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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Morningstar Fund Family 150
    @msf: I already linked this as part of the " Is Any Mutual Fund Company Better Than Vanguard? 1 Comes Close" just a few links below yours! Looks to me like you don't read current mutual funds articles on the board.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/52690/is-any-mutual-fund-company-better-than-vanguard-1-comes-close#latest
  • Morningstar Fund Family 150
    Twice a year, Morningstar publishes the Fund Family 150 report, an update on the 150 largest U.S. fund families. Of the 777 fund families in the U.S., these fund families account for 99% of the $19.3 trillion invested in U.S. funds and ETFs.
    150 pages of reports (a page per family), plus various rankings of families (inflows, largest number of medalist winners, largest percentage of AUM in 4 and 5 star funds). Methodology description.
    https://morningstardirect.morningstar.com/clientcomm/DueDiligenceReports/FundFamily150.pdf
    Also contains a link to a data spreadsheet so that you can play around with the numbers yourself.
    https://morningstardirect.morningstar.com/clientcomm/DueDiligenceReports/FundFamily150_2019_Q2.xlsm
    That is important, as you may disagree with how M* applies its data to come up with family ratings. For example, DoubleLine has the highest percentage (89%) of AUM in 4 and 5 star funds (concentrated in two funds). But the family as a whole is given a neutral rating.
  • Paul Merriman: Why Do These Two Nearly Identical Fidelity Funds Have Such Different Performance?
    Just another article about how index funds must be better than actively managed funds. He does not appear to have a real interest in looking at Fidelity's date funds:
    "As I was reviewing the list of investment options in a reader’s 401(k) plan, I realized that Fidelity offers two different versions of its target-date funds."
    Must have been an intensive review, because he missed three other series of Fidelity target date funds: Managed Payout, Simplicity RMD, and its newest series, Freedom Blend funds (more on that below).
    Fidelity 2020 Target date funds (five series)
    "Here are two mutual funds managed by the same company, with identical goals. The only apparent difference is active vs. passive management."
    Apparently, a 1-2% difference in allocations between the two sets of funds wasn't apparent to him. Here are M*'s reports on the two Freedom series he discusses. The first row of numbers under the glide path figure in each report are the equity percentages held by the series for each target year.
    M* Freedom Target-Date Fund Series Report (12/31/2018)
    M* Freedom Index Target-Date Fund series Report (12/31/2018)
    From the Index series report:
    Despite the notable cost advantage, each Freedom Index fund lagged its Freedom series counterpart since the Freedom Index series' late-2009 launch through December 2018; the funds underperformed by 15-73 basis points annualized. The absence of active management and certain subasset classes, like high-yield bonds, from Freedom Index contributed to these re-
    sults.
    Whoops. At least Merriman's column is labeled "Opinion".
    Regarding the Freedom Blend Funds (from Barron's, no subscription needed for the article):
    Actively managed funds will comprise a bigger slice of the pie in areas where the markets are less efficient and active managers can add more value, says Andrew Dierdorf, co-manager of the Freedom Funds. That will primarily be in small-caps, high-yield bonds, floating-rate loans, and emerging markets. The funds’ underlying exposure to large-cap equities and government fixed income will be more index-oriented, he says.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/fidelitys-latest-gambit-for-your-retirement-savings-1536247498
  • Why is M* so negative on IOFIX?
    I have owned IOFIX twice for several months. IOFIX is the only fund in my watch list with much higher volatility than the category every several months with no apparent reason which scars me.
    See YTD chart of IOFIX+JMSIX. Look at 02/2019 where IOFIX was down -0.4...on 04/2019 down -0,8%...08/2019 up more than 2%. A bond fund that can go up more than 2% in just 2 weeks can also go down.
    PV shows that IOFIX has an amazing risk/reward long term (link) for 3 year performance but YTD not so much.
    Portfolio CAGR Stdev Best Year Worst Year Max. Drawdown Sharpe Ratio Sortino Ratio
    PIMIX 5.34% 1.91% 8.60% 0.58% -1.11% 1.95 4.01
    PUCZX 6.89% 2.24% 9.22% 1.75% -1.13% 2.38 6.63
    PDIIX 5.99% 3.45% 11.10% -0.99% -2.23% 1.31 2.8
    IOFIX 10.44% 2.69% 14.04% 3.49% -0.87% 3.16 13.47
  • Paul Merriman: Why Do These Two Nearly Identical Fidelity Funds Have Such Different Performance?
    FYI: One of the best tools for working people who are saving for retirement is the target-date fund.
    Most 401(k) and similar plans offer this option, which provides a modest amount of diversification among equity asset classes as well as a built-in mechanism for gradually reducing the risk of the portfolio as retirement gets closer.
    But not all target-date retirement funds are the same, and I recently discovered an interesting comparison among Fidelity’s offerings.
    As I was reviewing the list of investment options in a reader’s 401(k) plan, I realized that Fidelity offers two different versions of its target-date funds.
    One version is what I think is the wrong choice for most investors. But this one brings more profits to Fidelity Investments. Not surprisingly, it’s the version that’s offered in most Fidelity-run retirement plans.
    The other version is the right choice for investors. But it’s less profitable for Fidelity, sort of an “under-the-counter” product that’s rarely offered to retirement plan participants.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/target-date-wars-fidelity-vs-fidelity-2019-08-07/print
    M* Snapshot FNSDX:
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/fnsdx/quote
    M* Snapshot FDEWX:
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/fdewx/quote
  • bondy diversification
    DIY investors including myself have a tendency to ignore load families. While I've paid attention to a few (e.g. Franklin Templeton, American Funds), Lord Abbett is one I know virtually nothing about. The fund just showed up with good numbers in what seemed to be your search space and NTF.
    Based on M*'s family profile (legacy page here) Lord Abbett seems to be concentrated in bond funds, and pretty good at that. As before, that's just from looking at a couple of aggregate figures. I've no particular insight to offer.
  • bondy diversification
    just did a prelim check, LBNDX tracks PDVAX very closely over the years, slightly above, slightly below, depending on period; marginally superior as you note except oddly inferior @ 1y
    Lipper gives them each a 2 for preservation, otherwise identically rated except LA much cheaper ... so one might be able to infer that Pimco leverage accounts for the higher ER, while adding little or no value ?
  • Sharpie Makes Its Mark As A Geography Lesson
    Hi @Old_Joe et al
    I recall that Roy let this stand and stay in place at FundAlarm; as there were periods when he allowed song titles and lyric to be posted to reflect market overviews through this medium.
    The below lyric travels into my mind from various scenarios over the years; and is more so reflective with current political scenarios now.
    I suspect some of the word plays at the time had to with ongoing sloppy markets after the melt. Their were still enough investors, large and small who were still wondering where everything was going to land.
    As for today, this fits more closely with politics; from which the ramifications continue to have large impacts upon various investing market types.
    Perhaps I'm merely fitting the words to what only I see or feel. Have a go for yourself.
    Hell, I may be starting phase one of becoming senile.
    The lyric eventually repeats, but I have placed the entirety.
    Take care and good evening,
    Catch
    Stuck in the Middle With You
    Stealers Wheel, 1973, Jerry Rafferty (RIP)
    Well I don't know why I came here tonight,
    I got the feeling that something ain't right,
    I'm so scared in case I fall off my chair,
    And I'm wondering how I'll get down the stairs,
    Clowns to the left of me,
    Jokers to the right, here I am,
    Stuck in the middle with you
    Yes I'm stuck in the middle with you,
    And I'm wondering what it is I should do,
    It's so hard to keep this smile from my face,
    Losing control, yeah, I'm all over the place,
    Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right,
    Here I am, stuck in the middle with you
    Well you started out with nothing,
    And you're proud that you're a self made man,
    And your friends, they all come crawlin,
    Slap you on the back and say,
    Please, please
    Trying to make some sense of it all,
    But I can see that it makes no sense at all,
    Is it cool to go to sleep on the floor,
    'Cause I don't think that I can take anymore
    Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right,
    Here I am, stuck in the middle with you
    Well you started out with nothing,
    And you're proud that you're a self made man,
    And your friends, they all come crawlin,
    Slap you on the back and say,
    Please, please
    Well I don't know why I came here tonight,
    I got the feeling that something ain't right,
    I'm so scared in case I fall off my chair,
    And I'm wondering how I'll get down the stairs,
    Clowns to the left of me,
    Jokers to the right, here I am,
    Stuck in the middle with you,
    Yes I'm stuck in the middle with you,
    Stuck in the middle with you, here I am stuck in the middle with you
  • bondy diversification
    I can appreciate your interest in buying a fund at Merrill or Fidelity (those being the two brokerages at which you have accounts). Still, giving up 40 basis points for convenience (PDIIX has an ER that's 1/3 lower than PDVAX's, 0.79% vs. 1.19%) seems like a lot.
    http://financials.morningstar.com/fund/purchase-info.html?t=PDIIX&region=usa&culture=en-US
    Not quite sure what "it" is that AGG and FADMX do not do. Nor what "ongoing strength" you see in FSIFX, which has underperformed its multisector peers in every calendar year of its existence, starting in 2014.
    Disregarding the particular types of bonds PONAX holds, given its sub ½ year duration it faces a relative headwind when interest rates are dropping. And this year rates have fallen like a stone.
    So a question is: do you expect rates to continue to plummet? If so, then sure, swap horses. If you don't expect a severe decline to continue, then it's more a matter of how the portfolio is invested (i.e. the yield it gets on its holdings after accounting for defaults). And if you expect a rate reversal (rates rising again), that would seem to lend it a tailwind.
    If what you're looking for is an NTF multisector fund (inferred from your mentions of FSIFX, PDVAX, and FADMX) that has outperformed PDVAX, there's LBNDX. Same duration, better performance YTD, 3 year, 5 year (roughly the period since a major management overhaul for LBNDX). And same ER as PDIIX (with an insignificantly higher SEC yield). And it does it without leverage (Diversifed Income's bond exposure is 162% of AUM).
    Of course this is all based on each fund's aggregate figures and doesn't consider what's inside the funds.
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD - September
    @MikeW, For now I'm staying overweight equities by +5% with the overweight being mostly held in equity dividend funds which are a part of the growth & income area of my portfolio. Now being overweight equity (at the max allowed within my asset allocation) is the primary reason I'm closing the spiff. After all, fixed income is paying next to nothing so dividend paying equity looks attractive, to me.
    In short words, I need to trim equity to stay within the confins of my asset allocation. And, based upon Old_Skeet's current market barometer reading (of overvalued for the S&P 500 Index) now is a good time for me to trim. Can stocks go higher in the nearterm? Perhaps ... and, indeed I hope so. However, I look for them to be pretty much news event driven ... and, then there is the FOMC wizards that will also play a part in stock market movement based upon their rate settings.
    For now, I'm still with my thoughts that they went to far and to fast in their recent upward rate increase movement; and, governing against a Presidential request to keep them low while he deals with trade issues. In short words, the FOMC wizards threw stock market investors (and our President) under the bus back in December. After all, and since then, investors have left stocks and moved to bonds with interest rates moving from about 3.25% downward to about 1.5% (US10YrT) as investors sought cover in bonds.
    I know I reduced equities within my portfolio from 50% to 40%, in good part, because of the FOMC's rate increase move; but, also for an aged based rebalance. I would have kept my equity allocation at 50% had the FOMC not been so aggressive with their rate increase campaign. Seems, to me, the head wizard might be heading for a fall should the FOMC stall out the economy more so than the President. From my perspective, most folks realize that we have to somehow deal with China because of their past unfair trade practices.
    And, if our government encourages off shore production, of targeted goods for shipment to the US, be moved to other countries from China ... Well, then so be it. After all, we buy more from them than they buy from us.
    And, make no mistake FOMC wizards ... stall the stock market and consumer spending will decline putting pressure on the economy. After all, consumer spending is what drives our economy. Just this last December, I put off buying a new vehicle because of the decline in the stock market associated with your rate increase campaign. And, to date, I have yet to make this purchase.
    Yep, and again FOMC wizards, in my book you went to far and too fast with your rate increase campaign and also against a Presidential request not to raise rates while our governemnt was dealing with foreign trade issues with China. This put undue pressure on the stock market and the economy. Since we got a new head FOMC wizard, things have not gone well. I sure wish uncle Ben and aunt Janet were still minding the store.
  • Why is M* so negative on IOFIX?
    @junkster I was writing about funds back when those studies on new funds came out and a few things come to mind:
    1. In the 1990s many new small cap and growth funds were launched that benefitted from extra IPO allocation to hot dot.com stocks like Pets.com and
    Webvan. Van Wagoner , Turner Microcap Growth, Strong and Janus funds come to mind. Some of them ultimately got in trouble for juicing their new fund returns with more shares of these IPOs than other funds at the shop and not acknowledging that it was IPOs doing the heavy lifting and that once the funds grew in size the IPO effect wouldn’t last. In fact, many of those IPOs subsequently flamed out. In any case, times have changed and we no longer have a 1990s IPO market for new funds to benefit from.
    2. I am fairly certain those Kobren and Charles Schwab studies did not adjust for survivorship bias. I would have to check but I did write about them back then—favorably too I believe—and I recall no mention of survivor bias. Please provide any evidence of the new fund effect that adjusts for survivor bias today if you have it. I doubt there is any evidence for it as I see bad new funds liquidated every day. In fact, their liquidations are tracked here. Nor is this to say I am against new funds. But I think newness must be accompanied with additional quantitative and qualitative research, the kind David does on this site. Fees should be part of that research in my view, and there is far more evidence of fees importance to performance than the new fund effect.
    3. Think of the kind of fund this is and what it’s investing in—non-agency debt. That debt has in the past become extraordinarily illiquid during times of market stress. And funds that invested in it have been crushed due to illiquidity. I suggest MFOers look up the Regions Morgan Keegan funds if they doubt the risks of a liquidity crunch. Such a sector is not the best fit for a mutual fund that must provide daily liquidity in my view especially if the fund concentrates in that sector to a high degree over more liquid mortgage bonds. The sector meanwhile is shrinking each year.
    4. At $2 billion in assets this fund collects $30 million in fees a year. At $3 billion it collects $45 million. The team required to investigate this one sector of the market must be highly compensated with that fee. Are they earning it with good Individual security selection or by concentrating in the riskiest sectors of the mortgage market more so than their lower cost peers. Regions Morgan Keegan once had a great record too before the housing bust by taking such risks.
    5. In a highly illiquid sector money managers often use a pricing system called fair value for estimating securities value in the portfolio. That can make the fund seem a lot more stable than it actually is and hides risk. It also creates an incentive for fraud in how securities prices are marked.
    #1 pretty much sums it up and very close to what I wrote in my book. Half my profits in 98 and 99 came from the new fund effect in tech and small cap growth because of allotments to hot IPOs. I can think of a few new funds from Janus and INVESCO that were up 15% to 25% in a month. Even used Strong’s new high yield fund to my advantage in 96 where it beat not only all its peers but the S&P. I also exploited datelining - probably the closest thing to a free lunch you could ever find on Wall Street. I make no bones about luck being on my side in the 90s. Funny thing about luck as I have also been lucky since 2000 too, especially the luckiest trade of my lifetime - junk bonds on 12/16/2008 when the Fed rang the loudest bell I have ever heard on Wall Street. Probably explains why The Luck Factor by Max Gunther is one of top three favorite books.
    As for IOFIX, I just think they are sitting on a gold mine in the legacy non agency rmbs they have remaining in their portfolio. Can’t think of any time since the Great Recession where there has been any illiquidity in those bonds. Can’t think of where there could be any wave of defaults from those legacy bonds issued between 04 and 07 especially from the equity that has now built up over the years by the homeowners behind such loans. But that is a story for another time. My main concern is IOFIX becomes a groupthink fund. I also worry what the managers do for an encore in the next couple years as the legacy market shrinks even further and they no longer have that to juice their returns. I am not wedded to IOFIX. If you read the archives you will see I went into junk bonds at the end of December but they petered out five months later and went back into other areas of Bondland.
  • How Many Mutual Funds Are Too Many?
    Extensive research shows that 99.6% of the time this topic is discussed on MFO a major recession starts within 36 hours.
    Thanks @Old_Joe ...... :)
    If I have time I’ll spend couple bucks and purchase the WSJ this is out of so can read it. My prejudice is showing through on this one, but for the life of me I’ve never been able to understand why the number of funds matters much to the average investor - as Dave Ramsey suggests. More ain’t better. If it were, than having 5 of Hussman’s would be better than owning one from T. Rowe.
    But it’s the final return that matters over time. So if you own 5 or 10 exceptional funds that march to different drummers over the short term but get the job done over 10, 15, 25 years, than why is that inferior to owning fewer? And this question seems to beg the larger question of what is the investor’s situation in life and what is he attempting to accomplish through his investments?
    Some folks have legit reasons to own a larger number of funds. Might have to do with estate planning, tax situation, what’s offered (now or previously) by their employer. Personally, I can’t come to grips with handing everything over to a single fund house. Would rather have a few different outfits managing my money. Now, the likelihood one of these guys will turn into idiots overnight or do something unscrupulous with my money is slight. But we don’t carry a life jacket in our boat expecting it to sink, or keep a fire extinguisher in our home expecting to ever use it.
    For those so moved, Google the subject. I’ll guarantee you’ll find 2 or 3 dozen articles on the question in rapid succession - a good many from intelligent sources. So, the question gets a lot of play for whatever reason.
  • How Many Mutual Funds Are Too Many?
    How many times has this been discussed here in the past? And curious whether those discussions have altered anyone’s behavior in regard to buying and selling funds?
    FWIW - Dave Ramsey weighs in ...
    https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=video+how+many+mutual+funds+is+too+many?&&view=detail&mid=736C33EDCC55E0613158736C33EDCC55E0613158&&FORM=VDRVRV
  • Why is M* so negative on IOFIX?
    @junkster I was writing about funds back when those studies on new funds came out and a few things come to mind:
    1. In the 1990s many new small cap and growth funds were launched that benefitted from extra IPO allocation to hot dot.com stocks like Pets.com and
    Webvan. Van Wagoner , Turner Microcap Growth, Strong and Janus funds come to mind. Some of them ultimately got in trouble for juicing their new fund returns with more shares of these IPOs than other funds at the shop and not acknowledging that it was IPOs doing the heavy lifting and that once the funds grew in size the IPO effect wouldn’t last. In fact, many of those IPOs subsequently flamed out. In any case, times have changed and we no longer have a 1990s IPO market for new funds to benefit from.
    2. I am fairly certain those Kobren and Charles Schwab studies did not adjust for survivorship bias. I would have to check but I did write about them back then—favorably too I believe—and I recall no mention of survivor bias. Please provide any evidence of the new fund effect that adjusts for survivor bias today if you have it. I doubt there is any evidence for it as I see bad new funds liquidated every day. In fact, their liquidations are tracked here. Nor is this to say I am against new funds. But I think newness must be accompanied with additional quantitative and qualitative research, the kind David does on this site. Fees should be part of that research in my view, and there is far more evidence of fees importance to performance than the new fund effect.
    3. Think of the kind of fund this is and what it’s investing in—non-agency debt. That debt has in the past become extraordinarily illiquid during times of market stress. And funds that invested in it have been crushed due to illiquidity. I suggest MFOers look up the Regions Morgan Keegan funds if they doubt the risks of a liquidity crunch. Such a sector is not the best fit for a mutual fund that must provide daily liquidity in my view especially if the fund concentrates in that sector to a high degree over more liquid mortgage bonds. The sector meanwhile is shrinking each year.
    4. At $2 billion in assets this fund collects $30 million in fees a year. At $3 billion it collects $45 million. The team required to investigate this one sector of the market must be highly compensated with that fee. Are they earning it with good Individual security selection or by concentrating in the riskiest sectors of the mortgage market more so than their lower cost peers. Regions Morgan Keegan once had a great record too before the housing bust by taking such risks.
    5. In a highly illiquid sector money managers often use a pricing system called fair value for estimating securities value in the portfolio. That can make the fund seem a lot more stable than it actually is and hides risk. It also creates an incentive for fraud in how securities prices are marked.
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD - September
    @Derf, Nope. I have held the position for more than 30 days. And, these are C shares. However, I'll pay a 1% commission on shares sold held less than 1 year. Like I wrote, I'll net 3% from this trade.
  • How Many Mutual Funds Are Too Many?
    FYI: Some investors have so many, their portfolios become like index funds with hefty fees.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-many-mutual-funds-are-too-many-11567784875?mod=md_mf_news
  • Rollovers Are All Bad! Use Only Direct Transfers
    Here's the Pub 590A cite (very similar to what you wrote):
    Application of one-rollover-per-year limitation. You can make only one rollover from an IRA to another (or the same) IRA in any 1-year period regardless of the number of IRAs you own. The limit will apply by aggregating all of an individual's IRAs, including SEP and SIMPLE IRAs as well as traditional and Roth IRAs, effectively treating them as one IRA for purposes of the limit. However, trustee-to-trustee transfers between IRAs aren’t limited and rollovers from traditional IRAs to Roth IRAs (conversions) aren’t limited.
    https://www.irs.gov/publications/p590a#en_US_2018_publink100024687
  • Rollovers Are All Bad! Use Only Direct Transfers
    Hi @msf
    You noted: "(Since this was a 403(b) to IRA rollover, it would not have been constrained by the once per year rule, though that didn't matter here.)"
    From working with a friend a few years ago, this is my understanding related to what you wrote:
    IRA one-rollover-per-year rule
    Beginning after January 1, 2015, you can make only one rollover from an IRA to another (or the same) IRA in any 12-month period, regardless of the number of IRAs you own. The one-per year limit does not apply to: rollovers from traditional IRAs to Roth IRAs (conversions)Jun 18, 2019

    My understanding of what your note is not: Example:
    If one had several life time jobs, that resulted in 2, 401k's and 2, 403b's; this person could perform direct transfers/rollovers of these accounts into an existing traditional IRA without violation of the once-per-year rule.
    As I understand, the once-per-year rule applies only to traditional IRA's, YES ???
    Thank you for your clarification.
    Take care,Catch
  • Rollovers Are All Bad! Use Only Direct Transfers
    That is why you work with a good brokerage so that direct roller take place between the former employer and the brokerage. In the meanwhile the customer never touch the 401(K) fund to avoid triggering several tax events.
    Fidelity has helped to make these rollover transfer easily especially when their offices are widely available in large cities. They handled all paperwork, funds were wired and the rollover account set up within 2 weeks. Schwab also have many offices and should do equally as well.