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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Exciting New Territory for the S&P 500
    I think the pundits are missing the elephant in the room - that being the election year impact. Normally you’d hear a lot about it. But with the country at high anxiety (largely, but not only due to Covid-19), there’s been little note of the fact that whichever administration is in office leading to an election, levers will be pulled, proposals floated, decisions made that attempt to goose the markets,
    Conventional wisdom says the Fed sits back during the pre-election period and does nothing - not wanting to appear partisan. But, whether because they’ve been intimidated by the administration, or whether out of real concern for the Covid disruptions (I suspect both), the Fed has been anything but an impartial bystander this time around.
    Can it last? For now ... yes. And the expansionary fiscal / monetary policies underway now will have lasting impact on the economy - for better or for worse. However ... normally things appear sunniest just before the storm. Anyone banking on the current euphoria lasting thru November is playing a dangerous game.
    PS - I wish I could tell folks how to invest now. But I can’t. So much depends on one’s risk tolerance, age, time horizon, needs. Ray Dalio in January proclaimed to his investors: “Cash is trash.” Well, ... Yes Ray. I agree with you. However, it wasn’t so “trashy” in March / early April. If you had dry power in the form of cash than, the markets were waiting with open arms for it to be put to work.
    Dalio
  • Dodge & Cox Emerging Markets Stock Fund in registration
    @rfono -- there was a writeup in one of the financial / investing journals about D&C following the 2008 calamity. D&C allegedly improved their process by bringing fixed income committee members / insights in on stock committee selection process.
    I am reminded of something I believe David wrote about D&C (paraphrased): "...if these guys can't get it write, then we should all just go home and index...".
    I think as an active shop, in terms of integrity and process they're likely top 10% (compared with a Fairholme Fund, or Royce & Friends/Partners/Associates). Been a huge fan of D&C and Oakmark, among others. Oakmark has certainly taken it's lumps. I think with active, since the strategy can underperform in the short an medium terms you have to go with process.
    Not a huge fan of the AUM grab which is evident at D&C and others, but to some extent that goes with the reasonable fees.
  • Perpetual Buy/Sell/Why Thread
    TRP - PRNEX was down $4K - Exchanged to TCELX - New China Fund at TRP. Share price and made up what I lost. Then exchanged Africa/Middle East and already have made up for 1/2 of what I lost.
  • Bond Yields Are Sending a Scary Signal on Stocks
    +1 Yes-maybe FD1000 should start his own hedge fund and reap the benefits of the 2/20 fee structure.
  • Another Kodak Moment: SEC Probing Kodak Loan Disclosure, Stock Surge
    "some of which were granted on July 27 the day before the loan was officially announced."
    As I wrote a few days ago, let's put that "some" in perspective.
    On July 27, right before the news hit Kodak granted options with an average exercise price of $4.67 (most with a $3 exercise price) to company insiders amounting to about: 1.75M to James V. Continenza, Chairman and CEO, 45K to each of David E. Bullwinkle CFO, Roger W. Byrd VP, and Randy Vandagriff, VP
    https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/31235.htm
    KODK traded as high as $60 after the options were granted. The inflated price may fall all the way back to earth (it's down to $14.40) before these execs cash in by exercising their options.
  • Another Kodak Moment: SEC Probing Kodak Loan Disclosure, Stock Surge
    The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the SEC is probing the Kodak loan disclosure and stock surge
    Selected excerpts from that article:

    The Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating the circumstances around Eastman Kodak’s announcement of a $765 million government loan to make drugs at its U.S. factories, according to people familiar with the matter.
    The price spike briefly produced a potential windfall for company executives who owned stock-option grants, some of which were granted on July 27, the day before the loan was officially announced.
    The SEC’s investigation is at an early stage and might not produce allegations of wrongdoing by the company or any individuals, the people familiar with the matter said. Among the areas being probed by regulators: how Kodak controlled disclosure of the loan, word of which began to emerge on July 27, causing Kodak’s stock price to rise 25% that day.
  • Perpetual Buy/Sell/Why Thread
    Put some cash to work in VBILX, VBIRX, and VLAIX in IRA accts and VWIUX in taxable. Currently in “Rewirement” with a an asset allocation of 30%/60%/10% (Equity/FI/Cash).
  • Mutual Fund Winners Don’t Stay Ahead for Long
    The purpose of MTUM is to use "Exposure to large- and mid-cap U.S. stocks exhibiting relatively higher price momentum" and not value or growth and why it needs to compare to SPY(blend index) + MC.
    MTUM easily beat SPY for 1-3-5 and since inception.
    For growth QQQ easily beat VOOG,VONG for 1-3-5-10 years and it also beat TRBCX for 1-3-5-10 years.
  • anti-contrarian lesson (?)
    From the article
    The lesson: The stock market doesn’t follow a predictable playbook. Even when it seems to follow a pattern, that pattern is subject to change without notice. Result: Efforts to outsmart the market often turn into exercises in frustration. In my view, though, this is actually a benefit: It means that you don’t need to spend much time, if any, trying to stay ahead of the market.
    Generally, it's correct. If you do a bit more analysis you knew that the biggest high tech companies are the most dominated for years decades and why I been posting about QQQ as a good sub for some of your US LC and definitely instead of SC and international.
    SP500 get about 40% of the revenue from abroad and QQQ about 50%.
    Investment legend Peter Lynch said it best: “I think if you spent over 13 minutes a year on economics, you’ve wasted over 10 minutes. I mean, it’s not helpful. Everybody wants to predict the future, and I’ve tried to call the 1-800 psychic hotlines. It hasn’t helped. The only thing I would look at is what’s happening right now.”
    I have been saying it for years disregard the economy, unemployment, hundreds of articles and "experts" I only look at what’s happening right now by using charts and trend. The price is your best indicator real time, it is what sellers and buyers agreed on and definitely don't invest based on predictions since many are wrong and/or months/years away.
  • Perpetual Buy/Sell/Why Thread
    Invested within my stock and bond asset allocation of 15% cash, 45% income and 40% equity; and, currently building cash as I believe stock and bond valuations are stretched. I am awaiting a stock market pull back before I put new money to work on the equity side of my portfolio. When interest rates start to rise I will trim from the income side.
  • Perpetual Buy/Sell/Why Thread
    Order placed to liquidate my moderate-sized position in VMVFX that I've had since 2014 for 15% LTCGs. I've noticed it's starting to own more large global corps (Alibaba, JnJ, etc) that are not in the small/mid-cap range that once attracted me to it. Plus not sure I still want to be in small/mid-caps these days, either.
  • T Rowe Price U.S. Bond Enhanced Index Fund Changing Name, Reducing Fees
    I posted purely for informational purposes. Not intended to be a recommendation. I have a rather small investment in the fund and received the client email. I passed it along along for the benefit of T. Rowe Price clients who may frequent the board. The current ER is 0.30%. The new ER will be 0.25%. No doubt you can buy the index cheaper elsewhere.
    One notable feature is absence of any other fees (low balance, IRA maintenance, etc.) as long as one keeps at least $50,000 with T. Rowe Price or elects to receive electronic statements. (They do ask clients to maintain at least $1,000 in accounts and will close accounts that remain under $1,000 after a specified number of days.)
  • T Rowe Price U.S. Bond Enhanced Index Fund Changing Name, Reducing Fees
    @Crash
    The performance of PBDIX is fully inline with the bond sectors it holds.
    Is is not outperforming it's index or category benchmarks.
    What you are witnessing with this fund is the blended performance of AAA-BBB rated U.S. bonds for the YTD; nothing more, nothing less.
    You may have missed this data from a few days ago:
    The price performance benefit of low yields:
    YTD.......
    --- MINT = +1.15% (Pimco Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB quality)
    --- SHY = +3.04% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = +7.35% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = +12.2% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = +8.5% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- LTPZ = + 24.1% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds
    --- TLT = +27.3% (20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = +36.4% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +39.2% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds)
    ***Other, for reference, not AAA rated:
    --- HYG = -.3% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- LQD = +9.8% (corp. bonds, various quality)
  • airlines...
    @sven I figured as much. I'm missing my brother's Memorial Mass, back East. I suppose we should feel lucky that we reached our new home here, before restrictions were in place. October, 2019, and wife followed in December.
  • ZEOIX misses
    It's official, Tailored Brands filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Sunday.
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/03/investing/tailored-brands-bankruptcy/index.html
  • Mutual Fund Winners Don’t Stay Ahead for Long
    Here's the NYTimes link:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/business/mutual-fund-winners-stocks-bonds.html
    I ran across this study a couple of months ago. You can find a list of Prof. Choi's papers (including links to free versions) here:
    https://faculty.som.yale.edu/jameschoi/research/
    The referenced paper goes by a different title in that list. There it is called Carhart (1997) Mutual Fund Performance Persistence Disappears Out of Sample
    If you want to read a version (virtually the same) with the title mentioned in the NYTimes article, here's another link. This version is not easily downloadable.
    http://docplayer.net/141854703-Did-mutual-fund-return-persistence-persist-a-replication-and-extension-of-carhart-1997.html
  • Bond Yields Are Sending a Scary Signal on Stocks
    I'm simply pointing out that if the actual monetary worth of a rock used for making cement is 10¢, then it's material or intrinsic worth is 10¢. If, at any given time, speculators believe there is going to be a shortage of these rocks, and bid the temporary monetary value up to $10, that's all fine, but the actual value of that rock is still 10¢, which it will return to once the speculative bubble bursts. The price at any given moment has little to do with it's actual intrinsic value.
    As I said- it's certainly possible to make money in a bubble- just be very careful.
  • Bond Yields Are Sending a Scary Signal on Stocks
    Old_Joe: I'm a value investor, but Value has been taking it on the chin for quite a while.
    +1 I keep hearing for years the following
    1) what about value and growth beat it by so much
    2) the market is expensive but it keeps going up
    3) rates can only go up but they keep going down and why bond have been doing great
    4) PE,PE10 are high, inverted yield signals the next meltdown and...stocks go up
    5) diversification is great and it wasn't and I'm talking about wide indexes such as SC, MC, international. The SP500 had better performance with lower volatility.
    6) Inflation will be higher and kill the economy and it's not high for years.
    These "experts" missed the fact that the Fed is controlling these markets since 2009 and conventional ideas are not working.
    Basically, I disregard all "experts" and articles, their job is to sell you something and/or can't predict the future and definitely can't predict what will happen in the next several months ;-)