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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Seasonal PSA

    Just a friendly reminder that "this the season" for year-end mutual fund distributions. So if anyone's fund drops a surprisingly bazillion bucks on any given day (other than an instant recession hitting!) between now and 12/31 you're probably fine. Check your statement for year-end gains/distributions if you're not sure. :)
  • Jeez Sequoia
    Distributions paid today.
    See this link(also posted in CG distributions):
    https://www.sequoiafund.com/Communications
    LONG-TERM CAP GAIN
    $6.2748
    SHORT-TERM CAP GAIN
    $0.328
    DIVIDEND (ORDINARY)
    $1.1628
  • Hot Semiconductor Stocks Power Biggest YTD Gains In The Chip Sector: (SPGP)
    The article is about individual stocks and ETFs, but there is a mutual fund in this space: Fidelity Select Semiconductors (FSELX)
    It's my largest holding (held in my IRA) and I'm smiling right now -- total return: up 55% YTD, up 19.55%/year for ten years.
    We also put FLSEX in my wife's Roth IRA when she first opened it years ago.
    It's volatile though.
    David
  • Where To Invest $10,000 Right Now
    @Simon: Nice find, I had a Bank Of China CD mature today at 2.0% and replaced it with a Mizrahhi Tefahot LA CD 1.60% maturing on 3/3/20. Also, took my RMD
    Regards,
    Ted
  • SICAV?
    Thank you @Ted. Here I’m guilty of sloppy research. Should have Googled the fund code. Wikipedia also explains it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SICAV
    An interesting question is why T Rowe hasn’t gotten around to offering a precious metals fund yet, seeing as how they offer virtually everything else under the moon in terms of investing approaches? While not a ringing endorsement, there was at least a “nod” in favor of p/m investments in their recent “T Rowe Price Reports”, a section of which I posted yesterday.
    Here’s the line that caught my attention: “The similarities with the economic conditions of the 1970s suggest that stagflation trades, such as gold and inflation-linked securities, could be effective.”
    Here’s the link to the TRP commentary I posted: https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/pt/en/thinking/articles/2019/q3/why-central-bank-independence-could-become-a-thing-of-the-past.html
    And here’s a link to my earlier thread: “Central Bank Independence Could Become a Thing of the Past”: https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/54294/why-central-bank-independence-could-become-a-thing-of-the-past-t-rowe-price
    Most interesting that a day after I posted, the Prez and Powell met at the WH. Quite unusual I think.
  • Hot Semiconductor Stocks Power Biggest YTD Gains In The Chip Sector: (SPGP)
    FYI: Large and midcap growth dominated U.S. diversified stock funds during the past month, while resurgent semiconductor stocks fueled chip-focused sector funds .
    Invesco S&P 500 GARP (SPGP) topped diversified stock ETFs with a 33.4% year-to-date gain through Nov. 13, according to Morningstar Direct. The $345.6 million fund, which tracks the S&P 500 Growth at a Reasonable Price Index, was called Invesco Russell Top 200 Pure Growth and tracked the Russell 200 Pure Growth Index until June 21.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etfs/semiconductor-stocks-power-chip-sector-biggest-ytd-gains/
    M* Snapshot SPGP:
    https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/spgp/quote
  • Ben Carlson: What Would You Have Done In 2009?
    FYI: A reader asks:
    What would you have advised me to do in 2009? I wanted to put $XX [Ben’s note: a lot of money] in the total stock market and ride the index. I had around $XX [Ben’s note: about one-third as much as the amount in cash] in VTSMX at that time. I had been waiting for a blood in the streets event and was licking my lips. I read every book on 1929 and I figured it went down 89% and that if I enter at 50% of the 2007 high I might be ok. I picked 6300 as a starting point. I remembered reading about the dead cat bounce in 1929 before a further fall to 89%. As you know it never fell back and I never got invested.
    This is tough to answer because we now have the benefit of hindsight. But this reader is not alone sitting in cash waiting to deploy in the stock market at lower levels following the crisis.
    It’s also tough because no two crashes are ever the same.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD - November 2019
    Good heavens, Skeet. That is the most whimsically elaborate mechanism to achieve a relatively simple objective I have ever seen ...
    Perhaps not. Take a look at this alarm clock.
    image
  • Where To Invest $10,000 Right Now
    Here's something a little different!
    Capital One is offering a cash bonus of $200 on their new 360 Performance Savings Account. Deposit $10,000 within 10 days of account opening and you will receive a $200 cash bonus into your account after 90 days.
    The current APY for this account is 1.8%. With a $200 cash bonus on $10,000 that boosts the effective 12 month return to 3.8%. Not bad for an FDIC insured investment. I've already taken advantage of this offer. Here's the link:
    https://www.capitalone.com/save1000/
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD - November 2019
    Hi @Starchild,
    Thanks for your comment and question that you directed my way. Many of my American Fund holdings came to me via gift and inheritance with some of the funds dating back a couple of generations thus being in family hands all the way back to my great grandfather. As my great grandfather and grandfather sold off farm land they invested the sale proceeds and spread it out among family members with some of it being invested in American Funds. We also have a policy of not putting all of our eggs in a single basket.
    Starchild I'd like your thoughts on where I overlap. Please consider manager stradegy with your answer as the funds might occupy the same style boxes, etc. but the managers themselves differ using many different investment strategies. Notice I've got growth, value, momentum, contrarian, equity dividend, fixed income of many types, special opportunity, etc.
    I'm posting my sleeve management system along with portfolio positions so you have an understaning of what I actually do own for a better understanding of how I govern family money.
    Consolidated Master Portfolio & Sleeve Management System ... Last Revised on 11/15/2019
    Now being in retirement here is a brief description of my sleeve management system which I organized to better manage the investments held within mine and my wife's portfolios. The consolidated master portfolio is comprised of two taxable investment accounts, two self directed retirement accounts, a health savings account plus two bank savings accounts. With this, I came up with four investment areas. They are a Cash Area which consist of two sleeves ... an investment cash sleeve and a demand cash sleeve. The next area is the Income Area which consist of two sleeves ... an income sleeve and a hybrid income sleeve. Then there is the Growth & Income Area which has more risk associated with it than the Income Area and it consist of four sleeves ... a global equity sleeve, a global hybrid sleeve, a domestic equity sleeve and a domestic hybrid sleeve. Then there is the Growth Area where the most risk in the portfolio is found and it consist of five sleeves ... a global growth sleeve, a large/mid cap sleeve, a small/mid cap sleeve, an other investment sleeve plus a special investment (spiff) sleeve. The size of each sleeve can easily be adjusted, from time-to-time, by adjusting the number of funds held and their amounts. By using the sleeve management system I can get a better picture of my overall investment landscape. I have found it beneficial to Xray each fund, each sleeve, each investment area, and the portfolio as a whole quarterly for analysis. All my funds with the exception of those in my health savings account pay their distributions to the Cash Area of the portfolio. This automatically builds cash in the Cash Area to meet the portfolio's disbursement needs (when necessary) with the residual being left for new investment opportunity. Generally, in any one year, I take no more than a sum equal to one half of my portfolio's five year average return. In this way principal builds over time. In addition, most buy/sell transactions settle from, or to, the Cash Area with some net asset exchanges between funds taking place. My rebalance threshold is + (or -) 2% of my neutral allocation for my Income Area, Growth & Income Area and Growth Area while I generally let the Cash Area float. However, at times, I can tactically position by setting a target allocation that is different from the neutral weighting to overweight (or underweight) an area without having to do a forced rebalance. I do an Instant Xray analysis of the portfolio quarterly and make asset weighting adjustments as I feel warranted based upon my assessment of the market(s), my goals, my risk tolerance, my cash needs, etc. I have the portfolio set up in Morningstar's portfolio manager by sleeve, by each area and the portfolio as a whole for easy monitoring plus I use brokerage account statements, Morningstar fund reports, fund fact sheets along with their annual reports to follow my investments. In addition, I use my market barometer and equity weighting matrix system as a guide to assist me in throttling my equity allocation through the use of equity ballast, or a spiff position, when desired. I also maintain a list of positions to add (A) to, to buy (B), to reduce (R), or to sell (S). Generally, funds are assigned to a sleeve based upon a best fit basis. Currently, my investment focus is to position new money into income generating assets. The last major rebalanced process was started during the 4th Quarter of 2018 and was completed in the 1st Quarter of 2019 with some sleeves being reconfigured along with the movement to a new asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity.
    Portfolio Asset Allocation: Balanced Towards Income ... 20% Cash, 40% Income, 30% Gr & Inc and 10% Growth
    CASH AREA: (Weighting Range 15% to 25%, Neutral 20%, Target 15%, Actual 14%)
    Demand Cash Sleeve ... Cash Distribution Accrual & Future Investment Accrual
    Investment Cash Sleeve ... MMK Funds: AMAXX, GOFXX(B), PCOXX, CD Ladder(R) & Savings
    INCOME AREA: (Weighting Range 35% to 45%, Neutral 40%, Target 40%, Actual 39%)
    Income Sleeve: APIUX(A), BLADX(A), GIFAX, JGIAX(A), NEFZX, PGBAX, PONAX & TSIAX
    Hybrid Income Sleeve: AZNAX(A), BAICX, CTFAX(A), DIFAX, FBLAX, FISCX, FKINX, FRINX, ISFAX, JNBAX & PMAIX
    GROWTH & INCOME AREA: (Weighting Range 25% to 35%, Neutral 30%, Target 30%, Actual 32%)
    Domestic Equity Sleeve: ANCFX, FDSAX, INUTX(A) & SVAAX
    Domestic Hybrid Sleeve: ABALX, AMECX, HWIAX & LABFX
    Global Equity Sleeve: CWGIX, DEQAX, DWGAX(A) & EADIX
    Global Hybrid Sleeve: CAIBX, TEQIX & TIBAX
    GROWTH & OTHER ASSET AREA: (Weighting Range 5% to 15%, Neutral 10%, Target 15%, Actual 15%)
    Large/Mid Cap Sleeve: AGTHX, AMCPX & SPECX
    Small/Mid Cap Sleeve: AOFAX, NDVAX & PMDAX
    Global Growth Sleeve: ANWPX, NEWFX & SMCWX
    Other Investment Sleeve: KAUAX(A), LPEFX & PGUAX
    Equity Ballast & Spiff Sleeve: No position held at this time.
    Currently, I'm heavy in equity awaiting December mutual fund capital gain distributions that will preform an automatic rebalance of sorts by raising my cash allocation as I recieve all mutual fund distributions in cash. This should bubble me back towards a 20%/40%/40% asset allocation. Equities, indeed, had a nice run this year.
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD - November 2019
    I am building positions in VWIAX-Wellesly, VMNVX-VangGlobLowVol & BAFWX-BrownAdvSusGrowth. I am 15 months away from retirement at the age of 65, slowly selling high SD funds.
  • 2019 Capital Gains distribution estimates
    I agree 100% with Old_Skeet's comment Shadow. Your posts help me every year. I have no idea where you find all of the estimated distributions for the many funds out there.
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD - November 2019
    Hi @Puddnhead,
    In answering your question(s). I got up early this morning to read the proof edition of the Observer. Just kidding. I'm diabetic and I was up for my early morning snack which I do most mornings around 3:00 am.
    As for VWINX ... There are many good income allocation funds. I can not own them all plus if I were to own VWINX I'd have to hold it in a wrap account, with my broker, since it is a no load fund. To keep things simple and still receive a consodilated IRS 1099 Form I have one single taxable account as many funds I own came to me through both gift and inheritance. In a good number of cases I can buy in this account at nav or reduced sales charges as there are several generations of compounding that have taken place in some of these holdings dating back to my great grandfather.
    When, I can't buy at reduced sales charges (or at nav) I simply pay the commission as there are no charges what-so-ever charged to me by the broker as long as it holds A or C share funds. And, the commisions I do pay are very small in size relative to the size of this account.
    KAUAX is one of my favorite funds. Although it is classified as a mid cap growth fund it fills all the style boxes plus it will hold cash if it can not find good opportunity. The last time I looked it was holding better than 20% in cash. Plus, it usually pays a sizeable capital gain distribution each year; and, being retired that's cash in my pocket. To me that's just as good as an income fund.
    Thanks again for taking over the thread a few years back that was started by Scott and which I ran for a few years. Now, its future lies with you. Back then it was titled "Buy, Sell or Ponder." You and Duke are doing a great job. I've been watching and it draws a good readership.
    And ... May God Bless ... you as well!
    Skeet
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD - November 2019
    Hi @Derf,
    Thank you for your question concerning how much equity a fund can hold and be considered a holding for the income area of the portfolio. There are two income sleeves. One is the income sleeve and the other is the hybrid income sleeve.
    Generaly the income sleeve can hold up to 15% equity with no one fund within the sleeve holding more than what is allowed for a 15% to 30% asset allocation fund. The hybrid income sleeve can hold asset allocation funds that are of the 30% to 50% equity type. Some exceptions may apply.
    Any asset allocation fund that holds more than 50% in equity goes on the equity side of the portfolio and is held in the growth & income area of the portfolio in either the domestic hybrid sleeve or the global hybrid sleeve.
  • Merrill Edge not very mutual fund friendly
    An update on my status and that of Merrill Edge.
    Until a few months ago, Merrill Edge was tracking mutual fund lots incorrectly (See April 28th post, above.) I sent Merrill a request to correct the figures. Its response was to rejigger the numbers, keeping all the lots as whole shares (instead of precise decimal numbers), while rearranging the fictitious lots and giving them changed fictitious prices.
    So then I wrote the SEC. In the meantime, I transferred my taxable account to Fidelity. Merrill sent the fictitious data to Fidelity along with the shares. Upon the SEC forwarding my inquiry to Merrill, as a courtesy Merrill updated Fidelity with the correct share quantities and prices.
    Merrill noted in its response to me that it had improved its system - it could now track fractional mutual fund shares. While the response described how the jiggering mechanism worked, it was silent about how this mechanism managed to jigger two different sets of records. They couldn't both be correct, could they? (In point of fact, they were equally wrong.)
    Merrill likely recognized how far behind the industry it was. It has not touted this "upgrade" the way a provider making a real improvement would. Nor has it corrected its customers' accounts (it only sent the corrections to Fidelity). Perhaps because that would have made account holders aware of its data fudging?
    Merrill may now be able to track fractional shares of a mutual fund, but a customer still cannot enter a sell order with a fractional number of shares. As with stocks, the only way to do that is to "sell all". When you do that, you get the message:
    Quantity: The quantity entered results in fractional shares remaining for the symbol entered. The fractional position will be liquidated post settlement.
    Yeah, right. Despite the "upgrade", one still cannot specify lots online when selling mutual funds.
    All told, I am never, ever going to keep a taxable account at Merrill again. I'll keep enough in an IRA there to get credit card perks, no more. And I'm moving holdings in that IRA to ETFs. Even in an IRA where tracking is unnecessary, I don't have faith in Merrill's ability to handle MF transactions well.
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD - November 2019
    Hi Skeeter,
    Good to hear from you. Your funds are always things I have to look up because I've never seen them before.....lol. Just goes to show you how different people are, and that's a good thing. On your AA funds, I'm curious.....do you own VWINX? If not, why? I also own more than I fund in this space....BTBFX. I think of it as a barbell approach.
    As for JGIAX, I have been running more quality bond funds except for PONAX. I'm not sure what's in their black box. DUGAX---have been staying away from EM due to the Blonde One's temper tantrums on trade. Do have 2 on a short buy list though: FEMKX and NGCAX. We'll see......
    As for VADAX -- why not just use the S&P? Just curious.....
    Now, for the big one, KAuAX......I forgot all about this one. Owned it in my 401 years ago before it got cut from the plan. This is one I should have....somebody may have to go in this space. I'm overloaded. BTMFX, CIPMX, FAMEX, PARMX, UMBMX. As you know, my soft spot is mid's. They are the teenagers with promise. Also I worked for a mid cap company.....great leadership and a family culture. It was great.
    God bless
    the Pudd
    p.s. And what are you doing up at 3:00am????
  • Retirement strategies for Widow (or Widower)
    Just a quick follow-up to @msf’s mention of “basic target date fund” here. I seemed to recall that T. Rowe is able to enhance (at least one of) these funds to provide automatic monthly payouts from it. This link is to their related literature. https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/mutual-funds/target-date-funds/income-funds.html?van=IncomeFunds
    I’m less inclined to recommend Warren Buffett’s plan for his wife, discussed extensively here after it was revealed at a Berkshire meeting in 2013. For one, Buffett is hardly your “typical” investor. Secondly, I’m not a fan of index funds and think his plan too risky anyway. Depending on the amount of time you have, this article discusses Buffet’s plan. An embedded link covers practical matters like asset allocation and password management, than deviates into some “off the wall” suggestions like selling the house. https://www.mymoneyblog.com/buffett-simple-advice-after-death.html
  • Retirement strategies for Widow (or Widower)
    There are the matters of withdrawal (income) stream and investments.
    To keep it as simple as possible, I would suggest whittling the accounts down to five (assuming you trust your spouse enough to keep all taxable moneys in a joint account):
    1. JWROS (or C/P WROS) joint taxable account
    2a and 2b Traditional IRA account for each spouse (with other spouse as beneficiary)
    3a and 3b Roth IRA account for each spouse (with other spouse as beneficiary)
    There are situations where this is not the best arrangement, but it is the simplest and will work for many couples. At death, the IRAs are rolled into the surviving spouse's respective IRAs.
    Keep all accounts with a single brokerage (e.g. Fidelity, Schwab, Vanguard, TDA, etc.) Again for simplicity.
    A simple robo advisor or a basic target date fund will automatically maintain the selected glide path/asset allocation. IMHO there isn't a huge amount of difference in behaviour or cost between these approaches.
    If one wants a little interaction (hand holding) a hybrid robo like Vanguard's (30 basis points, uses Vanguard index funds) may suffice. That also provides someone familiar with the basic needs of the surviving spouse in case questions arise.
    There's a fair amount of automation that can be set up for withdrawals, though it might fall just short of what's needed. One can set up automatic RMDs from the traditional IRA to the taxable account, and automated periodic withdrawals from the taxable account to a bank account. I'm not sure how to automate drawing additional money from the IRA to cover the taxable account cash withdrawals. (One can set up a fixed IRA withdrawal amount, but what happens once the required RMD exceeds that amount?)
    Drawing only from the T-IRA is sometimes not the optimal withdrawal strategy from a tax perspective. It might be better to split withdrawals between the traditional and Roth IRAs to stay in a lower tax bracket. You could automate that as well, but it would not have the flexibility that an advisor managing a discretionary account could provide.
    Absent the discretionary account, the surviving spouse would be responsible for executing advice provided by a financial advisor. That's not completely hands off. Having seen people who freeze at something as simple as moving money from a 0% interest account to a 1.5% bank account, I view "hands off" as a stringent requirement.
  • Pimco’s Ivascyn Says To Stay ‘Patient’ As Income Fund Lags Peers
    FYI: Now is the time to stay “patient” because assets are expensive, volatility is likely to rise and growth is slowing, according to Pacific Investment Management Co.’s group chief investment officer.
    “We are patient and defensive, maintaining portfolio flexibility with almost every decision we make so we can go on offense on behalf of investors when we see attractive opportunities,” Dan Ivascyn said in an interview PIMCO posted Friday.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-16/pimco-s-ivascyn-says-to-stay-patient-as-income-fund-lags-peers-k322m1d7
  • Social Security ‘Bridge’
    Here's the whole paper:
    https://crr.bc.edu/working-papers/how-best-to-annuitize-defined-contribution-assets/
    About a third is in (relatively) plain English. It discusses why people might want to use annuities and why they might not (both rational and irrational reasons). This includes the newer advanced life deferred annuities ("longevity insurance"). A good summary of the pros and cons.
    The paper compares four options: the baseline (drawing SS at age 65); (1) buying an immediate annuity at age 65 (with 20% or 40% of retirement assets); (2) spending an amount equal to SS's PIA (full retirement benefit) out of 20% or 40% of retirement assets until age 70 or assets depleted, then taking SS; and (3) buying longevity insurance with 20% of retirement assets.
    Generally, non-annuitized assets are drawn down according to RMDs. But if one buys longevity insurance, this doesn't make sense, because at age 85 another income stream kicks in. So the researchers looked at two cases: (a) drawing down according to RMD (i.e. underspending), and (b) spending everything between ages 65 and 85.
    A discussion of the results starts on p. 26 (pdf p. 27). Table 3 summarizes the results. The lower the number, the less you have to spend to get the same result as the baseline. The two cases that came out best were: using 40% of assets to fund income until age 70 and then drawing SS; and buying longevity insurance (spending down everything by age 85).
    A concern with the latter is that you don't have reserves for an emergency around age 85. The next three tables in the results section show how good the strategies are if one assumes random "shocks" (needs for sums of cass). The wealthier you are, the more you can survive shocks even after spending money on annuities (because you're getting higher income from the annuities).
    Perhaps it would only have made a marginal difference, but they might have also considered buying a temporary life annuity to serve as the bridge to SS. That's an annuity that would pay out an income stream from, say, age 65 to age 70 or until death, whichever came first. Since you're betting that you'll live to collect SS at age 70, a temporary life annuity just increases the bet a little. And because you forfeit some money if you don't make it to 70, that temporary annuity costs less than "self-funding" the bridge.