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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Unique S&P 500 ETF: High Income, Low Volatility Bring Investor Love: SPHD
    FYI: When an ETF invests in the S&P 500 while offering less risk and a big yield, what’s not to love?
    PowerShares S&P 500 High Dividend Low Volatility (SPHD) filters the iconic index for 75 companies with the highest dividend yields, then extracts 50 of those that are least volatile.
    SPHD was up 5.99% this year through March 2 vs. a 2.39% loss for SPY. It has also outperformed SPY, the largest and oldest U.S. exchange traded fund, over the past three years.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etfs/sp-500-etf-high-income-low-volatility-and-loads-of-investor-love/
  • Strategists Turn Bullish on Emerging Markets Stocks
    Maybe these strategists know something that the other strategists in the past 5 - 7 years didn't.... The brilliant Ray Dalio of Bridgewater has had outsized positions in international / emerging markets for the last 7 years and they haven't budged. Because of the influence of the Modern Portfolio Theory crowd, there has been increasing pressure, over the last 10 years for investors to "go" emerging. And ETFs make it too easy for investors to attempt it ..... IMO, the domestic U.S. market is still the best and easiest to contemplate, even if it has occasional declines every 3 - 5 years ...
  • A History Of Mutual-Fund Doors Opening And Closing
    There are so many ways of closing a fund that it's hard to fathom cash flow management being a difficult issue.
    There is of course the hard close, where even existing investors cannot add more money. This should not impede funds with excess cash, as Lewis pointed out. Then there are funds that allow money to trickle in by restricting the amount that existing investors can add. The Vanguard Primecap funds that Mona mentioned are a good example of these. They used to be restricted to $25K addditional per SSN per year. Vanguard has since relaxed that a bit, allowing $25K per account type per SSN per year. (Vanguard also allows Flagship clients to open new accounts.)
    Most funds that are closed still allow existing investors to add money (soft close). Some go further. Many funds allow new accounts via retirement plans (usually if the plan already has some minimum amount in the fund when counting all participants). Or they may allow clients of investment advisers to open new accounts.
    Some funds that are closed via third party intermediaries are still open to investors that invest directly. American Century Midcap Value (ACMVX) and Vanguard Wellington (VWELX/VWENX) are good examples of that. I've seen funds that close off access through major brokers (typically Fidelity and Schwab) but leave access open through other brokers. Sorry, no current examples come to mind.
    The point is that cash inflow is more like a spigot than an on/off switch. It's fairly easy to turn that knob. The problem with inflows comes about not because there's no spigot, but if there's no pressure behind it. That is, a fund won't attract cash when the market is plummeting and no one wants to put money in, regardless of whether it's closed or not.
  • High Yield Corporate Mutual Funds
    Well we get to here his thoughts again Tuesday !
    Jeffrey Gundlach (who many follow blindly because he is an expert and manages billions)
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/26347/another-open-mic-for-doubleline-s-jeffery-gundach-connect-the-dots-3-8-2016-webcast

    Actually before I get grief about it, the Jeffrey Gundlach DoubleLine bond funds mentioned (DBLTX and DLTNX have been among the best of the best over the past 1, 3, and 5 years. And obviously had you *blindly* put your money in the trust of DoubleLine you would be sitting pretty in that bond category if a diversified portfolio is your thing. I am as eager as anyone to hear Mr. Gundlach's views on 3/8 if only to see how the markets react.
  • High Yield Corporate Mutual Funds
    Well we get to here his thoughts again Tuesday !
    Jeffrey Gundlach (who many follow blindly because he is an expert and manages billions)
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/26347/another-open-mic-for-doubleline-s-jeffery-gundach-connect-the-dots-3-8-2016-webcast
    Thanks also @rabockma @Junkster
    Schwab
    Symbol
    PHYZX (Minimum: $100.00)
    PHYZX - Prudential High Yield Fund Cl Z As of 03/04/2016
    NAV: 5.06 +0.03
    POP: 0.00
    52 Week High: 5.63
    52 Week Low: 4.78
    Trans. Fee Fund: No
    Sales Load: None
    as is ETHIX @ Schwab (Minimum: $100.00)
  • High Yield Corporate Mutual Funds
    My high yield pick is PHYZX - low expenses of .58, seasoned management, and rated 5 stars by M*.
    Among the better junk bond funds and wondered why it has never been on a my radar screen. Now I remember. At Scottrade where I trade it is only available to clients of registered investment advisers only. Maybe not so at other firms. Thanks for the heads up to the forum on a consistently good junk bond fund.
    TSP_Transfer Appreciate your posts and keep em coming. But you know me, I never act on what I read but price and only price. But nonetheless I still read all I can on the markets if for any reason to see if there is becoming a consensus. The experts are almost wrong when there is a universal consensus are where particular markets are heading and often times I factor that into price action. Obviously the consensus is still that there is another shoe to drop in that bond category. Jeffrey Gundlach (who many follow blindly because he is an expert and manages billions) was still predicting a collapse in the junk bond market in early February just a few days before it took off on its biggest rally in years. The jury is still out on that call.
  • High Yield Corporate Mutual Funds
    @Junkster.Only presented the S A link as a primer for high yield options and comparisons.
    Here is another chart from the S A article that clearly shows your call of a bottom on February 11th.Even the much maligned FPACX is up 7.69% since then !
    image
    also @Junkster Risk-off to continue ? More for your perusal.
    MLPs had another ripping week as higher oil prices and E&P equity issuance attracted new capital propelling the benchmark index higher +7.21%, and a -8.72% YTD loss. Crude rose 10.2% for the week as lower production numbers were reported by EIA (table below) which seemed to trump the higher crude storage reported, along with more cooperative comments from OPEC members and Russia. The reality of lower crude production has been good news for MLP's, despite what those lower volumes may mean for some midstream assets
    http://mlpdata.com/mlp_newsevents/article_details?article_id=282&mbTrackingId=1
    "If you are Exxon, you have to be looking around at all of the wreckage in the energy sector these days and feel like a kid in a candy store,” said Spencer Cutter, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. The debt offer is a sign that Exxon may "start picking up great assets at fire-sale prices" and "take advantage of the downturn and start shopping," he said.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-29/exxon-said-to-plan-bond-offering-after-rating-downgrade-threat
    Oil jumps as traders close short positions, U.S. producers cut rig count
    http://news.yahoo.com/oil-rises-traders-close-short-positions-u-producers-015805943--finance.html
    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/commodities
    Asian shares hit two-month highs on Monday, extending sharp gains from last week, following upbeat U.S. jobs data and a rebound in oil and commodity prices.
    http://news.yahoo.com/asian-shares-hit-two-month-high-solid-u-004607584--business.html
    Add 3/07 Latest From Otter Creek L/S Fund -2.32% since Feb 11th
    On the Bearish Side .From OTCRX March 7th posting of Feb Fact Sheet
    Market Commentary
    We continue to be mindful of both credit growth and credit conditions. Financial conditions remain tighter than several months ago and access to the high yield
    market has become more challenging since last year. In addition, despite the rise in equity markets recently, the spread on the 2 year and 10 year treasuries is
    the lowest since 2008 which does not bode well for future credit growth. We believe these dynamics are worth monitoring closely.
    Equity market valuations remain relatively unattractive, in our view. We estimate the S&P 500 is trading at approximately 16x-17x earnings – modestly above its
    historical average – despite fairly tepid sales and earnings growth. Given the ongoing deterioration in global growth trends, we see more downside than upside
    to earnings near-term. We are closely monitoring the potential for consumer spending to accelerate on the back of an improved labor market, better wage
    growth and low gas prices. A potential acceleration in consumer spending coupled with a further stabilization in the dollar and commodities could help drive
    improved earnings growth later in the year.
    Our long portfolio is structured around owning high quality companies benefiting from secular tailwinds, idiosyncratic ideas that should perform well regardless of
    the market environment, and special situations. Our short portfolio is structured to take advantage of companies overearning due to ultra-low interest rates and
    companies with a high likelihood of missing sales forecasts due to a weaker macro environment.
    As we enter March, we have approximately 20% of the Fund in cash. Considering the rise in equity markets over the past several weeks and the collapse in
    volatility, we have taken the opportunity to add to our highest conviction ideas by adding both common stock shorts and out of the money puts
    http://www.ottercreekfunds.com/media/pdfs/OCL_Factsheet.pdf
  • High Yield Corporate Mutual Funds
    My high yield pick is PHYZX - low expenses of .58, seasoned management, and rated 5 stars by M*.
  • A History Of Mutual-Fund Doors Opening And Closing
    As an aside, I talked Friday with Steve Romick, the lead manager of FPACX, about why the fund remains open. One of his arguments is that managing a closed fund is harder than you'd think. All funds are subject to regular redemptions. In an open fund that's drawing assets, those redemptions are met using the inflows. In a closed fund, managers may need to liquidate positions to cover them. That can goof with both the fund's portfolio positioning and its tax efficiency.

    The folks at Primecap Management seems to do just fine managing the portfolios of their stable of closed funds such as VPMCX, VPCCX, VHCOX, and POAGX with low turnover and cash levels below 5% (except VPCCX is a bit over 6%).
    While not a stated critera, if we want to stay with moderated allocation funds, David Giroux at PRWCX also does pretty good managing his closed fund.
    Mona
  • High Yield Corporate Mutual Funds
    Summary From an article earlier this week from Seeking Alpfa looking @ E T Fs in this space
    authored byFundGuru Mar. 3, 2016 8:40 AM ET
    High yield bonds have performed poorly of late, despite historically delivering equity-like returns with lower volatility.
    We believe the recent sell-off provides an attractive entry point for long-term investors.
    E T Fs At A Glance
    The high yield bond E T F space is currently dominated by four large players:
    iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond E T F (:HYG)
    SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond E T F (:JNK)
    SPDR Barclays Short Term High Yield Bond E T F (SJNK)
    PIMCO 0-5 Year High Yield Corporate Bond Index E T F (:HYS)
    The key distinguishing feature between the four E T Fs is their duration. The HYG and JNK are normal duration ETFs, while SJNK and HYS are shorter duration ETFs.
    image
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/3950906-buy-hyg-high-yielding-lower-risk-equities
    @Junkster said on March 1
    We both started on 2/12. This may surprise you. I hold 4 junk funds - my largest is PYHRX (doesn't accumulate daily) PHYDX, EIHIX ( I said never again a fee fund but) and JAHYX (not banned there in my taxable. You will notice no MWHYX. It's action last Tuesday was enough for me. A fun ride let's hope we don't have to cut and run and oil behaves itself.
    @SlowLane said
    March 1 Flag
    I meant to say "Did you instigate this exodus from Treasuries to junk?"
    You pick some good funds. I am in ABHIX, along with PHYDX and EIHIX.
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/75775/#Comment_75775
    Edit
    I own BGH
    (% of Assets*)
    Bond Ratings
    Baa 1.29
    Ba 5.63
    B 77.25
    Caa and below 10.43
    Not Rated 0.75
    Cash and Accrued Income 4.65
    TOTAL 100.00
    Country Diversification
    United States 59.71
    United Kingdom 16.71
    Germany 3.35
    France 2.94
    Netherlands 2.13
    TOTAL 84.84
    Top Holdings
    Oil and Gas 13.33
    Healthcare, Education and Childcare 10.48
    Jan 31 2016 Fact Sheet
    http://www.babsoncapital.com/assets/user/media/Babson_Capital_Global_Short_Duration_High_Yield_Fund_Factsheet1.pdf
  • Millennials Hire Computers To Invest Their Money
    FYI: Computers help us decide what route to take to the grocery store, whom to date and what music to listen to. Why shouldn't they also decide how we invest?
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/millennials-hire-computers-to-invest-their-money/2016/03/03/29e77556-e173-11e5-8c00-8aa03741dced_story.html
    Acorns Website:
    https://www.acorns.com/investments/
  • In Fledgling Exchange-Traded Fund, Striking A Blow For Women
    FYI: (The Linkster has said many times. "Build It And They Will Come", but I believe this fund will wind-up on Ron Rowland's ETF Death List in about a year and a half.)
    State Street Global Advisors will introduce its 159th exchange-traded fund on Tuesday, the SPDR Gender Diversity Index E.T.F. Fortunately, the fund’s ticker symbol is catchier: SHE.
    The fund’s goal is to achieve market-rate returns by investing in United States companies that “are leaders in advancing women through gender diversity on their boards of directors and in management.” It will track an index of 125 to 150 stocks that have been culled from the Russell 1000 index and have scored high on a scale of gender metrics.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/05/your-money/in-fledgling-exchange-traded-fund-striking-a-blow-for-women.html?ref=your-money&_r=0
  • A History Of Mutual-Fund Doors Opening And Closing
    FYI: Since MFO's The Shadow keeps us up to date on fund openings and closing of funds, I'm relinking a 10 month old article on the subject by WSJ Jason Zweig. MFO's David Snowball comments on why fund compaines are reluctant to close a fund.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.wsj.com/totalreturn/2015/04/24/a-history-of-mutual-fund-doors-opening-and-closing/
  • Money Market Funds
    They're still not competitive with bank money market accounts (and have more risk to boot), but they are beginning to show signs of life.
    Vanguard's Prime MMF (Investor class) VMMXX now has a 7-day yield of 0.40%. The closest Fidelity Prime MMF, i.e. one that mere mortals can afford, is Fidelity Money Market Fund. It comes in Premium Class (FZDXX) yielding 0.36% with a $100K min ($10K for IRAs) and $10K min balance requirement, and "regular" class (SPRXX) yielding 0.24%.
    These are all "prime" funds, meaning that come October they will have to impose liquidity constraints. In times of stress they may impose a redemption fee, hold your money up to 10 business days, or some combination of those.
    Fidelity's old prime fund, Cash Reserves (FDRXX) has been promoted (or downgraded, depending on your point of view) to a government fund. No liquidity constraints, but no yield either (0.03%).
    Muni MMFs are stuck at 0.01%, suggesting that a move to taxable MMFs (for now) is in order for cash you keep at a brokerage. Sweep accounts seem to be paying under 10 basis points: Fidelity's is at 0.07%, Schwab Bank yields 0.10% for savings accounts, less for checking.
    Here's iMoneyNet's list of top yielding retail MMFs (so it excludes classes like FZDXX):
    http://www.imoneynet.com/retail-money-funds/
  • Waiting for the smoke to clear?
    As usual, I have no idea, but added to junk mortgages after their little blip several days ago, added to stock when the S&P5c made that convincing move above the 50d, and have cut back a little on the rate-sensitive stuff.
    As far as junk corporates go, here's some (imho) halfway decent analysis from a week ago id'ing $81-$83 on HYG as resistance for HY corps - and the price of HYG has been hanging just below that level for the past three days. I'd imagine that's the next test of how far the junk run may go.
    Edit: it's now 5 days that HYG hasn't closed below 80 or above 81.
  • Waiting for the smoke to clear?
    Oil service stocks have had statistically significant positive outcomes in the winter and biotech in the fall. A sector model that I use, utilizes oil services, biotech, and utilities combined with a risk management heuristic. It has produced decent returns over 30 years. We will sell out of oil services on May 1.
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zlgOYdATSzC7YrUE9yE_uY03sHBRTcLUVyKusqqv2tI/edit#gid=113856734
  • Zack's: best 4 balanced funds?
    @Crash & MFO Members: Here's how U.S. News & World Report which uses Zack's, along with M*, Lipper, S&P Capital IQ, and The Street to arrive at a consensus ranks the four funds listed in Crash's link.
    Regards,
    Ted
    ABALX: #5
    TRPBX: #22
    FBALX: #12
    FSGNX #87
  • Gundlach's DoubleLine Plans To Shutter Its Equities Growth Fund
    On a dollar-weighted basis, the impact on industry performance figures is de minimis.
    Just as I don't look at inflated (unweighted) expense ratios - 1.25% for the average fund vs. 0.71% for the average dollar (2013) - I don't pay much heed to all the noise from short-lived, scrawny funds.
    http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/researchpapers/Fee_Trend.pdf
    While these petty funds don't move the industry needle, they can affect fund families' reputations that are built on high star ratings. For example, T. Rowe Price touts over 60 4 and 5 star funds.