One of my favorite documents to share with young investors that Wiiliam Bernstein published:
https://etf.com/docs/IfYouCan.pdf

I was the old guy in our department (early 40's) and a few of the younger 20 somethings asked me one time if i went to the 401k meeting and i said no and they said it confused them beyond belief. I told them if they were my kids, I would recommend they put 100% of tehir money in VTSAX (it was available and the rest of the options were meh) and keep piling money into it. Eventually there will be a time to MAYBE do something different but right now in early 20's keep it as simple as possible. I also gave the 2 of them this pdf.
Well at a work function where we all get together (90% remote) i'm sitting with a bunch of the 20 somethings and they are talking about the pdf and someone was like "yeah just use total stock market from vanguard" i'm like oooo boy hopefully I dont' get in trouble.
Last year I looked at our work 401k info on Form5500 website. in 2021 prior to this conversation I had wiht the first person, VTSAX represented 3% of all money invested in the 401k. (me). by the end of 2023 it was 11%. I have no idea if that's as a result of a singular conversation but I kind of feel like it was.

One article on the question
A late night listen prompted me to consider the possibility. Guest was Whitney Baker (audio linked at end). Among the concerns she noted is the amount of leverage (borrowed money) in the system. I’m playing that game myself on small scale by (1) carrying a recent home upgrade on a (interest-free for 18 months) credit card so the money can stay invested in a Roth as long as possible. And I carry a small 3% mortgage on my home preferring to risk the money in the markets rather than pay off the loan. Suspect I’m not alone here in that thinking. Of course these are minuscule amounts of “leverage” compared to what hedge funds or CEFs engage in.
Alan Greenspan famously said in the 90s that you can’t recognize a bubble until it has burst. He’s been laughed at for the remark. I get it. But he’s not a dumb person. I won’t list them, but several “authorities” believe there is a market bubble (and they have been scorned in recent years). Bill Fleckenstein is one. Fleck cites passive inflows into retirement savings plans along with index investing. Don’t laugh too loud. He’s certainly been right for several years on gold which has more than doubled over only 2 or 3 years. And highly respected James Stack has his investors at 57% invested and 43% in cash or T-bills. That’s very conservative for him.
Of course, you can cite even more “authorities” who insist there is no bubble. Honestly, I’m not making the case either way. But the question is one worth considering. In a real market crash it’s very hard to “log-in” and sell your plummeting investments and virtually impossible to speak to your friendly fund rep. It gets very crazy. We had a small sneak-preview in late March.
I’ve looked up the P/E (one measure of relative value) on M* for some funds of interest. They all seem tame to me - not signifying a bubble. I have no idea how M* calculates these.
PRWCX: 21.91
DODBX: 13.65
LCORX: 14.08
PRFDX: 14.73
OAKBX: 13.04
Link to Meb Faber May 2025 interview with Whitney Baker

Thanks @bee
Getting some folks to save 15%, 10% or 5% monthly is difficult. I’ve tried with someone I know well. ISTM - Either you “see the light” and do it or you don’t. What “clicks” in one brain but doesn’t in another is a mystery. Bernstein should address the part of the brain that makes us think today will last forever, we will never grow old and the things we buy today will cost the same into perpetuity.
I do think that if you begin investing when you’re very young ignorance may be bliss. We paid a 403-B plan “advisor” 4% front load for buying a global growth fund (thru payroll deduction) in the 70s. But in return we went about our daily lives and work and paid no attention to how the investment was performing. Had we, likely myself and others would have pulled out of equities and gone to cash or safer alternatives at some point along the road.

Here’s an improved link to the transcript
Audio Link
Thank you @Mark. I hope above audio link works for those wanting to listen. I did a very quick read.
A Barry Ritholtz podcast with guest Bill Bernstein. - Bernstein’s credentials:” Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist “
It’s a casual rambling look at stock market risks over many years and how various investors deal with the risk. Bernstein is interested in the part of the brain that instinctively tells us to flee when the going really gets bad. Very hard instinct for most to repress. They discuss different portfolios that are easier to stick to than 100% equities. One is a portfolio designed to endure “the worst 98% of all markets”. They debate whether an all-stock approach is best, but both seem to doubt most individuals could stick to it in prologued bear markets - even if they were 30+ years away from retirement.
Sounds like at any given time you have 5 chances out of 6 that stocks will go up. But how to deal with the 1 in 6 probability they will tank? Bonds enter into the discussion. Jim Grant and Charlie Munger are a couple big names they weave into the discussion (along with William Shakespeare). There are some references to Trump’s tariffs and the risk to markets they pose as well as his family’s general financial acumen - but not the dominant theme.

Looks like I'm having a computer malfunction.

The board’s software is really difficult to work with this evening!

they ask for settlement in euros, Chinese renminbi, the Mexican peso and the Canadian dollar,

Totally agree. US dollar felt 8% in the last 5 months versus major currencies. Same goes to merchants who are getting paid with dollar at lower value.
The other major countries who have not mentioned here and Japanese Yen and British pound.

Morningstar announced the nominees for the 2025 Morningstar Awards for Investing Excellence.
Eligibility requirements include an analyst-assigned M* Medalist Rating of Bronze
or higher and a People Pillar rating of Above Average or High.
M* will announce the winners in early July.
Outstanding US Equity Portfolio Manager Nominees
Will Danoff - Fidelity Contrafund
Bill Nygren - Oakmark, Oakmark Select
David Samra - Artisan International Value
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/morningstar-awards-investing-excellence-outstanding-equity-portfolio-manager-nominees
Outstanding Fixed-Income Portfolio Manager Nominees
Richard D. Figuly - JPMorgan Core Bond
Bryan C. Krug - Artisan High Income
Ford E. O’Neil - Fidelity Advisor Total Bond
https://www.morningstar.com/bonds/morningstar-awards-investing-excellence-outstanding-fixed-income-portfolio-manager-nominees
Outstanding Allocation Portfolio Manager Nominees
Michael Gates - BlackRock Target Allocation ETF series
David Giroux - T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation
Phil Green - BlackRock LifePath Dynamic Fund series
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/morningstar-awards-investing-excellence-outstanding-allocation-portfolio-manager-nominees

Current report from The Guardian:
Iran seeks talks with Israel –

Stocks pushed higher after the Wall Street Journal reported that Iran has been urgently signaling that it seeks an end to hostilities and resumption of talks over its nuclear programs.
Reuters has been told that Iran has asked Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman to press US President Donald Trump to use his influence on Israel for an immediate ceasefire in return for Tehran’s flexibility in talks about its nuclear program.

@FD1000: Concerning your comments (just above), I am in close agreement.

Thank you.
We should concentrate on investments and money on this site.
=======================
Watches: In the last 10 years, I kept buying cheap Chinese watches that look like Apple Watches and have about 80% of their capabilities for about $25-30. Every 3 years I threw them away and bought a new one with better technologies.
I bought 2 Seikos in my life. They are just indestructible. They got banged, fell on the floor, and still work, but I haven't used them for years because I like digital and lighter watches. I also like to read my messages and receive phone calls.
Seikos are great watches; anything more expensive than that is just a showoff. Just call it men's jewelry. Most people carry their phone everywhere; you really don't need a watch.

I drive an M Roadster. I bought it 25 years ago. Used. Paid cash.
Well, yes, we also have a Volvo, bought in 2015, At the factory. Cash.
To my son's considerable distress, I don't feel a need for the most modern car.
At the end of my career, we got a new VP. She called us together for a chat. "When you first graduated, you drove a Toyota, but now you would certainly drive a Lexus." I was driving a Honda. Yeah, I didn't think much of her other ideas, either. This is the part where having a larger investment portfolio came in. Picture my hands in a weighing motion. I was fairly sanguine with the conclusion - I don't need this (the VP experience).

European stocks have underperformed U.S. stocks for more than a decade.
The S&P 500 gained more than 500% since 2010 while European stocks
were up less than 150% during the same period.
Conversely, European stocks gained 220% during the previous 15 years
(1995 - 2009) while the S&P 500 went up only 130%.
What has changed during the past 15 years and will these changes revert?
"The trade-off confronting investors: The U.S.’s biggest stocks are more innovative and profitable
but also far more expensive, while Europe’s are much less interesting but are cheap and have stimulus,
plus an appeal to investors looking to diversify away from their highly concentrated U.S. holdings."
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/it-s-a-scary-world-but-investing-abroad-has-new-attractions/ar-AA1GJfVH

I haven’t looked at his website. No desire to. Yes - Dillian does seem to attach a lot of importance to ostentatious displays of wealth. Probably why he likes to give big tips.
Does that Dick Millie keep any better time than a $100 Seiko? Link to one model.
The (hardcover) book isn’t holding its value very well.
“List Price”: $27.99
Amazon new with free Prime shipping: $10.54
Independent Amazon seller new: $6.30
Used in “good” condition: $4.90
:)

- The only two sources of financial stress are risk and debt.
FD: It depends. Risk is in your head; change your thinking or maybe change your style.
The right debt is healthy and welcome. Example: buying a house with a loan.
- A home is not an investment.
FD: Home is the best investment for most Americans. Most retirees have small portfolios.
- Trying to get ahead by cutting down on expenses is a loser’s game.
FD: Cutting expenses is one of the best choices for most people because Americans spend too much money and have small portfolios at retirement.
- Increasing income is the key to financial happiness.
FD: If income is a higher salary, probably. Increasing investment income isn't the key.
If someone makes $150K annually, is she happier than another who makes $100K?
If someone's portfolio is worth 10 million, is she happier than another who has "only" 5 million?
- A dwelling under 1250 sq. feet represents a meager existence / lack of success in life
FD: Again, if you are a student or just started working in NYC, you are doing fine.
- Driving a 10-15 year old (rusty) vehicle also represents a lack of success in life.
FD: Really? So, why did Sam Walton drive an old vehicle?
- Never finance a new vehicle. Always pay cash.
FD: Know how to negotiate new vehicles and always finance it when the rate is low at 0-1.99% while your investments do much better.
- Don’t skimp on insurance.
FD: too generic. You need the proper insurance.
We always had Home, Auto, and Umbrella. When we had young kids, we had term life insurance. As retirees with grown kids, we stopped it years ago.
- Always give large outsized tips for services well rendered.
FD: Please define "well rendered."
Wait, I have one. Save a million by age 35. The devil is in the details :-)

I was trading stock index futures back in 1990. But as I hazily recall The Gulf War that began in August 1990 ended a bull market and led to a shallow bear that ended in a bottom in October. Then the market chopped around with some big swings until the day we began dropping bombs in January 1991 where it really took off. Not remotely suggesting this will play out the same because of so many different variables. Really curious how tomorrow plays out. Nothing would surprise me. It will be a real test for the current bull which since its lows in April has been immune to lots of negative news. And It is not like this came out of nowhere like in 1990. I hate events like this that occurs on a Friday with the two day weekend ahead.

When I started my present job - Jan 1991, against that backdrop.
My take on that "immunity" is that the economy was so healthy to begin the year, that we might've had another 25% year on the S&P, had all the subsequent disruptions not occurred.

Took a quick look at Richard Mille watches on an internet shopping site.
There were 50 examples ranging from $132,250 to $1,380,000.
Frankly, I thought none of the watches were aesthetically appealing.

I have a couple of Citizen watches along with a Seiko watch.
Inherited an Omega gold watch that my father earned in 1976 for 25 years of service with his employer.
This watch is in mint condition and has never been worn.
Might be worth a decent amount but I think I'll keep the Omega
for sentimental reasons plus it's a very nice looking watch.

Just posted all ratings to MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop from Friday, 13 June 2025. Flows too updated through 6 June, but FLOW through 13 June.

In October 1997, AMG acquired a 71 percent state in Tweedy, Browne for $300 million in cash.
Other owners include its four managing directors, William Browne, Thomas Shrager, John Spears, and Robert Wyckoff, Jr.

http://www.mfwire.com/fundprofile.asp?fund=27524&bhcp=1
Some of the other principals may have sold off their shares at some later times, but TB was effectively sold in 1997.
I never invested in TBGVX in part because it was always expensive, both before and after 1997.
July 1996 prospectus:

Investment advisory fee: 1.25%
Other Expenses: 0.35%
Total Fund Operating Expenses: 1.60%

July 1998 Prospectus:

Investment advisory fee: 1.25%
Other Expenses: 0.17%*
Total Fund Operating Expenses: 1.42%*
Without the voluntary fee waiver of the administrator, Other Expenses would have been 0.18% for the Global Fund. Absent the voluntary fee waivers, Total Fund Operating Expenses would have been 1.43% ... for the Global Fund....

On the surface at least (and disregarding the 1 basis point fee waiver) it looks like AMG improved operating efficiency, resulting in a lower ER. Management fees were unchanged.
IMHO estate planning is more difficult without a spouse. One cannot defer estate taxes by leaving assets to a spouse; one cannot utilize common planning techniques such as a bypass ("AB") trust, etc. Bachelors are "stuck" leaving all of their assets to non-spouses (children, siblings, other family, friends, etc.), with all the commensurate tax planning headaches that involves.

Doesn't look like telecom, but really have no idea.

I have a feeling it’s an early computer. An old (now deceased) friend worked on them in the military during WWII and always claimed one computer would fill an entire room. I’m guessing the time period based on the hair styles of the women + photos I’ve seen of family members in the late 40s. But might be early 50s.
The amazing thing is that you now carry in your pocket a computer immensely more powerful! :)
Link to “The First Computer”