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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Larry Swedroe: Active Impacts Returns & Volatility
    Hi Guys,
    The data suggests that time in the markets is probably the biggest factor to end of period wealth. Increase the time period and the likelihood of a positive outcome increases from a 50/50 probability to a near 100% probability. Please see this reference for the data:
    https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2015/11/playing-the-probabilities/
    Of course this is only an historical data set. Things might change in the future; count on that happening. But no one knows the future, so these data are a meaningful point of departure when making investment decisions. Good luck to all.
    Best Wishes
  • Mark Hulbert: The Top-Performing Asset Class You’re Probably Overlooking: (IGOV) - (VWOB)
    FYI: Would you be interested in an asset class that has done almost as well as equities over the long term while nevertheless incurring a lot less risk?
    Of course you would.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-top-performing-asset-class-youre-probably-overlooking-51556701200
  • Larry Swedroe: Active Impacts Returns & Volatility
    FYI: A vast body of research provides powerful evidence of the failure of active management to generate persistent alpha (risk-adjusted outperformance).
    For example, since 2002, S&P Dow Jones Indices has published its S&P Indices Versus Active (SPIVA) Scorecard, which compares the performance of actively managed equity mutual funds to their appropriate index benchmarks.
    The evidence contained in its scorecards supports Charles Ellis’ observation that, while it’s possible to win the game of active management, the odds of doing so are so poor that it’s not prudent to try—which is why he called it “the loser’s game.”
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-active-impacts-returns-volatility?nopaging=1
  • Best Vanguard Funds for Your Retirement Portfolio
    A very nice run for the last 10 years ! What will the next 10 years bring for these funds ?
    A look see how they performed in 4/th Qter 2018 would have added to the article.
    Derf
  • Best Vanguard Funds for Your Retirement Portfolio
    https://news.yahoo.com/7-best-vanguard-funds-retirement-portfolio-173144548.html
    7 Best Vanguard Funds for Your Retirement Portfolio
    Ellen Chang
    Ellen Chang
    U.S.News & World ReportApril 30, 2019, 12:31 PM CDT
    High-performing Vanguard funds for your 401(k).
    Vanguard revolutionized the investing industry with index mutual funds. The company's founder and former CEO, John Bogle, was an avid fan of low expense ratios and passive investing, believing that it democratized investing for individuals, since the majority of active investment managers fail to beat market averages like the S&P 500. Passive investing along with the perception that it yields better returns is gaining in popularity among consumers, says Grant Easterbrook, co-founder of New York-based Dream Forward, which sells 401(k) plans. "Consumers looking for low-cost retirement options ask for Vanguard funds from financial advisors or buy them directly," he says. Here are seven top Vanguard funds for retirement portfolios.
  • US. fund fees at record lows
    https://www.investmentexecutive.com/news/products/u-s-fund-fees-at-record-lows/
    US. fund fees at record lows
    Fees fell by 6% from 2017 to 2018
    By: IE Staff, Associated PressApril 30, 2019 14:33
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    computing strips of calculator
    In the U.S., the stock market keeps rising and fees keep falling — in part, because advisors have moved to fee-based.
    U.S. investors paid less to own funds last year than ever before: about $48 in expenses for every $10,000 invested, according to a study by Morningstar. It found that the asset-weighted average expense ratio of U.S. open-end mutual funds and ETFs last year was 0.48%, down from 0.51% in 2017 — a 6% drop.
  • M*: Whatever Happened To Emerging-Markets Stock Funds?
    Also the diversification analysis from the article is not that useful. For all the swift large declines as far as I go back (back to the 1987 crash), everything goes down sharply together (no diversification advantage). However in the subsequent recovery there were big differences in different asset performance. In this case for all 2-3 year periods that include 2008, EM stocks largely outperformed USA stocks (probably largely because China hugely stimulated their economy, while the US was frozen on fiscal policy and Europe raised interest rates before eventually lowering them), and this really helped even steady my own portfolio performance. People need to look at diversification in a more modern context. For sharp quick increases and decreases all stock classes are highly correlated and will have large movements together. But for the next several years following this diversification smooths out returns and lead to less variation in recovery.
  • Warren Buffett Is About To Face Some Tough Questions About Lagging Berkshire Hathaway Stock
    This just now from The Wall Street Journal:
    Berkshire to Invest $10 Billion in Occidental Petroleum to Finance Anadarko Bid
    Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. agreed to inject $10 billion into Occidental Petroleum Corp.’s bid to acquire Anadarko Petroleum Corp. and fight off Chevron Corp.
    Last week, Houston-based Occidental offered to purchase Anadarko for $38 billion, topping the $33 billion that Chevron agreed to pay for the company. The two sides are battling over prized energy assets in the heart of the U.S. oil boom in West Texas and New Mexico.
    The backing by Berkshire gives Occidental more ammunition to fight the much-larger Chevron, and it signals that Occidental is prepared to match or exceed any Chevron counteroffer. Occidental now appears to be in a leading position to complete the acquisition, analysts said.
    Anadarko representatives were unavailable Tuesday, but the company said Monday that it was considering Occidental’s offer.

    See the WSJ article for additional information.
  • M*: U.S. Fund Fee Study
    FYI: Investors paid less to own funds in 2018 than ever before. Our study of U.S. open-end mutual funds and exchange-traded funds found the asset-weighted average expense ratio was 0.48% in 2018, down from 0.51% in 2017. We estimate that investors saved roughly $5.5 billion in fund expenses last year thanks to this 6% fee decline, which is the second-largest year-over-year decline we have recorded since we began tracking the trend in asset-weighted average fees in 2000. The asset-weighted average expense ratio has fallen every year since 2000. Investors are paying roughly half as much to own funds as they were in the year 2000, when the asset-weighted average fee stood at 0.93%; they're paying 40% less than they did a decade ago and about 26% less than they did five years ago. The asset-weighted average expense ratio of passive funds was 0.15% in 2018 (versus 0.25% a decade ago) compared with 0.67% for active funds (0.86% in 2008). This means active-fund investors are paying about 4.5 times more than passive-fund investors on each dollar, the widest disparity since 2000
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.morningstar.com/content/dam/marketing/shared/pdfs/Research/USFundFeeStudyApr2019.pdf?cid=EMQ_&utm_source=eloqua&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=&utm_content=17040
  • Warren Buffett Is About To Face Some Tough Questions About Lagging Berkshire Hathaway Stock
    It is very hard to deploy cash in a market that is grossly overvalued. It is not the age of Buffett or Munger that is the problem here. It is their knowledge of the markets that is preventing them putting money in stock with such high multiples. Berkshire investors should be patient but in this age we do not have too many prudent investors.
    +1
    Prudence would dictate ... :)
  • Bespoke: Trend Analyzer - 4/29/19 - Small Caps Looking Solid
    FYI: As the S&P 500 finished last week at another all-time high, overbought and oversold conditions are largely unchanged from where they have been recently. Twelve of the fourteen major index ETFs are overbought while the remaining two are neutral. While off of extreme overbought levels that a few of the indices briefly touched last week, many of those that are overbought still remain just under extreme levels. With huge losses from certain weak earnings last week weighing heavy on the Dow (DIA), it was the only index to finish last week in the red and less overbought—though it is in fact still overbought.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/trend-analyzer-4-29-19-small-caps-looking-solid
  • It’s Not All Good News for This Record-Setting Market
    There is nothing more positive than skepticism amid rising prices. I would be more worried if this market was more embraced and investors were much more enthusiastic. I can’t predict any better than anyone else. But the momentum coming off the December lows was among the fourth greatest of the past 60 years. August 1982 and March 2009. We saw how much higher the market went over the ensuing years. Strength begets strength. The problem is the other was January 1987 and we also know what occurred 9 months later.
  • It’s Not All Good News for This Record-Setting Market
    For Perspective:
    “The Dow Jones Industrial Average's highest closing record is 26,828.39, set on October 3, 2018. It followed a record set the previous day.” https://www.thebalance.com/dow-jones-closing-history-top-highs-and-lows-since-1929-3306174. On Friday the DJI closed 26,542. That put it 287 points below where it was roughly 6 months earlier. Call it an uptick if you like. For anyone with longer than a 6 months time horizon, the market, as measured by the DJI, is still in recovery mode following the late 2018 selloff.
    Massive downward spirals in markets are exceedingly rare. I’m aware of only 2 in this country during the past 90 years that reached or exceeded the 50% range (‘29-‘32 and ‘07-‘09). In addition, Japan’s Nikkei may be worth a look. In 1989 that index, in a developed market with an economy second only to the U.S. at the time, peaked at 38,916. 30 years later it rests at 22,259.
    No intent by me to shape anyone’s views one way or another. My recent shift to a static allocation model with only occasional rebalancing has distanced me from the daily / seasonal market gyrations. It’s more boring, potentially less profitable, but also reduces the danger of shooting myself in the foot.
  • It’s Not All Good News for This Record-Setting Market
    hi sir @Old_Skeet ...corrections: it's her 401K in fidelity [largest equity holding is fidelity contrafund]. She has large portions of cash in boa /chase that was not account for, she also has 2 houses being rented house, my brother help manage her other assess and I dont really know the exact amount. she may indeed has large amount of cash that is not accounted for { ~?! maybe 15 or 20% cash if account all together}
  • It’s Not All Good News for This Record-Setting Market
    Lots pundits stating no doubt another large recession likely occur 6 to 36 months... We don't really know exactly when
    So if you are doing well/near retirement and thinking time to bail out, extremely happy w previous 10+years profit then maybe best time to get out..
    I reduced mother portfolio to 30%equities and 70% bonds fixed-income recently
  • Why Being "Rational" Usually Fails When Making Investment Decisions By Tom Madell.
    http://funds-newsletter.com/may19-newsletter/may19.htm
    Why Being "Rational" Usually Fails When Making Investment Decisions
    By Tom Madell
    Without wanting to sound presumptuous, this may be the most unusual investment article you are likely to ever read. Why? Because it likely goes against everything about investing you may have ever have considered.
    The article consists of two related parts. The first part deals with deciding whether or not to invest at all. The second part tries to shed some light on making more specific buy/sell decisions. In both cases, I argue that using apparently reasonable and logical information to help make investment decisions may not turn out favorably. Feel free to skip the first part if you are already committed to a long-term program of investing.
  • Russian stocks have rallied 15% in 2019, where are the headed from here?

    https://etfdailynews.com/2019/04/26/russian-stocks-have-rallied-15-in-2019-where-are-the-headed-from-here/
    Russian stocks have rallied 15% in 2019, where are the headed from here?
    Share This Article
    April 26, 2019 1:37pm NYSE:RSX
    russia flag
    From Craig Mellow: A lot of things are suddenly going Russia’s way, the most important of them emanating from Washington. The Mueller Report, despite voluminous detail on Moscow’s election interference, broke no news on that score that could combat the prevailing “sanctions fatigue.” The Trump administration’s reinvigorated campaign to block Iranian export is putting one more prop under a surging oil market. In Ukraine, the more-or-less peace candidate, erstwhile comedian Volodymyr Zelensky, won the presidential election.
    Anyone buying rsx?!
  • It’s Not All Good News for This Record-Setting Market
    @Derf
    Agree, with @hank
    There has been an uptick relative to the large whack of Dec. 2018, and those doing dollar cost averaging via 401k, etc. should do okay going forward.
    However, I do review/watch what is shown in the below chart.
    The chart starts at about the first trading day of 2018; and I use SPY and ITOT to generally look at U.S. large cap, although ITOT has some mid/sm. cap. The NYSE reference is more broad based U.S. cap sizes. The IXUS is global and doesn't include U.S.
    NOTES: ITOT is about 80% large cap and contains about 3,300 holdings. IXUS is about evenly split between Asia and Europe regions representing 88% of the 3,200 holdings.
    >>>Indeed, there remain some decent sectors returns, as well as those drifting about.
    Much of the "up" bump in some etf's and active funds can thank the broad tech. sector and whatever the percentage inclusion may be in a given fund for some of the gain.
    Many bond styles remain fairly strong at this time, as well. The 1 year Treasury currently has a higher yield than the 30 year.
    IMHO, a lot of varying opinions must be in place to find the equity and bond worlds in their current state.
    Chart
  • It’s Not All Good News for This Record-Setting Market
    Anyone using this up tick as a reason to take some profit ?

    Interesting question. But why are you calling today’s market conditions an
    “uptick” ? U.S. equity markets today have barely clawed their way back to where they were 6-12 months ago. “Rebound” or “recovery” might better describe today’s market. @Derf, I share your apprehension. While I don’t have access to the Barrons story, I suspect it’s bearish in sentiment. Problem is: These warnings are becoming like a “broken record”. (For those too young to remember vinyl, “broken record” was a phenomenon characterized by the unstoppable repetition of a few notes or words - over and over again.)
    Read virtually any respectable financial publication from Barrons to the MFO Monthly Commentaries over the past 8-10 years and you’ll find warnings about overvaluation, lofty levels, dangerous markets, overbought markets, over exuberance, etc.. Yet, had you heeded those warnings 3, 5 or 8 years ago and moved to ultra-safe investments like cash and limited duration bonds you’d likely have been left standing in the dust along the road as markets marched higher.
    Does this make me optimistic going forward? No - not in the least. But something isn’t adding up when you compare the decade old flood of warnings about valuations alongside actual U.S. stock market performance over the same period. One possibility (but only a possibility) for those fixated on indexes is that the 10-year steady march higher since 2009 will eventually be erased by a sudden, rapid, downward spiral in valuations. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen. Should it occur, however, it might make the roughly 18 months slide from late ‘07 to early ‘09 look like a Sunday picnic.*
    I don’t get paid to give investment advice here, so offer none. :) I share your concerns and I’ve done what I can to lower overall risk in how my retirement monies are invested - appropriate to age and a 10-20 year time horizon. But there are no guarantees. And, whatever plan / course one decides on, it needs to be tailored to age and circumstances. @Derf, I realize this does nothing to satisfy your concerns. But thanks for the question anyway.
    *From its peak in 2007 to its low in 2009, The S&P 500 Index fell roughly 50%.
    https://www.frbatlanta.org/cenfis/publications/notesfromthevault/0909
    Absolutely super post Hank. One that younger investors should save as a reference.