These articles have been published when the market were lower by 5,10 and 15%. I have heard in the last 10 years that rates can only go up, that the stock market is overvalued for years, that inverted yield signals top, that PE + PE10 are too high.
One day it will be right, I just like to know exactly when

Old_Skeet, your method is good but has lots of moving parts. Just an observation, not criticism :-)
A typical rebalance achieves similar results when stock prices go down and you keep switching from bonds to stocks to keep the same asset allocation. That is a good way until a black swan shows up and every time you buy more stocks on the way down you keep losing more.
The question of timing occupied my brain for many years.
I always want to be fully invested as long as I can. In the last 10-11 years, I was in cash for about 12 weeks, which means I was fully invested 98% of the time.
Until 2008-9, when I was younger with a much smaller portfolio. I just stayed the course because my fund managers (SGENX,OAKBX,FAIRX) played it right. After I lost 25% in 2008 I decided that the only way not to lose is to set up a simple selling %.
From 2009 and for the next several years, I would sell any stock fund I owned if it lost more than 6% and bought a bond fund. I would sell any bond fund that lost over 3% and searched for another more conservative fund. If I could not find any bond fund then I would go to cash.
When stocks bottomed and rebounded, I only increased stocks using a pyramid up. That means that every time I buy more stock mutual fund the price must be higher than the previous one,
In 2018 at retirement, I made my selling criteria stricter. I only trade stocks short term (hours to days) using charts. I used bond funds most times. Any bond fund I own that loses more than 1% I sell and then I look for a better bond fund, if I can't find any I go to cash.
BTW, the above is probably too complicated. Stay fully invested and buy and hold is a good way for most investors :-)

The first comment is insightful:
Adam Wright says: 11 January 2016 at 09:52
I would add that quantitative analysis in fund research goes well beyond the specific track record of the fund(s). It should also dive into the underlying portfolio holdings which requires a significant amount of securities analysis as well. If you didn’t perform this task how else would you know if you are adding to a well-priced portfolio?
Additionally, if you didn’t perform this task how can you be sure the manager is actually doing what they are saying? In other words, you have to look behind the numbers as they do not tell the entire story nor do they indicate forward looking return potential.
My belief is that a strictly quantitative analysis would create an investment process that is not markedly different than performance chasing.
I’ve all but given up on fund managers, at least on the equity side, in my mind they have all disappointed. I still hold a couple of balanced funds which seem to compete well but I also hold IVIQX which continues to be even more cautious than me.

Some quarterly rebalancing.
Sold: CCSMX, small/mid growth, 31% quarterly gain, but volatile as expected. Selling high and reducing volatility.
Buy: Started a position in SWAN, Amplify’s ETF that showed its effectiveness since inception. I consider it an aggressive part of my bond sleeve, with 90% Treasuries plus 10% SPY Leaps. Captures 60% of SPY upside with 20% downside. Followed this fund for a while, impressed with manager in a podcast I took in at SA. We’ll see how it goes moving forward, especially if the market decides to go risk-off.
Rick

Sitting on Bond Profits? Sell, Switch or Wait?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/sitting-on-bond-profits-sell-switch-or-wait-11593894892
Profits are a good thing, but that doesn’t mean it always makes sense to take them.
If you’ve held bonds or bond funds over the past
Incognito
https://www.google.com/search?q=Sitting+on+Bond+Profits?+Sell,+Switch+or+Wait?&oq=Sitting+on+Bond+Profits?+Sell,+Switch+or+Wait?
&aqs=chrome..69i57j69i60l3.1471j0j7&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8
Do nothing...good hedge long terms

ANBEX is one of the funds I posted about several months ago. See its chart(link) compared to the index.
When I look at Fidelity funds screener ANBEX has the best performance for 1-3 years in the Intermediate Core Bond + Intermediate Core Bond plus categories.
Second to ANBEX are SCCYX+SCPZX from Carillon Reams.

(Present location excepted.)
https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2016/01/11/why-good-mutual-fund-research-is-hard-to-find/
From 2016, but included in this morning's CFA Institute newsletter.
[The author examines] why one firm [Morningstar] dominates retail mutual fund research globally. By ... [her] count, there are at least three reasons why retail investors do not have access to more options:

1. Selecting funds is easier said than done.


2. The restricted access to information required for fund selection prevents a more vibrant funds research market from emerging.


3. The research industry’s business model is difficult.

Fund F = Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index.
As expected it did its job as ballast to stocks.
What is going to be its performance in the next 5 years? maybe 2-2.5% annually.
I don't expect inflation to rise beyond Fed expectations. I have seen many predictions by experts to be off in over 10 years.

I'm a federal retiree with a TSP account. The F fund is an index fund based on the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index. IIRC, the duration is around 4.5. The 8.65 1 year return reflects capital gains from falling interest rates, similar to the gains recorded by core bond funds/intermediate bond funds.

+1
FedSmith is an advertising-based publication directed at Federal employees and retirees from what I can make out. It reminds me a bit of the publications sent free of charge to me from organizations like AARP and NEA / MEA (related due to prior employment). I’d be loath to criticize the content of any of these. They mean well. But neither do they provide the depth of financial insight / information you’d find on this board generally, or at any mainstream financial information service like WSJ, Bloomberg, Barron’s, etc. That may be because FedSmith (and the ones I cited above) are aimed at a broader, less financially astute population.
Excellent point about the declining interest rate trend we’ve grown accustomed to. If you’re under 50 you may not even remember previous decades of generally rising interest rates (assuming you can only remember such things back to when you were 20). Some of us who lived through and were investing during the 70s and 80s can assure you that what you’ve lived through is somewhat of an aberration as interest rates go. Rates can and do go in either direction - rising or falling. Someone here recently mentioned paying a 12 or 14% rate on a mortgage for a first time home.
The fund referenced in the article sounds a lot like the T Rowe Price U S Bond Enhanced Index Fund (PBDIX) which I happen to own. As bond funds go, its fairly “safe” holding all / mostly investment grade bonds having short-intermediate maturities. But in a serious ramp-up of interest rates it would certainly lose money,

For the under-informed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M18_Claymore_mine
Or THIS:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claymore

I'm a federal retiree with a TSP account. The F fund is an index fund based on the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index. IIRC, the duration is around 4.5. The 8.65 1 year return reflects capital gains from falling interest rates, similar to the gains recorded by core bond funds/intermediate bond funds.

I believe you're right. But the Ordinary Joe won't see much, if anything. There's still a big bunch of people awaiting that FIRST round of $1,200.00..... While DEAD people received a big bunch. ("Your tax dollars at work!") There was a thread to that affect on our discussion board, not long ago.

Mr. Hasenstab is a former star manager. Two of the funds he managed, Templeton Global Bond and Templeton Global Income, consistently generated some of the highest trailing returns in the World Bond¹ category. The funds' performance in recent years has been underwhelming. Perhaps Mr. Hasenstab will get his mojo back someday?
¹now in Morningstar Nontraditional Bond category

American Funds’ Quiet Rise to Bond Dominance
https://www.barrons.com/articles/american-funds-quiet-rise-to-bond-dominance-51593714454
Incognito
https://www.google.com/search?q=American+Funds’+Quiet+Rise+to+Bond+Dominance&oq=American+Funds’+Quiet+Rise+to+Bond+Dominance&aqs=chrome..69i57j69i60l2.1043j0j7&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8
While most investors have been laser-focused on stocks this year, the relative steadiness of the bond market has gone largely ignored. American Funds’ bond portfolios, however, have produced a remarkable amount of good news. Managed by Capital Group, they turned in top-notch performance during the coronavirus rout, and have steadily climbed to the pinnacle of their categories over longer periods.
The gains reflect a quiet overhaul that has transformed Capital Group, founded in 1931, into a bond giant.

@bee; you're buzzer may be broke! Inception was2001. Maybe they subbed in the fund ?
Enjoy your Sunday, Derf

Using Portfolio Visualizer I noticed that VTI had negative rolling averages in 1,3,5,& 10 time frames dating back to 1993. That might be a little too volatile for a retiree and could pose a sequence of return risk if one had to pull money from VTI during one of these lows.

Another retirement option, 2 funds listed here:
VTI & VCSH
two-vanguard-index-funds-you-need-for-retirement.html

Having reached 10% allocation in both BIAWX & VWIAX, I am starting a new pair - VLAAX (50-70% Allocation) & PHSKX (mid cap growth) - using funds from VMVFX sale & selling now USMV for the same reason.

VTI "The fund has returned 7.12% since its inception in 2001 (as of May 2020).)
FWIW, Derf

Hi Mr Derf
Tsp acct shows F at 20.949/share presently
Was at 13.97 in june2010
49.9%returns total over 10years/1month