Forget earnings season. What’s the rest of 2020 going to look like?
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/forget-earnings-season-whats-the-rest-of-2020-going-to-look-like-2020-07-04?mod=markets
Investors will return from a long holiday weekend in the U.S. on Monday to what may be the calm before the storm: a relatively quiet week before a deluge of second-quarter corporate earnings reports are published starting July 13.
Most observers are looking past second quarter earnings, as they are likely to not only be awful, but to come without any useful guidance from companies on what to expect for the rest of the year. The bigger question, then, is: what’s next?

How does it hold up over ten years ?
3.99 compound over that time period !
Derf
P.S. That 3.99 % was from 2019- back ten yrs.

https://www.fedsmith.com/2020/07/01/which-tsp-fund-up-8-65-12-months/
Which TSP Fund Up 8.65% in 12 Months?
For those who casually watch the rate of return for the funds in the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP), this may be a surprise.
F Fund Has Best Return Over 12 Months

https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2020/07/02/how-optimistic-should-we-be-on-u-s-economy/
How Optimistic Should We Be on U.S. Economy?
By Jeff Berman |
The U.S. economy is pretty much a mixed bag right now amid spikes in new reported new COVID-19 cases in some states, according to Gary Cohn, former director of the National Economic Council and President Donald Trump’s former chief economic advisor, and Glenn Hutchins, co-founder of Silver Lake Partners.

TRP has been doing this in most of its asset allocation and retirement funds for a few years now. They're doing more barbelling than timing the market as they give you both long treasuries and short TIPs with mild adjustments in allocation.
PRWCX goes in-and-out, i.e. market times. I've seen them do this twice in the last 10 years, buying with good timing but selling too soon.
Price's fund, TRULX, gets a lot of its money from the allocation/retirement funds. Its AUM is not too different from when I bought it 1-1/2 years ago. I wonder if this stabilizes it from the rush inflow situation.

“It's just I'm surprised that I rarely see it used as an asset class in asset allocation, multi-sector, or unconstrained funds. It seems that they would add value & diversification”
I don’t know if this answer satisfies - but a good house with its own highly competent credit research department can do a lot better playing in the corporate bond sector than it can with Treasuries. But msf induced me to look at a couple multi-asset funds.
Here’s what Price’s Spectrum Income fund (RPSIX) does. Its latest bond holdings (from Yahoo) show 0% in U.S. government bonds, 33% in (other) AAA and an average duration of about 5 years. Since the fund typically invests 15% (more or less) in an equity fund, the percent allocated to AAA is lower than might appear at first glance. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RPSIX/holdings/
TRRIX is one of Price’s conservative balanced funds. Normally it targets a 60% bond, 40% equity mix. According to Yahoo the fund is currently underweight bonds by 8% at 52% of portfolio. Like RPSIX, the fund holds 0% U.S. government bonds. And, like RPSIX, they’re holding the duration to just over 5 years. The fund hews to a higher credit quality than RPSIX - with 59% of bonds rated AAA. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TRRIX/holdings/ ..... T. Rowe is right a lot more often than they’re wrong on the long term outlook. Problem is most of us consider 6 months long term, while they’re looking out several years. Patience pays off.
Just a personal perspective (not applicable to others): I view bond funds as a “speed-brake“ that should reduce volatility during deep stock market downturns. Earning the paltry income available today doesn’t interest me. After one of my sources, Bill Fleckenstein, cautioned his readers to avoid lower credit grades last March, I’ve strived to stay with mostly intermediate-term bond funds that invest primarily in higher credit quality. AAA, AA A, BBB all fall within that zone. Yahoo is a great spot for viewing a fund’s bond credit quality / duration / maturity. I should add that Bill made that call a couple weeks before the Fed announced their intent to buy corporate bonds. So I don’t know if the advice still stands. Suspect so.

“Though the bottom line is, I don't think I could put 70% of my total portfolio in long-term treasuries and then just forget about it.” +1
Don’t confuse / conflate long-term Treasuries with long-term Treasury funds - or, for that matter, any type of fund investing in bonds. Two different animals. Funds respond much differently to rising / falling rates. That’s because changes rates affect fund flows. If rates fall and prices rise, more investors likely buy in, causing manager to purchase more bonds at higher prices. Prices fall? Investors flee, forcing manager to sell into a weak market at potentially lower prices. Than there’s the matter of fees and operating costs associated with funds that direct bond holders don’t face.
Your question is a good one. I’m but a casual observer of bonds. But in watching multi-asset funds of all stripes over the years, I get the impression that out beyond the 10-15 year duration, you don’t need a lot of those to significantly impact a fund’s volatility and performance. I rarely see any multi-asset fund that exceeds 10-15% in long term Treasury holdings. No doubt, there are some. In essence, a little bit of this asset delivers a big bang in a diversified portfolio. They make a great hedging tool - precisely because they tend to do better in weak equity markets and pack a disproportionate amount of punch.
Not topical - But there’s an even more potent creature called “zero coupon Treasuries”. For additional enlightenment, you might like to read up on those.

Can't find a good page on this now, but there are only two reasons I know of to hold long term treasuries.
One is immunization. If you like the current yield and there's something you're saving for many years down the road, buying a long term treasury or a few to get the right duration blend is a reasonable strategy. Similar to buying a CD for a targeted purpose.
The other is speculation. If you believe interest rates are going down, you would want to own the most interest rate sensitive, i.e. longest term, bonds. This is considered a speculative strategy - a bet on interest rates - because the difference between 10 and 30 year yields otherwise tends not to justify the additional risk.
Right now 10 years are yielding 0.69%, and 30 years are yielding 1.43%. Is it worth it to you to lock in a 1.43% return, a 3/4% difference in yield, for 30 years in order to bet on interest rates going down further?
OTOH intermediate term bonds can still have a place in a portfolio as a backup for cash in one's decumulation phase. For example, one can keep 3 years in cash or "cash like" investments, and another 4-6 years in intermediate term bonds, with the rest in longer term investments. This is effectively using a bond immunization strategy, not for a long term purpose, but for a midrange one.

Hi @Derf, Thanks for your question. Yes, as the market continued to decline each buy step was greater than the previous with dollars invested. Why, you might ask? Time for a geometry lesson. Picture a pyramid. From the top the deeper one goes towards the base the greater the base area becomes. The same applies to the step buy approach in a falling stock market swoon. The deeper the pull back the greater the rebound opportunity. When a pull back begins one does not know how deep it will go; but, to make the better money each buy step has to become greater as the pull back goes deeper. Generally, I plan for six to eight buy steps with the first one coming somewhere after at least a five percent dip has taken place. And, as the pull back deepens there becomes less risk with each buy step that is made according to the metrics of my market barometer. Thus, for me, this warrants a larger amount being invested into each buy step based upon the reduced risk theory. This has now become a geometric buying approach. I take my pool of money that I am willing to put to work and I plan out how much I'm willing to put to work at each planned buy step Then as the market declines every eight percentage points of separation (or thereabouts sometimes I may use five or six percentage points on the buy step separations) in the downdraft I put money to work. When the market bottoms and turns back upwards I have buy steps planned as well during the updraft until I have reached my average buy in percentage. At this point I stop buying, perhaps before then if I have exhausted my pool of money.
Although, this is not the only investment strategy that is found in my tool kit it is generally how I play market declines. This is one of the reasons that I carry a sizeable cash allocation within my overall asset allocation. My baseline asset allocation that I operate from is 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity. Currently, I am positioned at about 10% cash, 45% income and 45% equity and will adjust accordingly as I feel warranted.
As noted above in my above post(s) I'm now seeing some fixed income investments starting to look attractive when compared to the earnings yield of stocks. In addition, one may want to compare the stock earnings yield to the five year total return of these funds as well. In doing this I'm finding that the five year total return for Pimco Income (PONAX) is about 4.3% and for Lord Abbett Bond Debenture (LBNDX) it is about 4.51%.
What does all this mean? For me, it means that stock valuations have become stretched relative to their earnings. Should the stock earnings yield continue to decline then, from my perspective, my multi sector income funds become even more attractive for near term opportunity and stocks less so.

Are you, @Old_Skeet, telling me you made a 32% profit from your step buys during the most recent correction. Hats off to you & your good fortune !
As for me, a 10% gain is all I can claim, & I'm still waiting for VTINX to get back to break even. The other 3 buys are on the plus side.
Did you increase your buy % as the market sunk. Example $1000 first buy , $2000 second buy , $3000 third buy ?
Stay safe & Enjoy the 4/th, Derf

Thanks for catching my mix-up on dates (the portfolio visualizer can start as far back as 1985 but not this portfolio).
I typically follow EDV but that only went back to 2009 so I looked at VEDTX instead which also includes 2008.
Those other combinations are impressive.
By using WHOSX instead you can get results back to 1998 as well.
Then I looked at different percentages with WHOSX.
PV results
It looks to me that you still need a significant amount of long-term treasuries to make any real difference.
Even WHOSX/PRMTX 50/50 still beats PRWCX.
PV results
Though the bottom line is, I don't think I could put 70% of my total portfolio in long-term treasuries and then just forget about it.

Hello @Art & @Puddnhead,
Thanks for stopping by and making comment.
I should explain a little about the yield metric. Years back investors did not have all the fancy dancy ways to measure the market. One metric that my late father used was he followed the yield on the stocks he owned. When the yields got thin it was usually that the stocks he owned were at, or towards, their 52 weeks highs ... if not setting new highs. With this, he would trim the position and await a pullback where the yield would again rise as the stock price fell usually through a seasonal trend pattern.
In looking back through my data that I keep on the S&P 500 Index the recent high yield on the Index took place on (week ending) March 20th at 2.53% with a reading of 2305 and the recent low on February 21st at 1.79% with a reading of 3338. With this week's close the yield on the Index is at 1.9% with a reading of 3130. With this, and from a yield perspective, the Index is becoming pricey. In addition, TTM earnings are reported to be falling ... not rising. Based upon the blended earnings approach that the barometer uses puts the P/E Ratio for the Index at around 24. With this, This the earnings yield computes to about 4.16%. In comparing the 4.16% earnings yield to the yield of some of my multi sector bond funds ... Well, the advantage is now with some of the multi sector income funds from this yield perspective. Take the widely held PONAX (Pimco Income) is producing an income yield of 5.67%. With this, the yield advantage now goes to some bond funds ... from, my perspective.
Should the Index reach a near term yield of 1.8% Old_Skeet will most likely trim his equity allocation back to it's baseline allocation of 40% equity from the current 45% equity. Not long ago, I trimmed from around 50% equity back to 45%. Remember, I bought the downdraft and when the updraft came this put me equity heavy from the upward price movement as the rebound progressed.
Take care ... and, again ... thanks for stopping by and making comment.

Hi Skeeter,
Yeah I think, too, things are a bit expensive. Have done some selling this week......
PRDGX: it's a tracker; FXIAX: is cheaper; GLFOX: too much Italy and England for me anymore. I don't see infrastructure money coming. FAMEX has only 32 holdings and has not recovered from its fall. Time to move on.
Old news:
Bought BFTHX, FBGRX. Sold value and bought these. Also bought FDFAX. Will hold 'til we get a vaccine. Also ECOLX is one I've been watching for a while. TEFQX had 31% cash, so I'm in.
God bless
the Pudd
p.s., In The Economist this week, a most excellent read called, "Like a Ton of Bricks." Also, happy 4th!

Why aren't long-term treasuries utilized more (or actually at all) in actively managed multi-sector, unconstrained, or flexible income funds? I understand the volatility of such funds but it seems that they do add value. I got to thinking about this again after looking at the prospectus for TMSRX. I believe that they would characterize this under "Style Premia" strategy which includes currency bets (as of 4/20/20 they had 1.4% total in US treasuries).
Portfolio Visualizer for:
1) VEDTX & VTSMX (70/30)
2) VEDTX & QQQ (70/30)
3) PRWCX (100)
Dating back to 1985 (admittedly a period of decreasing interest rates):
Portfolio Visualizer results
Maximum drawdown 1 yr for:
1) -17.05
2) -9.25
3) -27.17
Final balance for a $10,000 investment would be:
1) $37,914
2) $48,708
3) $29,711
I've been following such a strategy for quite some time but never had the nerve to actually invest as such. PRWCX is my largest holding & have been very satisfied.

NYT: Deutsche Bank May Offer Wirecard a Lifeline
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/02/business/wirecard-deutsche-bank.html
Once again, Deutsche Bank puts on its not-so-white hat to cut a deal with a debt-ridden, likely fraudulent company that was headed by a questionable CEO. (Wirecard's former CEO is currently under arrest.)
"It did not provide any further details."

No one knows how long QE Infinity might endure. Biden is proposing a fiscal policy alternative to Cimmamond's MCD solution that could help to offset some of QE Infinity's destructive and destabilizing effects.

Seen in its full breadth and scope, the Biden tax plan is a progressive tour de force. Biden would fund his poverty-fighting education, housing, retirement and health-care reforms with $4.3 trillion of tax hikes on the rich.
Biden’s proposals are populist in the true sense of the term. The Tax Policy Center has found that three-quarters of his tax increases fall on the richest 1% of households. In 2021, Biden would raise this group’s taxes by $299,000.

https://marketwatch.com/story/liberals-arent-giving-joe-biden-credit-for-a-radical-tax-plan-that-goes-after-the-indolent-rich-2020-07-02

Hi guys: With the 4% gain the S&P 500 Index had this week moving from 3009 to 3130 Old_Skeet's stock market barometer scores the Index (near term) as extremely overbought with a reading of 125. I have the Index off it's 52 week high by 7.5% and up off it's 52 week low by 39.9%. All of my buy steps that I made during the recent stock market swoon are all now positive with the package as a whole returning about 32%.
My late father use to say when the yield gets thin it's time to trim. Currently, I'm finding that the yield on the Index (currently 1.9%) is as low as it has been since 2-21-20 (weekly close) when it was at 1.79% with a reading of 3338. For me, I have already been there and done that.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Enjoy your 4th of July Holiday!
Old_Skeet

There's always the option of filing Form 2210 Schedule AI with your tax return. This lets you pay estimates based on the income you actually made each "quarter", rather than paying the same amount on each estimate.
Regardless, you never have to get ahead of yourself and pay higher estimates YTD than you would have had you paid 1/4 of your taxes on each estimate.
Using this form entails keeping pretty good records about what income (including investment income) you received when. I did this for a few years. But I haven't since interest rates on cash dropped so low that it's no longer worth the effort just to defer paying a few bucks for some months.
Nevertheless, this method is available as a backup in case you get hit with a lot of 4th quarter income.

@bilvihur: It May be that some mangers of funds you own did some ill-advised selling when the markets went south. Those sales could result in higher distributions come December, but I doubt that information is available now. Who knows if some funds will reduce dividend payments. I will be writing a fat check July 15 and I’m preparing for that.

@hank, I know you are a TRP guy. Have you looked at the new'ish TMSRX fund, Multi Asset Strategy? Another portfolio change I've made the past few months was to go with more conservative alternative type funds. TMSRX is one of those, along with a pretty heavy dose of MNWAX and most recently started an investment into GAVAX.

Hi Mike. Great minds don’t always think alike. The changes (albeit minor) I made a few months ago were to add more risk to the table. DODBX is arguably more risky than RPGAX. I also carved-out a new “spec” position from my 15% allocation to cash-like instruments. For example, the 15% that previously was all allocated to cash-like funds is currently allocated about 35% to a couple equity funds I think have potential with the remaining 65% invested in cash & ultra short. It’s a 2-pronged spear. At our age we should be cutting back on risk, as you seem to have done. But with the current super-low (err ... “non-existent”) interest rates, one needs more risk if he is to stay ahead of inflation.
Re TMSRX - Yep. I dove in as soon as David mentioned it here or as soon as it opened (not sure which came first). It constitutes about 45% of my 25% allocation to alternative funds, which, mathematically speaking, makes it about 11% of total portfolio. Sounds to me like David has a larger chunk, but don’t think he mentioned percentages. Good review by David. Maybe even “intriguing :)