@MFO Members: Nonsense ! The truth is some thinly traded ETFs have very wide bid/ask spreads even if they hold very liquid stocks. The spread is the difference between the lowest price a trader is willing to sell the ETF and the highest price a buyer is willing to pay. The wider the spread, the bigger the immediate loss upon buying the ETF. Here is the current spread on SPY the worlds largest fund with 230.5 billion in assets. Bid/Ask/Spread 234.08/234.09. QQQ with 46.1 billion in assets 131.96/ 131.97.
Regards,
Ted

Hi @Ted,
Some folks use the calendar; however, I use a twist put on the calendar and that is my market barometer and equity weighting matrix to assist me in when to throttle up (or down) my equity allocation.
I have written about my system often and if one wants to read more on my system then they can reference my post titled "The Markets and More."
I have linked my most recent April 13th post on "The Markets and More" below. In addition, this link provides another link to my 2475 call for the S&P 500 Index. I'm thinking that this will take place sometime during 4Q2017.
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/32431/the-markets-and-more-week-ending-april-13-2017#latest

@: I believe the market will move sideways until late September, then it will add another 5%. The only thing wrong with selling in May and going away is at what point do you get back in ?
Regards,
Ted

Hi @golub1,
I have three hybrid sleeves and with this I just decided to post a description of my sleeve management system along with current holdings which includes area allocations as of April 1, 2017. This does not include the seasonal revision to my portfolio's new overall allocations noted in my above post but it will provide fund holdings that you seek. Come fall, I'll most likely be back to the overall allocations described below.
Old_Skeet's Sleeve Management System
Now being in retirement here is a brief description of my sleeve management system which I organized to better help manage the investments held within mine & my wife’s combined portfolios. Currently, the master portfolio is comprised of two taxable investment accounts, two self directed ira accounts, a health savings account plus two bank accounts. With this, I came up with four investment areas. They are a cash area which consist of two sleeves … an investment cash sleeve and a demand cash sleeve. The next area is the income area which consists of two sleeves … a fixed income sleeve and a hybrid income sleeve. Then there is the growth & income area which has more risk associated with it than the income area and it consist of four sleeves … a global equity sleeve, a global hybrid sleeve, a domestic equity sleeve and a domestic hybrid sleeve. An finally there is the growth area, where the most risk in the portfolio is found and it consist of five sleeves … a global sleeve, a large/mid cap sleeve, a small/mid cap sleeve, a specialty/theme sleeve plus a special investment (spiff) sleeve. Each sleeve (in most cases) consists of three to nine funds with the size and the weight of each sleeve can easily be adjusted, from time-to-time, by adjusting the number of funds and amounts held the exception is the spiff sleeve. By using the sleeve system one can get a better picture of their overall investment landscape and weightings by sleeve and area. In addition, I have found it beneficial to Xray each fund, each sleeve, each investment area, and the portfolio as a whole quarterly. Again, weightings can be adjusted form time-to-time as to how I might be reading the markets along with using an adaptive allocation matrix as an aid to help set the stock allocation weighting. All funds pay their distributions to the cash area of the portfolio with the exception being those in my health savings accounts where reinvestment occurs. With the other accounts paying to the cash area builds the cash area of the portfolio to meet the portfolio’s monthly cash disbursement amount (if necessary) with the residual being left for new investment opportunity. Generally, in any one year, I take no more than a sum equal to one half of my portfolio’s average five year return. In this way, principal builds over time. In addition, most buy/sell trades settle from, or to, the cash area with some net asset value exchanges between funds taking place.
Last revised: 04/01/2017 Master Portfolio
Here is how I have my asset allocation broken out in percent ranges, by area. My neutral allocation weightings are cash 20%, income 30%, growth & income 35%, growth & other assets 15%. I do an Instant Xray analysis on the portfolio quarterly (sometimes monthly) and make asset weighting adjustments as I feel warranted based upon my assessment of the market, my risk tolerance, cash needs, etc. Currently, according to Morningstar Instant Xray, I am about 20% in the cash area, 25% in the income area, 35% domestic stocks area, 15% foreign stocks area & 5% in the other asset area. In addition, I have the portfolio set up in Morningstar’s Portfolio Manager by sleeve and as a whole for easy monitoring plus I use brokerage account statements along with some other Morningstar reports as well.
Cash Area (Weighting Range 15% to 25% with neutral weighting being 20%)
Demand Cash Sleeve… (Cash Distribution Accrual & Future Investment Accrual)
Investment Cash Sleeve … (Savings & Time Deposits)
Income Area (Weighting Range 25% to 35% with neutral weighting being 30%)
Fixed Income Sleeve: BAICX, CTFAX, FMTNX, GIFAX, LALDX, LBNDX, NEFZX, THIFX & TSIAX
Hybrid Income Sleeve: APIUX, CAPAX, DIFAX, FISCX, FKINX, ISFAX, JNBAX, PGBAX & PMAIX
Growth & Income Area (Weighting Range 30% to 40% with neutral being 35%)
Global Equity Sleeve: CWGIX, DEQAX & EADIX
Global Hybrid Sleeve: CAIBX, TEQIX & TIBAX
Domestic Equity Sleeve: ANCFX, FDSAX, INUTX & SVAAX
Domestic Hybrid Sleeve: ABALX, AMECX, DDIAX, FBLAX, FRINX, HWIAX & LABFX
Growth Area (Weighting Range 10% to 20% with neutral weighting being 15%)
Global Sleeve: ANWPX, SMCWX & THOAX
Large/Mid Cap Sleeve: AGTHX, BWLAX & SPECX
Small/Mid Cap Sleeve: PCVAX, PMDAX & TSVAX
Specialty & Theme Sleeve: LPEFX, PGUAX & NEWFX
Spiff Sleeve: VADAX
Total Number of Mutual Fund Positions = 48

@golub1: There is nothing wrong with ETFs, the secret is to have the discipline not to trade them. For your information, here is the Ben Carlson article I linked eariler this morning.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/32520/ben-carlson-when-an-etf-changes-its-stripes#latest

An interesting article for the "Sell in May" crowd like myself that use the strategy as part of my investment plan and have for a good number of years. I have bookmarked it for future reference.
One of the primary reassons that I have been a big fan of the strategy is that one can use it during low interest rate periods (like we have been in) and make good money with part of your cash being placed into the strategy between the end of October throuh the end of April. Then move back to cash during the off period. Most times you will make more than just what interest alone would have paid. At least, it has for me through the years.
Some that use this strategy like to aveage in and out of their special investment positions as I do. And, yes sometimes I move to bonds and/or cash ... but, this year I decided to expand my hybrid income sleeve and open a few new positions as hybrid income funds usually hold bonds plus good dividend paying stocks along with some other asset classes. I felt my hybrid income sleeve could better weather the anticipated coming FMOC rate increases over my bond funds. So, this year I have started to venture into the hybrid income space along with starting the restoring of my CD ladder. I felt this was a good move since I already have ample cash that can be put to work should a sizeable stock market pullback develop.
My new target asset allocation (as defined by Xray) is cash 20%, income 30% (up 5%), stocks 45% (down 5%) and other assets 5%. Currently, I am stock heavy and income light by a few percent each ... but, come sometime in May I plan to be closer to my target allocation.
Please note, I use the "Sell in May" strategy as part of a well diversified investment plan and not as a complete investment strategy in and by itself. This is because, most times it works but sometimes it doesn't work; and, I have learned through my many years in investing there is no sure thing.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet

FMIJX: 35 stocks, 29 other holdings.
PRCNX: some household names, but 60 holdings and small.

I've recommended this one before. PRIDX. 224 holdings, so it might not make it through your filters. Here's a link to the full bundle of holdings in a .pdf file, as of 31st March, 2017:
https://individual.troweprice.com/staticFiles/gcFiles/pdf/phidfq1.pdf:
Geographical breakdown:
Japan 21.8%
United Kingdom 12.8%
China 8.4%
Germany 4.4%
India 4.2%
South Korea 3.9%
Spain 3.7%
Italy 3.5%
France 3.5%
Sweden 3.4%
Performance and other stuff:
http://quotes.wsj.com/mutualfund/PRIDX?mod=DNH_S_cq
$59.12 share price on 18th April, 2017 is a 52-week high.

Hello @ep1,
THOAX ... Thornburg Global Opportunities Fund is a focus fund that I have owned for better than five years and seeks investment opportunity worldwide holding somewhere between 30 to 40 stocks. It is split about evenly between domestic and foreign and although it has owned small caps form time-to-time it is now more of a large/mid cap fund when it comes to style orientation. It is currently a five star bronze rate fund by Morningstar and has a top of class performance for 1, 3, 5 & 10 year periods (top 20% and better).
I have provided a link to both its fact sheet and Morningstar report below.
https://www.thornburg.com/products-performance/mutual-funds/overview.aspx?id=FGO
http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/THOAX/quote.html
The other two funds that are members of my global growth sleeve where THOAX is found are ANWPX and SMCWX.

I am not an index fan myself. So I'll offer two ideas ...
VMVFX ... yeah it's got 300ish holdings but it's about 50-50 US/international, skews midcap, and doesn't have the "usual suspects" in the top 10 places. And cheap at IIRC .30 ER or less. It's become my preferred place to park money in the equity markets that's not otherwise assigned.
BRLIX ... a .15 ER with 35 quantitatively-selected holdings that offers an equal-weighted collection of MEGA CAP companies. Even if they're mostly US based they do business all over the world. If I wanted basic market exposure that in some way 'touches' the world with its products I'd use that versus something that tracks an index or (gasp!) a market-weighted index.

It is that time of year when many investors dial down their equity allocation and raise their fixed income side of their portfolio if they play the traditional seasonal investment strategy known as "Sell in May and Go Away." Throw in the current geopolitical risk and you now have a good number of investors rebalancing towards risk off assets. Anyway, this is how I am currently viewing things.
The Sell in May strategy is linked below for those that would like to read about it.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sell-in-may-and-go-away.asp
Old_Skeets market barometer closed Easter Monday with a reading of 146 down from Thursday's reading of 150. Over the past 21 trading days the barometer's reading has averaged a reading of 143 indicating stocks on average have been overvalued by about five percent during the period. The barometer readings have ranged from a low of 139 to a recent high of 150. A higher barometer reading indicates there is more investment value in S&P 500 Index while a lower reading indicates less investment value. As recent stock market prices have been falling the barometer reading has been rising. To me, this is indicating that even with an improved earnings outlook the geopolitical risk has many investors concerned and they are moving towards risk off assets of government bonds and the defensive stock sectors.
Since, the recent March 1st stock market high I have been averaging down my allocation to stocks and increasing my fixed side comprised of bond funds, hybrid income funds and cash which includes CD's.
By calendar, its that time of year ... and, then throw in the current geoplotical risk leaves the Dog Days of Summer ahead.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dog_days
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet

Hi @Junkster,
S&P 500:
Jan 1, 1984 166.40
Jan 1, 1983 144.30
Jan 1, 1982 117.30
Jan 1, 1981 133.00
Jan 1, 1980 110.90
I have not dug through old data, but recall the end of August in 1982 as the turn around and the beginning of the upward run in U.S. equity after the beating of the mid-1970's.
An aside note, not directly related and may not be of any value, but the mid range of the boomers in 1992 was about 36 years old finding decent average earning/wage power at the time for perhaps the next 20 years before the slow turn down in earning power. Boomers, of course, have entered into the retirement phase and others entering at a 10,000/day rate, being 4 million/year. The reported birth numbers from 1946-1964 for the U.S. was about 76 million. A question as to whether there is enough money among this group to help support either equity or bond markets to the positive side. We here have read the reports of low savings rates for many boomers; and so there may not be enough power in this group to support any market area(s). The flip side being that the output/withdrawal period is in play, versus the prior period of input/investing. Whose/what money is going to support this withdrawal in order to support equity/bond returns to the positive side going forward???
Bond yield range: The current yields below have remained in this spread range for some time now; being about .6%; and traveling together. I do not recall any breakout in the 30 year to extend the yield above and beyond this .6% spread from the 10 year, for at least the past 6 months to 1 year period. For my non financial background and IMHO; I read this as continued low inflation as well as other twitches and wiggles, which may be related to high equity valuations and the big money (pension funds, foreign central banks, etc.) still maintaining "safe ground" and purchases while Euro area bond yields remain very low.
10 Year 2.25%
30 Year 2.90%
Note: most investment grade bonds lost a small piece of price ground today.
A few late in the day musings.
Take care,
Catch

I have to admit I am impressed. Just like at the beginning of 2014 when 99.99% were saying bonds (10 yield Treasuries) were on their way to 4% (they were 3% at the time) Gundlach was the sole dissenter and predicting bonds were headed back to 2%. This time around when bonds recently hit 2.55% to 2.60% just about everyone was saying it would be a non stop rise to 3%. But Mr Gundlach again was a dissenter saying they would first trade below 2.25% before resuming their journey to 3%. They are 2.22% as we speak.
I guess the surprise here would be they never get close to 3% and fall below 2% or stay in the current range of 2.20 to 2.50%. I am not sure what has been the story of 2017 - the resilience of stocks or bonds. I am also wondering if there is some secular shift underway where bonds may trade in a low yield range for years to come. And that is from the baby boomers seeking safer and less volatile investments in retirement as they rotate out of equities. It sure has been a boom for the early boomers since 1982. It's liked they all woke up one day and began worrying about retirement shoveling money into stocks. Maybe now they are waking up again and shoveling money into bonds.

VSCIX and PRDSX. AND MSCFX.
Vanguard, TRP, Mairs and Power.
In order, 5-year performance:
V +13.22/22nd percentile.
TRP +13.82/7th percentile.
M&P +15.64/1st percentile. (M&P fund is currently CLOSED)
Small-caps are NOT "on fire" these days....

Thanks @Ted,
I also like BCSIX. Presently closed, but I'm outside waiting for it to reopen. Concentrated in Tech and HC.
Anyone else have a favorite concentrated small cap?
Here's a 10 yr comparison between PXSGX and BCSIX:

A good thing to know about a 529 plan owned by a grandparent:

If a 529 plan is owned by a grandparent, a noncustodial parent or anybody else other than the student or a dependent student’s custodial parent, it is not reported as an asset on the FAFSA.

529 ownership matters:
https://edvisors.com/plan-for-college/saving-for-college/529-college-savings-plans/financial-aid/
fastweb.com/financial-aid/articles/how-do-grandparent-owned-529-college-savings-plans-affect-financial-aid-eligibility
Also, here's a EFC (Expected Family Contribution) Calculator:
savingforcollege.com/financial-aid-calculator/

It's always fun to get lots of ideas and to be amazed at the level of commitment and the shared expertise of MFO members. The devil may be in the details, such as the choice of platform. If I were the parent, I would not want to receive a gift of a Fidelity fund, say, if I had a Schwab account already because of the transaction fees. The 529 is a good choice, but in our case such a gift would have been welcome at first, but not so later on when it turned out our first child had a reading-based learning disability and never went to college. A brokerage offering SPY and QQQ commission-free would be just the ticket for the stunningly simple KISS portfolio promoted by @Ted.

@Charles; The thread started by BenWP was for his grandchildren with at least a 40 to 50 year time frame. That's why I recommended stocks that over such a time frame compounded returns, outperform bonds by a wide margin.
Regards,
Ted
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html

Good stuff.
Thank you BenWP.
I think long-term investing using balanced allocations is a perfectly satisfactory strategy.
By long-term I mean ... a life time.
I like for example the 50/50 portfolio of BBALX and FFNOX referenced in our December commentary.
FFNOX is Fidelity's Four In One 85/15 stock/bond allocation. Combined with BBALX, the portfolio produces a 75/25 equity/bond global allocation.
Here is break-down using Morningstar's Allocation tool:

Perhaps more conservative, a 50/50 stock/bond allocation would similarly reward long term investors handsomely. Say, 1/3 each to BBALX, FFNOX, and FTBFX:

Several such combinations possible, of course, like the one suggested above by billr. It depends on your platform (Schwab, TIFF, USAA), fund house preference (Vanguard, Fidelity), etc. Just be sure fees are low!
Holding 1, 2, or 3 such funds is a perfectly acceptable approach, even over new platforms like Betterment, which charge 0.25% annually on top of underlining fund fees.
Put on auto investment (making sure there are no recurring transaction fees) and forget about it ... for a life time.
From a strategy approach, I would have no problem even recommending 50/50 to BBALX and MASFX, except the expense of the latter (and most alternative funds) makes it harder for me to recommend as a significant part of a life time portfolio.
I have similar reservation with fees of AKREX and HIMVX, but that's just me ... I always cringe when a mutual fund charges more than 1%.
My two cents.
c

Weirdest interview ever:

Of (writer meant "If") you talk to advisors in the field or experts in technology, experts in the field, they're talking about the latest financial planning software, or the hot new rebalancing product. They're not talking about exponential technologies, which is an entirely different conversation.
So most people are unaware of the field of exponential technologies, and have no knowledge that this ETF exists, or why it’s different from all the others. I think for both of those reasons, it’s not on the radar of many in the industry.

My question as the reader, "What is Exponential Technology?"
Edelman can use the term, but nowhere in the article does he (or the interviewer) define it. Nor does he explain how he filters for ET when he buys companies that have it.
Some how 197 companies appear to have it according to his EFT XT's portfolio. The top ten holdings amount to a mere 6% of the EFT's AUM...not very concentrated.
He personally (I assume Edelmen Financial) holds 75% of the EFT (down from 100% when he created it the ETF). I will assume it has been pedaled quite heavily to his "sheeple" (who I'm sure have heard of it).
I've heard enough, I'll pass.
In XT's short history (2 years) it appears less impressive than "Unexponential Technology" ETF, QQQ: