Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • ? DSENX-DSEEX a little help please if you can
    >> the “Index Live Date” September 3, 2012
    Interesting that M* appears to track CAPE from (only from) 10/10 of that year.
  • How to pick a mortgage lender (refi)
    If you are a member of a CU that offers residential lending, I would look there first.
    If not, find out if you are dealing with a broker or an actual lender. If you deal with a broker, you have to pay them something for their time/efforts.
    Many mortgage lenders will sell your loan once the loan closes, which you should receive a notice of who acquired your loan.
    Also, if you have been in the house for less than 10 years, you can see if you can get the "reissue rate" for title insurance. The shorter amount of time involved in researching the title, the less the cost. Google reissue rate for title insurance. I mentioned this since you mentioned mortgage recasting.
    Check with your state regulator who oversees state mortgage brokers/mortgage lenders. You can also find out if there any any complaints against a particular lender. The regulator will not give details about the complaint/complainant, but if someone tells you there are 20 complaints for 2020, you may rethink your selection. Of course, you don't know what the lender's loan volume for the time period in question.
    You can ask your state regulator if your state has instituted a loan prepayment penalty; many states do not, but you need to check as a precaution.
    Prepaying a loan is between you and the lender/servicer. You may want to ask about that when discussing it with the mortgage lender you ultimately deal with prior to the closing.
    You can also check this link which is for public only to see if the company is licensed and other information.
    https://www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org/
  • Suggestion for a fund for my grandson?
    FSKAX has outperformed FZROX over the latter's lifetime, YTD, and over the latter's lifetime excluding YTD (just in case one figured that this year skewed the lifetime numbers).
    The two funds follow different indexes: FZROX follows a Fidelity proprietary index; FSKAX follows a DJ index. The main difference though seems to be that FZROX has more difficulty tracking its benchmark.
    Over its lifetime (since 8/2/18), it has returned almost 70 basis points less, cumulatively, than its benchmark. Give or take, that's about a 35 basis point tracking error per year. Over the same period of time, FSKAX beat its respective benchmark by a basis point.
    There's the marketing hype of 100% lower expenses (0% vs 1.5 basis points). Then there's the reality of money in one's pocket.
    Done.
  • ? DSENX-DSEEX a little help please if you can
    FWIW, and this is not advice, I'd consider it a hold or slight sell.
    As I asked in a recent thread on PIMIX, have your reasons for holding it changed? It's a 2x fund, 100% stock exposure + 100% bond exposure. That's always been true, it hasn't changed. If that was an appealing concept, it should still be. That fact that the some risks recently manifested shouldn't change one's perceptions - the idea of risk is that sometimes bad things actually do happen.
    If one bought it because one thought that an index-ish fund, a "smart beta" could beat market returns, then one should examine why one believes (or believed) that. Is this time really different, or is the market simply going through a different phase?
    Note that I'm not the one calling the CAPE index smart beta - Doubleline is. Doubleline acknowledges that pre-2012 performance of the index is just backtesting; and that Barclays is motivated to use to that present the index in the best possible light:
    Shiller Barclays CAPE® U.S. Sector Total Return Index..., a non-market cap-weighted, rules-based (aka “smart beta”) index.
    ...
    Pre-inception index performance refers to the period prior to the index inception date (defined as the period from the “Index Base Date” (September 3, 2002) to the “Index Live Date” September 3, 2012)). This performance is hypothetical and back-tested using criteria applied retroactively. It benefits from hindsight and knowledge of factors that may have favorably affected the performance and cannot account for all financial risk that may affect the actual performance of the index. It is in Barclays’ interest to demonstrate favorable pre-inception index performance. The actual performance of the index may vary significantly from the pre-inception index performance.
    From the same 2019 page as cited previously.
    The reason I might consider selling the fund if I owned it is because something has fundamentally changed - interest rates. Even with the use of swaps, the leverage to get 100% bond exposure is not free. That presents a hurdle, small in a normal interest rate environment, but significant in a near ZIRP world.
    Compare and contrast three large cap oriented 2x (equity + bond) funds: PXTIX, DSENX, and MWATX.
    Historically, PXTIX has performed as promised, beating its benchmark, the Russell 1000 Value, by half a percent for the past five years (in a low interest environment), 2% over ten years, 3% over 15. But falling about 1% short YTD.
    DSENX, excluding this year, beat CAPE by 2% in a couple of years, roughly matched CAPE in a couple, and then a -1% year followed by a +1% year. That's around a half percent a year, until this year, when it looks like it made a bad bond call. (To see the blow by blow comparisons, use this page, and then add CAPE as a fund to compare with.)
    It's fair to compare CAPE with the S&P 500, since that's the universe from which it is choosing sectors. M* shows that CAPE and DSENX over their lifetimes, more or less (10/31/13 to present) to have done better than the S&P 500. Both have cumulative returns around 130% vs. 110% for the S&P 500. More recently (3 years or less), they've underperformed. Whether this is just a market phase and that their outperformance will resume is fodder for a broader discussion about smart beta.
    MWATX is instructive because it doesn't use smart beta, just a 2x strategy. It significantly underperformed the S&P 500 in 2008, not catching up to the S&P 500 until the end of 2016. It took a much lighter hit this year, and is now within 1% of the index on performance since Feb 20. IMHO this shows that the leveraging works, but there's real risk and one needs to be patient. Also, it's an extremely tax-inefficient strategy.
  • Suggestion for a fund for my grandson?
    I read this board but don't post. My oldest grandson is 21, and a senior in college. He's interested in starting to invest, probably beginning with $1000, in a Roth IRA, most likely (if there are any funds with a minimum of $1000). I'd like suggestions on one good mutual fund for him. Thank you in advance.
    FZROX. Done.
  • Suggestion for a fund for my grandson?
    Just went through this same drill. Would have preferred Vanguard, but they aren’t worried about young investors trying to get started with less than $3k. Went with TRMCX (Recently reopened) with minimum investment of $1k. At 21, and in a Roth, he can tolerate volatility and tax inefficiency - so another approach is to look for something high yield. Save the index funds for taxable accounts. I wish I had been more cognizant of the tax implications choices I was making 20 years ago would have on my current situation.
  • US stock market is overlooking the rapidly growing national debt
    "The deficit is growing at a rate "well in excess of the growth rate of the economy," he added. "To me, that means more of our nation's income will have to be devoted to debt service, which will retard economic growth in the long term."
    The above has been true 5-10-15 years ago too as the deficit was growing under both parties and...here we are.
    If you believe in that let us know when are you selling everything ;-)
    As usual, I disregard all articles and forecasts and concentrate on what markets are doing now.
  • Suggestion for a fund for my grandson?
    I would open an account at Fidelity and invest in the SP500 using FXAIX. Expense Ratio=0.015%
  • ? DSENX-DSEEX a little help please if you can
    The DoubleLine Shiller Enhanced CAPE®, [is] an investment strategy pairing Shiller Barclays CAPE® with an active fixed income strategy (DoubleLine Short-Intermediate Duration Fixed Income, or SHINT. ...

    Introducing DoubleLine Short-Intermediate Fixed Income Strategy (“SHINT”)

    To construct portfolios across multiple sectors of the fixed income universe, including SHINT portfolios, DoubleLine applies a macroeconomic framework, led by portfolio managers and analysts who look across the spectrum of different asset classes. ...
    SHINT is a diversified fixed income strategy that, at present [April 2019], targets duration of one to three years while pursuing a yield of 3% to 4%. That yield target appears feasible in the current market environment, allowing the investment team to take a measured approach to both interest rate and credit risks. Freedom to allocate across multiple sectors of the fixed income universe also allows the team to construct a diversified fixed income portfolio with what DoubleLine believes to be the most attractive investments on a reward-to-risk basis. The two-pronged approach of coupling top-down macroeconomic views with bottom-up security selection provides potential benefits from both risk management as well as return-seeking opportunities.
    Actively managing the credit risk [non-AGG bond sectors] and interest-rate risk [IG bonds] of the portfolio is a key element to the asset allocation process. DoubleLine tilts the portfolio in the direction of one risk versus another based on the investment team’s macroeconomic forecasts and views on return and risk prospects within the sectors. ...
    Sector rotation of SHINT portfolios has tended to be gradual, due to the gradual shifts in the macroeconomic landscape.
    https://doubleline.com/dl/wp-content/uploads/DoubleLine-CAPEinRisingRateEnvironments-March2019.pdf
    That contains a lot more, including a graph of the bond sector allocations over time.
    DSENX tracked CAPE until March, when it underperformed by about 6%. The gap has held steady since then. This suggests that the bond component was fairly flat (neither helping nor hurting) through February, and also after March. But that it dipped 6% in March.
    We've seen funds that have not recovered well, notably junk securitized debt. But those also fell much harder than 6%. So without peeking, I'd guess that DoubleLine had a mix of low grade securitized bonds and enough higher grade bonds to temper the dip. Taking more credit risk would also be consistent with trying to maintain that 3%+ yield while keeping a short duration.. Strangely enough, the bond fund I find with the closest match for that 2020 performance is TPINX. The portfolio is consistent with my guess: BBB credit rating, 2 year duration.
    Looking at the linked doc on the Enhanced CAPE strategy, it seems that DoubleLine missed a macro call in 2019. The doc is entitled: A Potential Solution for Investors in Rising-Rate Environments.
    Given indications that yields on the 10- and 30-year Treasuries put in a durable bottom in 2016, ending of the 35-year bull market in government bonds, investors have good reason to think about how to position portfolios for the next regime in fixed income. The investment team at DoubleLine is not calling for the advent of a secular bear market in fixed income. ... However, DoubleLine sees numerous fundamental factors presaging a rise in interest rates over the long run. Investors should study strategies that may not need the tailwind of declining rates to provide positive returns and perhaps have the potential to outperform in the face of rising rates.
    Finally (and why I was curious about this fund), M* started classifying it as a blend fund in 2019. Not all that surprising, since CAPE rotates among sectors that are most undervalued relative to their own prior valuations, not relative to the market. So it can easily rotate into more "growthy" sectors.
  • Suggestion for a fund for my grandson?
    “Generally, Fidelity funds have a $0 min.”
    @msf - Does that mean that if I send $10.00 (ten-dollars) to Fidelity I can open 10 accounts in the amount of $1 each in 10 different funds? If so, I’m just crazy enough to do it!
    Yup. I just entered an order for $1 of FLPSX, and the system took it. I immediately cancelled the order. Have fun!
    P.S. The better paying (if you can call it that) MMFs have higher mins.
  • Suggestion for a fund for my grandson?
    Donna,
    At 21, he has a very long investing time-horizon. That fact might steer me, in your situation, to BIAWX. Brown Advisory Sustainable Growth. That Brown family of funds offers other funds. I'm impressed by none of the others. BIAWX owns all growth stocks, no bonds at all. As he gets nearer to middle age, his portfolio should be much more diversified. You can start into BIAWX with just $100 and additional increments of $100. ...Right now, however, the stock market is very richly priced. And particularly since BIAWX owns big, high-flying growth stocks, it's time to WAIT for a pull-back.
    BIAWX has risen quite a bit, since the market has begun its stimulus-induced climb from the market-bottom in March. It's up by almost +20%, since January 1st, and in relative terms, that's astronomical growth!
  • US stock market is overlooking the rapidly growing national debt
    Sure wish my personal finances could be finagled the way the nation's are.
    Yes, wouldn't THAT be lovely???!!!
    @Mark is correct, too.
    @rono has written about this many times lately. "This will not end well." The dollar will lose quite a bit of value. Inflation will sooner or later run rampant. And "Brother, can you spare a dime?" will become "Brother, can you spare a sawbuck?"
    I notice that the EU has reached a landmark stimulus agreement. I'm currently reading Vaclav Havel's "To The Castle And Back." In it, he mentions how the EU bureaucracy is like a hairball, a quagmire of committees upon committees upon committees. So, they have a monetary union, but no fiscal union. And Havel was thinking that someone, somewhere, ought to be THE designated leader at the top of the heap. But it did not happen that way.
    https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=what+is+a+sawbuck&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8

  • Suggestion for a fund for my grandson?
    “Generally, Fidelity funds have a $0 min.”
    @msf - Does that mean that if I send $10.00 (ten-dollars) to Fidelity I can open 10 accounts in the amount of $1 each in 10 different funds? If so, I’m just crazy enough to do it!
  • Latest MFO Premium Webinar Briefing and Video
    Thank you all once again for joining. Very much enjoyed.
    Here's link to briefing deck:
    https://1drv.ms/b/s!AmF1g-5ef-jInOUzGhmW61HQ0kY9gw
  • Suggestion for a fund for my grandson?
    Donna
    As you say, your grandson will begin to learn the ropes pretty quickly (once he has skin in the game). So you're not trying to select a fund that he'll have to keep forever.
    He's young and has time on his side, so he can be adventurous. QQQ or a technology oriented fund would be appropriate.
    This strikes a chord with me -- this week my 15-year old grandson called wanting advice about stocks (he had inherited a little money from his other grandparents). We talked about possibilities, but he made his own decisions. Of course, as soon as something went up a dollar, he wanted to sell it! My strongest recc. was SMH (semiconductors ETF). Volatile ( he had to look up this word) but will probably beat the market in the long run. I've had FSELX, the Fidelity semiconductors (managed )Select Semiconductors fund in my IRA and in my wife's Roth IRA for years and it has been very strong (especially recently).
    Are you providing his initial investment (which is perfect as long as he has actually worked and earned some money)? My grandaughter just graduated from college and started working; I told her I'd match what she wanted to put in a Roth IRA. It turned out that she'd made about $6000 working last year, so she could open a Roth for that much -- my 3K and her 3K. My real goal is to get her engaged in the investment process.
    This will be fun; let us know what you grandson decides.
    David
  • Suggestion for a fund for my grandson?
    Schwab Total Stock Market Index Fund -- SWTSX: 0.03% expense ratio (10x less than the Price version). Schwab has a very good website and local branches. Personally, I'd steer clear of actively managed funds for reasons of cost and the fact that most don't do better than the market long term.
  • Suggestion for a fund for my grandson?
    Hi Donna!
    I suggest you buy him some good books also. Seems like so many 21 year old men think they can “discover” half a dozen gems, ride them for a couple of years and retire at age 30. And of course, that’s just not realistic. My suggestion would be William Bernstein’s “If you Can”. https://etf.com/docs/IfYouCan.pdf
    I may be only thinking of a data set of one (yours truly) but when I was 22 a broker called singing the praises of Data I/O and convinced me to open a margin account.
  • Mining & Minerals Paper
    I bought some FVAC today. It seems to me that a very positive factor is the Pentagon funding -- the US doesn't want China to control the rare-earth supply.
    This method of "going public" is new to me -- FVAC is a "blank check" company and MP was a privately held mining company. They join forces and voile' -- you have a public mining company. It's listed on the NYSE, so I guess some ETFs and index funds have to buy in.
    But I'm watching carefully and keeping my fingers crossed that the stock has not just climbed quickly on the greater fool theory.
    Thanks for the headsup.
    (It closed at 14.88 today -- you're in a nice position.)
    David
  • Suggestion for a fund for my grandson?
    Generally, Fidelity funds have a $0 min. Likewise, Schwab offers 60 house funds (Schwab and Laudus) with no mins. In addition, Schwab offers nearly 3K outside funds at a $100 min, including 110 from T. Rowe Price. (All figures are for open, NTF funds)
    Fidelity Screener
    Schwab screener
    If you like buying stocks or ETFs by the price instead of by the share, Fidelity lets you do this. Minimum purchase per security is $1. Other, smaller brokerages like Robinhood offer this as well, but with their payments for order flow, you'll likely get poorer execution. (There are additional concerns about these brokerages pushing trades because they make money based on the volume of trading.)
    Two points: stick with name brand brokerages and funds, and focus on the investment and not on the minimums.
    Of course this depends on your grandson, but for a first investment I might suggest a more traditional "growth and income" type of fund like a basic S&P 500 index fund (e.g. VOO or FXAIX) or an actively managed fund like PRBLX (through Schwab with a $100 min NTF).
    On the one hand, a novice investor can get spooked by sizeable drops in value. On the other hand, as a long term investment, one leans toward equity. A hybrid fund like @P_F 's suggested VGSTX could also make sense if one wants to start off more conservatively.
    An S&P 500 fund starts one off with a familiar name, adding (one hopes) a measure of comfort. Otherwise I'd suggest a total stock market index fund. The Parnassus fund is a fine long term actively managed vehicle, with a socially conscious bent as an added plus.