I think there is a real danger right now in reviewing managers by their 10-year returns as the second worst bear market in U.S. history ended in March 2009 and the ten year-returns now exclude that bear market and we instead have returns for a great bull market. What you will end up with is likely some aggressive growth managers who out-beta'd the benchmark to beat it in the last ten years with large concentrations in tech stocks. A 15-year record would be better, but then much fewer managers have that tenure at one fund and may not be around much longer if they retire soon. What I might suggest actually is looking at a 3-year one instead as 2018 was the first bad year we had in a long time. Or simply see in the bad periods 4th quarter of 2018 and I believe--please doublecheck--fourth quarter of 2015--which funds performed well then and then see if those same funds also hold up when markets are good again or are they too conservative during bull runs? Upside/downside capture, ulcer index, bear market return numbers are probably easier ways to look. But articles like this one are dangerous if one simply takes the numbers for granted.

At age 85+ with a cash sale of our home this year, I find it difficult to buy investments that pay a lot of taxable gains. So I have looked at tax managed funds and/ or municipal tax free funds. I would like to stay mostly in the tax rate of 12% . Most of our income is SS, RMD, and some qualified dividends and small amount of capital gains. Any ideas to look for would be so helpful. I thought about CD's, a ladder of bullet bond funds. I own a small variable annuity that could be added to. Thanks for your input.

Hi Guys,
There are a very few rare gem current fund managers who are special. They are special and deserve consideration if they outdistance their benchmarks. Long term performance is perhaps the most significant criteria. I provide a reference that summaries the data in that arena:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenkam/2019/02/08/investing-with-the-greatest-mutual-fund-managers-2/#775ebd1e2a71
This is good stuff, but caution must be exercised. From the referenced article: “ Out of about 7000 U.S. equity mutual funds in Morningstar's database only 199, roughly 3%, have fund managers who have beaten the S&P 500 by enough to make a difference and outperformed their category benchmark over the past 10 years. “.
Now that is really special, but unfortunately it measures a fleeting characteristic. Investment management is a tough business. Past success doesn’t always translate into future success. Change happens.
However, it just might be worth your time to visit the reference and examine “The List”. You just might improve your portfolio.
Best Regards.

You got it. Worth highlighting from the article you linked to:

You can redeem them after one year, costing you three months of interest. Or redeem them after five years and pay no penalty, or just hold them for 30 years and cash out.

Note that there is absolutely no way to redeem the savings bonds in less than a year.
I'm looking at swapping some older savings bonds for these higher yielding 0.5% fixed rate bonds before the end of the month. That will start a new clock going, but I hold these as "secondary cash", so I'm okay with that.
Or I may just continue holding the older savings bonds for awhile (as well as buying the new ones). 2.02% tax deferred, state tax exempt is not a bad deal in this low interest rate environment. And that comes with, as your article describes it, "fantastic flexibility."
Some frames of reference: current 3 month and 6 month zero T-bills up for auction are anticipated to yield slightly over 1.6%. (From Fidelity's site.) Vanguard's Treasury MMF ($50K min) has a current SEC yield of 1.85%, APR of 1.87%. That's gradually declining and is not tax-deferred.

FYI: A UNIQUE EVENT occurred earlier this month: A group who call themselves the Bogleheads held an investment conference in the Philadelphia area, near the headquarters of Vanguard Group. Since its inception in 2000, this annual gathering has brought together fans of Vanguard’s founder Jack Bogle, who died earlier this year.
Bogle was beloved by his fans for his authenticity and iconoclastic views. He was so self-assured, in fact, that—after he retired from Vanguard—he didn’t hesitate to share his opinions, even when he was in the minority and even when he disagreed with Vanguard’s official position.
Among the points on which Bogle disagreed with Vanguard was the question of international diversification. For decades, until the end of his life, Bogle was consistent in his view that investors need not—and probably should not—diversify their portfolios outside the U.S. Bogle said that his own portfolio was 100% domestic and he recommended that others do the same.
Regards,
Ted
https://humbledollar.com/2019/10/staying-home/

Thanks for clarifying, msf. It's all a bit quirky with I Bonds, the fixed and variable combination depending on your time of purchase. So am I right in thinking that if you buy a bond before Oct 31 you will lock in the 0.5% fixed rate but not start to earn the new variable rate of 2.00% until April 1? If so, I apologize for the inaccuracies in my post above. That's still a very sound guaranteed 12 month rate of 2.2% which compares favorably to ultrashort or short investment grade bond funds, where there is always a risk to your principal, no matter how small.
Edit: David Enna (aka Tipswatch) writes very eloquently on US Treasury products. Here is his latest piece on I Bonds:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4296250-bond-investors-act-now-delay

@Vegomatic
https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-21/behind-ken-fisher-s-ads-a-hardball-culture-reels-in-billions

Hi Catch,
Yeah, I also like healthcare as you do.....not as much now as a few years ago. Also own FSPHX and FSMEX. I think you do also. Have added to GIBLX and PTIAX with the 10 year at 1.80. Also have added to FSENX on Friday. Have made 6.3% on the first investment on 10/2. Too bad it was so small. Other things I'm looking at: YAFFX, TWEIX, THOPX, and TRBUX. I think we go higher from here. My biggest regret is that I did not add to VWINX when I had a chance at the end of last year. One last question: is a municipal fund worthwhile in an IRA? Have been thinking about EALBX.
God bless
the Pudd

I Bonds, paying 2.5% from next month. You are guaranteed to earn 0.5% above the rate of inflation if you buy before Oct 31.

If you buy before Oct. 31, the bonds you receive will pay 1.90% through March of 2020. That's the way Series I savings bonds work. You get the current inflation adjustment (1.4%) for the first six months you own the savings bonds regardless of which month you purchase them in, then the you get the next inflation adjustment (2.0%) for six months, and so on.

The 1.90% composite rate for I bonds bought from May 2019 through October 2019 applies for the first six months after the issue date.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/news/pressroom/currentibondratespr.htm
The argument for buying now:

The current I Bond fixed rate is 0.5%. That is the highest it has been since early 2009 when it was 0.70%. In this falling interest rate environment with low Treasury yields, I think it’s likely that the I Bond fixed rate will fall. For five of the last ten years, the fixed rate has been zero.
If you buy I Bonds for the long-term, the fixed rate is the most important consideration, and it may be at a peak. We won’t know the next I Bond fixed rate until November 1st when the Treasury announces the changes.

https://www.depositaccounts.com/blog/inflation-treasury-series-i-savings-bonds/
Whether you buy now or buy in November, it's unlikely that the savings bonds will pay 2.5% next month. (I've no complaints with 1.9%, tax deferred, state tax exempt.)

Hi Ted,
Thanks for the nice rules summary. However, it’s not the rules themselves that generated the superior performance, but as you also identified, it is his patience and discipline. Buffett simply stays the course. His long term persistence pays off big time. Those are the necessary key elements in a winner’s strategy.
Before reading your submittal, I was only familiar with an even simpler 2 rule famous summary of Buffett’s investment rules. He is often quoted as saying “ "Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1.". Now that’s solid advice, but a bit difficult to put into practice.
Luck is more important then any and all rule books.
I really like this famous quote from a Bob Brown: “ Behind every successful man there's a lot of unsuccessful years,”. Indeed, persistence is a needed quality.
Best Wishes

FYI: Warren Buffett may be worth tens of billions, but he still lives simply, and his strategies for investing and amassing wealth aren't too complicated either.
But if it's so easy, you ask, why aren't more people as freaking rich as Buffett is? Because his approach takes the kind of discipline, patience and instinct that many either don't have or are unwilling to develop.
Here are 10 rules that have helped the Oracle of Omaha find and sustain
Regards,
Ted
1. It starts with good communication
2. When investing, innovate — don't follow
3. Always be willing to learn new things
4. Live frugally
5. Look forward, not to the past
6. Never invest borrowed money
7. Dividends are key to long-term growth
8. Think loooooooong term
9. Know when to fold 'em
10. Remember, anything is possible

Hi @rono
Thank you for your redo ink to shadowstats. There are those here who may not have know of the site previous, and the old timers who had forgotten.
I'm absolutely positive inflation is running more than the gov't provided CPI increase (1.6%) for 2020 for SS, etc.
As you've noted numerous times, invest in what you use as a consumer, too.....local utils, etc. A "pay yourself" investment plan, eh?
Neighbor chat indicates that their Plan F supplemental health coverage premium will increase 9.6% in 2020. Insurance is insurance for a reason and they've had a need for this over the years and are pleased they had the extra coverage. I've expressed previous, that to help offset the rising costs of healthcare to invest in the sector. A good example is FSPHX, with an inception date of 1981. The lifetime annualized return is 15.4%. There are plenty of decent healthcare investments from the broadbased to the more narrow sectors, as with an etf of IHI (medical tech./devices).
Take care,
Catch

@Paul, Trying to buy at low tide can be a bit of a challenge. For me, I like to position cost average into my spiffs, buying the dips, especially after stocks have had a strong run. If you want to look at (and study) a fund that buys the dips and sells the rips then you might wish to learn more about CTFAX and study it's fact sheet learning how it plays the swing trade.
CTFAX is one of nine positions found in my hybrid income sleeve as it generates it's distributions from both yield and capital gain distributions made from its swing trades. Due to stock market votalility I'm expecting a nice payout for 2019. So, if interested, buy it after it makes its December (yearend) distribution.

Heard it all before...countless times. All baloney.
I think the best 100% guaranteed investment right now is I Bonds, paying 2.5% from next month. You are guaranteed to earn 0.5% above the rate of inflation if you buy before Oct 31. So when the doomsters predictions of 12% inflation come true you will be able to sleep at night, knowing you are making 12.5%.
Or just ignore the noise and stay with your long term goals as I intend to do.

FYI: (This Is A Follow-Up Article.)
The latest tally shows more than $3 billion in client assets pulled from Fisher Investments since the Oct. 8 comments were initially criticized in a video posted on Twitter.
Most of those departing assets are represented by public pension plans and high-profile companies like Goldman Sachs that are showing their own PR prudence by distancing themselves from Fisher.
But Fisher Investments, as the nation's second-largest RIA behind Financial Engines Advisors, has over the past few years undertaken an aggressive retail branding campaign and could also be vulnerable on the consumer side.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=ACYBGNQfxbvLiQf4TfPJXK_NCyTHTdBEtw:1572078987192&source=hp&ei=iwW0Xf2UCcjmsAXbk404&q=Is+it+time+for+Ken+Fisher+to+step+down?&oq=Is+it+time+for+Ken+Fisher+to+step+down?&gs_l=psy-ab.3..33i299.4920.4920..6175...0.0..0.93.93.1......0....2j1..gws-wiz.D0GWZyMH8wA&ved=0ahUKEwi9htrMwrnlAhVIM6wKHdtJAwcQ4dUDCAc&uact=5

FYI: It looks like a perfect storm. There’s talk of the President’s impeachment. The rumors, alone, could hurt global markets. Experts say a recession is coming. Several economic forecasts say inflation is on the rise. It could hit 12 percent or more.
Home mortgage interest rates might soon hit double digits. Tensions in the Middle East are heating up again. The Middle East is threatening to limit the sale of oil to the west. Some forecasts say fuel shortages might be coming. That could mean day-long lines to put gas in your car. There’s even risk of Nuclear war. At least one rogue nation is stepping up aggression.
These are uncertain times. Many people wonder how to protect their investments. Others haven’t yet started to invest. They’re afraid to commit because nothing seems stable.
Regards,
Ted
https://assetbuilder.com/knowledge-center/articles/how-should-you-invest-in-these-uncertain-times

@MFO Members: The 28th Annual Baron Investment Conference:
Regards,
Ted
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20191025005479/en/5000-Baron-Funds-Shareholders-Attend-28th-Annual

I'm looking to buy DFDMX for my Roth IRA on the next reasonable dip. I'm very impresssed by its risk adjusted performance and the management's philosophy. I am amazed it's still such a tiny fund ($170m), especially following three years of outstanding performance and no outflows to speak of.
On the general topic of actively managed versus index funds, I have never owned nor ever wanted to own the latter. If the market does take a serious downturn then a manager who can navigate the headwinds is worth his weight in gold. Think Larry Puglia at TRBCX which has not had a single down year in the last ten. Investors in many index funds, however, will be at the full mercy of market forces - and they will finally pay full price for their cheap investments.

Mr. Bickmore should avoid astrophysics. He understands little. The incorrect explanation of “the twins paradox” Is one instance of his lack of understanding as @msf explained.
Re a second assertion: “Einstein theorized there was no fixed frame of reference in the universe, and everything moves relative to everything else.“
Yes, originally. But Einstein later abandoned that concept after the 1929 findings by Edwin Hubble which pointed to an expanding universe. The now widely accepted “fixed frame of reference” is the Big Bang - from which everything is moving away
Here’s how Wikipedia explains Einstein’s earlier static universe and how his belief changed as new data became available:
“Einstein's static universe, also known as the Einstein universe or the Einstein world, is a relativistic model of the universe proposed by Albert Einstein in 1917. Shortly after completing the general theory of relativity, Einstein applied his new theory of gravity to the universe as a whole. Assuming a universe that was static in time, and possessed of a uniform distribution of matter on the largest scales, Einstein was led to a finite, static universe of spherical spatial curvature.“
“Following the discovery by Edwin Hubble of a linear relation between the redshifts of the galaxies and their distance in 1929, Einstein abandoned his static model of the universe and proposed expanding models such as the Friedmann-Einstein universe and the Einstein-de Sitter universe. In both cases, he set the cosmological constant to zero, declaring it ‘no longer necessary ... and theoretically unsatisfactory.’ “
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Einstein's_static_universe

@msf +1