Goldman cuts S&P 500 earnings outlookJan 8 2016, 08:00 ET | By: Stephen Alpher
Goldman's equity team cuts $3 per share from its expectation of S&P
500 E P S for 201
5-2017. The new numbers are $106, $117, and $126, respectively.The revision means annual E P S growth of -7% in 201
5 (the worst performance since 2008), 11% in 201
5, and 8% in 2017.At issue, naturally, is energy, and that sector last year likely posted a decline in operating E P S for the first time in 48 years. Also important topics are margins that appear to have peaked, and the risk of a broader economic slowdown.On margins, it's all about tech, and in tech it's all about Apple. Goldman expects tech margins to peak this year and then begin to decline. If you can find an S&P
500 company that can raise margins, buy it.
http://seekingalpha.com/news/3020796-goldman-cuts-s-and-p-500-earnings-outlookMarket Commentary (posted Jan 7th 2016) from OTTER CREEK LONG/SHORT OPPORTUNITY FUND OTCRX
As we have discussed in prior letters, we believe the overall valuation in both the equity and bond markets are not overly attractive on an absolute basis
considering the fundamental growth outlook. S&P
500 earnings are expected to be around $12
5 per share in 2016 implying a price to earnings ratio of
approximately 16x – near historical averages – however, we see potential downside risk to earnings estimates this year. The US economy continues to grow
modestly despite a sluggish industrial and commodity environment. However, we believe that there are lingering risks surrounding China which combined with
the potential for ongoing stress in credit markets should be a pause for concern going forward.
As we enter January, we have approximately 18% of the Fund in cash and are looking opportunistically to deploy that capital. We expect markets to be volatile
as the Federal Reserve attempts to gradually increase interest rates in the midst of moderate domestic growth and soft global growth trends. We look forward to
an in-depth discussion on broader macro outlook, portfolio positioning, and new ideas during our quarterly conference call on January 20th
http://www.ottercreekfunds.com/media/pdfs/OCL_Factsheet.pdf