bridgeway Large Cap Growth reorganization)
    American Beacon funds prospectus excerpt:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/809593/000113322820001973/abf-html2217_485bpos.htm#chapter_5-sect1_2_2037
    Exchange Policies
    ...The eligibility and minimum investment requirement must be met for the class into which the shareholder is exchanging. Fund shares may be acquired through exchange only in U.S. states and Territories in which they can be legally sold. Each Fund reserves the right to charge a fee and to modify or terminate the exchange privilege at any time. Each Fund reserves the right to refuse exchange requests if, in the judgment of a Fund, the transaction would adversely affect a Fund and its shareholders. Please refer to the section titled "Frequent Trading and Market Timing" for information on the Funds' policies regarding frequent purchases, redemptions, and exchanges.
    It is possible that FPA may introduce a "I" share class of the Crescent fund. FPA plans to offer a "supra" institutional class of the Crescent fund which has an extremely high initial minimum:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/924727/000110465920081174/a20-24082_1485apos.htm
    Who knows what will happen with FPA once their international funds (International Value and Paramount funds) are transferred.
  • Dodge & Cox Emerging Markets Stock Fund in registration
    I like the global balanced fund idea too.
    Vanguard offers two global balanced funds - Global Wellington, VGWLX, and Global Wellesley, VGWIX. Both funds started in 2017 and they are managed by the well respected sub-advisor, Wellington.
    Expense ratio: Global Wellesley, 0.42% (Investor class), 0.32% (Admiral class). Global Wellington, 0.46% (Investor class), 0.36% (Admiral class).
    Emerging market exposure: Global Wellington, 2.2% and Global Wellesley, 5.9%. True to Wellington conservative nature, they invested in Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung in EM space.
  • David’s August MFO Commentary ....Here!

    FPPTX is less than double the size of total AUM ($200 million) larger than QRSVX ($132 million). Keeping the "I" shares will be interesting. Can I exchange money into other FPA "I" funds?
    What other "I" funds are there? The Queens Road announcement mentions FPA Queens Road Value Fund and its new "I" shares. So far, that's the only other FPA fund I can find with "I" shares.
    It will be interesting to see what rules are added for these shares. A few fund families (e.g. Grandeur Peak) sell both institutional and retail class shares with the same minimums. If that's what FPA winds up doing, exchanging institutional shares from one fund to another would not seem to be an issue.
    Then there are funds like the former Salomon Bros. funds. I have a few shares of one of these funds, gifted to me years ago. After changing hands many times (through Smith Barney, Citicorp, Legg Mason) they're now branded Franklin. Along the way, share classes were added and the legacy shares "upgraded" to O class and then merged into I class. I was originally told that I could transfer shares into the same share class of any fund, regardless of min. Later, that was changed so that I was required to meet the 7 figure min.
    The last time I checked with Legg Mason, they wouldn't even allow me to transfer the account to a brokerage (unless I had millions of dollars in the account).
    Fund company rules for legacy shares range from the sublime to the ridiculous. I hope FPA is reasonable.
  • David’s August MFO Commentary ....Here!
    RPIEX Thread from 1/12/20: https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/54925/what-s-a-bond-fund-like-this-doing-in-t-rowe-s-stable-rpiex
    My title - “What’s a bond fund like this doing in T Rowe’s stable?“
    Final comment (by @Crash) - “Ya, a loser like that is a rare exception in TRP. Glad I read this thread.
    To everyone who may have been misled - I’m sorry.
  • David’s August MFO Commentary ....Here!
    I have held FPPTX for numerous years. After Rodriguez moved up in the company, the fund was never the same afterwards. I also owned QRSVX some years ago, but it didn't really move for the several years I owned it so I sold it.
    The combination is supposed to be complete in the fourth quarter 2020. There will not be any sizeable capital gains distributions as the FPPTX is in a CG loss position according to M*. Have not seen any new SEC filings yet.
    FPPTX is less than double the size of total AUM ($200 million) larger than QRSVX ($132 million). Keeping the "I" shares will be interesting. Can I exchange money into other FPA "I" funds?
    I will post any filings as they come up.
  • IOFIX Imposes 1% Redemption Fee
    I honestly believe there is a strong case for a lawsuit here—mispriced on the way down and mispriced on the way back up so some shareholders get more than they deserve and some a lot less. This should never have been an open end mutual fund. The assets aren’t liquid enough. I also think while a 1% redemption fee is useful, shareholders with double digit losses will simply take the loss and move on regardless of paying the extra 1% if things get volatile again.
  • IOFIX Imposes 1% Redemption Fee
    Twentieth Century Giftrust- that's a name I hadn't heard of in a while.
    The Surprising Success of a Dumb Investment
    What are the lessons I take from all this? First and most important, the experience illustrates how much wealth you can build even if you don’t invest in just the right stock funds. Buying, holding and watching your money grow is really hard to do—witness the Giftrust lawsuits—but it usually pays off.
    But I also learned that every investment strategy goes in and out of style. And so it was with Giftrust’s momentum strategy. What’s more, Giftrust was 20% more volatile than the S&P over the past 15 years. I’ve never known a fund that didn’t ultimately pay the price for such high volatility. In investing, slow and steady really does win the race.
  • GAEG - NYL Anchor
    Thank you for the information! But that leads me to another question:
    There are only 2 companies that have a higher rating than US Treasuries - Microsoft and J and J.
    From a chart shown in the link below, MS outperformed NASDAQ by 73% and large caps by 123%.
    If it is safe, why wouldn't a large percentage of investors have at least some of this stock in their portfolio?
    https://www.netcials.com/stock-10-year-history/MSFT-Microsoft-Corporation/
  • IOFIX Imposes 1% Redemption Fee
    AFAIK, the longest redemption fee period ever was imposed on (no surprise) Vanguard Horizon funds. These were four funds created as long term investments on August 14, 1995. The fee was 1% on shares redeemed in less than five years.
    Here's the last prospectus (Feb 27, 2001) where the fee was imposed on all the funds.
    On April 6, 2001, Vanguard made changes to three of the four funds:
    Vanguard Global Asset Allocation (VHAAX) was designated to be terminated on July 27, 2001.
    Vanguard Global Equity fund (VHGEX) ended its redemption fee.
    Vanguard Strategic Equity Fund (VSEQX) ended its redemption fee.
    It would be a while longer before Vanguard dropped the redemption fee on its Capital Opportunity Fund (VHCOX). And now you know where the 'H' in the ticker came from.
    (Note: I exclude funds like Twentieth Century Gifttrust, which could not be redeemed, period, for at least ten years.)
  • M* Fund Spy: How Risky Is Risky in World-Bond Funds?
    +1. And I suppose that makes my holding in RPSIX a good thing. It holds about 14% in equities, too, in order to "juice" yearly results just a bit.
  • GAEG - NYL Anchor
    Stable value funds ... “invest in both short- and intermediate-term securities and follow the traditional concept of investing where the value of money over time generates a higher yield,” notes John Faustino, chief product and strategy officer at Fi360 in Lawton, Michigan. “They tend to hold investments that are slightly less liquid and, as a result, have a higher yield. Plus, they have an insurance wrapper that protects the value of the assets should there be a fluctuation or a decrease in the assets’ value.”
    https://www.plansponsor.com/in-depth/choosing-stable-value-money-market-fund/
    Here, the insurer is NY LIfe.
    Safety? NY Life is one of two insurers rated as highly as the US Treasury by all four major rating agencies. It would be rated even higher, except being a financial institution, S&P figures that if the Treasury collapses, it will drag NY Life down with it. (There are two non-financial companies with higher ratings than the Treasury.)