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Wealth-Track_Breakfast_with_Dave_2020_06_24.pdfFrom where I sit, there are things I do like even if I’m not a buyer of the Dow, S&P 500 or Nasdaq outright. I still like growth over value; I like essentials over cyclicals; I like “Big Safety”; I like the “homebody” stay-at-home stocks; I like the long end of the Treasury curve; I like Japan as a secular Abe-led turnaround story; I like secular themes tied to medical technology and cyber security investments; ESG is here to stay; and my strongest conviction is in gold and gold stocks (silver too — “ poor man’s gold”). While the Fed may be backstopping the outer limits of the corporate bond market, I wouldn’t touch it. They are so mispriced for the current and prospective default wave, it’s not even funny. If you’re that bullish, just buy stocks. If you want to invest defensively and seek yield, look at preferreds, or the solid dividend yields in selective REITs, telecom with financial depth, and utilities.
Obama assembled a brain-trust of smart financial folks, including Tim Geithner, between election day and the inauguration. They met regularly and planned out actions they could take Day #1 to resolve the crisis. At that point the econ was on life-support. Their advance planning and the highly qualified team assembled helped turn things around. Inauguration Day - January 20. Beginning of greatest bull market in history - March 9. No doubt Biden will follow that model as concerns Covid 19 and be ready to hit the ground running.Howdy folks,
"will there be a second wave?". Of course there will be a second wave and just like in 1918/1919 it will be MUCH WORSE than the first wave that we're still experiencing. Even if preventative measures hadn't be politicized, we'd STILL be looking at a much worse second wave due to the nature of the beast when it comes to us humans and particularly to us American's. We've all got a huge civil libertarian streak and we just will not and cannot stay inside this long. We gots to get out. We gots to go to the bar. We gots to see our friends and family.
Add in the politicization of the plague by DT and friends, and it's going to get very, very nasty next winter. Sorry folks, but looking around at all the people not wearing masks and not social distancing (and they probably don't wash their hands the lepers), we're well and truly screwed.
Next winter in America is going to look like the Black Death. Literally, it will be with carts in the streets, 'bring out your dead'.
Sorry. I wish I could be more positive, but look around . . .
and so it goes,
peace,
rono
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