Biggest bang for your buck: 8 equity funds with the best capture ratios over the entire market cycle Capture ratio is a sort of "bang for your buck" summary. It's calculated by dividing a fund's downside capture (a fund that typically falls 1.1% when the market falls 1% has a downside capture of 1.10) by its upside capture (a fund that typically rises 1.1% when the market rises 1% has an upside capture of 1.10). Capture ratios greater than 1.0 reflect funds that produce more gains than losses; all other things being equal, high capture ratio funds are offering you the greatest reward for every unit of risk you've been subjected to.
Capture ratios even the playing field for cautious and aggressive investors. A cautious investor might look for fund with a downside capture of no more than .8. Given that constraint, anything above 1.0 is a winner! Aggressive investors might be willing to accept downside captures of 1.10 as long as they've been duly compensated. So, for them too, anything above 1.0 is a winner.
I screened to equity-oriented domestic funds, which included "flexible portfolios" and "aggressive allocation" funds but excluded global. For this first pass, I excluded closed funds, high-minimum ones and those with a downside capture greater 1.00.
Yacktman Focused (YAFFX)
Capture 1.26
Downside capture 0.7
APR 10.6%
Great Owl
Yacktman (YACKX, $100k minimum with no backdoors that I can find)
Capture 1.22
Downside capture 0.71
APR 10.1
Great Owl
Reynolds Blue Chip (RBCGX)
Capture 12.1
Downside capture 0.80
APR 11.1
The appeal of the Reynolds BCG fund is almost entirely driven by its performance during the 2007-09 crash. It appears to have been almost entirely in cash and simply sailed through it. $10,000 invested in RBCGX at the peak of the last market would be worth $36,000 today, the same investment in the S&P 500 index would be $26,000. Since then it's been entirely uninspiring.
Madison Dividend Income (BHBFX, $25,000 minimum, $500 for an IRA but $100 at Schwab)
Capture 1.20
Downside capture 0.66
APR 8.9
Great Owl
Intrepid Endurance (ICMAX)
Capture 1.18
Downside capture 0.46
APR 6.6
I hesitated to include ICMAX despite its long-term record. I love the absolute-value discipline and willingness to hold cash until the market offers rationally priced stocks. Cash is down to 42% of the portfolio now. That said, it's made about 1% a year over the past 3- and 5-year periods and has undergone three sets of manager turnovers: Cinnamond to Wiggins to the current team, with president Mark Travis in and out, in and out.
Monetta Core Growth (MYIFX)
Capture 1.17
Downside capture 0.89
APR 11.4
Investors consciously looking to keep their downside capture as low as they can would start with the Yacktman and Madison funds but might add
First Trust Value Dividend ETF
Capture 1.17
Downside capture 0.72
APR 9.2
Great Owl
Prospector Opportunity (POPFX)
Capture 1.14
Downside capture 0.75
APR 9.0
Great Owl
The best fund that's fallen between those cracks is Parnassus Equity. It, along with the Yacktman funds, are the only fund in the lower downside capture group to exceed 10% annual returns over the full market cycle. It adds the attraction of a long-standing commitment to an ESG-screened portfolio.
Parnassus Core Equity (PRBLX)
Capture 1.17
Downside capture 0.79
APR 10.6
Great Owl
David's disclosure: I'm playing with possible articles for February and March, with an eye to finding options for indolent investors (that is, those who might shift their portfolios once every year or two) and, possibly, newer investors who have the necessity of starting their portfolios in a market that might well slap them in the face soon.
Is this a useful focus? How might I improve it?
I did update the list following Stillers suggestion to add ticker symbols. At that point I also figured out that Virtus KAR Small-Cap Growth had closed and that I was having trouble finding a way about Yacktman's $100,000 minimum, so I added Intrepid and Monetta since they were the next funds on the list.
David
Best of the Best Fidelity Funds to Buy FPURX has changed to a virtual clone of FBALX , although Puritan seems to have only 1 manager.
How to avoid or hedge rollover limbo? I believe that 401(k) withdrawals have to be initiated on the 401(k) side, unlike IRA transfers/conversions. Often a 401(k) holding is a security that cannot be transferred in kind so liquidation is mandatory. Between having to liquidate holdings and rollovers taking weeks, it's understandable that one would want to hedge the market.
To hedge equity transfers, you can identify some tax-sheltered money that you've got sitting in cash or near cash, or absent that, some reasonably vanilla bond fund that's easily bought and sold. It doesn't have to be in the same place where you're going to transfer the 401(k), it just needs to be in some tax-sheltered account.
Simultaneously use that cash to buy an equity holding and sell the same amount of the equity holding in the 401(k). Then transfer the cash. You now have a new stash of cash available. Rinse and repeat. After the final transfer, use the cash to repurchase the near cash or bond holding that you sold off at the beginning of this process.
If the amount of cash you've got to play with is small and if it takes a couple of weeks to to a transfer, you could be at this for months. Still, you're not going anywhere, so it's just a matter of time and patience.
An alternative, if your 401(k) custodian also provides no-fee IRAs is to have the 401(k) rollover done "in house". For example, Fidelity, Vanguard, etc. often operate companies' 401(k) plans. In house rollovers are usually much faster than rollovers between financial institutions
Even if you aren't excited by the IRA options, so long as they're adequate, they'll do for the purpose of keeping you in the market. You can either do a straight pre-tax rollover followed by a conversion, or a direct rollover conversion.