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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Anyone buying at these levels?
    Not equities, for me anyway, at least yet. This drop is looking like a possible test of the August low to this kid, and that's 70+ points lower on the S&P 500 from here. EEM broke below its longer term trend yesterday, too.
  • MFO 2015 Year End Ratings Posted - Category Performance Summary
    Below is a simple table summarizing performance for year, organized by SubType and Category ... showing Peer Count and Total Return Averages.
    Results are computed from our Lipper database month ending December 2015, excludes money market funds. Funds at least one year old. Oldest share class only, includes max front load, if applicable.
    I broke out the Alternatives ... will likely separate from "Other" (aka Trading categories) in future. Basically, organize by 10 SubTypes instead of the 9 currently.
    Muni's did pretty good this year, relatively. (Congrats Junkster.) Japan funds did well, as did Health and Tech. Europe and Real Estate ok. Poorest performers of course Energy and most Commodities, Latin America and EM.
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  • Chipotle Disaster
    If you can tell me how having a meal at Chipotle is significantly better than Jack-In-The-Box's Mexican restaurant Qdoba (Hint: it is not) and why it deserves a premium valuation in the fast casual restaurant space, I will then tell you when CMG will bounce and approach its October 2015 high of $757. This haircut is long overdue (apologies to Jim "Crammer").
  • Checking In
    Thanks vkt, TSP_Transfer, other for sharing on this post.
    Mine is certainly not a balanced portfolio ... heavy financials still.
    Here's year end performance for the list of struggling funds I posted above ... click images to enlarge.
    Most worse off than numbers through Nov.
    Note too that all but PRNEX had absolute returns well below their peers for the year. And, all have been retracting from previous one year maximum for at least 7 months.
    c
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  • FAIRX ... Keep or Lose It
    You know Maurice, if you'd like to stay with something out of the ordinary maybe the Bruce Fund would be worth a peek.
    Yesterday was a good day to have observed downside action of various funds. BRUFX was off .80%. Not bad for a fund classified as a Moderate Allocation fund.
    FAIRX is a concentrated LG fund so not an apples to apples swap with BRUFX. How about considering Primecap Odyssey Fund POGRX?
    M* comparison of FAIRX and POGRX:
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  • Anyone buying at these levels?
    Goldman cuts S&P 500 earnings outlook
    Jan 8 2016, 08:00 ET | By: Stephen Alpher
    Goldman's equity team cuts $3 per share from its expectation of S&P 500 E P S for 2015-2017. The new numbers are $106, $117, and $126, respectively.The revision means annual E P S growth of -7% in 2015 (the worst performance since 2008), 11% in 2015, and 8% in 2017.At issue, naturally, is energy, and that sector last year likely posted a decline in operating E P S for the first time in 48 years. Also important topics are margins that appear to have peaked, and the risk of a broader economic slowdown.On margins, it's all about tech, and in tech it's all about Apple. Goldman expects tech margins to peak this year and then begin to decline. If you can find an S&P 500 company that can raise margins, buy it.
    http://seekingalpha.com/news/3020796-goldman-cuts-s-and-p-500-earnings-outlook
    Market Commentary (posted Jan 7th 2016) from OTTER CREEK LONG/SHORT OPPORTUNITY FUND OTCRX
    As we have discussed in prior letters, we believe the overall valuation in both the equity and bond markets are not overly attractive on an absolute basis
    considering the fundamental growth outlook. S&P 500 earnings are expected to be around $125 per share in 2016 implying a price to earnings ratio of
    approximately 16x – near historical averages – however, we see potential downside risk to earnings estimates this year. The US economy continues to grow
    modestly despite a sluggish industrial and commodity environment. However, we believe that there are lingering risks surrounding China which combined with
    the potential for ongoing stress in credit markets should be a pause for concern going forward.
    As we enter January, we have approximately 18% of the Fund in cash and are looking opportunistically to deploy that capital. We expect markets to be volatile
    as the Federal Reserve attempts to gradually increase interest rates in the midst of moderate domestic growth and soft global growth trends. We look forward to
    an in-depth discussion on broader macro outlook, portfolio positioning, and new ideas during our quarterly conference call on January 20th
    http://www.ottercreekfunds.com/media/pdfs/OCL_Factsheet.pdf
  • Anyone buying at these levels?
    Hi @little5bee,
    I thinking ... we will need good corporate earnings reporting during 2016 to generate a good substainable stock market rally. If I were to decide to lighten up in equities I'd much rather sell in an up day than a down day (selling into strength).
  • Anyone buying at these levels?
    hi @willmatt72,
    I have not yet done any buying in the recent market pullback. Currently, my equity allocation is at a neutral position (50%) within a range of 45% to 55%. If I had been more prudent and lowered my allocation in equities towards its lower range, as I felt equities were overvalued, I'd have a full ten percent that I could load. Now it is a only five percent. Still this is a sizeable sum for me; and, I have decided to wait a while longer to see how this plays out. I'm thinking we will see more downside before we see a substainable upside.
    Old_Skeet
  • MFO 2015 Year End Ratings Posted
    MFO Search Tools now reflect fund risk and performance metrics through December 2015.
  • Portfolio Protection Strategy
    >> My crystal ball is not good enough to assure you there will not be a 50% drop in the "stock market".
    Mine is. There will not be.
    If I had a 3-5y horizon, I would be a lot more aggressive than 60/40. So would many others; it's not just me.
    But as for you, and as for now, sit tight and exhale.
    Don't go selling, don't go timing. Just do nothing.
    Look away and do something else besides fret. Stuff you enjoy doing.
  • Portfolio Protection Strategy
    @DavidV said (assuming no change in the 40% invested in bonds).
    As Jeff Gundlach is quoted here concerning unconstrained bond funds but also can be applied to other investments
    “The hope is that these funds will be positive through a variety of movements, or positive all the time. But those of us who are experienced know that it's impossible to do things perfectly, or even close to perfect, all the time. Just because you can be nimble doesn't mean you can always be positive.”
    “Rising interest rates lead to losses across the bond category. It's not like these funds are going to have some super-secret bond allocation in credit that goes up when everything else is falling.
    ...“Nothing works all the time,
    but unconstrained funds give this kind of false promise that they might work all the time. It's not like it's risk-free. It has to be managed almost perfectly.”
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/25221/jeffrey-gundlach-2016-outlook-investment-strategies-tue-01-12-2016-link#latest
  • Replacement for RSIVX Multi sector bond fund. in a Roth ira fund purchased about a year ago.
    Thanks to all for your comments & suggestions.I'm looking @ each fund recomendation
    The following is a copy/paste from my comments earlier today. concerning risvx.
    ---RISVX - down 4.18% -- for 2015-- including re invested div. & cap gain.
    I.m still holding while looking for a replacement, Vanguard to launch " core bond fund"
    in March 2016, so I'll hang on to risvx till then.
  • Portfolio Protection Strategy
    Hi DavidV,
    Given your 3 to 5 year time constraint, congratulations on designing a portfolio of all 60/40 Balanced mutual funds/ETFs. I assume you populated your portfolio with low cost funds to maximize keeping market rewards for yourself during your anticipated market participation period.
    Historically, an assortment of Balanced funds have generated returns that hover around 10% with a substantial reduction in portfolio volatility (like a standard deviation of perhaps 12%). I recommend you check your portfolio against historical performance using a Portfolio Visualizer tool. Here is the Link to that useful website:
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/
    Use the Backtest Portfolio option to access the historical performance of your baseline asset allocation.
    You asked about portfolio optimization. The Portfolio Visualizer toolkit includes an Efficient Frontier Optimize Portfolio option. You might want to give it a test ride. I have never used that option. The Efficient Frontier is a transitory, elusive target; if it does really exist, it changes rapidly. However, it might offer you some comfort if you explore several portfolio what-if constructions.
    You seem to have considerable fear over a market meltdown. Certainly that happens, but it might not happen as frequently as you suspect. Here is a Link to a nice summary article that reviews and categorizes various negative market return levels:
    http://thereformedbroker.com/2013/08/20/a-field-guide-to-stock-market-corrections/
    You must know the odds when participating in the marketplace. A correction of 10% is defined as nerve-wracking, but it doesn’t occur all that frequently. Check the article for the numbers. Also, historically, average recovery time from a 10% downturn is NOT that long (about one-half year).
    I made a few calculations. Assuming a Gaussian returns distribution with expected average return and standard deviation for a representative portfolio constructed of all 60/40 Balanced funds, the projected rate for a 10% decline is roughly 6%. That’s not too unsettling. These data and brief analyses should relieve your discomfort level somewhat.
    Since your time horizon is so short you might elect to deploy the generic strategy recommended for those approaching retirement. As the date approaches, you might consider converting a portion of your 60/40 mixed Balanced funds into 30/70 Balanced funds. This strategy compromises expected returns a little, but it simultaneously reduces portfolio volatility. The Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund (VWINX) is an attractive candidate for this tactic from my perspective.
    You have made some solid investment decisions, and by so doing have mostly resolved your own issues. I also believe that other MFO posters have properly addressed other mental aspects of your concerns. Have courage and stay the course.
    Best Wishes.
  • Investment opinions invited
    Hi Alex,
    Well after the last couple of days I hope you are still in your money market. :-)
    At 86 years old, you might consider putting some of it into an immediate annuity. The balance will vanish when you do but the payout starting at your current age should be pretty high. I was quoted about a 6% payout and I'm 25 years behind you.
  • Chipotle Disaster
    1924 Beacon Street, Brighton, MA. 02135. No way, baby.
  • Portfolio Protection Strategy
    @MikeM: Yes. I may need money in the next 3-5 years. I understand that it is all speculation. Nevertheless, I believe it should be some optimal strategy to achieve the goal.
    One way to do that is to wait till the portfolio drops 10% and then sell everything.
    Another way is to use buy and hold strategy: to protect against stock market drop of up to 50% with 10% risk tolerance your portfolio allocation should be about 20% in stocks.
    These are two extreme approaches and both of them not good. I hope there is something more reasonable.