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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Informed Simplicity from Charles’ Balcony
    MJG, thanks for pointing out Charles's excellent contribution this month. I definitely have come to the same conclusion that managed funds in most investment areas are not worth the effort.
    I also believe that investors and professional advisers exasperate the under performance of using managed funds by multiplying the same investment style in a portfolio. Using 2 or 3 or more funds in the same category increases the chance to under perform the representative index in every study I've read. There is no way owning 3 domestic large cap funds for example is going to out perform the S&P500. If the argument is to do it for manager diversification, it's a whole lot easier to accomplish that with an index fund.
    Anyway, Charles has been saying this for a long time now, and now he is giving examples with actual fund portfolio comparisons. Great job.
  • David's June 1, 2016 Commentary is Posted.
    Sorry Ted.
    I tend to read only the first 4 or 5 words when scanning the many listings. Apparently I thought yours was about boating. :)
  • Informed Simplicity from Charles’ Balcony
    Hi Guys,
    I want to direct your attention to the June edition of Charles’ Balcony. It’s yet another fine example of Charles’ research orientation and depth. Good work Charlie. It illustrates how an informed simplistic investment approach can eviscerate complex, costly alternatives in the portfolio construction arena. Please give it a thoughtful read.
    American Funds is famous for its in-depth research, independent bottom-up decision making, and heavy-weight cost structure. In much earlier days, their process appears to have delivered a performance edge, that more lately seems to have suffered significant erosion. A more professional investment cohort looks like they are neutralizing one another and battling to near zero positive Alphas.
    Active fund management is struggling to demonstrate its superiority over Indexing.
    That’s particularly difficult for the American group because of its fees. But that’s also the case when those fees are reduced. Cost leader Vanguard offers a rather complete array of both actively and passively managed funds in almost all fund categories. That offers a superior, natural opportunity for a real world test. How have the Vanguard products performed lately in a direct competition?
    A 2015 article from the AssetBuilder website has addressed that issue and provides a partial answer. Here is a Link to that excellent study:
    https://assetbuilder.com/knowledge-center/articles/do-vanguards-indexes-beat-their-own-actively-managed-funds
    Some active Vanguard funds do and some do not deliver as advertised. I’m sure conclusions are timeframe sensitive.
    Even with Vanguard’s low cost structure, the hurdle is a severe challenge for active fund managers. Over the 10-year timeframe of the referenced study, please note how similar the cumulative returns were. Advantages were minor in terms of that meaningful measurement.
    Are the incremental and uncertain payoffs worth the risk of choosing a deadbeat manager? Everyone has their own answer to that question. My answer is a portfolio split that includes both active and Index holdings.
    Thank you Charles.
    Best Regards.
  • Gold Down Nine Days In A Row
    "Didn't gold basically go down about 75% from roughly 1980 to 2001?"
    Peaked at $850 in 1980. Slid to around $350 in 1993. In dollar terms (non-inflation adjusted) that's a loss of around 60%. As rjb says, the inflation adjusted loss was much greater.
    I bought a little just before the 80s peak and attempted to buy down on the frequent dips for three or four years after. A terrific first lesson in investing. One I won't forget.
  • Fidelity Sued By Delta 401(k) Participants Over Alleged Fiduciary Breach
    Here's another article, this one with a paragraph explaining the argument behind the brokerage window complaint. That is, by selecting available funds, Fidelity is allegedly exercising discretionary authority which makes it a fiduciary and not merely an order taker (brokerage gofer).
    It also contains a link to the actual filing (hosted by Bloomberg).
    http://www.bna.com/fidelity-faces-erisa-n57982072865/
    I'm more interested in the brokerage window complaint. What Fidelity is doing is providing access to a retail brokerage account to 401(k) participants.
    Since Fidelity is using its own brokerage (and benefiting from that), it has to be careful about self-dealing. But since it's providing access to an off-the-shelf brokerage account competitive with those of Schwab, TDA, etc. that doesn't seem to be a problem.
    The complaint also, um, complains about Fidelity not selling the cheapest share classes for some funds. That's a retail account for you. It is true (as stated in the complaint) that Fidelity aggregates the shares of a fund owned by all its customers (an omnibus account). That's what gives it access to institutional share classes (with TF).
    I suspect that this part of the complaint will be dismissed. Alternatively, if the ruling is for the participants, then would it also affect non-window retail accounts? After all, there's no fundamental difference in the way these retail accounts function depending on whether they are retirement plan windows or taxable accounts.
    Finally, the complaint is worth reading for Table 1 on p. 15. (Just look for something in color). It shows (for 2009) the fees that funds paid to be sold by Fidelity. The median and mode was 35 basis points; some funds paid as much as 55 basis points. I didn't know the fees went that high.
  • Muni-Bond Yield Curve Flattest Since 2008 Credit Crisis: Chart
    FYI: The difference between short- and long-term yields in the $3.7 trillion municipal-bond market is the smallest in more than eight years.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-31/muni-bond-yield-curve-flattest-since-2008-credit-crisis-chart
  • Fidelity Sued By Delta 401(k) Participants Over Alleged Fiduciary Breach
    FYI: Claim alleges Fidelity 'wanted a piece of the action' when Financial Engines was hired to provide plan advice.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20160531/FREE/160539996?template=printart
  • Some really big YTD gains in bond funds of all stripes and colors
    @SL, you should start a bond fund of your own; way to go!
    DSEEX up (only) 5.5%.
  • Gold Down Nine Days In A Row
    Nine days? LOL.
    I watched it go down for nine years one time.
    Didn't gold basically go down about 75% from roughly 1980 to 2001?
    On an after inflation basis, I think it went down roughly 90% during that time.
  • Some really big YTD gains in bond funds of all stripes and colors
    Yes, that is correct - my portfolio return YTD is 7.5% and I only trade bonds. I learned from the master @Junkster.
    I was in corp junk in Feb and March, but I went into bank loan funds since they were performing as well as corp junk funds. I want to see a few more days of corp junk outperformance before I start moving that direction.
  • Some really big YTD gains in bond funds of all stripes and colors
    Slowlane You are doing great and beating my 6%+ YTD. You should clarify that your 7.5% is your portfolio return YTD as you only trade bonds. I am still real wary of corp junk. It is still about oil in that sector. If we head back down will roll over my JYIIX into JFIIX. IVHIX has a high % in bank loans and why I like it in the corp junk category. Bank loans have been as smooth a ride as you and I have had the past many years. Bring on the higher rates!
  • Some really big YTD gains in bond funds of all stripes and colors
    @Junkster - I'm no Bill Gross, but I'm up 7.5% YTD in my bond only portfolio, which has been almost all in bank loan funds for the past 2 months. I have 80% in bank loans funds, LSFYX, JFIIX and SAMBX and 20% in DVHIX, a municipal high yield fund. The bank loan funds have been less volatile than corp HY, but corp junk may be catching its second wind here. IVHIX looks good and it is finally coming back after Bryan Krug's departure a couple of years ago.
  • Some really big YTD gains in bond funds of all stripes and colors
    Junk corp continue to defy the experts - the H0A0 is up 8.07% YTD. Since this is a universe of over 2000 companies (no cash) it will outperform during bull runs. Still, the average mutual fund in this category is up 5.60% YTD with many of the better ones up over 6% and 7% ala IVHIX and JYIIX to name just a few. Bank/senior/leveraged loan funds ala SAMBX and JFIIX are up over 5% YTD. Going into today was 40% junk corp spread over three funds and 55% bank loan spread over two funds. I should be higher in junk corp but.........
  • Gold Down Nine Days In A Row
    FYI: Ever since those FOMC minutes from the April meeting came out back on 5/18, gold has been in an absolute tailspin. As shown in the chart below, prices have now declined in every session since the release of the minutes. They’re now testing their March lows and are on pace for their lowest close since early February.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/gold-down-nine-days-in-a-row/
    Barron's: The Big Boys Are Dumping Gold Futures As Rally Pauses:
    http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2016/05/31/the-big-boys-are-dumping-gold-futures-as-rally-pauses/tab/print/
  • Seafarer Overseas Value Fund now available
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000091580216000161/fitseafareroverseasvaluefund.htm
    497 1 fitseafareroverseasvaluefund.htm
    FINANCIAL INVESTORS TRUST
    Seafarer Overseas Value Fund
    (the “Value Fund”)
    SUPPLEMENT DATED MAY 31, 2016 TO THE VALUE FUND’S PROSPECTUS AND STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION DATED APRIL 15, 2016
    As of the date of this Supplement, shares of the Value Fund are now being offered for sale.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
    13931427.1 (9/8/2015 9:21 AM)
  • Asset Managers: The Tide Turns
    Hi Heezsafe,
    I completely agree: “it's what you know for sure that just ain't so” that could do you major league harm.
    In the 1950s I decided to invest in the stock market. Given my rookie status, I was absolutely sure that everyone knew more than I did. I put my trust and my money on investment tips that I received from false prophets like radio personalities and stock brokers. I couldn’t have been more wrong.
    Do you remember the Walter Winchell Sunday night radio broadcasts? Do you even remember radio? Well, Winchell gave hot stock tips that eventually proved to be front-running, especially by his friends in Florida. I fell victim to that trap as well as many other hot tip disasters from brokers, who had incentives that did not include profits for me.
    But I did slowly learn. The problem was that I learned all too slooooowly.
    Best Wishes.
  • Asset Managers: The Tide Turns
    Hi msf,
    I appreciate your perspective.
    I'm an amateur investor and consequently have huge knowledge holes. I suppose you mean Money Market Funds with your mmf abbreviation. Or perhaps you mean Makes Money Fast. Either is appropriate.
    I have zero direct experience dealing with Dreyfus. I learned of their early beginnings from Charles D. Ellis’s book titled “Capital”. I own that volume and dug it up to refresh my memory. Ellis discusses Dreyfus in Chapter 9 of that volume. He is the historian, not me, that I referenced in my earlier post.
    Although I started investing in the 1950s, I was totally unaware of the existence of mutual funds in that timeframe. At one point, I foolishly believed that I could invest my paltry savings with George Soros. Dream On!
    Best Wishes.
  • oil bottom?
    Oil probably bottomed on January 20 when West Texas Intermediate for February delivery settled at $26.55 a barrel. Currently WTI's trading at $49.47 - about 80% above its January low.
  • Asset Managers: The Tide Turns
    The article says that "the average manager is likely to do no better than the market, before fees". This of course is wrong. The average dollar is likely to do no better than the market, at least assuming that funds for all intents and purposes are the market.
    There are lots and lots of poorly run, small (and expensive) funds that I believe skew the "averages" (i.e. unweighted average fund performance). Maybe a modicum of diligence in avoiding the worst managed or highest expense won't bring the odds of success up to 50:50, but it surely will make the reported figures less bleak.
    With respect to Dreyfus leading the way in aggressive investing (at least in advertising), that may well be true. But some of us haven't quite reached the level of your esteemed seniority, and recall Dreyfus differently. By the 80s, it was best known for Dreyfus Liquid Assets (MMF), selling primarily MMFs and to a lesser extend bond funds. Sure it still had (and still has) equity funds, but they were also rans. Interesting how people's impressions can differ so much.
    Here's a NYTimes article describing this incarnation of Dreyfus:
    Dreyfus Bets on the Lion Again, Januay 16, 1983.
    For the classic Dreyfus comercial (which according to one site shows the J train subway exit on Wall Street - many different subway lines converge there):
    ""