FYI: Investors paid less to own funds in 2018 than ever before. Our study of U.S. open-end mutual funds and exchange-traded funds found the asset-weighted average expense ratio was 0.48% in 2018, down from 0.51% in 2017. We estimate that investors saved roughly $5.5 billion in fund expenses last year thanks to this 6% fee decline, which is the second-largest year-over-year decline we have recorded since we began tracking the trend in asset-weighted average fees in 2000. The asset-weighted average expense ratio has fallen every year since 2000. Investors are paying roughly half as much to own funds as they were in the year 2000, when the asset-weighted average fee stood at 0.93%; they're paying 40% less than they did a decade ago and about 26% less than they did five years ago. The asset-weighted average expense ratio of passive funds was 0.15% in 2018 (versus 0.25% a decade ago) compared with 0.67% for active funds (0.86% in 2008). This means active-fund investors are paying about 4.5 times more than passive-fund investors on each dollar, the widest disparity since 2000
Regards,
Ted
https://www.morningstar.com/content/dam/marketing/shared/pdfs/Research/USFundFeeStudyApr2019.pdf?cid=EMQ_&utm_source=eloqua&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=&utm_content=17040

It is very hard to deploy cash in a market that is grossly overvalued. It is not the age of Buffett or Munger that is the problem here. It is their knowledge of the markets that is preventing them putting money in stock with such high multiples. Berkshire investors should be patient but in this age we do not have too many prudent investors.

+1
Prudence would dictate ... :)

FYI: As the S&P 500 finished last week at another all-time high, overbought and oversold conditions are largely unchanged from where they have been recently. Twelve of the fourteen major index ETFs are overbought while the remaining two are neutral. While off of extreme overbought levels that a few of the indices briefly touched last week, many of those that are overbought still remain just under extreme levels. With huge losses from certain weak earnings last week weighing heavy on the Dow (DIA), it was the only index to finish last week in the red and less overbought—though it is in fact still overbought.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/trend-analyzer-4-29-19-small-caps-looking-solid

There is nothing more positive than skepticism amid rising prices. I would be more worried if this market was more embraced and investors were much more enthusiastic. I can’t predict any better than anyone else. But the momentum coming off the December lows was among the fourth greatest of the past 60 years. August 1982 and March 2009. We saw how much higher the market went over the ensuing years. Strength begets strength. The problem is the other was January 1987 and we also know what occurred 9 months later.

For Perspective:
“The Dow Jones Industrial Average's highest closing record is 26,828.39, set on October 3, 2018. It followed a record set the previous day.” https://www.thebalance.com/dow-jones-closing-history-top-highs-and-lows-since-1929-3306174. On Friday the DJI closed 26,542. That put it 287 points below where it was roughly 6 months earlier. Call it an uptick if you like. For anyone with longer than a 6 months time horizon, the market, as measured by the DJI, is still in recovery mode following the late 2018 selloff.
Massive downward spirals in markets are exceedingly rare. I’m aware of only 2 in this country during the past 90 years that reached or exceeded the 50% range (‘29-‘32 and ‘07-‘09). In addition, Japan’s Nikkei may be worth a look. In 1989 that index, in a developed market with an economy second only to the U.S. at the time, peaked at 38,916. 30 years later it rests at 22,259.
No intent by me to shape anyone’s views one way or another. My recent shift to a static allocation model with only occasional rebalancing has distanced me from the daily / seasonal market gyrations. It’s more boring, potentially less profitable, but also reduces the danger of shooting myself in the foot.

hi sir @Old_Skeet ...corrections: it's her 401K in fidelity [largest equity holding is fidelity contrafund]. She has large portions of cash in boa /chase that was not account for, she also has 2 houses being rented house, my brother help manage her other assess and I dont really know the exact amount. she may indeed has large amount of cash that is not accounted for { ~?! maybe 15 or 20% cash if account all together}

Lots pundits stating no doubt another large recession likely occur 6 to 36 months... We don't really know exactly when
So if you are doing well/near retirement and thinking time to bail out, extremely happy w previous 10+years profit then maybe best time to get out..
I reduced mother portfolio to 30%equities and 70% bonds fixed-income recently

http://funds-newsletter.com/may19-newsletter/may19.htm
Why Being "Rational" Usually Fails When Making Investment Decisions
By Tom Madell
Without wanting to sound presumptuous, this may be the most unusual investment article you are likely to ever read. Why? Because it likely goes against everything about investing you may have ever have considered.
The article consists of two related parts. The first part deals with deciding whether or not to invest at all. The second part tries to shed some light on making more specific buy/sell decisions. In both cases, I argue that using apparently reasonable and logical information to help make investment decisions may not turn out favorably. Feel free to skip the first part if you are already committed to a long-term program of investing.

https://etfdailynews.com/2019/04/26/russian-stocks-have-rallied-15-in-2019-where-are-the-headed-from-here/
Russian stocks have rallied 15% in 2019, where are the headed from here?
Share This Article
April 26, 2019 1:37pm NYSE:RSX
russia flag
From Craig Mellow: A lot of things are suddenly going Russia’s way, the most important of them emanating from Washington. The Mueller Report, despite voluminous detail on Moscow’s election interference, broke no news on that score that could combat the prevailing “sanctions fatigue.” The Trump administration’s reinvigorated campaign to block Iranian export is putting one more prop under a surging oil market. In Ukraine, the more-or-less peace candidate, erstwhile comedian Volodymyr Zelensky, won the presidential election.
Anyone buying rsx?!

@Derf
Agree, with @hank
There has been an uptick relative to the large whack of Dec. 2018, and those doing dollar cost averaging via 401k, etc. should do okay going forward.
However, I do review/watch what is shown in the below chart.
The chart starts at about the first trading day of 2018; and I use SPY and ITOT to generally look at U.S. large cap, although ITOT has some mid/sm. cap. The NYSE reference is more broad based U.S. cap sizes. The IXUS is global and doesn't include U.S.
NOTES: ITOT is about 80% large cap and contains about 3,300 holdings. IXUS is about evenly split between Asia and Europe regions representing 88% of the 3,200 holdings.
>>>Indeed, there remain some decent sectors returns, as well as those drifting about.
Much of the "up" bump in some etf's and active funds can thank the broad tech. sector and whatever the percentage inclusion may be in a given fund for some of the gain.
Many bond styles remain fairly strong at this time, as well. The 1 year Treasury currently has a higher yield than the 30 year.
IMHO, a lot of varying opinions must be in place to find the equity and bond worlds in their current state.
Chart

Anyone using this up tick as a reason to take some profit ?

Interesting question. But why are you calling today’s market conditions an

“uptick” ? U.S. equity markets today have barely clawed their way back to where they were 6-12 months ago. “Rebound” or “recovery” might better describe today’s market. @Derf, I share your apprehension. While I don’t have access to the Barrons story, I suspect it’s bearish in sentiment. Problem is: These warnings are becoming like a “broken record”. (For those too young to remember vinyl, “broken record” was a phenomenon characterized by the unstoppable repetition of a few notes or words - over and over again.)
Read virtually any respectable financial publication from Barrons to the MFO Monthly Commentaries over the past 8-10 years and you’ll find warnings about overvaluation, lofty levels, dangerous markets, overbought markets, over exuberance, etc.. Yet, had you heeded those warnings 3, 5 or 8 years ago and moved to ultra-safe investments like cash and limited duration bonds you’d likely have been left standing in the dust along the road as markets marched higher.
Does this make me optimistic going forward? No - not in the least. But something isn’t adding up when you compare the decade old flood of warnings about valuations alongside actual U.S. stock market performance over the same period. One possibility (but only a possibility) for those fixated on indexes is that the 10-year steady march higher since 2009 will eventually be erased by a sudden, rapid, downward spiral in valuations. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen. Should it occur, however, it might make the roughly 18 months slide from late ‘07 to early ‘09 look like a Sunday picnic.*
I don’t get paid to give investment advice here, so offer none. :) I share your concerns and I’ve done what I can to lower overall risk in how my retirement monies are invested - appropriate to age and a 10-20 year time horizon. But there are no guarantees. And, whatever plan / course one decides on, it needs to be tailored to age and circumstances. @Derf, I realize this does nothing to satisfy your concerns. But thanks for the question anyway.
*From its peak in 2007 to its low in 2009, The S&P 500 Index fell roughly 50%.
https://www.frbatlanta.org/cenfis/publications/notesfromthevault/0909

Absolutely super post Hank. One that younger investors should save as a reference.

Anyone using this up tick as a reason to take some profit ?

Interesting question. But why are you calling today’s market conditions an “uptick” ? U.S. equity markets today have barely clawed their way back to where they were 6-12 months ago. “Rebound” or “recovery” might better describe today’s market. @Derf, I share your apprehension. While I don’t have access to the Barrons story, I suspect it’s bearish in sentiment. Problem is: These warnings are becoming like a “broken record”. (For those too young to remember vinyl, “broken record” was a phenomenon characterized by the unstoppable repetition of a few notes or words - over and over again.)
Read virtually any respectable financial publication from Barrons to the MFO Monthly Commentaries over the past 8-10 years and you’ll find warnings about overvaluation, lofty levels, dangerous markets, overbought markets, over exuberance, etc.. Yet, had you heeded those warnings 3, 5 or 8 years ago and moved to ultra-safe investments like cash and limited duration bonds you’d likely have been left standing in the dust along the road as markets marched higher.
Does this make me optimistic going forward? No - not in the least. But something isn’t adding up when you compare the decade old flood of warnings about valuations alongside actual U.S. stock market performance over the same period. One possibility (but only a possibility) for those fixated on indexes is that the 10-year steady march higher since 2009 will eventually be erased by a sudden, rapid, downward spiral in valuations. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen. Should it occur, however, it might make the roughly 18 months slide from late ‘07 to early ‘09 look like a Sunday picnic.*
I don’t get paid to give investment advice here, so offer none. :) I share your concerns and I’ve done what I can to lower overall risk in how my retirement monies are invested - appropriate to age and a 10-20 year time horizon. But there are no guarantees. And, whatever plan / course one decides on, it needs to be tailored to age and circumstances. @Derf, I realize this does nothing to satisfy your concerns. But thanks for the question anyway.
*From its peak in 2007 to its low in 2009, The S&P 500 Index fell roughly 50%.
https://www.frbatlanta.org/cenfis/publications/notesfromthevault/0909

Thanks Lewis:
Regards,
Ted
GAM: 2/1/27
CET: 10/1/29
TY: 1/14/29
ADX: 0/11/29
PEO: 1/30/29

I just checked how Merrill handles mutual fund tax lots. Its inability to handle fractional shares results in its doing backward somersaults to get the numbers to add up right. Fictitious lots are thrown in with phony prices. A single fund purchase of mine is shown as three different buys on the same date, all with different prices!
These cascading "rounding errors" result not in a difference of a penny here and there, but tens of dollars in costs for various lots. One cannot inform Merrill of cost basis errors online, one must submit a paper form.
Nor is it possible to specify online which fund shares to sell. (You can do this at Merrill with stocks/ETFs.) Even at Vanguard (the brokerage everyone loves to hate) one can sell specific mutual fund shares online. Of course, Vanguard understands mutual funds.
And that paper form dated 2019? It highlights (italicizes) the following incorrect information:
NOTE: The information contained in the Capital Gain and Loss section of your annual tax statement is provided by Merrill Lynch as a value-added service and is not furnished to the IRS. The IRS has several approved methods for calculating cost basis. The calculation method you choose will affect the amount of the taxable gain or loss reported for the year. You are being required to specify the method you have elected to use on your tax return. Once a method is selected, that method must be used for all shares held in the security. To change the method, the approval of the IRS is required.
The parts I underlined are wrong with respect to covered shares.

FYI: As an investor, it’s easy to blow it. You could sell too early, buy too late. Bet on a loser or pass over a winner. But often the most damaging mistake has nothing to do with the selection or timing of investments—it is carelessness when it comes to managing a portfolio for taxes. This is particularly important when you’re planning how you’ll take withdrawals for retirement income.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/have-multiple-retirement-accounts-use-them-in-this-order-51553425225?mod=barrons-on-marketwatch

FYI: Even the happiest married couples sometimes fight over money. When two people share a life and a financial future, it’s only to be expected—especially when you each come into the relationship with different levels of financial literacy, risk tolerance, earning power, assumptions, and expectations. Part of the problem is that spending and saving are often deeply emotional, reflecting our values, goals, and unspoken assumptions.
In my experience working with hundreds of couples, I’ve shared the following tips to help people get on the same page as the person they love:
Regards,
Ted
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/how-to-stop-fighting-with-your-spouse-about-money-51556370000?mod=barrons-on-marketwatch

There are also old closed-end funds, which really are mutual funds precursors:
generalamericaninvestors.com/
GAM
CET
TY
ADX
PEO
All were founded prior to 1930.

CENSX and the work of Allan Fulkerson made for an interesting story for someone invested heavily with them for 20y or so starting early 1980s, as I was.
There are some history and background here:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/containers/fix044/1093439/0000891804-08-002063.txt
Reading about them on M* and elsewhere was an object lesson in niche research and stock selection; even with the usual broad charter they invariably focused on financials, some energy, iirc, but above all on insurance and reinsurers.

@MFO Members: And don't forget Voya, Lexingtion, Corporate Fund LEXCX
with an equal number of common stock shares of leading U.S. companies at the time; currently invested in a total of 22 leading U.S. corporations.
New stocks can’t be purchased, so holdings have changed only due to spin-offs or mergers since fund inception 11/18/35, and is ranked #11 in the LCV category by U.S. News & World Report.
Also, contrary to popular belief, the first index fund was not created by John Bogle. The Qualidex Fund was lanuched in 1972. It was based on the DJIA, and in 1979 was acquired by John Galbraith and renamed the American Industry Shares. In 1984 it became part of Templeton Funds, but because of John Templeton's aversion to the index concept the fund was liquidated. Bogle started his Vanguard Fund based on the S&P 500 Index on 8/31/76 !
Regards,
Ted

@msf, Thanks for the clarification. I was doing some comparisons of longer term returns on various funds I own when that 1931 inception date jumped out at me. Tossed-up a hastily unearthed Investopedia link which you correctly took to task.
I knew there were some mutual funds around at the time of the Great Depression, but didn’t realize any would still be around or be recognizable today. (I’ll see if I can come up with a copy of the 1931 Prospectus for DODBX - assuming they even existed in 1931.) Per Lipper DODBX has returned +9.50% annually since inception June 26, 1931.)
Nice words about the firm from Ed in the April 1 Commentary. Definitely not for everyone. 2008 was a real eye-opener for at least some of their funds. Certainly low profile, considering their sizable foot print in the investing community. I wouldn’t be able to name a single manager there. Can’t recall ever reading / viewing an ad for any of their funds. Can’t even remember the last time one of their reps appeared on CNBC or Bloomberg.