Yes it was a nice and well thought out post Ron. I am on the other end of the spectrum saying many times here that no one should trade, speculate, invest in precious metals. Silver is lower now than in the 1970s and gold not much above its 1970s highs. Stock indexes on the other hand trading huge multiples above their 70s levels. I've been around gold, silver bugs/aficionados since 1962 when my friend's brother-in-law was saying buy gold and run for the hills become the communists are going to take over. I simply have never understood the mindset of the gold/silver/insurance/end of the world crowd.
But this is just me and if that is your thing then by all means go for it. For gold and silver devotees it is like a religion. And I learned to never debate/denigrate anyone's religious/political beliefs. Professor Jeremy Siegel pretty much laid it out for gold in the 1998 edition of his book. Adjusting for inflation he compared the total returns for stocks, bonds, bills, and gold from 1802 to 1997. He used the London spot price for gold. $1 in stocks returned $558,945 vs. $803 for bonds, $275 for bills and $0.84 for gold.
Edit: Hank and Ron and regarding a topic I posted about the other day. I can guarantee you that you two guys have a pension. Those of us like me that don't can't be "playing" around in the precious metals and funds like PRPFX - a five year loser. I don't mean that in a ornery manner either. It's just a fact that we pensionless folks look at the trading/investing landscape through entirely different lenses.

Right, when you compare it with SP500 for 8/7/6/5/4/3/2/1y with each period ending yesterday, and certainly if you start 7y ago and exclude 8y, it is rather more a coinflip, 50-50. M* of course lets you do any start and end date you wish. As you say, a consistency measurement.
If you had instead bought hindsight winner SMVLX 1, 2, or 8y ago, you would have done worse than PRBLX. But not for the other 02/06/2nnn 1-year periods. Interesting.
The RARE funds presumably all have same management for the last 8y?

@davidmoran, you are measuring a different thing. This is explained in my earlier thread/post on the results and in the discussion above. That difference is exactly the thesis for this study. Simply put, what you have measured is the relative performance for a specific start or end date for the various periods. If you were to vary the start or end dates for measuring it, you will find a different value for the over or under performance. If you were to do it for all possible start or end dates, you would get a distribution of values. The RARE grades are based on that distribution to see how sensitive the over or under performance is to when you start or end your investment for a fixed length of investment.
In the case of PRBLX, the 5yr expected alpha (over performance) across all possible 5 yr periods was 1.36% (cumulative not annualized). This is in the index hugger region. But the median was -0.94%. In other words, if investors invested uniformly in that period, half the people would have seen slight underperformance relative to index. Hence the C-. Or if you were hypothetically adding to it every day, half of your lots would be worse off than an index after 5 years from their purchase. Not intuitive from looking at a snapshot at any one time but this is what happens.
What that means is that PRBLX overperformed in some period over the last 8 years and if your investment period happened to coincide with sufficient part of it, you would benefit otherwise you would see the same as or worse than an index fund. The current available metrics/tools do not expose this aspect of the performance. RARE does.
PS: I am using the category index returns to benchmark that being the S&P 500 for large blend. The category average that M* uses is not very useful since it is a simple average over the funds in that category and subject to distortions by outliers. Besides, you cannot buy a fund that gives you category averages as the alternative. You can buy an index fund instead of the fund being studied, hence the comparison more useful.

"Discrete" variables that are referenced in commentary, variables such as Jan Barometer, Sell in May, X mas rally, Super Bowl Indicator, election year anomaly, etc., are difficult to legitimize in use towards asset allocation decision making.
The higher, new frontier research of "tactical" investing entails the use of quantitatively derived, statistically significant, multi variables combined into a cohesive, rules based, sequentially signaled asset allocation model.
As the January barometer may have statistical merit, one of the variables incorporated into my model, "similar" to the performance output of the month of January, calculates performance scores / "risk profiles" from a time series applied to the mid month periods of the months of Nov - Jan. These risk profiles then correlate to the forward 11 month returns of the market. Logic output from other priced based variables * come into play culminating in asset allocation decisions with high confidence.
The statistical distribution of variable # 2 mentioned above https://docs.google.com/document/d/17wSv7pobin6xgGXxe6MZSfZ6C-_ungJgMQBQd9O4CJY/edit?usp=sharing ( 2016 has been recently identified as a "high risk" profile year.
* price based variables at bottom: https://stockmarketmap.wordpress.com/2015/11/14/market-map-model-tactical-asset-allocation-using-low-expense-index-etfs-2015/
I have acquired / innovated variables geared towards the "long term" trend. This is important in the construction of a tactical model and geometric compounding of assets because, as the "short term" trend reflects noise and randomness, the long term trend reflects the assimilation and evolution of "robust" factors ( expected earnings, monetary flows, economic confirmations) leading to "persistence" of trend.

Our Premium site now reflects risk and return data through January.
It was a tough month for equity funds.
Here's quick summary table showing average fund total return for January, organized by SubType:

Table reflects 9,095 rated funds, oldest share class only, at least three months old, excludes money market funds. Assets under management (AUM) data reflect all share classes.
More on some specific fund observations shortly, but one of largest funds by AUM, Fidelity Select Portfolios: Biotechnology Portfolio (FBIOX), dropped a heart-stopping 27.5%.

Thanks Rono, I was wondering if you'd chime in or not!
Ramble away, I'm soaking it all in. I remember your pounding the table for pm's 5 or 6 years ago, which led to my buying GLD, CEF and GDX back then. I owe you a beer or 4, thanks!
Momentum seems to have switched in favor of GDX for the moment. Thanks also for your comments on momentum investing. Don't think I'll do so, but the temptation is there. I don't have the time during the day to watch the ticker, plus I have a wife and 2 kids to think about. I've enjoyed everyone's input though!

Howdy PopTart,
I too have been watching the space very closely and actually added to my VERY small positions with junior silver miners just yesterday.
First of all I am still of the mind that everyone should have a wee bit of precious metals in their portfolio. By wee, I'm talking 3-10%. I consider this to be a security blanket type of investment (something for that EOTWAWKI moment). My grandkids have their bed buddies and my pm holding is my bed buddy.
More pm than this core holding is speculation. Speculation is fine and fun so long as you realize the risks. Is now a good time to speculate? What do I know? When I play with investments, speculate, if you will, I lean towards momentum investing. In this I look for trends and when they appear, gradually scale in to my target amount - as long as the trend (momentum) is with me. Let's say you think this nascent trend in the pm's is going to last, and you figure you have $10K to play. Invest $2500 and see if you make money. If you do, add another $2500 and again, see if you make money. If you do, go with the remaining $5K. If at any time it doesn't make money - do not add any more. If it loses, or starts to, have a mental stop loss of say 5-10% at which point, you start scaling out of the play. If it drops some more - exit. This momentum style investing and my penchant for this particular arena, is why I added to my junior silver miners yesterday.
Now as for investing in pms. Funds and ETFs are of two types - bullion and mining stocks. Bullion ETFs will tax your gains at the Collectible rate of 28%. My favorite fund is still TGLDX which does have a little bullion but is taxed at normal cap gain rates. Or, you can go with CEF, a closed end bullion fund that is about 55/45 gold to silver. Or you can go with mining stock funds, ETFs or individual stocks. Lastly, and this is important to many people. For you core holding in pm's, the 'hard corps' recommend holding the physical metal. Although some peeps like safe deposit boxes and such, cripes, a roll of American Gold Eagles comes in a tube 2" tall and the size of a quarter. You can hide it in the oatmeal box and it's worth ~$25,000.
All this said, at this point in time, based upon the metrics of the gold/XAU and gold/silver ratios, miners are undervalued vs. bullion and silver is undervalued vs. gold. Note that this is on the margin. The great leverage is with the junior miners but this is also nose bleed territory. My only homerun in about 40 years of investing was with Silver Wheaton that I bought around 2002-3 for under 3 that I sold in the 40's. Cha-ching!
Right now there are several geopolitical factors at play. China's economy has slowed and they have been fairly steady gold buyers both by the CB and by individuals. The threat of terrorist attacks has really spooked the traveling public and this fear translates in to bullion demand. We also have the zika virus shutting down travel to central and south American and I am far from convinced that Rio is going to be able to even have the Olympics. Oh, and did I forget the Saud family's gas war to end all gas wars? And with Iran coming online, I don't see oil much higher than today for quite a while.
Now all this stuff is what Fear and Loathing are made of (where's Hunter?).
BUT when all is said and done, the POG is dependent upon the price of the U.S. Dollar. Because gold is priced in terms of the dollar and the dollar is the world's reserve currency, they normally are indirectly proportional and this has greatly contributed in the pull back in bullion prices from it's high of ~$1900 in 2011. Recall that the great bull market ran from 2002-3 until this time and commodity bull markets normally last in the 12-15 range. This is due to the complexity of bringing additional supply online in response to higher demand and prices (e.g. you have to find it).
As for the dollar, I've said it was trash since they started QE-nth but compared to any alternative currency, it is still the cleanest pair of dirty socks in the hamper. Lately, it's been showing some weakness but due to ???? Although, I'm starting to sense a negative impact on the dollar caused by the anger of the general public directed at Washington is the support for Trump and Sanders.
Sorry to ramble on,
and so it goes,
peace,
rono

What am I doing wrong? When M* graphs the C- (b/w Closet indexer and Pretender) PRBLX against Large Blend for 8/7/6/5/4/3/2/1y, it always outperforms, sometimes significantly. Is that not the right measure?

First, I've always considered gold a very dicey investment. Some here do not even consider it an investment. It's liable to do anything, including doubling quickly or falling by half just as quickly. I'd be loath to suggest anyone touch it because you can get burnt really badly. Most gold funds invest in miners, not bullion, so it's technically incorrect to consider them the equivalent of gold. They're not, but do tend to benefit when gold rises.
Having said that, OPGSX is my best performer since early September when I bought it (+19%), also my best performer this year (+13%), also my only fund to show green yesterday. This may be simply the Broken Clock Phenomenon playing out. Even perennial laggard HSGFX is up 5% YTD.
My other better performing investments lately have been PRPFX and international bonds (notably RPIBX). Like gold, these types of investments benefit when the dollar weakens or looks like it is about to. Also, fear of both bonds and equities may be driving some investors into these investments.
---
Added: If someone feels gold has a future, I'd be a lot more comfortable with them looking at a fund like HSTRX, which plays around a bit in the metal, but hedges against the kind of potential 25-50% losses gold funds are known for. It's up 3.5% YTD.
Caution: I'm not an expert and probably don't know what I'm talking about.

FYI: (Scroll & Click On Article Title Google Search) "Top Mutual Fund Families"
The top firms in 2015 Barron’s/Lipper Fund Family Ranking avoided the pitfalls of last year. Two leaders: Thrivent Financial and Eaton Vance.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.google.com/#q=top+mutual+fund+families+Barron's
Graphic Look:
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/BestFundFamiliesOf2015.pdf
5 & 10 Year Ranking:
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/BestFundFamilies5-YearAnd10-YearRankings.pdf

@PopTart: Here's some food for thought from Barron's.
Regards,
Ted
http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2016/02/05/revenge-of-the-gold-bugs-gold-etf-notches-5-weekly-advance-biggest-since-2013/tab/print/

Significant Insider BUYING over the last three months....
http://i.share.pho.to/ae3f57ce_o.png

Hi slick. I don't kid myself that the trailing stop is the end-all. I'm hoping that it saves me from big losses more times then not. If it wip-saws me, so be it. Setting a "liberal" as you say stop at 15-20% kind of doesn't make sense to me. If you do that you pretty much lock in a big loss. To me at that point, if you still like the stock, it would be hold 'till it recovers. I have 2 I bought before implementing trailing stop like that. Mistakes, but I'll wait it out.
I can think of 2 examples lately where the trailing stop worked well. I bought AAPL back in late summer at about 110. The stock rose to around 123-124 and then started to trend down. My 6% stop from recent high sold me out at about 117. Not a huge profit but it kept me from a big loss. Apple was in the 90's last I looked.
Another example was CHKP. Bought at 68.5, rode it up to about 88 before it too started to dip. My stop took me out at about 82.5. Nice profit on that one. I like that stock, so I actually bought back in when it kept trending down at about 76. We'll see how that goes.
Those are a couple winning moves. I won't get into the SLB or BABA buys before deciding to use stops.

Tick tock tick tock......
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-02-05/chevron-downgraded-first-time-since-1987

@MikeM: I too have two buckets for stocks, and virtually all of my stocks are in iras, so preserving of capital is not necessarily priority one, although still important. I learned early on that setting a stop loss almost guarantees it will hit it :) My long term stock stop losses were fairly liberal (generally 15-20% down from purchase price) and once hit they went right back above and stayed above there for the most part. Some I bought back, some I let go. My other bucket , some people call spifs, are always 5% or less of portfolio and primarily are composed of 4 or 5 small or midcap stocks. There are not intended to be long term holds, but one or two I have kept for more than one year, but watch very closely. I no longer use stop losses on these either. I just watch them closely, retired.

Buying individual, stocks to be honest, is just a recent "hobby" for me. I set aside a small bucket to play with. The first thing I learned (after mistakes) was to establish with yourself your mind set for the purchase. My mind-set had to be 1 of 2 categories, buy it and hold it, or speculating to hopefully make a profit over a short or long time. Speculating definitely requires establishing the sell point.
If you want to preserve capital as Junkster said, you must set a trailing-stop on the stock. You have to do that right after your purchase. I decided my method would be the 1% rule. Never loose more than 1% of your stock bucket on any single purchase. For example, if you decide you have $10,000 to invest (or play with in my case) in stocks and spend $2000 on a specific stock, set the trailing stop at 5% (($10,000 x 1%)/$2000) = 5%. Allow the stock to trend up (hopefully) and if it drops 5% from it's recent high - auto sell.
Are there other sell rules people use? Like I said, I'm new at this and really have had mixed results. My worst buys were before implementing the trailing stop - for sure. Still hanging on to my first buy, SLB. Darn stock increased ~20% at one point for me, then lost all that and more. But that helped me learn.

Rally is starting next week! :)
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/05/saut-expects-bottom-next-week-then-stock-rally.html

High Yield Corps - need to see how stocks behave - still a risky trade to me
They have actually bottomed before stocks YTD. At 36% going into today and will be 41% after the close. My friend here who trades like me is much higher. In the past I would have been a lot higher being that we now have had two 9 to 1+ days in one week. Age must be catching up with me Either that or I keep thinking there is another shoe to drop in high yield. But as I have said in the past, I never make money with my thinking.

The dividend yield on HYG for example, and link to stocks risk reward ratio just doesn't work for me at this time.

Good thinking Dex. Although I hope if you do go into junk corps it is with an open end and not an ETF. My latest foray into junk corps was a bust. Sold down to 8% which will be zero at the close. Back to 65% in the junk munis and may go higher today. Actually, it is the CA munis which are leading in 2016. While I may be in the black YTD, still have made several bonehead moves.

They also have some larger institutions, I believe, where something like $25k wouldn't be meaningful so I doubt that would happen.