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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Federal Reserve Gives Emergency Aid to Mutual Funds
    That's a good question. These days I haven't been paying too much attention to muni MMFs because they're paying less than online bank accounts (after tax). So it doesn't make much sense to take on their additional risk. (Aside from considerations like Medicare IRMAA where gross income is what matters.)
    It's hard to read into the government announcement.
    It could be that the wording was sloppy and the intent was to cover prime and muni MMFs. (I checked the N-MFP filing for VMSXX to verify that it is not considered a prime fund.)
    It could be that the government doesn't consider muni MMFs to be at enough risk to offer this loan option.
    It could be that the government does consider muni MMFs to be at higher risk but doesn't want to handle non-federal securities as collateral for its loans.
    FWIW, the true NAV of VMSXX over the past six months has been consistently over $1, ranging between $1.0001 and $1.0004 until the past three days where it dropped to $0.9998, $0.9995, and $0.9992 as of yesterday. Fidelity's FMOXX has generally had a higher NAV ($1.0012 to $1.0017), but it too has fallen in the last week from $1.0014 to $1.0007, likewise below its normal range.
    Perhaps it is time to start watching these figures more closely.

    msf,
    Will this support VMSXX?
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/the-federal-reserve-is-expanding-its-asset-purchases-to-include-municipal-bonds.html
    Mona
  • Coronavirus Selloff Leaves Just One U.S. Active Equity Mutual Fund Positive for the Year
    BTW "tiny" doesn't begin to describe CEGSX - it has $139k per Morningstar, has a 1.75% expense ratio, and charges a load.
  • Coronavirus Selloff Leaves Just One U.S. Active Equity Mutual Fund Positive for the Year
    But still leaves the 10-year return for HSGFX at -6.54% PER YEAR -- or a loss of 50%. In a bull market. And that's despite being up almost 12% ytd.
  • From the "We Have Your Backs" Department
    In stark contrast this is how it's supposed to be done:
    Stories of Hope
  • Coronavirus Selloff Leaves Just One U.S. Active Equity Mutual Fund Positive for the Year
    Also HSGFX. That prolly screams current market conditions. According to M* it is now .36% positive for the life of the fund as of 3/19.
  • Were There Signs The Coronavirus Stock Market Crash Was Coming?
    https://www.investors.com/how-to-invest/were-there-signs-the-coronavirus-stock-market-crash-was-coming/
    Were There Signs The Coronavirus Stock Market Crash Was Coming?
    The coronavirus stock market crash has changed a lot of outlooks this year. Just last month the Dow Jones Industrial Average looked poised to cross 30,000 for the first time. This week, it dipped below 19,000 for the first time since 2016. There were plenty of prognosticators saying a bear market loomed and that a stock market crash was coming. On the other side, just as many giving reasons why that wouldn't come to pass. Only in hindsight do the victors emerge and not always for the reasons they thought
  • Would you buy a 50 year Treasury?
    Such ideas are being discussed in the Executive Branch.
    White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow likes the idea, one of the people said. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, although initially skeptical, is now more willing to do it, the people said.
    Do they really think they're going to get people to buy a fifty year bond for 2 - 3%? They've been having problems selling the tens.
    How about 8%. I might think about buying such a thing at that yield.
    But let's imagine 5% or 6%. All of a sudden that income annuity my wife can get from TIAA looks pretty good. So we sell out all the stocks and bonds in her IRA to finance it. And I start looking around for a reputable income annuity for my IRA. And I sell all the stuff in my IRA, if it's worth anything at that point.
    There are probably rosier scenarios. Maybe someone could point one out to me.
  • Another buying opportunity
    Where were we?
    Oh yeah . . .
    I did do some shopping Wednesday when the 10 year treasury rate jumped up.
    If those rates can keep from levitating, I think we might be bouncing around a little less violently until we start seeing numbers measuring the consequences. Albeit, the jobless claims didn't seem to rattle anyone.
    I suspect that there will be time to buy on the way back up too. Whatever that looks like, and whenever it starts.
  • From the "We Have Your Backs" Department
    Howdy,
    Come on people, you know that 90% of all politicians are corrupt before they are elected and 90% that aren't become so in their first term. That leaves 1% that are worth a shit.'
    I hope and pray they ALL come down with the virus and let God sort them out.
    Oh, and before someone goes off on me I AM AN ELECTED REPUBLICAN albeit a Township Trustee.
    And so it goes,
    peace and Flatten the Curve,
    rono
  • SPY and the 21st century. One ugly chart.
    This is not an example of technical analysis:
    image
    From DShort.com, AKA Advisor Perspectives -- as the graphic clearly states. .
    I'm not sure this chart is anything more than an interesting look back in time. But if you have one of those friends who is always pestering you about buying the index . . . send him the link. But only if you have done better. ;-)
    I used to follow the old dshort.com for his interesting charts through the thick of 2008 bust. Back in 2011 he sold to an outfit called Advisor Perspectives.
    But the charts continue to paint a picture of what is happening, courtesy of Jill Mislinski. And they publish a calendar of charts to come.
    There is a variety of interesting articles and commentaries on the rest of the site if you poke around. You won't be assaulted by obvious advertising. But somebody is paying the bills. Here is their about.
  • This recession is going to be bad.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/19/this-recession-is-going-be-bad-really-bad/?outputType=amp
    This recession is going to be bad.
    America has done something extraordinary, perhaps unprecedented. In the face of a looming public health crisis, with potential deaths in the thousands or even millions, we essentially made a collective decision to have ourselves a recession. We’ve shut down a significant portion of our economy, knowing that the result will be businesses going bankrupt, huge job losses and people losing their homes.
  • the single dumbest paragraph filed with the SEC this month
    I've been working on tracking down funds in the SEC pipeline (the Hypergrowth or Falling Knives ETFs, anybody?) and came across Terra Firma US Concentrated Realty Equity. Apparently it used to be some other fund, or funds, or portfolios. Despite naming the manager they won't name who he worked for when advising ... well, you'll see:
    Performance data for the classes varies based on differences in their fee and expense structures. The performance figures for Open Class shares reflect the historical performance of the then-existing shares of the [...] (the “Predecessor Portfolio”) (the predecessor to the Fund, for which [...] served as the investment adviser), a series of [...], from September 23, 2011 to […], 2020. The performance figures for Open Class shares also reflect the historical performance of the then-existing shares of the predecessor fund to the Predecessor Portfolio, the [...] (the “Predecessor Fund”) (for which [...] served as the investment adviser), for periods prior to September 23, 2011. Jay P. Leupp has served as a portfolio manager for the Fund, the Predecessor Portfolio and the Predecessor Fund since December 31, 2008. Christopher J. Hartung has served as a portfolio manager for the Fund and the Predecessor Portfolio since 2018.
    The aforementioned "Mr. Leupp was a Senior Portfolio Manager on [...]'s Global Real Estate Securities team from 2011 to 2019. Prior to joining [...] in 2011, Mr. Leupp was the President and Chief Executive Officer (“CEO”) of Grubb & Ellis Alesco Global Advisors."
    (deep cleansing breath, deep cleaning breath, beer)
    David

    Why God made editorial TKTKs [to come]
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    Hi guys,
    The barometer as of market close Thursday maintains its reading of 180 indicating that the S&P 500 Index is extremely oversold. I am also detecting that a bottom is forming as three of the data feeds and influences that the barometer use are green lighting. Naturally, this is a process and there is still a good bit of market votatility that most likely will follow. But, things look to be improving for equities.
    Old_Skeet has been reducing cash and raising my allocation to equities. With this, I have temporairly moved to a 15% cash, 40% income and 45% equity allocation to play the anticipated equity rebound. Currently, I favor equity income over fixed income as equity income has been beaten up pretty badly, thus far, while fixed income is now starting to feel the effects of the storm. My fixed income sleeve is down, for the rolling week, by -7.8% while my domestic equity income sleeve is down -3.1% and my global equity income sleeve is down -5.5%. Thus, I'm thinking equity is the better move at the moment as it is showing some rebound life.
    With this, I continue to shop the equity income isles for bargins as the short volume for the Index has been in decline for the past three days. In addition, I am also nibbling in the growth area of my portfolio.
    Take care ... and, I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • The Rise of Green Bonds
    https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/is/en/thinking/articles/2020/q1/rise-green-bonds.html
    /the Rise of Green Bonds
    Why investors should take a closer look at the green bond market.
    Key Insights
    Growth of the green bond market expected to continue in 2020, led by sovereigns.
    Germany’s willingness to issue green bonds is likely to act as a reference point for other issuers.
    There is an opportunity to start integrating green bonds into fixed income portfolios./
    Trow price Dynamic Global Bond and Global Aggregate Bond
    Anyone use these vehicles?
  • Energy -Oil jumps 13%, rebounding from Wednesday’s steep losses
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/oil-markets-coronavirus-stimulus-in-focus.html
    Oil jumps 13%, rebounding from Wednesday’s steep losses
    Oil prices rose more than 10% on Thursday after a three-day sell off drove them to their lowest levels in almost two decades as demand plummeted due to the coronavirus and supplies surged in a fight for market share between Russia and Saudi Arabia.
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    Until today, it had actually been tracking to core bond funds, like DODIX, down about 9% from peak. And, it continued to do a bit better than PIMIX, down 13% ... it dropped 2.5% today as did ZEOIX (double ouch). I saw a dislocation in REITs earlier in day, so had a feeling it might be bad for IOFIX. Biggest concern is liquidity with all things right now. Fear-driven markets don't behave normally. When everybody runs for cash, watch out. It certainly not interest rate or duration risk, which in my mind leaves credit and liquidity. The former since people's ability to pay mortgages depends on them being employed. I've reached out to the firm to try and get insight on liquidity. No response yet. Junkster would have sold after the fund dropped 1%, I'm sure. But he was very disciplined that way! Other than cash, all seems very shaky right now.
  • the single dumbest paragraph filed with the SEC this month
    What's the point of the obfuscation if the next document filed with the SEC (the reorg proxy) reveals all? (Don't even try to answer that.)
    LREOX is the Predecessor Portfolio. It's a series of the Lazard Funds. The predecessor fund to the Predecessor Portfolio was Grubb & Ellis AGA U.S. Realty (GBEUX).
    The Target Fund [LREOX] commenced operations after all of the assets of an investment company advised by Grubb & Ellis Alesco Global Advisors, LLC, the Grubb & Ellis AGA U.S. Realty Fund (the “Predecessor Fund”), were transferred to the Target Fund in exchange for Open Shares of the Target Fund in a tax-free reorganization on September 23, 2011.
    From the Lazard proxy for LREOX to be acquired by the Terra Firma shell fund.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141819/000089418920001854/terrafirman14doc.htm
    Supplement to the 2010 GBEUX prospectus describing the 2011 reorg into Lazard:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141819/000089418911002851/grbells-tpm_497e.htm