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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Where the U.S. retail blooms are and are not. Also, The Fed is addicted to propping up the markets.
    The first article provides a short visual look at how various retail business sectors performed in May. Relatedly, the second article takes a look at the Feds role in the massive and prompt fiscal and monetary policy actions that supported this May's rebound during this first phase of the pandemic. I am left wondering how the virus will bend this short term retail rebound, the economy in general, and the stock market over the next several months. It won't be dull.
    image
    In essence, the Fed has adopted a strategy that works like a one-way ratchet, providing a floor for stock and bond prices but never a ceiling.
    https://reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-retail-graphics/may-flowers-where-the-u-s-retail-blooms-are-and-are-not-idUSKBN23O1HG
    https://washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/17/fed-is-addicted-propping-up-market-whether-it-needs-help-or-not/
  • This year’s stock-market run has an uncanny resemblance to 2009, analyst says, with big upside for s
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/B9CDB964-AFD7-11EA-885A-481D889F3439
    This year’s stock-market run has an uncanny resemblance to 2009, analyst says, with big upside for stocks ahead
    By Andrea Riquier
    Expect stocks to spin their wheels for a while and then rally toward the end of the year, this analyst thinks
    If the topsy-turvy financial markets of 2020 have you scratching your head, you’re not alone. But you may be overthinking it, according to one longtime market watcher.
    “2020 is just like 2009,”
  • Dow ends 527 points higher and the stock market notches its 3rd straight gain amid hope of coronavir
    All green lights from here, couple yellow near stops??? Few days ago many pundits predict massive down turns at least another 15-25% DJI reaching March levels?
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-ends-527-points-higher-and-the-stock-market-notches-its-3rd-straight-gain-amid-hope-of-coronavirus-treatment-2020-06-16?mod=markets
    Dow ends 527 points higher and the stock market notches its 3rd straight gain amid hope of coronavirus treatment
    Published: June 16, 2020 at 4:08 p.m. ET
    By Mark DeCambre
    DJIA
    +2.04%
    SPX
    +1.89%
    COMP
    +1.74%
    PCG
    -0.27%
    U.S. stock benchmarks closed out Tuesday trade sharply higher after investors parsed testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on the the economy, reacted to a report of a prospective treatment for COVID-19, and to a report on retail sales that suggested that worst of the damage wrought by coronavirus lockdowns may be over. Retail sales rose 17.7% in May, according to data from the Commerce Department, marking a sharp rebound from a record slump in March and April during the depths of the pandemic. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +2.04% closed up 527 points, or 2%, at 26,290, the S&P 500 index SPX, +1.89% gained 1.9% at 3,124, on the back of gains in the energy and health-care sectors, both up more than 2%. The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +1.74% closed with a gain of 1.8% at 9,896. All closing levels are on a preliminary basis, and all three benchmarks marked their third straight gain, recovering mightily from a jarring pullback on Thursday. The retail sales got the stock market off to a bullish start and gains deepened after BBC reported that dexamethasone, a cheap and widely available steroid, is showing signs of success in low doses when prescribed to patients who are suffering serious symptoms from the illness derived from the coronavirus. In corporate news, Pacific Gas & Electric PCG, -0.27% pleaded guilty Tuesday to killing 84 people in a 2018 wildfire in Northern California, agreeing to pay a maximum fine of $3.5 million, as well as the cost of the investigation. Shares of the utility closed down 0.3%. Meanwhile, Powell in his Senate testimony reiterated that the road to recovery from the pandemic would likely be a long one and cautioned investors that they shouldn't overreact to surprisingly good economic data like the May retail sales report published earlier Tuesday because "the levels of output and employment remain far below their pre-pandemic levels." Powell will testify in front of a House panel on Wednesday.
  • Trading Sportsbooks for Brokerages. Bored Bettors Wager on Stocks
    "When Russian table tennis or Korean baseball won’t scratch the itch, some are trying their hand at trading equities. It’s enough to move the market, analysts say."
    "Millions of small-time investors have opened trading accounts in recent months, a flood of new buyers unlike anything the market had seen in years, just as lockdown orders halted entire sectors of the economy and sent unemployment soaring. It’s not clear how many of the new arrivals are sports bettors, but some are behaving like aggressive gamblers. There has been a jump in small bets in the stock options market, where wagers on the direction of share prices can produce thrilling scores and gut-wrenching losses. And transactions that make little economic sense, like buying up the nearly valueless shares of bankrupt companies, are off the charts."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/14/business/sports-gamblers-stocks-virus.html
    Zany action in recent days has me convinced. Apparently these guys (and gals) are watching every short term development or coment by an official and placing wagers on which way the indexes will move.
    - Week ago - Payroll numbers better than expected - Powerful up day
    - Thursday - Covid 19 redeveloping in China - Powerful down day
    - Monday - Friday's steep dive continues until Fed Chair Powell reveals Fed is buying Corporate bonds - Market reverses, makes up 700 point drop (Dow) and ends day higher
    - Tuesday - Monday's rally continues after strong overnight futures - some based on reports of a trillion dollar infrastructure plan in the works. Morning's hotter than expected retail sales numbers add fuel to the fire.
    - Later Tuesday - Dow falls about 500 points from day's high, apparently on comments Fed Chair Powell makes to Congress that deficit spending will hurt us longer term. But later recovers (based on whatever else he said)
    Just watching. You'd need to be insane to try to time or outsmart this market. A lot of short term dumb money sloshing around.
  • BulletShares versus ibonds bond ladder
    Looking at the prospectuses (something one should always do before investing in a security), there are at least three differences that would make BulletShares®'s numbers seem better. Call risk looks to be the most significant, and is even greater than you're suggesting.
    iBonds® Dec 2023 Term Muni Bond ETF prospectus.
    Invesco Exchange-Traded Self-Indexed Fund Trust prospectus.
    iBonds track an S&P AMT-Free Muncipal Series December 20xx Index™ while BulletShares track a proprietary Invesco BulletShares®MunicipalBond 20xx Index.
    The first difference is obvious from the names of the indexes. iBonds invest in AMT-free munis. Consequently they may pay a little less interest. The last major change in tax laws made AMT moot for most investors. So generally there's no advantage in accepting a lower yield to get AMT-free payments. I suspect the difference in yields between AMT-free and private activity munis is not so large for the same reason.
    The second and most important difference is callability. The S&P indexes include only "non-callable U.S. municipal bonds maturing in 20[xx]." The Invesco indexes "may include callable, puttable, and pre-funded bonds." The corresponding ETFs explicitly include call risk among their principal risks. Call risk is not mentioned in the iBonds prospectus. So it appears that the difference in call risk between the ETFs is not just quantitative (more or less call risk), but qualitative (is there call risk or not?).
    The third difference, related to callability is how the maturity year is determined. Obviously with noncallable bonds (iBonds), the year of maturity is, well, the year the bonds mature. But with BulletShares, a callable bond may mature in 2024 (or even Jan 2025) and be considered a 2023 bond, so long as the first call date is within 13 months of maturity (and if the call is at par). That would seem to mean that the fund could include some 2024/2025 bonds trading at a discount (so YTW = YTM). This would make the SEC yield higher, since you're really buying 2024 bonds rather than 2023 bonds. But it would also seem to subject the bonds (and thus the ETF) to greater interest rate risk.
    I haven't worked through all the differences in the yields, durations, etc. There could be more going on. Still, this is a reasonable start at identifying the fundamental differences. I would add another: S&P has much more experience in designing indexes than Invesco (or its predecessor, Accretive Asset Management [acquired by Guggenheim]), and Blackrock (with its predecessor, Barclays) has earned a reputation for well managed index funds. I don't know how well Invesco runs its index funds.
    Finally, according to the fact sheets, both 2023 ETFs have the same 0.18% ER.
    iBonds 2023 (IBML) fact sheet.
    BulletShares 2023 (BSMN) fact sheet.
  • MAMU: The Mother of All Meltups --- Ed Yardini
    sorry, thought it would open per the bing sequence above
    https://www.ft.com/content/2a6ec6aa-492e-4e7d-85f8-83789a2bc481

    Top US pension fund aims to juice returns via $80bn leverage plan

    Calpers hopes bold move will boost efforts to achieve its 7% return target
    John Plender in London and Peter Smith in Wagga Wagga JUNE 14 2020

    Calpers is to move deeper into private equity and private debt by adopting a bold leverage strategy that the $395bn Californian public sector pension fund believes will help it achieve its ambitious 7 per cent rate of return.
    In a presentation to the Calpers board, Ben Meng, chief investment officer, said the giant fund would take on additional leverage via borrowings and financial instruments such as equity futures. Leverage could be as high as 20 per cent of the value of the fund, or nearly $80bn based on current assets. The aim is to juice up returns to help the scheme, the largest public pension in the US, achieve its growth target.
    The move comes after a 2019 investment strategy review that found Calpers needed greater focus on the excess returns potentially available from illiquid assets compared with public equity and debt. Under Calpers’ previous asset allocation strategy it was estimated to have a less than 40 per cent probability of achieving its 7 per cent return target over the next decade.
    Calpers’ assets represent just 71 per cent of what it needs to pay future benefits to the 1.9m police officers, firefighters and other public workers who are members of the scheme.
    The US stock market slide this year has increased the long-term structural problems across the entire US public pension system, particularly for the weakest plans that have ballooning unfunded liabilities. The weak funded position of these funds poses a huge long-term risk for millions of US employees and retired workers.
    Mr Meng hopes Calpers’ deeper push into illiquid assets over the next three years will help it exploit its structural strengths. Its perpetual nature allows it to make longer-term investments, while its size gives it access to top managers in private equity markets where performance is widely dispersed.
    “Given the current low-yield and low-growth environment, there are only a few asset classes with a long-term expected return clearing the 7 per cent hurdle. Private assets clearly stand out,” Mr Meng said. “Leverage will increase the volatility of returns but Calpers’ long-term horizon should enable us to tolerate this.”
    He added that leverage would not “be tied to any specific strategy, asset, fund or deal”.
    Mr Meng has terminated relationships with more than 30 external fund managers since 2019, redeploying $64bn of capital with savings of more than $115m in annual fees. Holdings of global equities are now 95 per cent internally managed, while 80 per cent of the total fund is managed in-house. It invests in more than 10,000 public companies.
    Mr Meng has faced criticism this year for abandoning a hedging strategy for tail risk, the risk of low probability but highly costly events, before the market crash in March.
    He countered that Calpers had developed ways of raising cash at short notice to meet unexpected demands on the fund, an approach that was less expensive than high-cost hedging strategies.
    Calpers’ portfolio has also been de-risked by increasing its holdings in longer-dated US Treasuries and switching more assets from capitalisation-related equity indices to factor-weighted equities. These use indices that focus on investment styles such as price momentum or volatility.
    According to Mr Meng this strategy protected the fund from losses of $11bn in the pandemic-induced market slide, which far outweighed the $1bn profit forgone on tail risk hedging. He said that unlike in the financial crisis of 2008 Calpers was not forced to sell assets into a depressed market in March. “Too little liquidity can be deadly but too much is costly,” he said.
  • MAMU: The Mother of All Meltups --- Ed Yardini
    @Catch22. Try the go around below. Article: "Top US pension fund aims to juice returns ... "
    Bing
  • BulletShares versus ibonds bond ladder
    I am looking to build a municipal bond ladder with target date ETFs. I am wondering if there is any opinion on BulletShares versus Ibonds. The differences I notice are BulletShares has lower volume, lower assets, higher yields, higher durations, and higher expenses.
    BulletShares: average volume about 1K-10K, expense ratio 0.18%
    Ibonds: average volume 10K-60K, expense ratio 0.10%
    For both, the longer maturity target dates tend to have lower volumes
    I am not sure why, but the yields are consistently higher for BulletShares despite the same average credit quality. BulletShares s tends to have longer effective duration for the same target year. I think BulletShares might have more callable bonds (but their yield to worse still is higher than Ibonds yield to maturity)
    BulletShares 2023: Effective duration 3.3 years. Yield to maturity 1.87%, yield to worst 0.84%
    Ibonds 2023: effective duration 2.8 years, Yield to maturity 0.52%
    BulletShares 2026: Effective duration 7.2 years, Yield to maturity 2.79%, yield to worst 1.79%
    Ibonds 2026 effective duration 5.4 years Yield to maturity 0.9%
    Part of me says take the better yield and since I plan to hold until the last year don’t worry about liquidity, but part of me says this is too good to be true and maybe Guggenheim’s bond pricing methodology is artificially boosting their yields, or they are taking excessive duration or call risks on callable bonds. Any input would be appreciated.
  • O’Shaughnessy Small Cap Value Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1027596/000089418920004600/oshaughnessy497eliquidatio.htm
    497 1 oshaughnessy497eliquidatio.htm O'SHAUGHNESSY 497E SUPP
    O'Shaughnessy Small Cap Value Fund
    Class I: OFSIX
    Supplement dated June 15, 2020 to
    Prospectus dated November 28, 2019
    O’Shaughnessy Asset Management, LLC, the Advisor to the O’Shaughnessy Small Cap Value Fund (the “Fund”), has recommended, and the Board of Trustees of Advisors Series Trust has approved, the liquidation and termination of the Fund. This decision was made due to the unfavorable economies of operating a small fund with no realistic prospect for future growth.
    The liquidation is expected to occur after the close of business on July 27, 2020. Pending liquidation of the Fund, investors will continue to be able to reinvest dividends received in the Fund.
    Effective June 16, 2020, the Fund will no longer accept purchases of new shares. In addition, the Fund’s Advisor will no longer be actively investing the Fund’s assets in accordance with the Fund’s investment objective and policies and the Fund’s assets will be converted into cash and cash equivalents. As a result, as of June 16, 2020, the Fund will no longer be pursuing its stated investment objective. Shareholders of the Fund may redeem their investments as described in the Fund’s Prospectus. Accounts not redeemed by July 27, 2020 will automatically be closed and liquidating distributions, less any required tax withholdings, will be sent to the address of record.
    If you hold your shares in an IRA account directly with U.S. Bank N.A. you have 60 days from the date you receive your proceeds to reinvest your proceeds into another IRA account and maintain their tax-deferred status. You must notify the Fund or your financial advisor prior to July 22, 2020 of your intent to reinvest your IRA account to avoid withholding deductions from your proceeds.
    Please contact the Fund at 1-877-291-7827 or your financial advisor if you have questions or need assistance.
    Please retain this Supplement with the Prospectus.
  • Investing for Income in Today's Environment
    Re: Investing for Income in Today's Environment ...
    Two thoughts:
    (1) Like Bartleby, the obstinate law clerk, in Melville's Bartleby, the Scrivener ... "I'd prefer not to."
    (2) A contrary opinion might be "Get 'em while they last." - as you now have some serious bond buying competition.
    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/federal-reserve-begins-individual-corporate-bond-purchases-secondary-market-relief-2020-6-1029309910
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    @FD100
    you may have told us before but how do you avoid redemption fees on some of these funds?
    Congratulations on establishing your system that seems to work almost all the time. How much work does it take to evaluate incoming data daily or hourly and trade so frequently? Sounds close to a real job to me
    I do pay commissions sometimes but I try to buy Instit shares because I have an agreement to buy them at Schwab with fees waived. Selling is always free because Instit shares don't have short term fees. Several funds have their own short term fees and why I don't buy them. Even if I pay fees they are negligible when I make thousands.
    It takes me just minutes every week for my portfolio because I have all the lists I need to see momentum and looking at my preferred pre-selected funds.
    Example: if I want to buy HY Munis the 4 funds (NHMAX,ORNAX,OPTAX,GWMEX) are my top choices and what I have been using but I always take another look at other funds.
    Investing has been my passion for years.
    I do spend more if I post something that needs research, analysis and more.
    ===========
    (link) "Stocks erased earlier losses and rose Monday, after the Federal Reserve said it would begin purchasing individual corporate bonds as part of its emerging lending program to inject liquidity into the virus-stricken economy.
    Earlier in the session, the Dow was off as many as 762 points, or 3%, as investor jitters over rising coronavirus cases in key parts of the country stirred up an extension of last week’s pullback in equities."
    ============
    My main investments are bond OEFs, will see in the next several days where markets are going
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    One would anticipate a minimum of a 50-100% portfolio return on an annual basis, based on the methodology.
    My-oh-my.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    @FD100
    you may have told us before but how do you avoid redemption fees on some of these funds?
    Congratulations on establishing your system that seems to work almost all the time. How much work does it take to evaluate incoming data daily or hourly and trade so frequently? Sounds close to a real job to me
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    @FD1000
    Global equity weak today (Monday, June 15) and U.S. equity market open appears to be weak. VIX trying to push above 41 again. Treasury issues happy, pre-market (Sept. contracts) 'Course, this doesn't always translate to other bond sectors; as high yield bonds may not be very happy today, nor some marginal junk corp. bonds, but.....
    There must be a bond area you plan to buy, eh?
    Keep us posted with your next entry/exit points, as to when and where; so that some here may participate, if they choose.
    This will never happen.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    @FD1000
    Global equity weak today (Monday, June 15) and U.S. equity market open appears to be weak. VIX trying to push above 41 again. Treasury issues happy, pre-market (Sept. contracts) 'Course, this doesn't always translate to other bond sectors; as high yield bonds may not be very happy today, nor some marginal junk corp. bonds, but.....
    There must be a bond area you plan to buy, eh?
    Keep us posted with your next entry/exit points, as to when and where; so that some here may participate, if they choose.
  • Japan plunges more than 3%, with stocks in Asia dropping as virus fears resurface
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/06/15/asia-markets-coronavirus-china-economy-currencies-in-focus.html
    Japan plunges more than 3%, with stocks in Asia dropping as virus fears resurface
    Stocks in Asia fell on Monday, with the Nikkei 225 in Japan dropping more than 3% while South Korea's Kospi plunged 4.76%.
    The moves regionally came as as investors weighed the potential impact of recent spikes in coronavirus cases.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    As I said several times before I don't follow any of these but my own rules which I started years ago preparing for retirement. Since 2018 I practiced stricter rules 1) 6+% average annually 2) SD under 3 3) never lose 3% from any last top 4) complete flexibility to do whatever I want/need. I exceeded these rules by a lot.
    ===============
    Anyway, the thread is about bond funds so let's get back to it.
    Last Thursday was another pivotal day for me. VIX jumped to almost 41, stocks crashed, the risk is elevated, rated are down sharply but BND wasn't up which is what you expect from a high rated bond index. VBTLX which is equal to BND but doesn't trade was up 0.08%. When rates decrease so much I expect bond fund like VBTLX to make more than 0.08%
    All the above didn't make sense to me. Maybe it is just short term. I do the usual when the markets don't make sense to me I sell. It is unusual because in most cases I'm invested at 99+%. In the last 10 years, I was out of the market just 12 weeks (only in 5 weeks I was at 95+% in cash)
    Last Thursday I was at about 50% cash and Friday at 95+% in cash. HY Munis which I had close to 60% of my portfolio were on a tear in the last month and even last week. It was time for me to sell.
    YTD I'm way over my goals of 6%. I can take time out and can "miss" some performance.
  • Investing for Income in Today's Environment
    +1. And I understand there are zero-coupon bonds, and bonds which pay monthly or quarterly. The div has to come from somewhere. I once owned a foreign "zero," denominated in USD, and when it paid, after 10 years, my money was nearly doubled. I recall the rate on it was about 5.68%.
  • Investing for Income in Today's Environment
    (Before I go and read your link:) One's situation and specific circumstances do matter, of course. Our expenses are higher, here. But so is net income. And expenses will get HIGHER next year. People are willing to do a great deal with and for people they love. Having the monthly dividends may prove to be a necessity, when the Spring of 2021 comes. Part of this picture is simply personal preference. Monthly dividends help to cover monthly expenses. Meanwhile, my well-chosen EQUITY funds will grow, over the long-term. Of course, there are no guarantees. I could be dead tomorrow. Did you say, "Jerry Gallo?" .... Yes, I did..... "Jerry Gallo's DEAD!"