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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Why is M* so negative on IOFIX?
    You are correct, PV has 2 choices monthly or yearly performance. This means the -0.87 is per one whole month.
    I looked carefully (I hope) and that day last Nov was the worse one day decline in 3 years, I found several more days with -0.6 to -0.8%
    Yes, that was by far it’s worst one day performance. That was during the period when both stocks and bonds were being pummeled by rising rates. The current rise in the 10 year Treasury has me a bit spooked although it hasn’t impacted IOFIX much or its cousin DPFNX at all. The later holds less subprime. I may lighten up on IOFIX albeit not drastically. Me lightening to any degree works well as a contrarian indicator.
    @Charles, talked with Brian Loo yesterday. They still feel their holdings in their subprime non agency ( I don’t believe they hold any prime or alt-a non agency) has many more years of life left. Trading around 70 cents on the dollar. An ever shrinking asset class equals scarcity value.
    A lot more we discussed but you can give us more details when you update your report after visiting with the other principals in the firm. Of course when speaking with any fund managers how often will you hear anything but a rosy forecast, IOFIX being a niche fund has some unique things going its way. That is unless there is some major collapse in home prices and all those subprime borrowers get upside down on their loans again and this time decide to walk away.
    .
  • Mining The Short Side: (BIVRX) + David Snowball's & Andrew Foster's Interview With Chuck Jaffe
    just go to M* and look at the cagr graph for a month
    or fido; hoping this 1-month image is viewable by you
    https://realtimebigchart.gtm.idmanagedsolutions.com/custom/fidelity-com/fidelity-research3.gifquote?symb=BIVRX&time=1mo&freq=1dy&size=1
    anyway, fido thinks it's real and has logged the $ increase, so presumably if I were to bail out of it I would get that amount, a significant gain
    have you ever shorted or dealt w shorting funds? this is quite what happens sometimes ... rarely ... almost never ... usually the opposite :(
  • MFO Ratings Updated Through August 2019
    All fund risk and return metrics, ratings, and analytics were uploaded this past Saturday, reflecting performance through August 2019.
    Morningstar’s new fund family is off to just a so-so start from a performance perspective, but as an asset-gatherer, it’s off to a great start … $2.4B!
    https://www.member.mfopremium.com/2019/09/10/mfo-ratings-updated-through-august-2019/
  • Who will keep buying bonds, so that we may continue to retain capital appreciation ???

    @johnN You noted: "Equities maybe still too high imho"
    From a technical view, and only one view type; as technical folks have their own favorite views of the numbers and what they mean, I offer two charts. These charts are set for 5 years of pricing data. One theory is that Relative Strength below 30 is oversold (buy, buy, buy) and over 70 is overbought (handle with caution). This RSI is shown near the top of the chart, and should appear as TEAL in color when over 70. BAGIX (a plain intermediate bond fund), in theory; should be sold, and at the least, not purchased at this point. BUT, what the heck do I/we know. The RSI is merely a gauge of buys and sells to obtain a price point over time. Obviously, the bond types in this fund have had folks buying for awhile, yes?
    As to ITOT (U.S. market etf), which is a twin of Vanguard's VTI for returns; one does not find at this time a RSI that suggests this market area is overbought (not too hot too handle at this time).
    I need to leave this as is for now..... other time commitments; but wanted to offer a view regarding your above statement.
    BAGIX , 5 year chart
    ITOT , 5 year chart
  • Our New Portfolio Analysis Tool
    @Ben, You can use the back icon to get back to the MFO Premium home page. Click Portfolios again and it brings you back to your portfolios page with all portfolios you created. Fractional % works fine. If the total % of all funds do not sum up to 100%, it will inform you. If the trading symbols are not realized, you will be inform. So far I have not able to reproduce the errors you are having, sorry.
    Thanks for trying. The only way I could get it to work was to copy each fund ticker followed by the percentage in brackets and paste them in a new portfolio. And that worked instantly. However in my case, using Safari, there is indeed a back button from Portfolios, that is to say the page on which one enters data for Portfolios 1 or 2 etc. But once I click on the name of the portfolio and am taken to the results page there is no back button available. If I click on "Portfolios" on the *menu* then I get back to the page on which I entered mutual fund tickers for different portfolios.
  • Our New Portfolio Analysis Tool
    @Ben, You can use the back icon to get back to the MFO Premium home page. Click Portfolios again and it brings you back to your portfolios page with all portfolios you created. Fractional % works fine. If the total % of all funds do not sum up to 100%, it will inform you. If the trading symbols are not realized, you will be inform. So far I have not able to reproduce the errors you are having, sorry.
  • Who will keep buying bonds, so that we may continue to retain capital appreciation ???
    WELL.......
    Negative rates are supposed to stimulate the economy, incentivising investment by making it less attractive to hold cash and spurring demand by making credit cheaper. But evidence of the theory working in practice is far from conclusive. Certainly Europe’s bankers are squealing, as they feel margins squeezed by low rates on lending and a reluctance to pass on negative rates to depositors.

    Why did Europe promote negative interest rates?

    Our Federal Reserve system and Treasury may operate within boundaries that are not available to the ECB (European Central Bank) functions, as the euro area's fiscal and financial rules are not similar. I will not expand this difference here. One may readily discover facts of their choice.
    Suffice to note that the U.S. moved to Quantitative Easing, while the Euro Zone remained with a policy of austerity after the market melt in 2008. Many here will recall the rough times in Europe for several years following the melt.

    As to investment grade bonds today
    . IMHO, one can not (yet) invest in bond funds that will allow for the steady eddy yield and pricing from the days of yesteryear; to take one's investment into the future without a care and the feeling of protection against the nasty's. Keeping in mind, that as long as there are buyers, don't be concerned with the yield; as your pricing/capital appreciation will out perform the yield expected.
    My own question(s) to these type of bonds, is how long will purchases remain in place; IF the yields continue to trend to the negative zone??? Purchasers being the big investment houses, hedge funds, pension funds, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds and individuals, etc.
    With some of this in mind, this house has not been inclined to purchase investment grade bond fund(s) for any sake of yield; as this is third place in thought. First and second place belong to a cushion against the current political strains globally and what this may also bring for global equity(s). Yes, a protective place generating some yield and more so; since the mini melt in December of 2018, decent price appreciation. Early 2018 found a U.S. equity blip in February and a few rough patches until the mini melt in December. Early equity market tremors? I won't begin to suggest this knowledge; but money continues to run to IG bonds.
    IF U.S. yields continue downward for whatever reason(s), what are the impacts?
    --- CD's.....the folks who do not and/or will not invest in the markets, and maintain monies in CD's
    --- financial institutions.....will they be able to maintain a proper spread (deposits/loans) to obtain a profit?
    --- consumer loans.....mortgage, auto, etc.; would consumers take on too much cheap debt?
    --- corporate bond issuance..... more or too much debt, and for what purpose?
    --- private pension funding
    --- insurance company(s) products, including annuities
    and more.
    I remain with the thought, as from 2009; This Time Is Different, at least for my investing period.
    Your thoughts please.
    Thank you for allowing my self therapy. :)
    Catch
  • The Closing Bell: Stocks Waver As Investors Hope For Rate Cuts
    FYI: Major U.S. stock indexes swung between small gains and losses Monday as investors looked ahead to meetings later this month where central bankers are expected to cut interest rates.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 38 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 was down 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.19%.
    Monday’s move puts a pause on major indexes’ advance after two consecutive weeks of gains for stocks. Analysts said there was little new information to drive shares Monday.
    Last week’s weaker-than-expected August jobs report reinforced expectations that the Fed would cut interest rates by at least a quarter of a percentage point next week. Lower interest rates tend to spur investors to buy riskier assets, such as stocks, over bonds, gold and other havens. This time is no different, with expectations of looser monetary policy contributing to most of the stock market’s gains this year, analysts have said.
    Still, there is disagreement over how much the Fed should cut rates, leaving the stock market potentially vulnerable if the Fed fails to enact a more aggressive pace of rate cuts.
    Treasury yields pared some of their gains after the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Monday that inflation expectations a year and three years from now fell in August.
    Rising yields helped lift the S&P 500’s financials sector, which was one of the biggest gainers Monday, rising 1.4%.
    Beyond Monday’s broad gains, some individual stocks outpaced the broader market. Shares of AT&T jumped 2.7% after the activist investor Elliott Management disclosed a $3.2 billion stake in the company and released a letter to the board laying out a series of potential changes that it said could boost the stock.
    Elsewhere, the Stoxx Europe 600 slipped 0.3%. Data released Monday showed German exports unexpectedly rose in July, a bright spot following a string of negative economic data from Europe’s biggest economy, though analysts said concerns remained that U.S.-China trade tensions could affect the German economy.
    In commodities, Brent crude oil rose about 1.8% to $62.64 a barrel after Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman appointed Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, an experienced oil official and son of the country’s king, as head of the powerful energy ministry. Prince Abdulaziz is expected to continue OPEC’s efforts to bolster energy prices by cutting production.
    Regards,
    Ted
    Bloomberg Evening Briefing:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-09/your-evening-briefing
    MarketWatch:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-futures-point-higher-as-investors-look-to-central-banks-for-stimulus-2019-09-09/print
    WSJ:
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-tick-higher-on-china-stimulus-11568016549
    Bloomberg:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-08/asian-stocks-set-for-muted-start-to-the-week-markets-wrap?srnd=premium
    IBD:
    https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-extends-win-streak-5-big-stocks-rally/
    CNBC:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/09/dow-futures-move-higher-investors-wake-to-new-chinese-exports-data.html
    Reuters:
    https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/stimulus-hopes-buoy-wall-street-financials-lead-gains-idUSKCN1VU17Y
    U.K:
    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-stocks/uk-bluechips-give-up-gains-as-sterling-strengthens-idUKKCN1VU0KU
    Europe:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-stocks/european-stocks-close-down-as-london-lags-banks-shine-idUSKCN1VU0L6
    Asia:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/09/asia-markets-september-9-us-china-trade-china-economy-currencies.html
    Bonds:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/09/us-treasury-yields-higher-ahead-of-new-data.html
    Currencies:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/06/forex-markets-us-economic-data-in-focus.html
    Oil:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/09/oil-markets-saudi-arabia-in-focus.html
    Gold:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/09/gold-markets-monetary-policy-in-focus.html
    WSJ: Markets At A Glance:
    https://markets.wsj.com/us
    Major ETFs % Change:
    https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/etf-monitor
    SPDR's Sector Tracker:
    http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
    SPDR's Bloomberg Sector Performance Pie Chart:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/sectors
    Current Futures:
    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
  • Our New Portfolio Analysis Tool
    I am having trouble with the Portfolios tool. The first portfolio I entered had four funds. No problem. If I click on Portfolio 1 I am immediately taken to the Results. Getting back is a small problem as Results is the only function I have found on the new Premium site that does not open in a new tab. There is no way to go back to Portfolios except to click on that word in the menu. But OK, not a big problem. The second portfolio I entered had thirteen funds. I entered the percentages with decimal places. The portfolio was saved and accepted but clicking on Portfolio 2 produces no results. (clicking on Portfolio 1 still works). Then I changed the percentages to whole numbers and called it Portfolio 3. Clicking on that produces no results either. What am I doing wrong?
  • Why is M* so negative on IOFIX?
    IOFIX 10.44% 2.69% 14.04% 3.49% -0.87% 3.16 13.47
    @FD1000, you and Morningstar must have a different definition of maximum drawdown than me. -0.87% over the past three years?? I mean it declined 1.29% on just one day alone last November.
  • Why is M* so negative on IOFIX?
    Just to refresh people's memories: https://kiplinger.com/article/investing/T041-C009-S001-two-morgan-keegan-funds-crash-and-burn.html
    I am aware that the non-agency debt market has changes significantly since this point, but I do think liquidity in the bond market for mutual funds isn't discussed enough.
  • M*: Fund Upgrades & Downgrades For August
    FYI: Morningstar rated 149 strategies overall in August. Two of those strategies are new to coverage.
    Amid the updates, manager research analysts affirmed the Morningstar Analyst Ratings of 134 strategies, upgraded eight, and downgraded four. Analysts also placed one fund under review and added two funds to coverage. A select group of ratings are showcased below, followed by the full list of ratings for the month.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/944969/8-upgrades-highlight-august-ratings-changes
  • bondy diversification
    Since you're okay paying more for PDVAX (vs. PDIIX) to gain access to that fund in Fidelity, it seems that paying more for AKGAX (vs. ACGYX) would also be okay. A tad less expensive as well: AKGAX 1.08% (net), PDVAX 1.19%.
    http://financials.morningstar.com/fund/purchase-info.html?t=AKGAX&region=usa&culture=en-US
    https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/summary/01881M467
  • Is Any Mutual Fund Company Better Than Vanguard? 1 Comes Close
    Unfortunately, selling shares of DODIX to dollar cost average into, say DODBX would generate a taxable gain or loss each time ,since the net asset value of DODIX is not fixed at $1 unlike a Fidelity or Vanguard money market fund. Perhaps this is their way of limiting what they deem to be frequent or excessive trading.
  • Our New Portfolio Analysis Tool
    Thank you @Charles. Had lots of fun over the weekend. Portfolios is a very informative tool for visualizing changes in performance and risk parameters (Ulcer index and MFO Risk ranking) within a portfolio when low/non-correlating funds are used. If the funds have long enough record, one can see the full up and down cycle dated from Nov 2007 to August 2019. Very cool indeed.
  • Is Any Mutual Fund Company Better Than Vanguard? 1 Comes Close
    Any chance that D&C will offer a money market fund?
    Don’t hold your breath waiting. Have seen no indication.
    On that question, not sure what their gig is. Seemingly, being the savvy investors they are, they’d rather folks park cash in DODIX. That bothers me a bit. However, DODIX is quite conservatively run - probably out only about 3 years on the maturity curve at present. I don’t doubt that it will beat any money market fund hands-down over 5 and 10 year periods. But shorter term, has the potential for a couple lousy (negative) years.
  • Why is M* so negative on IOFIX?
    I also like to buy new hot funds and I don't care about the ER that much. I bought EIXIX earlier this year but sold after a few months when performance was going nowhere. I have talked with the manager and one of their directors and EIXIX invests mostly in RMBS of 2008 and prior + ST floaters interest MBS that do well when rates are going up. The managers are trying to balance out rates going down+up. I noticed the fund is doing well when rates are going up (which is unique for most bond funds) and not well when they are going down and why EIXIX has done very little in the last several months.
    My biggest category YTD used to be HY Munis but I sold a big portion a few weeks ago when momo got weaker and rates started to rebound after a huge rapid decline. I prefer Munis over higher-rated bond funds because they do better in rising rates. Fidelity doesn't let you buy muni funds in IRA but Schwab does. I used to have ORNAX in taxable + IRA but now only in taxable.
    YTD chart(link) of Multi(EIXIX,JMSIX) Higher-rated (USIBX) HY Muni(ORNAX)
  • Our New Portfolio Analysis Tool
    already put to good use, meaning one can create a portfolio of 4 funds or whatever and adjust their proportions while tracking UI changes (and other changes)
    in order to see for oneself how to get the most consistent longterm bang for the risk, so to speak
    (if it ever adds $10k cagr graphing over easily adjustable time periods it will put M* out of business, almost)
    just excellent hard work, excellent
  • Morningstar Fund Family 150
    Nice try Ted. But where's your link to the raw data?
    Why would I open a thread highlighting a link to a Barron's article that I can't read without a subscription? (A mouse over of the thread is all that's needed to reveal this.) You're right, I don't read current mutual fund threads that have no value to me.
    Besides, you posted a thread months ago that claimed that D&C was already the top family with 100% of its funds having 4 stars or 5 stars. (That was a statistical fluke, because most of the time DODFX is sitting at 3 stars, as it is now.)
    The thread you're referencing is just a followup and does not appear to offer anything new.