Old Skeet''s Market Barometer Report & Thinking for April 2019 ... April 26th Update Here is an update for Old_Skeet's market barometer (which follows the S&P 500 Index) for the week ending April 18, 2019 along with my thinking. It was a short week, in the markets, due to Good Friday Holiday along with 1Q19 earning season has now begun.
Old_Skeet being a retail investor provides this information for information purposes only. It simply reflects what I am seeing in the markets, my thinking, along with what has worked best within the Index and within my portfolio for the past week. My thinking, my positioning, or my comments, should not to be taken as investment advice.
For the week Old_Skeet's market barometer closed with an overbought reading of 138 which is up from last week's extremely overbought reading of 128. Generally, a higher barometer reading indicates that there is more investment value in the Index over a lower reading. Short interest in the Index remained at 1.8 days to cover. The yield on the US10YrT moved from 2.57% to 2.56% while the yield for the Index (SPY) remained at 1.85%. The 500 Index moved downward from 2907 to 2905 for a slight loss. Trading volumes are below their averages as investors ponder stocks. There will be close to 100 companies reporting earnings this coming week, within the Index, so it will be interesting to see how the coming week progresses. The three best performing sectors, for this past week, were Industrials +1.59%, Technology +1.44% and Consumer Staples +0.96%. For Old_Skeet, I'm not presently putting new money to work in either my stock or bond funds while I await a higher barometer reading indicating a better investing climate for stocks; and, I'm also awaiting better yields from bonds. Clearly, by the metrics of the barometer, stocks are overbought.
For the week my three best performing funds (all having a global perspective) were LPEFX +1.59% ... TIBAX +1.44% ... and, DEQAX +1.44%.
In addition, I'm pondering another portfolio rebalance as I had a couple of large cash draws coming from my portfolio's cash area the past week to pay Federal & State Income Taxes owed plus I made a contribution to my church's capital fund drive campaign. This has now left my portfolio's asset allocation skewed and cash light. Since, I am equity heavy I'll be trimming equities and raising cash by a like amount in the near term. My late father had a saying, back in his day, "When the yields get thin, it's time to trim." Within the past six months, or so, the yield on the US10YrT has moved from 3.23% down to 2.56% while the yield for S&P 500 Index has moved from about 2.1% down to 1.85%. I'm thinking, the yields are now thin; and, also based upon historical seasonality trends (that he also followed), it is indeed time, for me, to trim equities.
From my perspective, investing is not an exact science and relies a lot on skill centering around the art of making a call. It's the many different investment perspectives of investors that make the markets. This is why I feel it so important to be well diversified and follow modern portfolio theory. And, furthermore, investing is really quite simple. In order to get the average return of the market you have to invest at its average price. Want above average returns? Then put new money to work at below the market's average price. This is where my market barometer helps me find good value and the better times, for me, to put new money to work. This is why buying the dips have become a popular investment strategy. Thus a phrase was coined ... "Buy the Dips and Sell the Rips." Coming off the Christmas Eve and December low the Index is up about 25%. Seems, this qualifies as a "Rip." And, for me, it's time for another rebalance.
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
Even 75% Of Americans In The Best 401(k) Plans Won’t Have Enough To Retire Marketwatch often posts nonsense articles. This is one. Note how no details of the 'study' were provided.
Some obvious problems, just off the top of my head:
-Overspending. Jojo is exactly correct. Many Americans are just profligate spenders. Its like the story of the Ant and the Grasshopper. The Grasshopper played during the Summer and was left to freeze in the winter. Stupid spenders should get their comeuppance.
-The study ONLY looked at 401ks. People change jobs. Advice columns like Marketwatch usually tell people to rollover their old 401ks to an IRA. But IRAs were not (apparently) addressed in this 'study'...
-Many people on the West Coast don't save much in their 401ks. Instead, they choose to buy overpriced homes. Servicing those large mortgages serves as an alternative savings vehicle for them. So far, those homes have turned out to be a very viable alternative to 401ks. Again, the 'study' didn't look at alternative saving vehicles..
-One major problem with inadequate 401k savings, which the article -- and every article of this type is silent on -- is the aggregious divorce system in this country. Both the outrageous legal/professional/court fees incurred, but also the theft of 401ks via QDRO.
The article and 'study' are the equivalent of personal finance porn.
New MFO Search Tools Publicly Available Ha! Cool. Yes, me too. "Miraculous MultiSearch" was our very first try. I actually like the larger, more simplified look of QuickSearch and plan to bring that to the main MultiSearch tool, which is where I live. The Navigation bar on top of the page is equivalent to the Search Tools button ...
Sears Sues Lampert, Steven Mnuchin, Claiming He Looted Assets And Drove it Into Bankruptcy
Wintergreen Fund, Inc. to liquidate It is perhaps a nail in a certain kind of active management. As much as I admire the boutique money manager--something championed by this site in particular--there are definitely some risks when a manager strikes out on his/her own as Winters did. There is often this impression investors have that the manager is solely responsible for his previous charge's performance when the truth is much more complicated--see Bill Gross at Janus. In other words, big shops sometimes have significant advantages over lone gunslinger types of boutique managers, a depth of talent and technological resources that manager loses when he jumps ship to start his own firm. It is also an indicator of what's been going on in value investing today--a trend eerily reminscent of the late 1990s when a lot of top value guys retired or were fired. Finally, the concentration risk of perhaps "too much active share" can also be damaging. We always highlight the benefits of active share, but done wrong, the drawbacks are immense.
Even 75% Of Americans In The Best 401(k) Plans Won’t Have Enough To Retire "Many Americans don’t save enough for retirement because they just don’t have the money."
They don't have the money to save, however they do have enough to purchase $1,000 smartphones (and their expensive monthly data plans), spend hundreds more eating out/happy hours, etc... There are certainly families out there that truly don't make enough, but there is also a large group of people that simply make more spending decisions.
Rollover 403B to new or existing traditional IRA account?
Barry Ritholtz's Masters In Business: Guest: William Bernstein Discusses Neurology And Investment
Even 75% Of Americans In The Best 401(k) Plans Won’t Have Enough To Retire
Rollover 403B to new or existing traditional IRA account? @johnNPlease start a new post; as this thread is already too much off track.
Thank you.
I personally don't follow what you are asking about with your below statement.
different ?: how much should we cash out from IRA/40
1K/pensions plans monthly if we retire at age 62?
I agree that question needs to be rephrased by
@JohnN. Sounds more like something related to longevity issue and making savings last over a lifetime. Unfortunately, some workers do “cash out”
100% from these plans and spend the money right away or within a few years of retiring. Poor planning - but all too common.
Somewhat related to Catch’s original question - These workplace plans do not need to be rolled over into an IRA if worker prefers not to. My own personal thinking (based on something I read at the time) was that while in the
employee plan your investments are still partially controlled by the employer who administers the plan. But, once in an IRA (
“I” for individual),
control of the plan shifts completely to that of the the individual. Probably oversimplifies it - but I was more comfortable moving to an IRA and having full control.
It was simpler back than (90s). There was still a loophole in the 403B Regulations allowing participants to transfer assets to a custodian of choice. So, TRP had received most of those assets (originally with Templeton) while I was still working. They remained a 403B with TRP until I retired and elected to
rollover the assets into an IRA. Very simple. A few pages of documents which I signed off on.
Lots of things to consider, including the comments by
@msf above. Gets into questions of investment choices, fees, possible confiscation of assets by creditors under some circumstances - depending on type of plan selected.
-
Rollover 403B to new or existing traditional IRA account? @johnNPlease start a new post; as this thread is already too much off track.
Thank you.
I personally don't follow what you are asking about with your below statement.
different ?: how much should we cash out from IRA/40
1K/pensions plans monthly if we retire at age 62?
Rollover 403B to new or existing traditional IRA account? different ?: how much should we cash out from IRA/401K/pensions plans monthly if we retire at age 62?
Jonathan Clement's Blog: Unloaded: My Broker Fired Me FYI: “YOU’RE FIRED” was made famous by Donald Trump as host of The Apprentice. Imagine my surprise when my broker delivered the same message to me two years ago.
Regards,
Ted
https://humbledollar.com/2019/04/unloaded/
Wintergreen Fund, Inc. to liquidate @MFO Members: Who would have thought that David Winters, who honed his skills under Max Heine and Michael Price at Mutual Series, and once considered a rising star in the fund world, would come to an end after fourteen years at the helm of Wintergreen Fund. But the numbers tell the story of his downfall, the fund was in the
100% percentile during it's life.
Regards,
Ted
Rollover 403B to new or existing traditional IRA account? @DerfI don't know why Vanguard would have a problem allowing more than
1 beneficiary. We've set primary and secondary beneficiaries "on-line" through our accounts. I've seen primary, secondary and/or co-beneficiary listed as choices at various accounts over the years.
Beneficiaries/co-beneficiaries would be of the same legal status with a 40
1k, 403b, 457, traditional or Roth IRA
to the best of my knowledge. To the point of superseding a will for purposes of distribution at death. Beneficiary is the first trump card.
If any know of a variance with the above; please let us know.
ADD: Derf, here is the
Vanguard link explaining beneficiary designation.
Ok.......you're on your own from here tonight. Early rise next day and pillow time calls.
Rollover 403B to new or existing traditional IRA account? @hankI usually check links, but didn't tonight. An extra add remained in the link box that opens here, at MFO. Usually the header is overwritten, this time the header remained.
The link header being, http:// This messed the link coding.
Hank, I don't know what you may access at Amazon for movies, but this is a must that ties into today's legal battles. The story of the battle and decisions from the Washington Post to release the Pentagon Papers to the public. This link is a multi Google search so that one may dig around to learn a bit more.
The Post@msf What you noted, is of consequence to some folks; I would agree. And the note about ERISA. I don't know about her plan, but I know 2 retired hospital employees and their 403b was not ERISA compliant, or whatever the proper term. Thank you.
