FYI:
Regards,
Ted
WSJ Slant:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-slide-on-oil-rout-1453280805
Bloomberg Slant:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-19/asian-stock-outlook-mixed-after-u-s-equities-dip-to-august-lows
Reuters Slant:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-idUSKCN0UY1EW
Marketwatch Slant;
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-futures-fall-more-than-300-points-as-oil-asia-selloff-rattle-investors-2016-01-20/print
USA Today Slant:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2016/01/20/stocks-set-resume-slide-oil-tanks-anew/79049602/
IBD Slant:
http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=MjEzODkyMjY=
WSJ Markets At A Glance:
http://markets.wsj.com/us
Sector Tracker:
http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
Current Futures: Mixed
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

FPACX 12/31/2015 Update
Positioning:
Gross
exposure to equities
is circa 60%
and net equity exposure is
approximately 56%
Corporate Bonds
increased
to 3.9%
Cash is approximately 39%.
Outlook:
The opportunity set continues to improve marginally
.
We are
researching
various areas
of
the market,
including
oil and gas
and
MLPs,
retail, and industrials
http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/fpa-crescent-fund/q4-2015-crescent-update150F8E52283E.pdf?sfvrsn=2

I have been very disappointed in FPACX which I bought specifically because it should have been a very defensive holding. M* shows it holding 35% cash plus %10% bonds and I don't understand how it could be down so much with such a high cash position.

A December press release describing the acquisition of the Berwyn Funds’ investment advisor is here.

TriState Capital Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSC) entered into a definitive asset-purchase agreement to acquire The Killen Group, Inc. (TKG), an investment management firm and the advisor to The Berwyn Funds.

If you take the S&P 500 index (SPX) to be "the market," at the time of this writing, it has lost more than either FPACX or OAKBX over the periods of 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months, per my reading of results on StockCharts.com. For example, over 1 month, FPACX and OAKBX are down 5.39% and 5.18%, respectively, whereas SPX is down 9.35%; over 3 months, FPACX and OAKBX are down 7.16% and 7.74%, respectively, and SPX is down 10.47%.

FYI: Bond shop betting on an oil-price recovery.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20160119/FREE/160119938?template=printart

I've been reading lots of these type articles lately. Not exactly a prescription for a bottom. Seems the only ones still bearish on junk bonds are Gundlach, Jim Rogers, and Carl Icahn. I thought at the beginning of the year it could be the year for the junk and had around 15% there. I was WRONG and sold. Also like the preferreds and WRONG there immediately. When I am WRONG as is often the case I sell. Still have around 81% in the junk munis and wondering when and if they will finally succumb to the debacle. There will be stress in many municipalities impacted by the decline in oil.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-19/husky-suspends-dividend-cuts-spending-as-oil-rout-deepens
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-19/oil-giants-start-losing-safety-net-as-refining-margins-squeezed

"Global refining margins, the estimated profit from turning oil into gasoline and diesel, fell 34 percent in the fourth quarter, the steepest decline in eight years, to $13.20 a barrel, data on BP Plc’s website show. Every $1 drop cuts BP’s pretax adjusted earnings by $500 million a year, according to its website.
The companies face a squeeze on processing profits as a mild winter curbs demand for heating oil and diesel, creating huge stockpiles in the U.S. and Europe. That’s a reverse from the past two years, a period when refining earnings doubled, and kicks away one of the remaining buffers for integrated oil giants grappling with crude prices at a 12-year low.
“It’s a bit of a double whammy, lower oil prices and refining margins starting to weaken,” said Iain Reid, an analyst at Macquarie Capital Ltd. in London. “The safety net is still there, but there are some holes in it now.”

This game is a long way from being over, and I don't think the oil majors are immune. It may just take a little while until they are impacted. Already, we see income-- both operating and net--- taking a hit with most of them, and if things like refining margins decline to ziltch.... well, are dvd cuts really off the table? Buy those "juicy" yields (aren't they always) and be the bag holder later. No need to rush in; patience could be richly rewarded here.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/808452/000111183016001055/berwyn_497e-0116.htm
497 1 berwyn_497e-0116.htm THE BERWYN FUNDS - 497E
January 19, 2016
THE BERWYN FUNDS
BERWYN FUND
BERWYN INCOME FUND
BERWYN CORNERSTONE FUND
1189 LANCASTER AVE
BERWYN, PA 19312
Supplement to Prospectus dated May 1, 2015
The Prospectus, dated May 1, 2015, of the Berwyn Fund, the Berwyn Income Fund and the Berwyn Cornerstone Fund is hereby supplemented to inform you of important information impacting your investment in The Berwyn Funds. If you have any questions regarding this supplement please call 1-877-454-5536.
The Board of Trustees (the "Board) of The Berwyn Funds has approved the reorganization of the Berwyn Fund, Berwyn Income Fund and the Berwyn Cornerstone Fund (each, an "Acquired Fund") into Berwyn Fund, Berwyn Income Fund and Berwyn Cornerstone Fund (each, an "Acquiring Fund"), respectively, each a series of Investment Managers Trust. Each Acquiring Fund will have the same investment objective, and the policies and strategies of the relevant Acquiring Fund are substantially similar to the Acquired Fund. The reorganization of each Acquired Fund is subject to shareholder approval. Shareholders of the Acquired Fund as of January 11, 2015 (the "Record Date") are eligible to vote at a Special Meeting of Shareholders. If you became a shareholder after the Record Date, you are not eligible to vote at the Special Meeting. All shareholders of record as of the Record Date will receive a combined proxy statement/prospectus describing the terms and conditions of each proposed reorganization. The Funds will mail the combined proxy statement/prospectus in February, 2016 after SEC review and comment. The Special Meeting is scheduled to take place on March 31, 2016.
Investors Should Retain This Supplement for Future Reference
****New registration statement for The Berwyn Funds (with Chartwell name exhibited): http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318342/000139834416009077/fp0017554_485apos.htm

That is the post I remember Hank. And you were prescient in your reply:

A further 50% drop to the $25-$30 dollar area would signal something very wrong with the global economy. I won't, however, rule it out.

But my response must make me a guru...

A different strategy is to wait for the upturn trend to be established before buying.

Problem is I bought SLB a few months after when "oil just had to start an uptrend." I'm down about 20+% on that one.
Good luck on your recent energy fund purchases Hank. I hope it turns around for you - and me.

Can't remember the poster, doesn't matter, who declared about a year or so ago that it's time to jump into energy.

-
@Mike: Possibly your reference is to Delphic Oracle's "Don't Outthink This" thread from December, 2014. http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/53593/#Comment_53593
I didn't take his musings as a declaration. I think he was just questioning whether it was time to make the leap. Oil was trading around $60 then. Anyway, I've excerpted a portion of my response at the time.
I said: "Very difficult to pull off. Markets can remain irrational longer than most of us can remain solvent. The time needed for a bounce-back can be painfully long as those of us who thought Japan looked cheap in 1997 learned the hard way. It looked even cheaper a decade later. Percentages are funny things. Oil & some producers have lost 50 percent this year. That might imply some kind of floor? Nope. They can still drop another 30, 40, or 50 percent next year if they want to. It's very hard to time incremental purchases going down. Tendancy is to buy too early, than to throw good money after bad, than to get frustrated and bail at a loss before rewards are realized." (December 2014)

My ownership in this clobbered sector
Eventide Healthcare & Life Sciences Fund CLASS N SHARES
ETNHX
17.77-0.70(-3.79%)
Jan 19, 4:00PM EST
Performance below does not reflect Today's loss of -3.79% so YTD -26.25 in 11 trading sessions. Popular bio fund FBIOX YTD -23.62XLE (oil sector E T F) YTD -11.84 % AMLP ( M L P etf ) YTD -23.4 SPY (500 stocks) YTD -7.75
ETNHX
Trailing returns
1 day -2.89%
1 week -9.55%
4 week -21.51%
3 month -15.40%
YTD -22.46%
1 year -10.84%
3 years* +20.22%
Standard deviation 1 yr 28.86 3 yr 25.29
https://www.google.com/finance?q=MUTF:ETNHX&ei=BcCeVtH_LoqNmAGh5pu4Bw
https://www.google.com/finance?q=fbiox&ei=Xr6eVrHmLIbKmAG_6oSwBw
As of December 31, 2015:

December 31,2015 top holdings. Still full of promise.Aren't they?Maybe?Hopefully?
Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc (5.56%) Abuse-deterrant treatments for chronic pain
Five Prime Therapeutics Inc (4.46%) Screening human proteins to discover and develop novel drugs
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc (2.39%) Bringing treatments to market for debilitating genetic diseases
Loxo Oncology Inc (2.34%) Treating cancer at the genomic level with targeted chemical therapies
Portola Pharmaceuticals Inc (2.30%) Therapies to treat thrombosis and other hematologic disorders
TESARO Inc (2.30%) Drugs to treat cancers and reduce therapeutic side-effects
Kite Pharma Inc (2.23%) Clinical-stage therapies that harness patients’ immune systems to Fight cancer
DBV Technologies SA (2.21%) Patient-friendly therapies for food and pediatric allergy patients
Celgene Corp (2.20%) Discovery, development and commercialization of life-changing cancer therapies
Seattle Genetics Inc (2.14%) Antibody-drug combinations to treat lymphoma and other cancers
http://eventidefunds.com/our-products/#!healthcare

Many on my screen are down 50%, 60% and more. HZNP, DEPO, TLGT, RMTI, AMAG, AKRX to name just a few. And these just aren't early stage biotechs companies with no earnings on the horizon. Most have rapidly rising earnings and revenues.

The other MIAs were David Herro and Marc Faber. Faber's picks, despite the knitted cap he wore on stage, really tanked in 2015.

Sometimes a lawyer might deflect the blame to a specific party within an organization rather than implicate the entire organization itself. So I don't think the statement that any misdeeds are "contrary to Vanguard's good-faith" efforts is so foolish from a PR perspective. Consider this: If Vanguard loses in the courts, these kinds of statements actually can reaffirm that it isn't Vanguard as an entire organization that is discriminating but a few bad apples in perhaps a specific department. The value of acknowledging that Vanguard is willing to correct any realized problems is significant to its brand, perhaps more valuable than any potential damages paid in individual suits. Vanguard manages a lot of money for esteemed institutions and government agencies. Those are billions in assets that could leave the door if Vanguard's brand is damaged and it is perceived as a racist, sexist institution. University money in particular and 529 plans could be vulnerable where student bodies are known to be activist and demand divestment from racist/sexist organizations. This way Vanguard can fire the ones perpetrating the discrimination if they lose the suits and blame those individuals and the specific department. Either way, it is valuable to be seen as proactive from a branding standpoint with these highly sensitive issues.

Re: msf said: "...don't fire the lawyer for being lawyerly"
Unless, of course, the Vanguard lawyer turns out to be older than 50 or so.... (and the behavior described by the plaintiffs is effectively 'confirmed' - if that is the word - by the court.)

To each his/her own. My expectations for this fund were much higher. For this fund to lose nearly 5% in one year is totally unacceptable to me. There are better options with a lower ER.

David and our colleague Sam Lee are admirers of Leuthold.
All its funds have beaten peers since inception on absolute return ... below are its four long funds:

Short Answer: Slowly
Pie charts are a lot of fun. Used to play around slicing and dicing in the early years. Good way to visualize your allocation and determine what makes sense to you.
Past 10 years (excluding '08-'09) my only significant changes have been to gravitate slowly to a more hands-off approach. 15 years ago that was maybe 50% When the '08 debacle began it was around 60% (but I violated those guidelines in early '09 by loading up on global stock funds out of desperation.) Today I'm 80% hands off. The primary value (assuming there is any) is that it prevents me from tinkering around much and, hence, protects me from my own stupidity.
Not recommending any of this. Not an expert. Last couple years I've looked more like an idiot.
$29 oil? Who would've thunk?

LCORX risk and return numbers through 2015 ...

Hi Catch,
About 75% of my portfolio is in taxable accounts because I inherited a rather good sum of money. I do max out my Roth IRA and contribute to a 401K as well. But they will have a less substantial effect on my overall portfolio than my taxable accounts.