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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Investing in an inflationary environment
    @Crash,
    10,000 Management Consultants
    (one of my kids does that for work)
  • FGDFX - Fidelity Disruptor Fund
    I'm a fan of sector funds, in small pieces. They can become big pieces in the right environment.
    A few years ago, I had put some money in the Fidelity Biotech fund FBIOX. It hit a favorable spell and grew quickly. I decided the pace was unsustainable and took most of my money off the table (this is in my IRA). It dropped a lot soon thereafter -- lucky me.
    (BTW, it's doing well again, because of the hope for a Covid-19 vaccine I think.)
    I wish I had bailed out of FSELX (Select Semiconductors) in mid-February. The last year was boom times for it and I knew that our holdings had become too large a share of our portfolio, but resisted selling. "You gotta know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em".
    At the other end of the spectrum, I don't expect AKRIX to be so volatile.
    I'll probably open starter positions in the new Tech and Medicine Fidelity funds.
    David
  • FGDFX - Fidelity Disruptor Fund
    Now that Fidelity has no fund minimums, you could throw $50 or $100 at these funds and see how they perform !
  • FGDFX - Fidelity Disruptor Fund
    If this appeals at all, consider making a minimum investment and waiting three years. Then all investments will receive the lowest share class ER.
    This differs slightly from the way class B shares were handled by load funds. Traditionally any new B share you bought would have its own clock. After a certain number of years (typically 5-10) the share would automatically convert to the cheaper A class share.
    Which makes me surprised that Barron's considers "time based pricing" something new for the industry. Fidelity is simply converting shares from the initial share class to Loyalty Class 1 shares, and later to Loyalty Class 2 shares. Same idea as converting B shares to A shares based on time.
  • QCD Rollover?
    YOU have 60 days to return it from date of distribution, I believe I read. Although that may be from CARES implementation.
    (Already taken out your 2020 RMD but wish you hadn’t? You might be able to roll over distributions you’ve already taken for 2020, says Slott. If you've already received a distribution from your own IRA or one inherited from a spouse for 2020, you can roll it back into your IRA within 60 days of receipt. ]
    A couple of tweaks.
    The "classic" 60 day rule is that the clock starts from the date you receive the distribution, not from the date the distribution is made. It can take a few days to receive the check in the mail.
    https://www.irahelp.com/slottreport/6-facts-every-ira-owner-should-know-about-60-day-rollover-rule
    CARES extended the time from 60 days to three years, and allowed the money to be deposited back into an IRA in pieces. But these modifications apply only to the first $100K withdrawn, and then only if it was withdrawn because of a COVID-19 created need.
    The inherited IRA rule is not that you are rolling it back into the inherited IRA. It must be rolled over into an IRA owned by the beneficiary (spouse). As Kitces writes:
    (Nerd Note: The lone exception for beneficiaries would be for a spouse who chose to remain a beneficiary of the deceased spouse’s retirement account. In such an instance, they may be eligible to put the RMD back into their own retirement account, as a spousal rollover, using one of the methods described above.)

  • Investing in an inflationary environment
    Inflation... Hmmm... the dollar is ALWAYS smaller, where I live. Things are much more expensive, ALWAYS. People are getting "weeks to the gallon" through this crisis, and they're happy about it, both here and on the Mainland. Gas is down to just above $3 here. I just called the Canadian Pharmacy. Wanna talk about "inflation?" If I ordered my prescription at the local drugstore, my co-pay would be $132. Via the Canadian outfit? (Pay by credit card, of course) it's $26. Is that "inflation" or EXTORTION?
    Several incomes in our household, so prices never really cause pain. Where to invest? I'm thinking TECH. All the things the younger generation is already "into," but guys like me always shun. Dunno about single stocks. I leave it to the fund managers. Remote conferencing, the "cloud," every new gadget has a consumer-base ready and willing and anxious to buy it. I don't have to look any farther than my own kitchen table. And the little shaver? Already SO addicted to "getting lost in that hopeless little screen." (Leonard Cohen.) He's all of 3 years old. Around the table, each person who might happen to be there is on their own little hand-held device. Sometimes 4 of them. Conversation? Connection?
    The lesson here? The manufactured preoccupation with what that little screen is showing you is more important than the PEOPLE around you.
    "As a marginalized member of a spectator democracy, you choose your own dependencies.... Don't think of it as manufactured consent. Think of it as the Candy Everybody Wants."

  • Investing in an inflationary environment
    I see just as much chatter now about deflation as I do for inflation. But as far as inflation, the general go to places are TIPs, gold which you don't want, commodities or real estate.
    I'm still holding gold, IAU, and I have since late 2018, though I did trim some over the last couple weeks. Every time I've tried TIPs I seem to get burnt. So, unless we see strong indication and a starting trend, I'm not sure it's worth adjusting for right now. I do think deflation-recession might be a more probable outcome.
  • Investing in an inflationary environment
    "you got chewed up no matter what you did"
    Not if you bought decent tax-free munis yielding 12-14%. That worked great, until they called them after Volker had driven inflation down.
  • Bill Miller: This is one of the 5 greatest buying opportunities of my life
    By March of 2009, Miller's flagship had drawn down about 80 percent. He only drew down half that 11 years later. How does he get the new capital to take advantage?
    Oh, but this, gotta love: He cited economist John Maynard Keynes who once said it was “the duty of every serious investor to suffer grievous losses with great equanimity.”
  • Bill Miller: This is one of the 5 greatest buying opportunities of my life
    A couple of big name fund guys are bullish on stock market opportunities...
    Miller said only four other times have stocks have been as attractive: In 1973-1974 when the Vietnam War was going on and Richard Nixon had resigned as president; in 1982 after Mexico defaulted on its debt; in 1987 following Black Monday; and in 2008-09 during the last financial crisis. "If you missed the other four great buying opportunities, the fifth one is now front and center," wrote Miller, who is now the chief investment officer and founder of Miller Value Partners in Baltimore.
    Justin Thomson, a chief investment officer for T. Rowe Price Group Inc. (NASDAQ: TROW) who oversees international equities, also offered some guidance to help investors thrive.....he sees a buying opportunity...."I should emphasize that truly great companies are rare," Thomson wrote in a white paper. "Opportunities to buy great companies at great prices are even rarer. We are currently at one of those moments."
    https://bizjournals.com/baltimore/news/2020/04/21/bill-miller-this-is-one-of-the-5-greatest-buying.html?ana=yahoo&yptr=yahoo
  • Investing in an inflationary environment
    Howdy,
    I won't talk about the metals as you've covered it. One of the oldest and most important (to me) quotes I've ever read was from the Elder Baron Rothschild. He said to guard against economic downturns, one should have 1/3 of their wealth in securities, 1/3 in real estate and 1/3 in rare art. Note that he's talking Wealth, not your asset allocation for your 401K. Also, you can substitute many things for Rare Art but in ain't Beanie Babies.
    Take a few minutes and run your own numbers. Now wipe off your computer screen. Most people will be something like 80/15/5 . . . or worse.
    I've been working at it for years now and still have never gotten to 33/33/33. That said, I'm better today than when I first looked at it.
    I know it doesn't answer your question but it may serve as some strategic guidance.
    Good luck,
    rono
  • Investing in an inflationary environment
    Question for the board...where would you invest in an inflationary environment?
    I'm of a certain age where I remember investing my earnings from pumping gas and changing oil at the local Texaco in CDs that were paying over 12% in the early 80s...very tough environment, lot of inflation, high unemployment, attorney's driving taxi cabs...no job was beneath anyone...
    fast forward to about 10 years ago when still attending a corporate torture chamber on a daily basis when during a water cooler stop I asked one of the gray beards what was it really like during the late 70's early 80's with the high inflation, I was to young to really understand it...he told me that "there was absolutely no where to hide pertaining to your investments"...you got chewed up no matter what you did
    What is the thinking now? You could argue that there will be reduced demand for goods and labor so how can we have inflation but with all the money being put into the system by the gov't, I anticipate we will have a situation where we switch between severe deflation and severe inflation...where would you invest?
    I wouldn't touch any Gold ETF...I can see that going poof as what do you really own there..can't get bullion at a decent price without large mark up...real estate...too many folks unable to pay rent....
    Ideas/thoughts?
    Everyone stay healthy!
    Baseball Fan
  • Mutual Fund Company Rant
    I gotta tell you, for the cheapest go-to, "shareholder first" fund company out there, Vanguard is sure the most bureaucratic fund company out there. Trying to do a simple XFER by mail is a complete nightmare.
    And...speaking of transfer nightmares, Dodge & Cox has a pretty miserable record here as well. Yet again, my wife tried to move money into D&C from another fund family and...wait for it...D&C got the transaction all spun around and mixed up. You think that for money coming in, they'd be all over themselves trying to get it right the first time. This is about the third time in the past year or two that they've messed something up.
    Please, Vanguard, D&C, Royce, others -- get this right.

    Not a rant when it's correct.
    I had a long discussion about D&C a few weeks ago, investors can't distinguish between D&C as a great company to lagging performance with higher volatility.
    I had an account at Vanguard in the 90". One day I placed an order to buy their index fund at 9 AM. At 10 AM I decided to cancel it but I couldn't, so I called a VG rep and he said that you can't cancel it by design. In 2 days I liquidated my account and transferred it to Fidelity. Several years ago I transferred most of it to Schwab because they are better. VG lower expenses are meaningless or don't exist compared to Schwab and if companies realized that Schwab Target funds at ER=0.08% are cheaper than VG at 0.09 maybe they will start switching their 401K to Schwab.
    VG is a dinosaur.
    Curious why you think Schwab is better than Fidelity?
  • Mutual Fund Company Rant
    I gotta tell you, for the cheapest go-to, "shareholder first" fund company out there, Vanguard is sure the most bureaucratic fund company out there. Trying to do a simple XFER by mail is a complete nightmare.
    And...speaking of transfer nightmares, Dodge & Cox has a pretty miserable record here as well. Yet again, my wife tried to move money into D&C from another fund family and...wait for it...D&C got the transaction all spun around and mixed up. You think that for money coming in, they'd be all over themselves trying to get it right the first time. This is about the third time in the past year or two that they've messed something up.
    Please, Vanguard, D&C, Royce, others -- get this right.
    Not a rant when it's correct.
    I had a long discussion about D&C a few weeks ago, investors can't distinguish between D&C as a great company to lagging performance with higher volatility.
    I had an account at Vanguard in the 90". One day I placed an order to buy their index fund at 9 AM. At 10 AM I decided to cancel it but I couldn't, so I called a VG rep and he said that you can't cancel it by design. In 2 days I liquidated my account and transferred it to Fidelity. Several years ago I transferred most of it to Schwab because they are better. VG lower expenses are meaningless or don't exist compared to Schwab and if companies realized that Schwab Target funds at ER=0.08% are cheaper than VG at 0.09 maybe they will start switching their 401K to Schwab.
    VG is a dinosaur.
  • Mutual Fund Company Rant
    We have been Vanguard customers since at least 1985. We have the majority of our investments at Vanguard. I have had a large number of widely varying types of transactions and interactions with Vanguard employees. The vast majority have been overwhelmingly positive and have completely satisfied my needs. No institution established my humans can expect to be perfect, but Vanguard comes as close as you could reasonably expect from a mutual fund company.
  • QCD Rollover?
    It's an interesting idea, but I have my doubts about whether it would work. In order to make a QCD, the money goes directly from the IRA to the charity. It's something like a direct rollover where the IRA sends you a check, but one made payable to the new IRA.
    Since you never have possession of the money (either with a QCD or a direct rollover), ISTM there's nothing for you to put back into an IRA. I've not researched this, so this is purely speculation. If you find out anything more encouraging, please let us know.
    FWIW, the CARES act allows one to take up to three years to do a "60 day rollover", if the cash was withdrawn because of a COVID-19-created need. This is "limited" to $100K.
  • Stocks Soar After Fed Announce Open Ended QE
    Good morning. As I write ... Today is looking better as the stock futures are up across the board in the States, Europe and Asia. Over the past two days there has been a lot of selling as the money feed in the barometer moved from a reading of 63 down to 33 with the VIX rising above 40 from the mid 30's. However, the short volume in the S&P 500 declined from the low 70's to the low 50's as valuations pulled back. This is good. For me, having more than a full allocation to equities all I am doing is just watching and pondering the best asset allocation for me to run with and not venturing to far form my 20/40/40 base allocation. I'm thinking that stocks will provide the better upside between now and year end so I'll probally stay equity heavy at about 45%, income at about 40% and cash at about 15%. With this, I'm now left to buy in the income area of my portfolio by about 2% and reduce equities by another 2% based upon current valuations and this leaves me some cash that I can play with in the markets without drawing it below the 10%/12% range.
    Have a Great Day ... be safe ... and, I wish all ... "Good Investing."