Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Just when you think the market is overpriced
    @hank: There is talk of infrastructure spending and it's been going on since the 2016 presidential campaign, thus my skepticism. In my view, the US is unwilling to invest in infrastructure projects that don't pay for themselves. The wonderful high-speed trains in Europe and Asia do not make money, but they make for great travel and they preserve the environment. California's effort to build an HS train route has been trashed by the same administration that promised infrastructure spending. Very few states appear willing to privatize their toll roads even though it makes perfect sense to do so. BTW, was Mobius partly responsible for the many signals in the past decade or so to buy emerging markets?
    Your comment on gold prompts me to say the physical gold we inherited in 2012 has had a "V" shaped recovery: it has gone from $1675 to $1275 and now back up to $1700+. It cost me more for the safe deposit box than my entire appreciation.
  • CATL - The Million Mile EV Battery Maker
    Other EV News:
    Move over, Tesla Inc., another environmentally friendly vehicle maker is stealing your sunshine. Shares of Nikola Corp. leapt as much as 71% to a record in its third day of trading on the Nasdaq after a reverse merger with VectoIQ Acquisition Corp.
    electric-truck-company-called-nikola-surged-71-in-its-third-day
  • Changes to First Eagle Fund of America
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/906352/000093041320001580/c95954_497.htm
    Changes are in Investment Objective, Investment Strategy, Portfolio Manager Team, Advisory Fee Rate and Expense Limitations of the Fund, and Resignation of Subadviser
  • Gold stocks vs gold: it's rocket time
    Hi Vintage,
    Hope you're doing well and being safe.
    First off, I always maintain a couple of canaries to alert me to movement in the sector. Good or bad, this is where I like to play. Collecting coins for 65 years does things to you.
    I had purchases of ISVLF 1/30/19 @ .2231, 3/24/20 @ .2749, 4/6/20 @ .235. (currently @ .499)
    KOOYF 3/24/20 @ .16 (currently @ .255)
    TKRFF most recent on 4/6/20 @ .088 (currently @ .1405)
    Please keep in mind that these are penny silver mining stocks and you can rest assured that you will see massive volatility. It is COMMON to see 10% point swings in a day.
    And please let me repeat that the vast majority of precious metal mutual funds consist of mining stocks, albeit gold dominate. The bullion plays are mostly ETFs. Be very careful with bullion ETFs as they are taxable at collectible rates (i.e. keep them in deferred or exempt accounts). And I will mention again, I do not like bullion ETFs. Too many accounting issues that give me the creeps. For bullion, the first and foremost alternative is REAL PHYSICAL BULLION. Geez, go with bling is you must. For playing the sector, I like the mining stocks and over the years, silver has been my investment vehicle of choice. Originally per force as a GI bill econ major selling my restaurant stash into the Hunt Bros attempt to corner the market. Silver went up 10x to ~$50. Gold went up 2-3 to $850. Rono partied like a bloody maniac.
    I got into the miners during the Big Bonanza from 2002 to 2011. The leverage is enormous. I was buying Silver Wheaton between $2-4 per and it went to $43. ChaChing! My one and only Home Run.
    and so it goes,
    peace and flatten the curve,
    rono
  • Just when you think the market is overpriced
    here's a visual of those two 9/1 days, set against the backdrop of the nyse composite. only time will tell how etc etc.
    https://ishort.ink/6s5R
  • Steer Clear of Bonds
    Barron’s often features excerpted clips of investment advice from various forecasters. The following comes from this week’s magazine. I don’t know anything about the Aden forecast. The message provides food for thought. Will be interesting in the following months to see how correct they were. (No link / Transcribed from subscription)
    Steer Clear of Bonds The Aden Forecast: Money, Metals, Markets adenforecast.com
    ”June 4: Interestingly, interest rates are starting to rise. The 30-year yield is leading the way. It’s above its 15-week moving average, at a three month high, and the 10-year yield is following. We’ve been showing you how oversold interest rates have been, which means they’re poised to head even higher, especially now that the rise is getting underway. This is going to coincide with an ongoing drop in bond prices, so continue to steer clear of all bonds for now.” *
    Barron’s June 8, 2020 (By Mary Anne and Pamela Aden)
    *There was additional short commentary on action in the U.S. Dollar index. It wasn’t directly related to the above, so I didn’t include it.
  • Just when you think the market is overpriced
    Thanks @Junkster. You’ve been very good luck since returning to the board. Appreciate your wisdom and experience. I’m not knowledgeable on technicals or the Zweig Indicator. But darned near worshiped Lou and Marty and the old gang. Sometimes for guidance I envision what Lou might say in the middle of a tough market stretch. Toss in ever-optimistic John Templeton (a frequent guest) and I’m geared to go!
    Man. I don’t remember a moon-shot like the markets have been experiencing the past month - while well aware it could end at anytime. To show how hot things are, two of my nat resource funds (PRNEX and PRAFX) each gained over 2% today despite oil, which they’re loaded with, being down. An unheard of divergence there. And my more aggressive DODBX has been outrunning more sedate holds like PRWCX and RPGAX ever since we hit bottom. Today, its gain in percentage terms (1.87%) exceeded the gain of the other two funds combined.
    Your Drukenmiller mention is appropriate. While he’s one of the better ones out there, the TV pundits generally serve as better indicators of current market sentiment and conditions than as predictors of future market behavior. Would be amusing were it not so costly to many.
    From this week’s Barron’s:
    “The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.”- F. Scott Fitzgerald (as quoted by Randall Forsyth)
    And this - “Baring a city-size meteor striking Earth, the (S&P) index could hit a new high by year end. With the meteor strike, we might get there by Independence Day” - Jack Hough
    LOL
  • Just when you think the market is overpriced
    Two 9 to 1 up/down volume days in a row. Can’t recall that ever occurring. This means both of Marty Zweig’s indicators have kicked in within a week of each other, I had a study last January on Morningstar (which I can’t locate) about how rare and bullish this is for the next six months.I believe something like 4 occasions over the past 60 years. It occurred early last January 2019, March 2009, January 1987, and August 1982.
  • Wall Street next week
    https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/wall-street-next-week-202006071602
    Wall Street next week
    ANALYSIS | Published Jun 07, 2020 16:02 (+00:00)
    1. Markets cannot go higher on valid fundamentals
    We believe the short squeeze (soon) over and any good news MORE THAN built into markets. We also believe this is a time to be defensive rather than FOMO. Going forward economic activity caused by the pandemic should bottom out and a real recovery will happen, but one that is slow going and uneven. We see a U US economic recovery but stock markets NOT V, L or U but W.
    There is very high risk in the market now until late Summer.
    IT IS TIME TO PROTECT/EXIT especially above 3150 SPX.
    POST SUMMER INVESTMENTS SHOULD BE TARGETED FOR A POST COVID-19 WORLD
    Couple fundamental points for next wk
  • AT&T and its brethren pushed through tax cuts in 2017. Will they tackle racial justice now?
    From The Dallas Morning News. Yes I'm one of those always believing there's hope out there.
    "Just say it, said Randall Stephenson: “We got a problem.”
    The CEO of AT&T, like many business leaders, went public last week with his disgust about racism and violence in America. If the words sound familiar, maybe it’s because Stephenson used almost the exact language four years ago in the wake of police killings in downtown Dallas.
    In 2016, he made national news by acknowledging the problem of racism and urging employees to not just be tolerant. “Move into uncomfortable territory,” he said, and really confront the issue of race."
    What has to happen now
  • David Giroux interview on buying during the selloff
    (Cue the Forrest Gump impersonation:) Some here might remember the saga: we wanted to move wifey's 403b at a former employer and just convert it to a Trad IRA with VLAAX. It took them 3 months to even acknowledge that we exist (by mail) to tell us that a request had been made to the old custodian to transfer the money. THEN, we received a 2nd letter from Value Line telling us they were going to try a 2nd request to the old custodian. ("You know why it didn't go through the first time, you geniuses? Because the money isn't THERE any longer!")
    Why would you transfer your money to any fund company and not VG,Fidelity,Schwab?
    Do you open an account with each fund company?
    These 3 make it easy to see all your funds under one roof and exchange funds in the future.
    Fidelity transferred my 401K to rollover IRA in one day, both were at Fidelity and then I bought a fund and transferred it to Schwab to get another cash reward. I have transferred my 401K to rollover IRA thru my career each time I switched a job.
  • David Giroux interview on buying during the selloff
    @hank: Thanks for the reply. After reading your reply I do remember seeing some of your moves on MFO. I purchased two allocation funds mentioned here, SFAAX & VLAAX & bought VWINX at Vanguard. StaySafe, Derf
    @Derf - Sorry for delayed response. I’m aware you were buying back than and either called the bottom or came darn close. I’m looking now at what you picked up. Lipper rates SFAAX quite high except expenses. I like that it has a long track record back to ‘86. VLAAX another pretty good choice, but another with high frees. VWINX is regarded as among the best in its class - but around 60% bonds. I was attempting (with limited success) to steer away from bonds back than. Don’t recall the reason. Possibly the Fed had already signaled their coming move to greater stimulus. That said, I do believe some income producing funds / assets are important to a balanced portfolio - unless of course you are very young. Sometimes it pays to act quickly. I didn’t buy after just a mere 1000-2000 Dow drop. But after 4,000 - 5,000 points down from around 29,500 it made sense to grab the net and start dipping.
  • May Jobs Report Stronger than Expected / PUNDITS!
    @FD1000 - you are seriously misguided and by that I mean stupid but we're not supposed to make ad hominem attacks on this discussion board so I'm going with misguided. What is/are the lib media? Anyone who writes what you disagree with? What hasn't been a lie out of the current administration? 18K and counting. Go ahead and give me your list. Attacking peaceful citizen protestors for a photo op - there's a class act. A man, George Floyd, and so many others died because of attitudes like yours. Money doesn't solve what's wrong with this country and that's all you care about. Show me the proof, your proof, that those unemployment figures are correct.
  • May Jobs Report Stronger than Expected / PUNDITS!
    people, suggest further researching
    drill down into these threads as much as you can stand; Casselman is exemplary
    https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1268936475791548416
  • May Jobs Report Stronger than Expected / PUNDITS!
    Is this the liberal media of which you speak? Because they are reporting 40 million unemployed.
    https://www.oann.com/new-wave-of-u-s-layoffs-feared-as-coronavirus-pain-deepens/
    “ Last week’s filings would raise the number of people who filed claims for unemployment benefits to above 40 million since March 21. Economists cautioned this figure does not represent the number of jobs lost due to the pandemic, citing technical difficulties and procedures at state unemployment offices.”
    Or these liberals?
    https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/jobless-claims-numbers-coronavirus-may-23
  • David Giroux interview on buying during the selloff
    I like to track DODBX, instead. Balanced. Stocks AND bonds. My numbers are from Morningstar. It sits today at 80th percentile among peers. But in real terms, down for 2020 now by just -3.77%. Given the recent uptrend, I'd say it will climb out and produce profit, as well as yield: currently at 2.57%. Looking at percentile rankings going back several, maybe a handful of years, there are some years where it underperformed peers, but most years are good to excellent. It is less consistently wonderful than PRWCX, but PRWCX is still CLOSED.
    Back in 2010, reorienting a friend (and wife's) money, my intent was to spread the money out, to diversify. So, they own both DODBX and PRWCX, still, 10 years on. I guess you just can't have EVERYTHING. Life is like that. And, like me, they are investors, not traders. Trading just seems too much like real WORK!
  • May Jobs Report Stronger than Expected / PUNDITS!
    OMG, the lib media is in shock, they expected at least 7 million job losses and they got +2.5 million gain. The 2.5 million came without help from NY+CA which are still shut down.
    It's terrible for them but good for America.
    Then came their usual, it's a lie, it's meaningless, it's only low paying jobs why cheer.
    When unemployment was the lowest ever (for many categories) months ago even then they didn't cheer. It's so ridiculous.
    Wait, social distancing? no more. Let's march together, burn and loot our cities, and defund the police.