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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Eastman Kodak stock price surge
    According to the Time Magazine article (link, please), Martha "unloaded all 3,928 of her company shares just days before the FDA's decision had been announced to avoid losing an estimated $45,673."
    She was not jailed for insider trading. Her conviction was "for obstruction of justice, making false statements and conspiracy for lying to investigators." These days, the Justice Department works hard at letting those things slide.
    https://money.cnn.com/2018/05/31/news/companies/trump-martha-stewart-pardon/index.html
    Fox News reports that the day Martha was dumping her shares, Waksal's friends and family combined dumped shares with a total value (not loss) of $3M.
    "https://www.foxnews.com/story/the-rise-and-fall-of-imclone-systems
    Let's put that in perspective. On July 27, right before the news hit Kodak granted options with an average exercise price of $4.67 (most with a $3 exercise price) to company insiders amounting to about:
    1.75M to James V. Continenza, Chairman and CEO
    45K to each of David E. Bullwinkle CFO, Roger W. Byrd VP, and Randy Vandagriff, VP
    https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/31235.htm
    Conservatively figuring a gain of $15/share (with a $22.72 share price this morning), that's a profit of $26M for the CEO and $675K for each of the VPs. That makes Martha look like a piker, and Waksal's whole entourage seem penny ante compared to Continenza. A difference is that here the option grants were done by the board, so the timing is suspicious but potentially "legal".
  • Bond Yields Are Sending a Scary Signal on Stocks
    This article provides some talking points for stock market skeptics. A couple of excerpts:
    ...yields on 30-year government bonds started to decline on Jan. 2, anticipating the fallout from the budding coronavirus crisis that had taken hold in China. Yields fell from 2.34% on that day to 0.94% on March 9, as the price of the benchmark 30-year bond leaped 29%. Only on Feb. 19—seven weeks later—did the S&P 500 Index begin its 35% slide. Fast forward and 30-year yields have fallen from 1.66% on June 8 to a recent 1.19% as their prices climbed 9%. The question is whether stocks will follow again, and with a similar lag of about seven weeks. The fundamental economic scene favors a repeat.
    Recall the craze for Socks the Puppet and his dot-com buddies in the late 1990s. When that bubble broke, the Nasdaq Composite Index plunged 78%. Also recall the so-called Nifty Fifty group of stocks in the early 1970s. When the only companies of interest to investors made gimmick cameras, ran amusement parks and built motor homes, it was clear the basic economy was in trouble. What followed was the severe 1973-1975 recession and deep bear market. I believe the bond rally signals a renewed drop in stocks, with the S&P 500 down 30% to 40% from here as the great depth and length of the recession hits home.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-yields-sending-scary-signal-100003918.html
  • Vanguard U.S. Value Fund (investor class) to be reorganized
    I agree with that sentiment, and would offer higher praise than "decent". But IMHO that applies to those actively managed funds that Vanguard outsourced to companies like Wellington, Primecap, and Bailie Gifford.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/56592/time-to-get-jiggy-with-vwigx
    M*, Vanguard's Best Active Large-Cap Funds
    I'm inclined to take a closer look at funds submanaged by these money managers regardless of the family selling the funds. OTOH, Vanguard quant funds like US Value are run in house (at least in part) by Vanguard's quant group. Ignoring for the moment the question of whether quant funds are truly active funds, Vanguard doesn't seem to excel with them.
    On the one hand, you have a fund like VGIAX, where Vanguard keeps a tight leash on what the fund can do. The result with this fund is a large cap blend that tracks the S&P 500 closely (R² of 99.82%) with a slightly higher beta and lower alpha than VFIAX. Why bother?
    On the other hand, you have a fund like this VUVLX, where the leash is not so tight. From M*'s writeup: "changes made in 2016 resulted in a more flexible portfolio that has struggled to deliver." Given greater flexibility, the quant group didn't deliver: 2017, 2019, 2020 (YTD) - bottom quintile; 2018 - 73rd percentile.
    M* reports a similar relaxing of constraints for VSEQX in 2016, with fairly similar results (decline in relative performance).
    Investopedia blames some of this on Trump, or more precisely, his random tweets that make it harder for quant funds to function. FWIW.
    https://www.investopedia.com/why-quant-funds-are-stumbling-as-bull-market-rallies-4589215
  • Eastman Kodak stock price surge
    Day before the announcement on Kodak, trading went up to about 15X normal.
    Great to see insider trading made great again. Crony capitalism at its best.
  • MetWest Flexible Income Fund - MWFEX, MWFSX
    "I’d be very interested to see what the yields were in October and November of 2019, but I can’t find that."
    Click here to download (.csv file) all the daily dividends from date of inception:
    https://www.tcw.com/data/div/DailyDiv_MWFSX.csv
    That download link is from the MetWest/TCW page for the fund:
    https://www.tcw.com/en/Products/Funds/MetWest-Flexible-Income-Fund/MWFSX---M
  • MetWest Flexible Income Fund - MWFEX, MWFSX
    I definitely see what you’re saying. I’d be very interested to see what the yields were in October and November of 2019, but I can’t find that. Either way, I think we just analyze funds differently for our different expectations based on different portfolio goals. All good.
  • Time to get jiggy with VWIGX?
    VWIGX has been an absolute home run. Blew through the pandemic so far. It helps that it has large holdings in Tesla and Amazon. But has performed great since it's inception since 1981.
  • ZEOIX misses
    It's not just tux rentals but clothing sales (Men's Wearhouse, Jos. A. Bank, etc.). "There is not going to be as much demand given the work from home environment." (CNN story, link below.)
    Tailored Brands had been working with bankruptcy advisors as early as mid-April. It wasn't as confident about its cash cushion as was Zeo Capital Advisors.
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/14/investing/mens-wearhouse-bankruptcy-threat/index.html
    Given the company's concerns over viability, it doesn't seem unreasonable that it took advantage of a standard grace period in the terms of the bonds. The semiannual interest payment was due July 1, but won't be in default until July 31.
    As of Oct 31, ZEOIX owned $13.6M (par) in Men's Warehouse bonds, valued at $13.3M. The fund increased its position slightly, holding $14.8M (par), valued at $14.6M at the end of January.
    But then ZEOIX doubled down, literally, increasing its position to $27.0M (par) as of April 30th. However, those bonds were valued at only $11.3M (42¢ on the dollar), a drop of 4/7 in value in three months.
    Maybe Zeo thought it was getting a bargain basement deal, if the price had dropped before purchasing the extra bonds. Or maybe it bought all those bonds shortly before Tailored Brands started looking into bankruptcy in April. Hard to tell from the timing.
  • ZEOIX misses
    http://www.zeo.com/documents/Reports/2020.Q2.ZeoQuarterlyLetter.pdf?goal=0_c45a9658bc-7815b58e3a-332418909
    a company that had enough cash on hand to pay interest decides not to. Is it unreasonable to expect that in March they should have known Proms were DOA for the time being?
  • MetWest Flexible Income Fund - MWFEX, MWFSX
    I don't have a bone in this since I don't own MWFSX.
    The monthly distributions are clearly going down, and they are a huge part of the total returns.
    Date Dividends
    July 31 will be around 0.72% to 0.75. Down from 2%-->1.8%-->1.6 and now to 0.75%
    Jun 30, 2020 0.135 Dividend
    May 29, 2020 0.153 Dividend
    Apr 30, 2020 0.162 Dividend
    Mar 31, 2020 0.184 Dividend
    Feb 28, 2020 0.205 Dividend
    Performance in the category is at 95% for one month and 86% for 3 months.
  • The Daily Shot
    This daily update of economic and stock market trends used to require a subscription to the Wall Street journal, but after 8/1 is a stand alone daily email. For $135 a year it is a very useful source of detailed information ( all in chart form) on all sorts of financial and economic trends and worldwide data. He also has "food for thought" section that will tell you one day, for example, the relative price of cannabis nationwide, or each state's gas tax.
    I have found it very useful especially regarding interest rates, economics and trends in money flows across the world
    https://thedailyshot.com/the-daily-shot-sample-newsletter/
  • FPA New Income, Inc. limited availability to new investors as of August 1, 2020
    @wxman123
    VFIIX has also provided a similar record since 1981 37 up years. The 2 down years were (-2.23%) in 2013 and (-0.95%) in 1994.
  • Powell: “We’re not even thinking about raising interest rates ...”
    Happened to catch the Jay Powell news conference post Fed meet today. The Fed Chair seemed very downcast on prospects for the economy - perhaps more so over the high unemployment rate and some recent downward pressure on wages. Both the bond people and the gold people liked that. Why both took comfort - pray do tell - since they would seem to be dealing from opposite sides of the table. Gold tacked on about $10. Miners barely moved. VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) was up fractionally. The afternoon 2-year treasury rate at .24% (last glance) is an eye-opener.
    * As I noted elsewhere, I vacated my position in OPGSX today. I do expect gold to go well over $2,000 - but I don’t invest based solely on hunches.
  • Vanguard U.S. Value Fund (investor class) to be reorganized
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/836906/000168386320012215/f6527d1.htm
    497 1 f6527d1.htm U.S. VALUE FUND MERGER
    Vanguard U.S. Value Fund
    Supplement Dated July 29, 2020, to the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus Dated January 31, 2020
    Proposed Reorganization of Vanguard U.S. Value Fund into Vanguard Value Index Fund (collectively, the Funds)
    The Board of Trustees of Vanguard Malvern Funds (the Trust) approved an agreement and plan of reorganization (the Agreement) whereby Vanguard U.S. Value Fund, a series of the Trust, would be reorganized with and into Vanguard Value Index Fund, a series of Vanguard Index Funds (the Proposal). The Proposal would consolidate the assets of the Funds and place U.S. Value Fund shareholders in a comparable fund with better historical long-term investment performance, deliver a large expense ratio reduction for U.S. Value Fund shareholders, and create a larger combined fund which we anticipate would achieve greater economies of scale.
    The Proposal requires approval by U.S. Value Fund shareholders and will be submitted to shareholders at a special meeting to be held on or about January 22, 2021 (the Meeting). Prior to the Meeting, U.S. Value Fund shareholders will receive a combined proxy statement/prospectus requesting their votes on the Proposal. The combined proxy statement/prospectus will describe the Proposal, provide a description of the Value Index Fund, and include a comparison of the Funds. If shareholders approve the Proposal, and if certain conditions required by the Agreement are satisfied, the reorganization is expected to occur as soon as practicable after the Meeting.
    Under the Agreement and after the closing, U.S. Value Fund shareholders will receive shares of the Value Index Fund in exchange for their shares of the U.S. Value Fund, and the U.S. Value Fund will cease operations.
    We anticipate that the reorganization will qualify as a tax-free reorganization under the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended.
    Closed to New Accounts
    Effective immediately, Vanguard U.S. Value Fund is closed to new accounts, and it will stop accepting purchase requests from existing accounts shortly before the reorganization is scheduled to occur.
    © 2020 The Vanguard Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
  • Life After Death? Kodak Shifts Into Drug Production
    @Sven
    ...but the outstanding challenges in manufacturing are significant to overcome.
    Where did you get that information? You would be surprised at the complexity of chemistry process in making sensitized photographic emulsions and dispersion. And to do that repeatably takes precise statistical measurement and process control under sterile conditions on each batch. There isn't a doubt in my mind the product that will come out of Kodak will be far superior to what we now buy from China or India.
    Little known today, Kodak also had a large health care division that it sold off in the late 90's early 2000's to Care Stream and Johnson and Johnson. J&J actually still has manufacturing facilities inside Kodak Park now. Kodak owned Bayer Aspirin and manufactured vitamins for other companies for a long time also.
    2. Does Kodak really has the know-how ? It is not that simple...
    They definitely did have the know-how but a lot of those research chemists and engineers are now retired. I know that because I golf with a few of the them. But I would guess their 100's of patents remain and they will start hiring people in the pharmaceutical field, hopefully some new grads from the University of Rochester.
    Not simple but likely less complex than what they already do now and have done in the past.
    And the facility... once the largest manufacturing industrial park in the eastern US. A city within a city. But now with buildings torn down and others now vacant, it's not as formidable as it once was But it's still one of the biggest industrial facilities in the region.
    The answer to all your questions from my experience working there is yes, yes, yes and yes.... Am I bias? Yes, but I truly believe it's a good fit. Your not looking for a health care company to do this. You're looking for a highly skilled chemical process manufacturing company, which Kodak once was.
  • MetWest Flexible Income Fund - MWFEX, MWFSX
    If you look at a chart showing 10/04/2019 to 01/19/2020, you see that the fund was only up about 0.73% over that 3 1/2 month period. Some periods of subpar performance would not be new for this fund. Long term is all that matters.
    http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=mwfsX&region=usa&culture=en-US
  • Life After Death? Kodak Shifts Into Drug Production
    Questions:
    1. Even if Kodak has the infrastructure to manufacture chemicals for films, is it equivalent to manufacture pharmaceutical-grade ingredients? This is a complex matter and the patient as end users can die. Even China and India experienced challenges from time to time in order to following FDA protocols. A year ago, China made a minor change in their process. One of the ingredient turned out to be carcinogenic and the drug has to be recall.
    2. Does Kodak really has the know-how ? It is not that simple...
    3. Will this be sustainable and profit in order for Kodak to stay in business? The cause is notable but the outstanding challenges in manufacturing are significant to overcome.